All purpose news and politics thread part v: The quickening

[Theleviathan]

"But young voters will save us"

Yup, said the soon to be defeated politician.

Bernie's latino support is strong, but Biden's strength among black voters is even better. The simple truth is this, the two candidates with the most reliable support in the primary are Buttigeig and Biden.

If you're a progressive, I'm sure that fact is unfortunate. It is nevertheless a fact.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

Yup, said the soon to be defeated politician.

Bernie's latino support is strong, but Biden's strength among black voters is even better. The simple truth is this, the two candidates with the most reliable support in the primary are Buttigeig and Biden.

If you're a progressive, I'm sure that fact is unfortunate. It is nevertheless a fact.

That's not even remotely true. You can't win a general with the black support Pete has. Pete also has been stagnant or losing ground for about a month and is still polling in singel digits nationally. There's nothing reliable about any of that. And that's an unfortunate fact for you.

Right now the winning ticket is probably some Bernie/Biden combo. You'll get most of the black turnout and get they would even each other out with misgivings from either side of the party. It's becoming clearer and clearer the party isn't looking for a middle ground and wants to either go all in on Biden or Bernie.

[worstblogever]

Washington Rep. Matt Shea engaged in domestic terrorism against U.S., says state House report

Is he on WBE's list?

WBE's profiled Shea before, yeah. Dude's a nightmare.

Oh yeah. I think I've covering Matt Shea since year 1 of the blog. He's not only awful, but he's somehow been getting worse. And yet, Republicans in that district are electing a domestic terrorist who wants to secede to form a 51st state.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/201...ea-2019-Update

[worstblogever]

On this date in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, as well as 2018, “Crazy/Stupid Republican of the Day posted profiles of Florida State Senator Kathleen Passidomo, a member of the Florida House of Representatives who first appeared on the political scene in 2010, who since taking office, has fought hard to allow banks to be able to shorten the amount of time needed before they could seek foreclosure on homes, from five years to one. What really made Passidomo newsworthy, however, was the day she tried to get dress code restrictions passed for Florida schools by trying to justify it after news reports were released about a group of teenage boys in Cleveland, Texas, gang-raping an 11-year old girl, where Passidomo started blaming the victim and saying it was because “she dressed like a prostitute”. When the media reported her utterly disgusting remarks, Passidomo then started playing the victim, herself, and saying he was “really hurt” that people were outraged.

Passidomo was allowed to run for the Florida State Senate for the first time in 2016 unopposed, and she managed to be re-elected in 2018 with 66% of the vote to a second term in the Florida State Senate. Now, this might seem strange to most, but the Florida GOP held a vote to name Passidomo their President of the Florida State Senate… starting in 2022-2026. Apparently, term limits mean that they are jockeying into place, and they’ve decided anyone who is friendly to big banks, thinks that placing guns on school campuses will solve mass shootings on them, and apologizes enough for rape is someone that fits their long term strategy.

[aja_christopher]

That's not even remotely true. You can't win a general with the black support Pete has. Pete also has been stagnant or losing ground for about a month and is still polling in singel digits nationally. There's nothing reliable about any of that. And that's an unfortunate fact for you.

Right now the winning ticket is probably some Bernie/Biden combo. You'll get most of the black turnout and get they would even each other out with misgivings from either side of the party. It's becoming clearer and clearer the party isn't looking for a middle ground and wants to either go all in on Biden or Bernie.

And just to make it clear: I have no problem with supporting that combination or almost any other combination of the top nominees.

Equally important to remember is that Democrats have won the trifecta before, and then squandered their success with infighting.

If there is anything I and Sanders agree on, it's that unity is the key to defeating the Republicans, as well as passing needed legislation.

-----
"Bernie Sanders First to Sign Pledge to Rally Behind Democratic Nominee"

"National progressive outfit Indivisible on Thursday launched a pledge compelling all 2020 Democratic presidential candidates to rally behind the eventual nominee. Bernie Sanders was the first to sign it, the group revealed.

The “We Are Indivisible” pledge asks for three commitments from him and any other prospective signers, as first reported by BuzzFeed News. First, Indivisible’s pledge requests that candidates “make the primary constructive” by outlining their visions while respecting their opponents.

“I’ll support the ultimate Democratic nominee, whoever it is—period," the pledge also reads. “No Monday morning quarterbacking. No third-party threats. Immediately after there’s a nominee, I’ll endorse.”

And the group also wants a commitment that every candidate will “do the work to beat Trump,” including a promise that “As soon as there is a nominee, I will put myself at the disposal of the campaign.”

“We believe in rigorous and spirited primaries, and we also know that once we have a nominee, our entire focus must turn to defeating Trump. The ‘We Are Indivisible’ Pledge commits all of us to a debate of ideas followed by dedicated work to make our ideas reality,” said Indivisible’s co-executive directors Leah Greenberg and Ezra Levin.

“This pledge is about beating Donald Trump and the anti-democratic, xenophobic right wing. And it’s about the ideas and vision we need for a post-Trump future.”

https://www.thedailybeast.com/bernie...cratic-primary

[Theleviathan]

That's not even remotely true. You can't win a general with the black support Pete has. Pete also has been stagnant or losing ground for about a month and is still polling in singel digits nationally. There's nothing reliable about any of that. And that's an unfortunate fact for you.

Right now the winning ticket is probably some Bernie/Biden combo. You'll get most of the black turnout and get they would even each other out with misgivings from either side of the party. It's becoming clearer and clearer the party isn't looking for a middle ground and wants to either go all in on Biden or Bernie.

I should have been more clear, Pete's supporters are the middle-ground, Midwestern Farm/Labor folks. Those will be helpful in Iowa and a few other early primaries. Bernie and Warren's core support is among less reliable voters in general.

I don't disagree that Bernie/Biden makes a lot of sense, but I think Biden has to be at the top of that ticket. And I'm not sure Bernie agrees to that.

[Tami]

I should have been more clear, Pete's supporters are the middle-ground, Midwestern Farm/Labor folks. Those will be helpful in Iowa and a few other early primaries. Bernie and Warren's core support is among less reliable voters in general.

I don't disagree that Bernie/Biden makes a lot of sense, but I think Biden has to be at the top of that ticket. And I'm not sure Bernie agrees to that.

Biden and Bernie would make a really bad match-up. Personally, considering their respective ages, I am hoping the VP is someone young enough yet expereienced enough to become President in their own right. In case Biden (or, , Bernie) becomes a 1 term president. The worst thing that could happen short of Trump winning reelection is a Democratic Prsident who only serves 1 term and the one after that is a Republican.

We need a Democrat (or 2) for at least 8 years. If there is a viable successor, then there is a chance of it being 12 years, more than enough time to undo the mess Trump created.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

I should have been more clear, Pete's supporters are the middle-ground, Midwestern Farm/Labor folks. Those will be helpful in Iowa and a few other early primaries. Bernie and Warren's core support is among less reliable voters in general.

I don't disagree that Bernie/Biden makes a lot of sense, but I think Biden has to be at the top of that ticket. And I'm not sure Bernie agrees to that.

Well you also said those were reliable voters, but those were the same Obama voters that went Trump. Helpful yes, but are they much more reliable than turning the youth out? No.

I think in that situation it would probably be better that Bernie's in the top of the ticket for this reason. Biden can play the role he played for Obama and reassure centrists that he won't let Bernie get too crazy and that there will be a guiding hand there. The other way around and Bernie supporters will see it as too symbolic and Biden voters will see Bernie as unneccessary. But having the popular guy reigned in by the pragmatist will temper fears and it guarantees a giant minority turnout and youth and age turnout

[Theleviathan]

Well you also said those were reliable voters, but those were the same Obama voters that went Trump. Helpful yes, but are they much more reliable than turning the youth out? No.

I think in that situation it would probably be better that Bernie's in the top of the ticket for this reason. Biden can play the role he played for Obama and reassure centrists that he won't let Bernie get too crazy and that there will be a guiding hand there. The other way around and Bernie supporters will see it as too symbolic and Biden voters will see Bernie as unneccessary. But having the popular guy reigned in by the pragmatist will temper fears and it guarantees a giant minority turnout and youth and age turnout

Well, there is one huge difference. Those voters turning out for Obama once or twice is once or twice more than young voters have ever reliably turned out. The very voters you are counting on had ample opportunity in 2018 to reveal themselves as a segment worth investing in. They no-showed. They could've carried Bernie to a much closer race. They didn't show or were woefully overmatched. Time and again, and this is fact, it is the moderates who win. Not always, but sometimes is better than never. They carried the Dems to sweeping victories in the House. Progressives, by and large, lost.

I should point out, Bernie is NOT popular. He has a very devoted percentage, but overall he lost to Hillary and is losing to Biden. Whatever turnout he inspires wasn't enough in 2016 and isn't enough in 2019. The reassurance has to happen the other way around. You pat the pouters on the head and you make the reliable, trusted base happy. If the pouters aren't satisfied...it's less dangerous than the reverse.

[Theleviathan]

Biden and Bernie would make a really bad match-up. Personally, considering their respective ages, I am hoping the VP is someone young enough yet expereienced enough to become President in their own right. In case Biden (or, , Bernie) becomes a 1 term president. The worst thing that could happen short of Trump winning reelection is a Democratic Prsident who only serves 1 term and the one after that is a Republican.

We need a Democrat (or 2) for at least 8 years. If there is a viable successor, then there is a chance of it being 12 years, more than enough time to undo the mess Trump created.

Valid concerns. I too wish our best options weren't such geezers.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

Well, there is one huge difference. Those voters turning out for Obama once or twice is once or twice more than young voters have ever reliably turned out. The very voters you are counting on had ample opportunity in 2018 to reveal themselves as a segment worth investing in. They no-showed. They could've carried Bernie to a much closer race. They didn't show or were woefully overmatched. Time and again, and this is fact, it is the moderates who win. Not always, but sometimes is better than never. They carried the Dems to sweeping victories in the House. Progressives, by and large, lost.

I should point out, Bernie is NOT popular. He has a very devoted percentage, but overall he lost to Hillary and is losing to Biden. Whatever turnout he inspires wasn't enough in 2016 and isn't enough in 2019. The reassurance has to happen the other way around. You pat the pouters on the head and you make the reliable, trusted base happy. If the pouters aren't satisfied...it's less dangerous than the reverse.

Young voters did turn out for Obama.... that's a big reason he won. He got African Americans in overhwelming numbers (something Pete will never do, but a Biden/Bernie coalition would) and he got the youth out (again something you need either Bernie or Warren for). 2018 can't be used as a litmus test for everything. It was one election and it was at the height of Trump hysteria. He's since become normalized and his number fluctuated. Also this is a general not state specific races. You can cater to specific regions in that regard. You need the guy who can build the biggest coalition in the most area in a general. It's a different game. You also need to pick and choose your battles. Quite frankly there are some states that you can't devote as many resources to and have to write off as a loss because it's way too easy for Republicans to win it with little effort

[Theleviathan]

Young voters did turn out for Obama.... that's a big reason he won. He got African Americans in overhwelming numbers (something Pete will never do, but a Biden/Bernie coalition would) and he got the youth out (again something you need either Bernie or Warren for). 2018 can't be used as a litmus test for everything. It was one election and it was at the height of Trump hysteria. He's since become normalized and his number fluctuated. Also this is a general not state specific races. You can cater to specific regions in that regard. You need the guy who can build the biggest coalition in the most area in a general. It's a different game. You also need to pick and choose your battles. Quite frankly there are some states that you can't devote as many resources to and have to write off as a loss because it's way too easy for Republicans to win it with little effort

First, don't give Bernie credit for black voters. If Bernie/Biden does that it's Biden. Let's be real clear, Biden blows Bernie out of the water on that front.

Bernie is not strong in many swing states. Only Wisconsin and Michigan. Biden and Buttigieg have a stronger claim in the rust belt, Florida, and other key spots. Bernie is strongest in states that are all but blue anyway.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

First, don't give Bernie credit for black voters. If Bernie/Biden does that it's Biden. Let's be real clear, Biden blows Bernie out of the water on that front.

Bernie is not strong in many swing states. Only Wisconsin and Michigan. Biden and Buttigieg have a stronger claim in the rust belt, Florida, and other key spots. Bernie is strongest in states that are all but blue anyway.

And black voters reject Biden in favor of Bernie. It’s a youth/age thing. You can’t just credit the stuff you like and ignore what you don’t

Wisconsin and Michigan were crucial in the election in 2016.

I don’t know why you keep bringing Buttegieg up. He polls at 8% Bernie is just under 20 and there’s still a gap between Pete and Warren. He is terrible with black voters (which is what we were talking about). Trump’s also beating Buttegieg in the polls in Florida. Biden is slightly ahead, but every candidate is in the margin of error.

[Tami]

Jeff Flake: The president is on trial. So are my Senate Republican colleagues.

Regarding the articles of impeachment, you could reasonably conclude that the president’s actions warrant his removal. You might also determine that the president’s actions do not rise to the constitutional standard required for removal. There is no small amount of moral hazard with each option, but both positions can be defended.

But what is indefensible is echoing House Republicans who say that the president has not done anything wrong. He has.

The willingness of House Republicans to bend to the president’s will by attempting to shift blame with the promotion of bizarre and debunked conspiracy theories has been an appalling spectacle. It will have long-term ramifications for the country and the party, to say nothing of individual reputations.

Nearly all of you condemned the president’s behavior during the 2016 campaign. Nearly all of you refused to campaign with him. You knew then that doing so would be wrong — would be a stain on your reputation and the standing of the Republican Party, and would do lasting damage to the conservative cause.

Ask yourself today: Has the president changed his behavior? Has he grown in office? Has the mantle of the presidency altered his conduct? The answer is obvious. In fact, if the president’s political rally in Michigan on Wednesday is any measure, his language has only become more vulgar, his performance cruder, his behavior more boorish and unstable.

[Theleviathan]

And black voters reject Biden in favor of Bernie. It’s a youth/age thing. You can’t just credit the stuff you like and ignore what you don’t

Wisconsin and Michigan were crucial in the election in 2016.

I don’t know why you keep bringing Buttegieg up. He polls at 8% Bernie is just under 20 and there’s still a gap between Pete and Warren. He is terrible with black voters (which is what we were talking about). Trump’s also beating Buttegieg in the polls in Florida. Biden is slightly ahead, but every candidate is in the margin of error.

No, the data is clear that the majority of the black vote supports Biden. In lopsided fashion. Much like the Latino vote is lopsided in favor of Bernie. I'm not picking and choosing, you're trying to give Bernie credit where he doesn't deserve it. He's improved his standing with black voters, but pick any polling service and it'll show a definitive advantage for Biden among black voters.

Wisconsin and Michigan will not deliver the Presidency. Even if Bernie would win them, Biden currently enjoys a significant advantage over him in Wisconsin. Michigan is closer, but still for Biden.

Can any conversation about Bernie with you be based in fact? Or should I just abandon that hope?