All purpose news and politics thread part v: The quickening

[numberthirty]

This is true for anyone not named Biden. Biden's strategy is to withstand the early states and have the Southern states be a fire wall. Bernie and Warren's (and to a MUCH lesser extent Buttigieg) are banking on winning Iowa, having that fall into a NH win, having that close the gap to make it a race and then start building leads in the closer states to minimize the South.

I also will say, I don't feel comfortable with a candidate who's strength is in the South. Those states simply don't go blue in the general. Clinton had a similar issue. She won on the strength of the South. Then got into a general, lost every single state there, and then struggled where she struggled in the primary and it opened up a path for Trump.

There's more issues than that to the General.

While a lot of folks don't actually want to face it, folks feel like they are just banking on the idea that some Republicans might vote for Biden.

That said, I'd say the reasoning there amounts to a "Coin Toss..." I get why they buy into it, but I have my doubts about if it actually goes that way.

- Actually being able to get the "Nuts"/"Bolts" done in a General. While he has been passable during the primary so far, what has pointed to that he that it is even likely that he could. While I don't think that he is as dull as some folks in cable news have suggested(he's seemed sharp enough in interviews), is he sharp enough not to come up for the bait if he is running against Trump?

That's where I get worried. This guy is out there challenging voters to push up contests.

- Does Biden have an actual argument that is going to seem far enough away from "More Of The Same..." to make a difference in swing states? While I get the doubts about Warren or Sanders, you cannot reasonably suggest that they don't have the argument and that it's down cold.

- Trump isn't just running for a first term this time out. If Trump doesn't just completely face plant, can you make a case against sticking with him? Again, Warren or Sanders have that case. I haven't seen Biden really make it yet.

Never mind the built in weaknesses that Biden would have. Folks will talk all day about Sanders being potentially weak, but I don't think anyone is seriously thinking over if a Biden General Election run can be pulled back onto the road if it starts heading for the ditch.

[numberthirty]

Please don't bet on Texas. It's been supposed to turn blue my entire life. It's not happening and if that's the gamble it puts you in the whole just like Florida did in 2016

I would never count on Texas to be the road to winning an election. But the fact that it’s in play and Biden is actually leading in a few polls is interesting.

While I'd agree that it is interesting, I'd say that focusing on issues that could amount to the "Blue Wall" falling apart last time would make more sense that trying to put a serious effort into trying to seriously compete in Texas. Just trying to run as close to a perfect game in what you absolutely need to have just to have a shot is probably a better place to put the focus.

That said, look at Florida's last race for Governor. While I think that Trump might have a better break in a Presidential election, I see what you are saying about that some of this is at least interesting.

[numberthirty]

Whoever wins Iowa will inevitably get a boost because they will have a win under their belt. It's basically how Obama won. He proved he could win early on, it made people believe he had a shot. Donors got on board, and it cooled the jets on Clinton. Now I would be happy if Bernie won, unlike you, so I'm pulling for that (unless Warren can make a comeback).

That said, it will still be a race no matter who wins Iowa. What you will see happen is Bernie would (assuming he wins) get a bump that nationally puts him in tight race with Biden (maybe around 3 points). And then he goes up in states where he is close and that turns into wins, and then they have to slug it out.

It's hard to know until people jump ship from other candidates. I big part of politics is the belief thats someone can win. People aren't motivated to turnout when they think someone will lose.

One stray thought...

While there's obviously been talk of what will become of Sanders' supporters if he doesn't get the nomination, I have been thinking "What about Yang?" He's obviously go more support than some of the Democrats and "Money" candidates in some places, and I don't know that his supporters really line up with the more mainstream Democrats.

[numberthirty]

An interesting smaller piece of the overall "Iowa" picture...

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/derek...ushpmg00000004

Ex-Castro Staffer And Top Iowa Democrat Endorses Bernie Sanders

Former Iowa Democratic Party Chairman Derek Eadon’s experience with a rare nerve disease turned him into an evangelist for “Medicare for All.”

Derek Eadon, a former deputy campaign manager for Julián Castro and ex-chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party, announced his support for Bernie Sanders’s presidential bid Friday, handing the Vermont senator one of his most prominent endorsements from an Iowa Democrat.

Eadon, a 36-year-old veteran of Barack Obama’s 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns, does not fit the typical profile of a Sanders endorser. But a multiyear bout with trigeminal neuralgia, a rare nerve disease that causes acute facial pain, has ruined his finances and reshaped his politics.

The political consultant, whose condition has cost his family an estimated $40,000 in out-of-pocket costs and brought them to the brink of bankruptcy, said Sanders’s record won him over. Eadon is now an outspoken proponent for “Medicare for All” and an admirer of Sanders’s consistent support for the plan.

[Tami]

Bernie campaign slams Warren as candidate of the elite

DES MOINES, Iowa — The non-aggression pact between Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren is seriously fraying.

Sanders’ campaign has begun stealthily attacking Warren as a candidate of the upper crust who could not expand the Democratic base in a general election, according to talking points his campaign is using to persuade voters obtained by POLITICO.

The script instructs Sanders volunteers to tell voters leaning toward the Massachusetts senator that the “people who support her are highly-educated, more affluent people who are going to show up and vote Democratic no matter what” and that “[s]he's bringing no new bases into the Democratic Party.”

“I like Elizabeth Warren. [optional]” the script begins. “In fact, she’s my second choice. But here’s my concern about her.” It then pivots to the criticisms of Warren.

The Sanders campaign did not challenge the authenticity of the script, but declined to comment. The Warren campaign also declined to comment.

It is not clear whether the script is being used for phone calls or door knocking or both, or in which locations.

[Iron Maiden]

It can be pretty rough, keeping voters away from the polls is a political strategy in some places. Around me, all of the rural towns used to have their own polling place, but the county cut down and rolled them into one. Now I would have to drive 20 miles to a town I've never even been just to vote.

Here in Indiana, the GOP is up to shenanigans since they have a supermajority in the house and a GOP governor. NW Indiana, where I live, is mostly a Democratic stronghold except for a few counties. They started with Marion county in 2016 after Obama unexpectedly[/URL] won Indiana, which is the county where the state capital of Indianapolis is located.

Then in 2018 Indiana's GOP Secretary of State Connie Lawson cut 170 precincts from Lake County (in NW Indiana), most of them Democratic. This has been happening nationwide... "In the five years since the U.S. Supreme Court struck down key parts of the Voting Rights Act, nearly a thousand polling places have been shuttered across the country, many of them in southern black communities."

Another reason why Moscow Mitch and his Supreme Court strategy is having a long range effect on this country.

[SquirrelMan]

Bernie campaign slams Warren as candidate of the elite

Wait, what

[SquirrelMan]

A Sanders supporting primary candidate in Missouri, Maite Salazar, falsely accused her Democratic opponent of having a photo of Bill Cosby in his office. It was actually a picture of the late jazz singer, Al Jarreau.

[SquirrelMan]

Can women make dad jokes? Asking for a justice democrat.

[PaulBullion]

Bernie campaign slams Warren as candidate of the elite

Strategically, smearing Warren is a bad choice because Bernard is the second choice of many Warren voters. If she drops out before him, treating her like garbage now would make it less likely for Sanders to inherit her voters.

[jetengine]

Politicians who smear their opponents as "For the educated elite" are assholes. Education is for all. Making it a "Dumb vs Smart" undermines your own constituents and pisses people off. You dont want it to get like here in the UK where publicly on national TV officials are saying "We've had enough of experts" as if by ignoring reality it'll conform to their wishes.

Now making it rich vs poor has more strength behind it but still doesnt quite vibe when your opponent is also the women trying to shred rich peoples accounts.

[SquirrelMan]

Politicians who smear their opponents as "For the educated elite" are assholes. Education is for all. Making it a "Dumb vs Smart" undermines your own constituents and pisses people off. You dont want it to get like here in the UK where publicly on national TV officials are saying "We've had enough of experts" as if by ignoring reality it'll conform to their wishes.

Now making it rich vs poor has more strength behind it but still doesnt quite vibe when your opponent is also the women trying to shred rich peoples accounts.

It's a bit of a head scratcher until you realize those guys aren't great at winning elections. They're just good at ensuring other Democrats don't win, either.

[WestPhillyPunisher]

Rep. Justin Amash Blasts Trump For ‘Selling’ American Troops To Saudis

The slam follows Trump’s boast on Fox News that Saudi Arabia is paying “$1 billion” to some “bank” to get U.S. soldiers. I'm sure Republicans will justify Trump having essentially pimped out our soldiers to the country that birthed 19 of the 20 9/11 hijackers. The American people need to go berserk and take to the streets over what Trump had done. Meanwhile, speaking of protests....

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Reports: Anti-Government Protests Break Out In Iran Over Downing Of Passenger Plane

Iran’s belated admission of blame has squandered the national unity seen after Qassem Soleimani’s assassination. A story worth keep an eye on. Speaking of protests....

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Megan Rapinoe Reacts To Protest Ban At 2020 Olympics: ‘We Will Not Be Silenced’

There’s “so little being done about what we are protesting about,” the soccer star wrote in an Instagram story. Yet another story that should prove intriguing.

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New Poll Shows It’s Anybody’s Race In Iowa

Sanders rises and Buttigieg falls, but no candidate has a clear edge in the first contest of the Democratic primary. I'm not sure if that's a good thing or not.

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‘Art Of The Deal’ Co-Author Spells Out How Impeachment ‘Humiliation’ Is Hitting Trump

Tony Schwartz said it will be dominating the president’s “consciousness for the vast majority of every waking day.” To which I say....GOOD!

[Superbat]

A Sanders supporting primary candidate in Missouri, Maite Salazar, falsely accused her Democratic opponent of having a photo of Bill Cosby in his office. It was actually a picture of the late jazz singer, Al Jarreau.

This is an Elizabeth Warren campaign surrogate.

[SquirrelMan]

Do you have a point?

In October 2019 whilst feuding with supporters of 2020 presidential candidate Bernie Sanders over his absence from two LGBTQ forums, past tweets made by Preston resurfaced, described as racist and homophobic in content. Preston deleted several of the tweets and issued an apology, blaming her drug addiction at the time of the tweets.[

Oh guess what, it was Bernie Sanders supporters who dug he troubled past up when she dared not stan him.