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  1. #8041

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tazirai View Post
    As a black man. I refuse to vote for Bloomberg. I'm just not. If Bernie isn't a Democrat, then what the hell is Mike?
    Never liked or trusted him. Dudes a Republican and the Blue no matter who crowd is starting to love the guy buying the election.
    I'm good.
    It's reassuring that you don't think another term of Trump is that big a deal.

  2. #8042
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    Quote Originally Posted by PaulBullion View Post
    In a primary contest?
    Yeah..... because what news outlets like MSNBC are doing now is the same peddling of election illiteracy that people there (and on here) thought about Trump in 2016. The data suggests that as canidates drop out, there's not going to be a majority alternative to Bernie. He will get enough people of the fallen to add to his lead as others make a gambit to absorb those voters.

    It's like this. Let's take nationally polls

    Sanders: 23.6
    Biden: 19.2
    Bloomberg: 14.2
    Warren: 12.4
    Buttigieg: 10.5
    Klobuchar: 4.6
    Yang: 3.0 (out)
    Steyer: 1.8
    Gabbard: 1.6

    Now there's a lot of people that don't understand elections that are going to say "well Bernie is leading, but the rest of the field has 67.3 points which destroys him so once they settle on an alternative he'll be taken down". Same concept was said with Trump. But with Bernie polling so well head to head against everyone, it's suggesting that he's going to still pull enough as people drop out to maintain a lead. Like if Biden drops out, yeah maybe some of them settle on Buttigieg or Klobuchar or Bloomberg. But enough are going to either stay home and not support them or are going to go for Bernie, that when the dust settles, Bernie's lead will just grow a little bit more towards a majority even if everyone else increases a little with it.

    See if you want an alternative to him, what you want those polls to say is that if it's just him vs Biden or him vs Buttigieg (or anyone) that he loses, because that would indicate that he's just kinda holding onto his own base of support, won't grow, and people will rally around his opponent. That's not what the polls are saying. They are saying as people leave and the options get limited, he's going to grow support.

    Now that's not definite as races change and vary. For instance the worst thing that could happen to Bernie is that people not named Warren drop out and she starts growing back into a lead where she can challenge him. But also because primaries are fixed, he's going to spend the rest of that time racking up wins until then and he might have enough of a lead where he just seems inevitable by that point.

  3. #8043
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    Quote Originally Posted by PaulBullion View Post
    I don't think a national head to head poll gives you that info at all. It's an exercise in futility, and I do notice that somebody named Sanders was involved in creating that poll.
    Canidates don't aim to make internal polls that tell them bad information. They actually need to campaign off it. Clinton's internal polls were far more accurate and harsh on her than all the polls saying she would win leading up to the election. They are on the ground and actually want to defend against every possible inevitability

  4. #8044
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    Quote Originally Posted by KNIGHT OF THE LAKE View Post
    I think Biden should win SC. But there's a reason he skipped Nevada and went there and why polling is looking poorly for him there. Internal polling. It's been telegraphed for awhile. Biden's problem now is that SC might not mean much when they get there because you'll have one guy with 3 wins and he'll only get a really red state that isn't even helpful for a general while he is perceived as someone who is blowing it going into Super Tuesday.
    Well, I wouldn't characterize skipping a state and finishing second as "poorly". Now, if he drops down below second as he has in the first two contests, then that adjective is fitting.

    South Carolina may be a red state without much value to Democrats, but the voting base there IS valuable to Democrats. It'll be our first chance to gauge where black voters are on this contest. Sanders getting his ass kicked there, despite being the front runner, would be a bad sign. Buttigieg getting his ass kicked there, despite being 1B to Sanders' 1A, is a horrible sign for him. Biden doing anything but winning is the end of his campaign. Where black voters go in the wake of the first three elections is going to be very telling. All of the candidates have a lot to gain and a lot to lose.

    I predict Sanders has a comfortable win in NV, Biden with a better finish, and South Carolina puts us all back to the starting line again. (Bernie and Pete will have banked delegates, but the perception of front runner will be a toss up)

  5. #8045

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mister Mets View Post
    It's reassuring that you don't think another term of Trump is that big a deal.
    Because some consider Bloomberg and Trump the same.
    BB

  6. #8046
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    Quote Originally Posted by Theleviathan View Post
    Well, I wouldn't characterize skipping a state and finishing second as "poorly". Now, if he drops down below second as he has in the first two contests, then that adjective is fitting.

    South Carolina may be a red state without much value to Democrats, but the voting base there IS valuable to Democrats. It'll be our first chance to gauge where black voters are on this contest. Sanders getting his ass kicked there, despite being the front runner, would be a bad sign. Buttigieg getting his ass kicked there, despite being 1B to Sanders' 1A, is a horrible sign for him. Biden doing anything but winning is the end of his campaign. Where black voters go in the wake of the first three elections is going to be very telling. All of the candidates have a lot to gain and a lot to lose.

    I predict Sanders has a comfortable win in NV, Biden with a better finish, and South Carolina puts us all back to the starting line again. (Bernie and Pete will have banked delegates, but the perception of front runner will be a toss up)
    I would characterize it as poorly if you were just leading it most of the race and the polling just changed a week before. You literally were arguing that Sanders had a dissapointing win in NH despite the fact that he didn't even enter the lead in it until like a month before. There's no way to spin a loss as positive in state you were actually winning pretty much the entire time leading up to it.

    I don't see much value in South Carolina. Black voters are not a monolith. Southern black voters especially are not the same black voters in blue states, coastal states, midwestern states or in more urban areas. It's a different dynamic and polling generally shows them to be more risk averse. They are very different voting block and they don't speak for all black people. Also unlike most of the other blocks of black voters, the ones in the South also aren't going to contribute towards a general election victory. Quite the opposite. SC matters more so in that it will show if Biden is even viable anymore, because he needs a big win there. If Bloomberg cuts into that at all, he's done and fucked. The fact that Biden is at 26.5 there and Sanders is at 20 should scare the ever loving shit out of him because if Sanders does win Nevada, that's going to be much tighter and he does not want Sanders looking remotely strong in the biggest gimmie state he has that he ditched most of the opening states of the primary to stake his claim in.

  7. #8047
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    Quote Originally Posted by Billy Batson View Post
    Because some consider Bloomberg and Trump the same.
    Bloomberg is very problematic. If you were going to build a Democratic version of Trump, it would come pretty close to Bloomberg. He has multiple sexual misconduct cases against him, he has a very archaic view on inequality and has said problematic things about poor people, he put in place racially insensitive policies in a blunt fashion without thinking of the horrors they have caused, he speaks off the cuff in a very dangerous manner on race issues, also he's been a Republican or Independent the last 20 years (and no not a "cauceses and votes with the Democratic Party like Bernie style indepedent either). He's 78, I have no interest in hearing the "Bernie is too old" people on Bloomberg. I have no interest in hearing the "Bernie's not a real Democrat" people on Bloomberg. I have no interest in hearing "Bernie who helped in the civil rights movement but is still bad on race issues" people on Mr. Stop and Frisk. I have no interst in hearing the "Biden is creepy" people on someone with 40 something sexual misconduct issues. I have no interest in hearing the "Kamala and Booker were knocked out of the debate stage to soon" on the old rich white guy who got the party to change the rules so he could show up.

    The sad thing is that he's actually showing you can buy an election to an extent.

  8. #8048
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    Quote Originally Posted by Billy Batson View Post
    Because some consider Bloomberg and Trump the same.
    They aren't. Bloomberg's like a garden variety neoconservative. He's a racist, transphobe and all around horrible human being but between him and Trump he wouldn't be the same kind of train wreck like Trump's doing. Trump is on another level of awful. I wouldn't vote for Bloomberg unless I absolutely have to but between him and Trump there's no contest.

  9. #8049
    Incredible Member Superbat's Avatar
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    Black Voters:

    Biden 34% (-1 From Pre NH Primary Poll)
    Sanders 30% (+3)
    Bloomberg 19% (+3*)
    Warren 8% (-)
    Buttigieg 4% (-)

    Hispanic Voters:

    Sanders 48% (+10)
    Bloomberg 17% (+1)
    Biden 13% (-4)
    Buttigieg 8% (+2)
    Warren 7% (+4)

    https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/...44398962839555
    Bernie2020
    Not Me. Us

  10. #8050
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mister Mets View Post
    It's reassuring that you don't think another term of Trump is that big a deal.
    Do you just not know black people in real life? Like not a single one ever? That's the only way your perception of anything black people say or how issues impact us makes sense.

    Though I guess you could be indifferent or out right hostile.
    Last edited by KOSLOX; 02-14-2020 at 05:39 PM.
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  11. #8051
    Ultimate Member Gray Lensman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steel Inquisitor View Post
    They aren't. Bloomberg's like a garden variety neoconservative. He's a racist, transphobe and all around horrible human being but between him and Trump he wouldn't be the same kind of train wreck like Trump's doing. Trump is on another level of awful. I wouldn't vote for Bloomberg unless I absolutely have to but between him and Trump there's no contest.
    Pretty much this. If the contest was between Bloomberg and, say, Romney, I might vote for Mitt, and a majority of people I know certainly would. Trump and nearly anybody else, well, I'm voting for the person who isn't named Trump. It would have to be a literal Nazi complete with the armband, or an actual Stalinist to make me consider actually pulling the lever for Trump.
    "Theory: The Phoenix doesn't corrupt the characters, it corrupts the authors." Gambit, King of Thieves

  12. #8052
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gray Lensman View Post
    Pretty much this. If the contest was between Bloomberg and, say, Romney, I might vote for Mitt, and a majority of people I know certainly would. Trump and nearly anybody else, well, I'm voting for the person who isn't named Trump. It would have to be a literal Nazi complete with the armband, or an actual Stalinist to make me consider actually pulling the lever for Trump.
    If Bloomberg is the nominee I'll probably just not vote. At least Trump is too stupid to be slick about how he's trying to oppress and disenfranchise me. Bloomberg would pull the same shit but with none of the bullhorn screaming, "Hey minority, I'm about to f### you for real!"
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  13. #8053
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    Quote Originally Posted by KNIGHT OF THE LAKE View Post
    I would characterize it as poorly if you were just leading it most of the race and the polling just changed a week before. You literally were arguing that Sanders had a dissapointing win in NH despite the fact that he didn't even enter the lead in it until like a month before. There's no way to spin a loss as positive in state you were actually winning pretty much the entire time leading up to it.

    I don't see much value in South Carolina. Black voters are not a monolith. Southern black voters especially are not the same black voters in blue states, coastal states, midwestern states or in more urban areas. It's a different dynamic and polling generally shows them to be more risk averse. They are very different voting block and they don't speak for all black people. Also unlike most of the other blocks of black voters, the ones in the South also aren't going to contribute towards a general election victory. Quite the opposite. SC matters more so in that it will show if Biden is even viable anymore, because he needs a big win there. If Bloomberg cuts into that at all, he's done and fucked. The fact that Biden is at 26.5 there and Sanders is at 20 should scare the ever loving shit out of him because if Sanders does win Nevada, that's going to be much tighter and he does not want Sanders looking remotely strong in the biggest gimmie state he has that he ditched most of the opening states of the primary to stake his claim in.
    Context changes elections. Using your logic, it'd be totally ok for Buttigieg to get no latino votes and finish with 5% in Nevada. Of course, as we sit today, that would be a disaster not something to cling to. Likewise, Biden's poor performances so far make a solid second a victory going into the states he feels more confident in. I'll remind you...I'm the one who argues from consistency. My views and arguments don't change with the wind, that's your schtick.

    Black voters are not a monolith, but South Carolina is our first data point on their sentiments. Every state's voters have their own quirks, but we draw conclusions based on the data we have. And voters in upcoming primaries will draw their conclusions or trends from that data as well. That's why it matters. If Sanders can't make headway with black voters - be it South Carolina or Pennsylvania or nearby Florida - then it's a bad sign long-term. For Buttigieg it's a bad short and long term sign. For Biden it's a death nail. So...yes, there is value because (whether we like it or not) the early elections have ripple effects on the subsequent ones regardless of how reflective they are of the larger voting groups.

  14. #8054
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    Quote Originally Posted by Superbat View Post
    Black Voters:

    Biden 34% (-1 From Pre NH Primary Poll)
    Sanders 30% (+3)
    Bloomberg 19% (+3*)
    Warren 8% (-)
    Buttigieg 4% (-)

    Hispanic Voters:

    Sanders 48% (+10)
    Bloomberg 17% (+1)
    Biden 13% (-4)
    Buttigieg 8% (+2)
    Warren 7% (+4)

    https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/...44398962839555
    19% is surprisingly high. 4% is laughably bad.

  15. #8055
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    Quote Originally Posted by Superbat View Post
    National Democratic Primary, Head-2-Head:

    Sanders 54% (+21)
    Klobuchar 33%
    .
    Sanders 54% (+17)
    Buttigieg 37%
    .
    Sanders 53% (+15)
    Bloomberg 38
    .
    Sanders 48% (+4)
    Biden 44%
    .
    Sanders 44% (+2)
    Warren 42%

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/s...87915807498241
    Great post.

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