All purpose news and politics thread part v: The quickening

[Robotman]

Governor Brian Kemp has stupid things to announce.

Well we’re going to experience the same thing here that many Asian countries that worked hard to flatten the curve experienced.

The Asian Countries that beat Covid-19 have to do it again

[InformationGeek]

There's always time for more racism in Trump's mind and on Hilter's birthday too.

BREAKING: President Trump says he is suspending immigration to the U.S. in response to the coronavirus pandemic and the "need to protect jobs." https://t.co/nMByCTZWAP

Also, die for him to fuel capitalism.

TX Lt Gov Dan Patrick: "There are more important things than living ... I dont want to die, nobody wants to die but man we've got to take some risks" https://t.co/dRTF8Moav4

[BeastieRunner]

Having looked at the bloodline for his family, which is officially known as the "Mount Paetku Bloodline", he only sired a daughter back in 2012, and in a country like North Korea, there's no way they'll let a woman lead the country. Even if they decided to choose Kim Jung-il's other children and go against both the directive of the dynasty and Jung-il's wishes, Kim Jong-nam was assassinated in 2017 and Kim Jong-chul has no intention in politics, with Kim Han-sol (Jong-nam's son) unlikely due to Jong-nam losing favor due to, of all things, an attempt to visit Tokyo Disneyland.

So, as far as we're concerned, Jong-un's death will mark not only the end of the dynasty, but also likely the end of North Korea as we know it since if they don't have a successor in place or someone to be the new face of the company, a power struggle will likely consume the government, fracturing an already impoverished and broken country. It is interesting to explore how all three rulers of this dynasty were felled by the same congenital issues (heart disease), which is not unlike the hemophilia of the Russian tsar.

China will swoop in and annex it if they don't form a collation government. All those deposit rich mines (magnesite, zinc, tungsten, iron, etc.) will make China super rich. I bet Japan wishes they had a standing army of significant size again.

[PwrdOn]

China will swoop in and annex it if they don't form a collation government. All those deposit rich mines (magnesite, zinc, tungsten, iron, etc.) will make China super rich. I bet Japan wishes they had a standing army of significant size again.

That seems unlikely, countries with nukes don't really get annexed so easily.

[worstblogever]

Where did the 2-3% number come from?

It comes from math, when you divide the total number of dead by the total number of reported infections.



Come on, Mets. You don't have to play dumb.

[TheDarman]

It comes from math, when you divide the total number of dead by the total number of reported infections.



Come on, Mets. You don't have to play dumb.

The issue with that is that we have chronic underreporting that is predicated by the federal government response being super lackluster.

For example, in Colorado, estimates are that we actually have (or had) 65,000 to 75,000 people infected. These would include asymptomatic folks who could not get tested if they wanted to. Even symptomatic people are unlikely to get a test unless their symptoms suggested possible hospitalization. Of the 10,000 that were confirmed to have COVID-19, over 4,000 were hospitalized and over 470 have died. This looks grave, but there is a silver lining: more people had it.

Looking at the low end estimates, the mortality rate in the state was something on the order of 0.74% (obviously, the high end demonstrates an even lower mortality rate). The hospitalization rate is still scary, at 7.38%. This means that there is a decent chance that you will get severely ill.

The bigger problem is that social distancing has slowed the spread to allow health care providers. This has allowed them to be able to refrain from rationing care away from those they think they might be unable to help. The issue is that with such a high hospitalization rate, should you allow for lax social distancing, you allow for spread to occur that bolsters the mortality and not because the case wasn’t treatable—but because they didn’t have the resources for treatment.

Colorado’s Governor, Jared Polis, intends to sunset the stay-at-home order as planned on April 27th. After over a month of social distancing and a month to the day of stay-at-home compliance, the state will reopen some non-essential businesses and allow for curbside pick-up from non-essential businesses as well. This is without testing and a comprehensive tracing strategy. To supplement this shortage, Polis is keeping in place strict distancing guidelines and asking for vulnerable folks to stay home. This isn’t going to be enough in the long term unless Polis wants to keep the economy only partially opened like this.

We will need to eventually move to comprehensive and widespread testing with clear contact tracing. We also need to really work on increasing hospital capacity and bringing up the numbers of folks that are trained. Because the mortality rate is low—and that is good—but we need to ensure that hospitals aren’t overwhelmed by hospitalizations so they can continue to serve those cases that look more difficult to treat. If we don’t that mortality rate with shoot up.

That is what is at stake with the reopening debate. It would be one thing if we could ensure that the 0.74% mortality rate would hold. Even by itself that number is still really high—roughly leading to 244,000 dead if we all get it. But we know that is unlikely to hold if hospitals are forced to ration care. We need to be cautious about reopening. That can take a variety of different forms, each with different levels of caution exercised. But we are far from out of the woods. We need to have some sort of herd immunity before we reach that level. Until a vaccine, we are just looking at outbreak prevention and management. If no vaccine ever comes out (as no SARs vaccine has ever been created with approval), we are looking at having to do this for the long haul to get to a place of herd immunity and having this thing die out so vulnerable folks don’t get it.

[Tendrin]

Looking like Tara Reade might not be a good person to hang your hat on.

https://twitter.com/FliedGaff/status...55158072799232

https://twitter.com/FliedGaff/status...95541140299777

[Steel Inquisitor]

Sometimes it's important to have cold policy discussions, as we have to weigh competing tradeoffs.

I don't think this is one of those times.

Yes, people aren't widgets, but more people will die if we're unable to consider some losses. For example, we need to determine what restrictions on medication are worth the cost. If we can't consider the question out of a desire to not bargain with death, more people are going to die well before their time.

People will die, the priority must be lower those numbers. Things could get much, much worse unless this is contained and being lenient will get far more people killed. So much can go wrong due to the world-wide leaders not being up to par, and any actions which save the public good will be sabotaged by those efforts - which is happening right now in Brazil and America. This is the first wave and with reckless leadership leading the front it won't be the last. And the longer this goes on the more dangerous strains we'll get.

[TheDarman]

Looking like Tara Reade might not be a good person to hang your hat on.

https://twitter.com/FliedGaff/status...55158072799232

I was about to post this same thing.

It, uh, is a very weird situation. I mean, a history of fraud damages your credibility. But the way she reacted to it speaks a lot about her character too. She said that people were fundraising off her assault (they weren’t—Reade wasn’t even mentioned in the GoFundMe started on behalf of the alleged fraud’s victims) and put in a Tweet that she was issuing a “cease and desist” with it. Uh...that isn’t how this stuff works...

[Tendrin]

I was about to post this same thing.

It, uh, is a very weird situation. I mean, a history of fraud damages your credibility. But the way she reacted to it speaks a lot about her character too. She said that people were fundraising off her assault (they weren’t—Reade wasn’t even mentioned in the GoFundMe started on behalf of the alleged fraud’s victims) and put in a Tweet that she was issuing a “cease and desist” with it. Uh...that isn’t how this stuff works...

Honestly, her twitter presence reminds me a lot of Shaun King's.\

[jetengine]

I always thought that was how the prime minister run government was run in most countries - you vote for the party, perhaps the specific MP directly at best, and then those people elect one of their number to be the head of the government. The Prime Minister isn't directly on the ballot, but as the de facto head of the party most people are technically voting for or against them when they go to the polls.

However, since a parliamentary system can easily result in a minority government, the need to form coalitions often results in a leader who can best rally the MPs rather than who most appeals to the nation as a whole. Whether or not such a system is superior probably depends on the specific nuances of how it was designed and the national political climate. Even the most robust system can be undermined if those involved are determined enough, and those that should oppose that are apathetic enough.

I'm pretty sure a parlimentary system would ensure a Trump would never have been elected. The closest thats happened afaik is Bojo and hes an intelligent, career politician that just plays the clown to get people on his side whilst actually being your usual snobbish, money obsessed Tory

[jetengine]

I was about to post this same thing.

It, uh, is a very weird situation. I mean, a history of fraud damages your credibility. But the way she reacted to it speaks a lot about her character too. She said that people were fundraising off her assault (they weren’t—Reade wasn’t even mentioned in the GoFundMe started on behalf of the alleged fraud’s victims) and put in a Tweet that she was issuing a “cease and desist” with it. Uh...that isn’t how this stuff works...

I mean, I've been saying it since the start but people were calling me pro Biden and shitting on me for being blunt. Her story is horseshit and stuff doesnt add up.

Does anyone know the status of her funds btw ? Be interesting if she had any ties to Russia ala Trump considering her money issues.

[Tendrin]

I mean, I've been saying it since the start but people were calling me pro Biden and shitting on me for being blunt. Her story is horseshit and stuff doesnt add up.

Does anyone know the status of her funds btw ? Be interesting if she had any ties to Russia ala Trump considering her money issues.

I would doubt that.

[jetengine]

I would doubt that.

It was merely a guess, just "I love putin and bernie" coupled with "I've got money problems" and "Wow heres my bogus story guys" all look like they could line up neatly.

[worstblogever]

For WBE, I think I got a guy to keep an eye for next year's Democrat of the Day. He is Barrington Martin II and he is running against John Lewis for the Democrat seat in Georgia District 5. Caught a few of his tweets here that jumped out at me.

Attachment 95776

Attachment 95777

Attachment 95779


Big Bernie or Bust bro as well. Liked, retweeted, and supported quite a few DemExit hashtags and has lashed out a few people, like IIhan Omar, and seems to bring up a lot that you should vote for him in case Lewis dies. He's got that passion for the seat and there isn't anything too out there, but you never know.

It says a lot to me that he's having a conversation with the famously bats*** Cynthia McKinney, who was pushed out of mainstream Democratic politics like 15 years ago for being a nutter in that first tweet.