All purpose news and politics thread part v: The quickening

[Superbat]

That argument won't sell as well with those voters who voters for Obama. They won't buy into an idea that Biden is a Socialist. Biden stands the best chance of pulling together a coalition. Bernie is too far tot he left to do that.

The Obama voters that went to Trump aren't coming back.

70% of them approve of the job Trump is doing, and they voted Republican in 2016 because they felt let down by Obama. Trying to win them back with Obama's VP is not going to work.

[Theleviathan]

The Obama voters that went to Trump aren't coming back.

70% of them approve of the job Trump is doing, and they voted Republican in 2016 because they felt let down by Obama. Trying to win them back with Obama's VP is not going to work.

Where does the 70% come from?

[Superbat]

Where does the 70% come from?

"But there is erosion among voters who backed Barack Obama in 2012 but switched to Trump in 2016. Only 70 percent of those Obama-Trump voters approved of the job the president is doing."

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/...rs-poll-242334

This is good news and bad news.

The good news is that he's losing their support because he can't deliver on what he promised them. The bad news is that they aren't going to vote for a Democrat, so we can forget about winning them back.

They voted for Trump because they were let down by Obama. They aren't going to vote for another Democrat, not Obama's VP.

What will happen with these voters as they drift away from Trump is that they will be to Trump what some Obama voters of 2008 were to Obama in 2012. Instead of voting for the opponent, they don't show up to vote at all.

[Tami]

"But there is erosion among voters who backed Barack Obama in 2012 but switched to Trump in 2016. Only 70 percent of those Obama-Trump voters approved of the job the president is doing."

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/...rs-poll-242334

This is good news and bad news.

The good news is that he's losing their support because he can't deliver on what he promised them. The bad news is that they aren't going to vote for a Democrat, so we can forget about winning them back.

They voted for Trump because they were let down by Obama. They aren't going to vote for another Democrat, not Obama's VP.

What will happen with these voters as they drift away from Trump is that they will be to Trump what some of they were to Obama in 2012. Instead of voting for the opponent, they don't show up to vote at all.

That article is dated two years ago, 09/06/2017. A lot has happened since then.

[Superbat]

That article is dated two years ago, 09/06/2017. A lot has happened since then.

Trump's approval rating then was 38%. His approval rating now is 45%.

[kidfresh512]

Well all the Trump supporters at work are happy that Oil prices went up today! Does it matter that we are on the brink of war to get the prices up? Not so much. And as expected they ignore the fact that he campaigned on stopping endless wars. Yet here we are sending 3000+ more troops over. And threatening to sanction Iraq AND threatening Iran. I mean lol. The amount of money and lives we have given to build Iraq back up and here we are getting voted out of the country and threatening them with sanctions.

[Kirby101]

Trump's approval rating then was 38%. His approval rating now is 45%.

42%, and it has been between 40% and 42% (standard deviation) for 2 years.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...roval-ratings/

[Superbat]

42%, and it has been between 40% and 42% (standard deviation) for 2 years.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...roval-ratings/

The last gallup poll had him at 45% but your link is more recent.

His approval rating has still risen since the last time the Obama-Trump voters were polled. Most of them are still going to stick with him.

[numberthirty]

Again, please seriously consider what this means...

Whether it is something you want to have to contend with or not, this is the actual state of things...

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...e-party-094642

AOC: 'In any other country, Joe Biden and I would not be in the same party'

[Tendrin]

Again, please seriously consider what this means...

Whether it is something you want to have to contend with or not, this is the actual state of things...

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...e-party-094642

Where's that eye roll emoji?

[4saken1]

Bernie openly calls himself a socialist and he's more popular than the other candidates.

The number of young voters Bernie will bring in will trample all over the Republicans that maybe might consider for a Democrat over Trump if it wasn't Sanders.

Only 43% of Americans have a positive opinion of socialism, but 70% of millennials support socialism and they will turn out to vote for Bernie if he's the nominee.

Warren will end up splitting the Progressive vote for the Primaries if one of them doesn't drop out early, handing the candidacy to Biden.

Bernie has even less of a chance against Trump than he did in 2016 due to the fact that many Clinton supporters likely will not vote for him or even cast a '**** you Bernie' vote for Trump either out of spite or to 'prove' that Sanders never really had a shot.

[kidfresh512]

Again, please seriously consider what this means...

Whether it is something you want to have to contend with or not, this is the actual state of things...

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...e-party-094642

It is true. Other countries have more parties, more specialized smaller parties to choose from. We don't. So the Democratic party covers a lot of ground currently is all she's saying really. That won't change anytime soon. The Democratic party as is needs all of its components from Far left to center to all vote together or the GOP wins. There isnt enough voting members of any specific faction of "current Democrat" to beat the GOP base.

GOP doesn't have to contend with holding together a large coalition of voters. Its a much smaller narrower focus to winning for them. They don't try to expand their base. It's pretty restrictive and exclusionary by design to minority groups, LGBT even women in general etc.

And that's why they have baked in gerrymandering, and rely on the Electoral College and voter suppression to limit access to power for anyone not in their base which is a majority of the country. And we all know the gap will only widen as they dont attempt to court outside their base

[Mister Mets]

Look, agreed on that every potential nominee has some missteps they will need to be able to contend with.

That said, you've got to be kidding yourself not to take a realistic look at Biden's potential issues.

Even if there is nothing to whatever happened in Ukraine, it looks a whole lot like a pattern when you take that Biden absolutely went to bat for creditors that had given his son a job. Never mind that it's the same son in each instance.

It is ridiculous to take a look at that and say "Everyone's Got Screw Ups..."

If Trump has anyone in his campaign worth a dime and a sandwich, they will be all over that. Meanwhile, there is no scenario where you even might have to deal with that if Sanders or Warren are your nominee.

Never mind that no one seems like they even want to discuss if Biden can do the same job that HRC did when it comes to holding Democrats together.

It's the degree to which folks seem intent on just ignoring potential stumbles that is baffling to me. After the last time out, you would think folks would have internalized that you are going to have to run a nearly perfect game with just the Democratic base for Sanders' supporters to even be an issue.

All of those teachers that donated to Sanders? That is a sign that you might not be doing so.

Trump would still have plenty of ammunition against Sanders. Medicare For All remains unpopular. He stated he wants to give voting rights to convicted terrorists serving life sentences. And the college his wife ran got shut down due to long-standing financial problems.

[Superbat]

Warren will end up splitting the Progressive vote for the Primaries if one of them doesn't drop out early, handing the candidacy to Biden.

Bernie has even less of a chance against Trump than he did in 2016 due to the fact that many Clinton supporters likely will not vote for him or even cast a '**** you Bernie' vote for Trump either out of spite or to 'prove' that Sanders never really had a shot.

Bernie has most of the progressive base already.

Warren is hurting him but not by enough to keep him from winning, and with her numbers going down his are only going to get better.

Those Clinton voters will vote for Bernie in the general. When Bernie wins the nomination they are going to be bitter and spiteful but they hate Trump more than they hate Bernie. They will do the right thing in the end.

[The Overlord]

Warren will end up splitting the Progressive vote for the Primaries if one of them doesn't drop out early, handing the candidacy to Biden.

Bernie has even less of a chance against Trump than he did in 2016 due to the fact that many Clinton supporters likely will not vote for him or even cast a '**** you Bernie' vote for Trump either out of spite or to 'prove' that Sanders never really had a shot.

But doesn't that go against the argument presented here that it doesn't matter who the nominee is, people have a moral duty to vote for that person to defeat Trump.

Clinton supporters voting for Trump or staying home undermines the arguments they have been making for years now.

For all the blame Clinton supporters try to put on Bernie for Trump's win, they seem to ignore the Pied Piper strategy Clinton promoted:

https://www.politico.com/magazine/st...d-trump-214428

So what is more important for these people, avenging Hillary Clinton's by defeating Sanders if he wins the nomination or actually defeating Trump?

Trump would still have plenty of ammunition against Sanders. Medicare For All remains unpopular. He stated he wants to give voting rights to convicted terrorists serving life sentences. And the college his wife ran got shut down due to long-standing financial problems.

Is it unpopular?

https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-amer...ll-health-care

You are a conservative and here is an honest question, how do you defend the current health care system in the US?

I live in Canada and we have no medical bankruptcies, Canada spends less of its GDP on health care than the US does and Americans are going to Canada to buy cheaper medicine.

As for the college thing, I think Bernie can counter with the fact Trump ran Trump University, Trump will try to brush that off, I am sure we will cherry-pick arguments against Biden as well, but I do think a lot of what he does can be countered.