All purpose news and politics thread part v: The quickening

[worstblogever]

The issue with that is that we have chronic underreporting that is predicated by the federal government response being super lackluster.

For example, in Colorado, estimates are that we actually have (or had) 65,000 to 75,000 people infected. These would include asymptomatic folks who could not get tested if they wanted to. Even symptomatic people are unlikely to get a test unless their symptoms suggested possible hospitalization. Of the 10,000 that were confirmed to have COVID-19, over 4,000 were hospitalized and over 470 have died. This looks grave, but there is a silver lining: more people had it.

Looking at the low end estimates, the mortality rate in the state was something on the order of 0.74% (obviously, the high end demonstrates an even lower mortality rate). The hospitalization rate is still scary, at 7.38%. This means that there is a decent chance that you will get severely ill.

The bigger problem is that social distancing has slowed the spread to allow health care providers. This has allowed them to be able to refrain from rationing care away from those they think they might be unable to help. The issue is that with such a high hospitalization rate, should you allow for lax social distancing, you allow for spread to occur that bolsters the mortality and not because the case wasn’t treatable—but because they didn’t have the resources for treatment.

Colorado’s Governor, Jared Polis, intends to sunset the stay-at-home order as planned on April 27th. After over a month of social distancing and a month to the day of stay-at-home compliance, the state will reopen some non-essential businesses and allow for curbside pick-up from non-essential businesses as well. This is without testing and a comprehensive tracing strategy. To supplement this shortage, Polis is keeping in place strict distancing guidelines and asking for vulnerable folks to stay home. This isn’t going to be enough in the long term unless Polis wants to keep the economy only partially opened like this.

We will need to eventually move to comprehensive and widespread testing with clear contact tracing. We also need to really work on increasing hospital capacity and bringing up the numbers of folks that are trained. Because the mortality rate is low—and that is good—but we need to ensure that hospitals aren’t overwhelmed by hospitalizations so they can continue to serve those cases that look more difficult to treat. If we don’t that mortality rate with shoot up.

That is what is at stake with the reopening debate. It would be one thing if we could ensure that the 0.74% mortality rate would hold. Even by itself that number is still really high—roughly leading to 244,000 dead if we all get it. But we know that is unlikely to hold if hospitals are forced to ration care. We need to be cautious about reopening. That can take a variety of different forms, each with different levels of caution exercised. But we are far from out of the woods. We need to have some sort of herd immunity before we reach that level. Until a vaccine, we are just looking at outbreak prevention and management. If no vaccine ever comes out (as no SARs vaccine has ever been created with approval), we are looking at having to do this for the long haul to get to a place of herd immunity and having this thing die out so vulnerable folks don’t get it.

I'm going to make it a point to note I'm a medical worker before anyone tries to "decode" what the true fatality rate of COVID-19 is... we don't know. A lot of doctors are giving COD as "respiratory virus of unknown origin" or "pneumonia" when we have people dying if they haven't tested for COVID-19... when it could very likely be the cause of death. Besides that, yes, with testing within the populace, we have no idea how many people were infected, asymptomatic, and have COVID-19 antibodies at this time. Mostly because the president's a moron and we're still MONTHS behind where we should be on manufacturing the tests to track the virus itself.

Now, here's the thing, though... how the f*** can anyone in their right mind talk about "opening everything up" right now like the dips***-in-chief is, when we can't even agree on how many people have had the virus and/or died from it?

It's f***ing madness.

[jetengine]

I'm going to make it a point to note I'm a medical worker before anyone tries to "decode" what the true fatality rate of COVID-19 is... we don't know. A lot of doctors are giving COD as "respiratory virus of unknown origin" or "pneumonia" when we have people dying if they haven't tested for COVID-19... when it could very likely be the cause of death. Besides that, yes, with testing within the populace, we have no idea how many people were infected, asymptomatic, and have COVID-19 antibodies at this time. Mostly because the president's a moron and we're still MONTHS behind where we should be on manufacturing the tests to track the virus itself.

Now, here's the thing, though... how the f*** can anyone in their right mind talk about "opening everything up" right now like the dips***-in-chief is, when we can't even agree on how many people have had the virus and/or died from it?

It's f***ing madness.

Because if you dont open up then the government actually has to pay people to stay at home or freeze bills. Both of those are socialism. Apparently.

[sammy_hansen]

I'm not sure you know what a diverging opinion is, if you think being a white Australian blaming China for everything somehow qualifies as one

Look, I don’t want this to descend to a semantics lesson but again you’re ascribing to me things I never said.

I never said all Chinese people overseas were buying up medical supplies to ship back to China.

I never said the Chinese government purposely allowed the virus to spread.

I’m also not a “white Australian blaming China for everything.”

My opinion is that China did not disclose all the information they had to the WHO and the world about the virus. This has cost lives.

But because I voice this opinion it does not mean that this is my only opinion. You sound like those who say any criticism of Israel’s government is inherently anti-Semitic, or that criticism of USA under Bush Jr. meant you were unpatriotic.

Seriously, you don’t know anything about me. You don’t know what political and economic views I hold. But you’re determined to place everyone who disagrees with you and criticizes China’s government under a single racist blanket.

I’m done with this tit-for-tat.

Now, I’m really worried for all you Americans. The culture wars have emboldened the Trumpists to disregard any sane public health advice. You only have to look at that unhinged woman screeching outside an OPEN Baskin & Robbins. Down Under, well, we’ve got some awful leaders, but some good experts. And now for a change they’ve been listened to and we have dramatically flattened the curve.

My state premier is having to deal with folks whinging about not playing golf when your state leaders are figuring out where to store the dead bodies.

[Steel Inquisitor]

Nobody did take the government's word on blind faith, there was unprecedented public opposition within China to the mishandling of the virus at first. However, when Westerners started to chime in with their usual orientalist canards about how the outbreak was an indictment on how backwards China was, the conversation completely shifted toward near universal support for the government's containment efforts. Talking to people there you could really see this turn in real time, and you can only imagine if Western governments had spent half the energy they spent rebuking China on actually preparing contingency plans perhaps things would not have gotten so out of hand.

That's been your argument from the start, that the Chinese government did no wrong. Except it's not only westerners who think that, I gave you a link of the Chinese doctors who were at the centre of the outbreak. Which you haven't addressed. Western governments have failed just as badly, only complaining about their bad leadership when China's done that as well is pointless. Why should China be lauded for everything they've done in this crisis when we know they've made huge failures?

As far as the Democratic party platform, as usual it's pretty disjointed and incoherent. They recognize that the American public generally doesn't like China and wants to appeal to that sensibility, but at the same time they aren't really committed to economic decoupling because they have no interest in trying to rebuild the industrial base at home or providing for American workers, nor to military pressure because they don't want to expend the blood and treasure to make that happen. As best as I can tell their strategy is to try and isolate China internationally while trying to replace their workers with even cheaper labor from places like Vietnam or India, which will certainly backfire because as those countries start to build up their economic and geopolitical strength they'll probably want to expand their power and influence as well instead of just remaining docile servants of Western hegemony.

This is worse than the GOP how? Your claim was that they were more militant and heavily implied they wanted to go to war over this. Those strategies are nuanced, since they want to keep their strengths without the world falling apart economically. Of course they want to make a stronger America, the fact they haven't doesn't translate to them being Reagan incarnated. A lot of those struggles require doing things which take generations to fulfil, if they can manage it at all, since voters will vote to block any progress that they want in that direction and there are bad actors trying to sabotage them inside and outside the party structure. Don't conflate everything bad America's doing as though the Democrats are in lock step when there are numerous factors involved, like the corporations and the wealthy, who aren't easy to reduce the influence of. No country wants to redistribute money like that, including China.

[worstblogever]

Because if you dont open up then the government actually has to pay people to stay at home or freeze bills. Both of those are socialism. Apparently.

And that's the real horror conservatives must fight against. Businesses being unable to operate without risking the health and well-being of the public to get money, and poor people being able to get money without doing work.

40,000 dead and more every day is not what they're concerned about.

[WestPhillyPunisher]

Governor Brian Kemp has stupid things to announce.

By the way, unless I'm mistaken, Georgia has a large film industry, and Marvel Studios filmed a goodly number of their movies in the state. If the all clear is sounded too early and without sufficient testing, look for studios, including Marvel to get the hell out of Dodge on the first thing smoking, killing the state's film industry.

[jetengine]

And that's the real horror conservatives must fight against. Businesses being unable to operate without risking the health and well-being of the public to get money, and poor people being able to get money without doing work.

40,000 dead and more every day is not what they're concerned about.

Britain's at its most right wing in 40 years and we're STILL giving people money to stay at home. Admittedly its through ramping up UC but still.

[numberthirty]

Because if you dont open up then the government actually has to pay people to stay at home or freeze bills. Both of those are socialism. Apparently.

You've got to be honest with yourself about the country we are talking about though.

Even the supposedly "Liberal..." party wouldn't even nominate someone running on universal health care.

What you're talking about is way "Actually Left..." of universal health care.

[jetengine]

You've got to be honest with yourself about the country we are talking about though.

Even the supposedly "Liberal..." party wouldn't even nominate someone running on universal health care.

What you're talking about is way "Actually Left..." of universal health care.

Thirty, go be a manchurian candidate elsewhere. We're talking about Republican failures regarding the virus not anything that needs your usual "Ah but the Democrats are the BAD GUYS" schtick which we're all bored of.

[worstblogever]

On this date in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, as well as 2019, "Crazy/Stupid Republican of the Day" published profiles of Tony Tinderholt, a member of the Texas House of Representatives and Jared Lee Loughner look-alike who hangs out with anti-immigrant militia groups and talks about arming Americans all along the U.S./Mexico border to stop Mexicans from taking “free stuff” and “thieving”. His solution to the immigration crisis is “people are going to die and that’s the only thing that is going to stop migrants from taking the lifeblood of our country.” Tinderholt has also told open-carry advocates in his district to call him immediately if the police even question them for wandering around with a firearm. Best of all was Tinderholt’s reaction to a Texas probate judge ruling that the state must comply with the Supreme Court’s rulings on same sex marriage… Tinderholt tried rallying against the judge for this, but in his effort online to do so, named the wrong case and the wrong judge. Making his crusade to protect the sanctity of marriage on Christian principles even more ridiculous and hypocritical is the fact that Tinderholt has been divorced four times, and is on his fifth marriage by the age of 44. He also has been under an ethics investigation for “misplacing” $15,000 in campaign funds, something that is not shocking when you consider that back in 1999, one of his ex-wives and employees were embezzling money from a child care business he ran to buy crack cocaine (at least it was without Tinderholt’s knowledge). Since being allowed to continue his legislative career into a second term, he has already shown no signs of chilling out, now directing his attention towards abortion. And like any Tinderholt effort, it's extreme and insane. He sponsored HB 948, "The Abolition of Abortion in Texas Act". Tinderholt followed up just that inflammatory idea with a series of quotes that take misogyny towards a level best described as completely insulting:

“Right now, it’s real easy. Right now, they don’t make it important to be personally responsible because they know that they have a backup of ‘oh, I can just go get an abortion.’ Now, we both know that consenting adults don’t always think smartly sometimes. But consenting adults need to also consider the repercussions of the sexual relationship that they’re gonna have, which is a child.”

Yes, those pesky wimmenfolk just don't know anything about being personally responsible about sex, amirite, fellas? Especially the rape and incest victims who aren't exempted by the bill Tinderholt just wrote, those non-smartly thinking consenting adults. (Please note those past two sentences are laced with all of the sarcasm I can muster.)

People did ask Tinderholt why he makes no exceptions for rape or incest, and this was his response:

"I'm a firm believer that God creates children in his own image, regardless of how that child is brought into the world, it’s created in his image, and how can someone want to destroy that? I don’t think that there should be any exceptions to murder, no matter what. So, if this child was out of the womb and it was a child that was born out of rape or incest, no one would be OK with killing a child. I look at it like that child is a child in the womb, just like it’s out.”

So unless a rapist were to father a child that looks non-human, Tinderholt feels everyone should be thrilled. Got it. Oh, and we'll point out that while Tinderholt feels there should be no exceptions to murder, he's still fine with the death penalty. Last we checked, executioners are an exception to murder, so there's that. We don’t have too much to update of late on Tony Tinderholt, save for the fact that in May of 2017, he sabotaged a bill to create stricter penalties for animal cruelty amending it to remove that punishment, and stating his desire to do so was out of spite over his previous legislation on abortion not passing to criminalize it.

Tony won re-election with a less-than-comfortable 52% of the vote. He promptly went back to work trying to criminalize all abortion, this time specifying in his legislation that it would be murder every time a zygote was killed after FERTILIZATION. Yes, outlawing abortion isn’t extreme enough for this twit, he’s going to blunder his way into criminalizing birth control pills as murder while he’s at it. And women who would do such a thing? They should be given the death penalty, in Tinderholt’s warped mind.

We can’t believe we keep having to say this, but anti-government kooks should not be elected into government.

[numberthirty]

Thirty, go be a manchurian candidate elsewhere. We're talking about Republican failures regarding the virus not anything that needs your usual "Ah but the Democrats are the BAD GUYS" schtick which we're all bored of.

The average "Right Of Actual Center..." Democratic voter in this country isn't even ready to entertain actually backing something that is "Actual Just Left Of Center..."

Never mind something as far to the actual left as you are proposing. Anyone to their right?

Come on.

This is America.

It's not even about "Good"/"Bad".

You are just talking about something that is unfathomable even in what passes for "The Left..." in America.

[jetengine]

The average "Left Of Actual Center..." Democratic voter in this country isn't even ready to entertain actually backing something that is "Actual Just Left Of Center..."

Never mind something as far to the actual left as you are proposing. Anyone to their right?

Come on.

This is America.

*yawn*


Your boring.

Its the same routine. We start lambasting the governments fuckups yet it always turns into "lets bash the dems"

[Mister Mets]

It comes from math, when you divide the total number of dead by the total number of reported infections.



Come on, Mets. You don't have to play dumb.

The figures I've seen suggested that around two million Americans will die if nothing had been done, which puts the casualty rate at 0.67% of the population .

I gave a link to an NPR piece earlier, which referenced those numbers.

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/30/82376...-total-100-000

GREENE: Let's just start with these numbers. I mean, the president made it sound like limiting this to 100,000 deaths would actually give us some relief, which is stunning to even think about. Can you put that into perspective?

AIZENMAN: Yeah. Look; if the U.S. had mounted a more aggressive response sooner, set up enough testing capacity to pick up on the first cases and act instead of allowing transmission to go undetected for weeks, maybe the death toll would have been projected much lower than 100,000.

But at this point, tens of thousands of people in the U.S. have already been infected. So the new model tells us, yes, probably the best that can be hoped for is to keep the death toll to about 100,000 people. That 2.2 million number of deaths that Trump says the U.S. is avoiding, that was from an older model based on what would happen if no action was taken.

The numbers may be out of date, so I wondered if a credible source had come up with new numbers.

Your calculation seems to be based on two flaws. The first is the idea that everyone in the country would get COVID-19. The second is the idea that all cases were accurately reported, including those who were asymptomatic.

I don't think this is one of those times.



People will die, the priority must be lower those numbers. Things could get much, much worse unless this is contained and being lenient will get far more people killed. So much can go wrong due to the world-wide leaders not being up to par, and any actions which save the public good will be sabotaged by those efforts - which is happening right now in Brazil and America. This is the first wave and with reckless leadership leading the front it won't be the last. And the longer this goes on the more dangerous strains we'll get.

If we make the argument that it's wrong to weight human lives, it's going to be difficult to tell whether the Trump administration, some Republican Governors or whoever are making the right decision by those standards.

[thwhtGuardian]

There were some deaths pretty quickly.

It gets messy, as the numbers increase when cars go faster and we start using cars more.

But there are ways to consider this. If someone invented a teleporter, how many casualties would you accept per billion miles traveled?



Fair question.

This obviously assumes that we can correctly estimate the number of deaths.

One way that I'm thinking about this is to assume that the average person lives about 1,000 months (equivalent to 83 1/3 years.)

Under the current restrictions, we can guess that quality of life is about 50%. Two months in shelter in place can be seen as roughly equivalent to losing one month. There are some complicating factors. In some ways, the first month is easier than the second, as you can imagine going a month normally without doing the things you'd usually be doing but it gets weirder to go two months without seeing relatives who live close to you, and that kind of stuff. The effect on quality of life can vary. For some shut-ins, this isn't that much worse than normal. For extroverts or people who are very close to their friends and family, this is so much worse.

For each month we get back to full function faster, it's probably worth losing an additional one hundred thousand people in a population of 315,000,000.

So to answer, I would say that each month quicker it takes to get the entire country back to pre-COVID 19 days is worth the loss of 100,000 American lives.

#3 with restrictions on mass gatherings isn't that much worse an outcome. I'd guess getting to that a month faster is worth 90,000 American lives.

#2 with further restrictions isn't that much worse. I'd guess getting to that a month faster is worth 75,000 American lives.

#1 represents a more significant decline in quality. I'm guessing that corresponds to schools still being closed. I would say getting to that a month faster is probably worth 30,000 American lives.


Where did the 2-3% number come from?

To be clear the strawman argument was that no risk would be worthwhile.

Sometimes it's important to have cold policy discussions, as we have to weigh competing tradeoffs.

Yes, people aren't widgets, but more people will die if we're unable to consider some losses. For example, we need to determine what restrictions on medication are worth the cost. If we can't consider the question out of a desire to not bargain with death, more people are going to die well before their time.

This right here, "So to answer, I would say that each month quicker it takes to get the entire country back to pre-COVID 19 days is worth the loss of 100,000 American lives." is just bogus. How can one even have that come out of their mouths with out stopping and thinking, "wait...did I just really trivialize life that much?" There has to be a severe mental disconnect for anyone who seriously put forward that kind of statement.

Are you even aware how big of a number 100,000,000 people is? With that number it's fairly likely one of your family members or loved ones will be one of them, so which family member or loved one are you personally willing to let die in order to open the country faster? Pick one and post their picture here if you really think it's worth it.

Better yet, give us a video of you telling that person that you value opening up the economy over their life so we can really see your conviction on this point. I'd certainly like to see that person's reaction to being told that they aren't worth the economy staying shut down a little longer.

Ann further, I'm betting you can't do either. It's all well and fine to toe the conservative line on the issue, which is sad enough, but I doubt you could really put your money where your mouth is when it comes to actually making it real.

[Tami]

Now this is strange, in any other US administration it would be the other way around

Egypt sends military plane filled with medical aid to help U.S. with coronavirus

A C-130 military aircraft loaded with medical supplies from Egypt is scheduled to land at Dulles International Airport on Tuesday to help fight the coronavirus, a U.S. official said Monday, a gesture meant to show support for President Trump and the U.S.-Egypt alliance.

The gift comes even as some Egyptian critics questioned if their country has the resources to be giving away supplies during the pandemic.

The supplies, according to a log provided by Mike Evans, a Texas writer and Christian activist who has advised Trump and met frequently with Middle Eastern leaders including Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sissi, include anesthesia drugs and antibiotics as well as body bags, masks and testing swabs. A U.S. official, speaking on the condition of anonymity due to protocol, confirmed that the shipment is to arrive Tuesday in Washington.