All purpose news and politics thread part v: The quickening

[Farealmer]

Clearly nothing bad enough to prevent him from becoming president.

Twice even.

[The Overlord]

It's hard to compare Hillary then to Bernie now because of the primaries. It's hard to compare any of the candidates yet until the field clears out. The data is just too fuzzy at this point.

My basis for that argument is how each primary candidate is polling in swing states. You can look here and sort by state to see what I'm talking about (only Michigan is a good spot for Bernie among swing states): https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...mary-forecast/

I am saying that I am skeptical of the electability argument, because it was the same argument we saw last time with the centrists.

And again, will Biden maintain that lead in the swing states if Trump is constantly hammering him on his record, like he did with Clinton?

[Theleviathan]

I am saying that I am skeptical of the electability argument, because it was the same argument we saw last time with the centrists.

And again, will Biden maintain that lead in the swing states if Trump is constantly hammering him on his record, like he did with Clinton?

Trump can hammer Bernie on things too. I'd argue he'll hammer him on issues especially effective in swing states.

You can be skeptical, it's just that you're bringing up arguments that don't have much merit. Centrists lose sometimes, but the conclusion you're drawing isn't justified. Especially given the inability for Bernie to beat that very centrist when he had the chance. And not in a general election...in an election of only left-wing or center Democrats.

[Tami]

Rick Wilson pens 11 new rules for Republicans who have decided to worship Donald Trump as their God

Former Republican Rick Wilson unleashed an epic rant against Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) Wednesday night. As part of the mockery of the South Carolina Senator, Wilson outlined new rules for Republican officials to follow under the leadership of President Donald Trump, who he called “Sniffles The Clown.”

“The assertion by Lindsay Graham that today’s bizarre performance by Sniffles The Clown was on par with ‘Tear Down This Wall’ is part of the Saddamification of the GOP,” said Wilson.

Twitter Link

[4saken1]

Here is a truth, a fact that is indisputable, no left-wing liberal has won a national election for President in many decades. (Longer, if the bar is Warren/Sanders) So when you point at centrists who failed as a justification for your further left candidate, it's a toothless criticism. Yes, Hillary was a centrist who lost. Obama was a centrist who won. So was Clinton. How many Warren/Sanders types can say they won? Right. Zero. So maybe find a different criticism, cuz that one isn't very strong. (Especially because, when we broaden it out to house or senate races across the country like in, say, 2018, it shows very little appetite around the nation for further left candidates. Moderates and centrists win, liberals don't. That's just a reality).

I think a lot of things have changed recently, though. Many Progressives refuse to vote for a moderate candidate, then when that candidate doesn't get enough votes, they go 'See, moderates can't win!' As long as they can find some other reason why the candidate lost, they will always be able to absolve themselves of any responsibility.

We have seen a few Progressive candidates win in certain states. It largely depends on which districts they run in. Nobody on a national level, but it does feed the notion that a Progressive CAN win the Presidency, I think. Math play a big part in this, too! Warren and Sanders' chances of winning the nomination increase exponentially if the other drops out. That would force Progressives to admit there is such a thing as a spoiler vote, though!

[Theleviathan]

I think a lot of things have changed recently, though. Many Progressives refuse to vote for a moderate candidate, then when that candidate doesn't get enough votes, they go 'See, moderates can't win!' As long as they can find some other reason why the candidate lost, they will always be able to absolve themselves of any responsibility.

We have seen a few Progressive candidates win in certain states. It largely depends on which districts they run in. Nobody on a national level, but it does feed the notion that a Progressive CAN win the Presidency, I think. Math play a big part in this, too! Warren and Sanders' chances of winning the nomination increase exponentially if the other drops out. That would force Progressives to admit there is such a thing as a spoiler vote, though!

The progressive wins are very narrow at this point. If progressives start claiming governor spots or senate seats then my ears will perk up. I even thought 2018 might see a bit of a revolution on that point and it didn't happen.

The voting populace isn't ready for it by all indications. Maybe Bernie can win, if he gets the nomination he gets my support. I just express my worries here because there is one thing and one thing only that matters - winning. And the only way to do that is to win swing states.

[Tami]

Donald Trump Is a Hostage to 1979

If you’re Donald Trump, it’s always 1979. Your tan is lurid, last night’s glitter sticks to your shoe, and, still a young man, you thrill to the promise of future divorces. At the first hint of trouble, Roy Cohn is at your fingertips — and you at his. New York City, at least the parts you deserve to own (The Plaza, Studio 54, 21 Club), is a bachelor’s playpen. The rest of it? Ungovernable hellscape. The climate is doing just fine, thank you. And the president of the United States? Weak; pathetically weak.

In February 1979, a revolutionary cadre led by the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini overthrew the shah of Iran. Iran was a postwar client state of the United States, and its shah had been a good friend to American banks, oil companies, construction firms and weapons suppliers. A symbol of American hegemony had turned overnight into a symbol of another kind: of hubris, intelligence failure, overreach. Predictably, international markets panicked. The dollar fell, and gasoline prices spiked by 70 percent. This came on top of previous oil shocks that raised prices by a factor of five.

As 1979 turned into an “annus horribilis,” President Jimmy Carter became a scapegoat for all the failures of a decade. The fall of Saigon, Watergate, stagflation, gas lines — a miserable era was already reaching its orgiastic summa when, in early November, a group of Iranian college students occupied the American embassy in Tehran, taking 52 Americans hostage. Over the course of their 444-day captivity, a set of images and phrases penetrated America’s conscience — burning flags, chants of “Death to America” — and sunk deep into the country’s collective psyche. The indelible images of ’79 were surely on Mr. Trump’s mind when he flabbergasted his generals and decided to eliminate Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, the commander of Iran’s clandestine operations, by a drone strike.

Only a few days before General Suleimani’s assassination, an angry mob breached Baghdad’s Green Zone and surrounded the American embassy, an act for which Mr. Trump held Iran, and by implication General Suleimani, responsible. The event seems to have triggered an episode of déjà vu in the commander in chief: The 52 Iranian sites Mr. Trump subsequently threatened to destroy represented, he said, “the 52 American hostages taken by Iran many years ago.” A hostage crisis would be intolerable for any holder of the office, but for President Trump, it bears an extra, profound significance.

As Mr. Carter became the national scapegoat, the qualities that once made him the antidote to Richard Nixon — his piety, simplicity, openness, gentleness — could now be coded as impotence. By July 1980, thanks to his perceived mishandling of the crisis, his disapproval rating hit 77 percent, higher than Nixon’s worst, in part because “Carter did not project the image of being a ‘real man,’ ” as the political scientist John M. Orman argued in “Comparing Presidential Behavior: Carter, Reagan, and the Macho Presidential Style.” Picking up on the nastier implications, various right-wingers over the years have derided Mr. Carter as “the first female president.” Even Mr. Carter himself has admitted, ruefully, “I could’ve been re-elected if I’d taken military action against Iran, shown that I was strong and resolute and, um, manly and so forth.”

[Mister Mets]

I am saying that I am skeptical of the electability argument, because it was the same argument we saw last time with the centrists.

And again, will Biden maintain that lead in the swing states if Trump is constantly hammering him on his record, like he did with Clinton?

I am curious about the people who will back Sanders in a presidential election, who would not vote for Biden.

Who are the Sanders voters who would vote for Trump, or at least stay home in key swing states when Trump is up for reelection against a Biden/ Duckworth (or whoever) ticket?

[WestPhillyPunisher]

Donald Trump Is a Hostage to 1979

Funny, I thought Trump was obsessed with Barack Obama. Guess I was mistaken.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

Clearly nothing bad enough to prevent him from becoming president.

Obama being a stronger candidate and overcoming a greater resistance is intellectually irrelevant. But way to gaslight

[The Overlord]

I am curious about the people who will back Sanders in a presidential election, who would not vote for Biden.

Who are the Sanders voters who would vote for Trump, or at least stay home in key swing states when Trump is up for reelection against a Biden/ Duckworth (or whoever) ticket?

Well I live in Canada, so I cannot vote in an American election. I know Clinton lost the rust belt voters because Trump criticized NAFTA and Clinton did nothing in response.

Anyone who decides to vote for Trump if Bernie doesn't win is a fool, but the Dems cannot take their own base for granted, the GOP doesn't. If Biden wins, he will have appeal to those who wanted a more left wing candidate, rather than assume those people will vote for him just because he is not Trump.

I wonder if African Americans will vote for Biden on masse when Trump brings his stances on "forced busing" over and over again.

[Gray Lensman]

Funny, I thought Trump was obsessed with Barack Obama. Guess I was mistaken.

Why not both?

[jetengine]

Twitter Link

I find it kind of fucked up his people have canned responses.

[TriggerWarning]

I am saying that I am skeptical of the electability argument, because it was the same argument we saw last time with the centrists.

And again, will Biden maintain that lead in the swing states if Trump is constantly hammering him on his record, like he did with Clinton?

Not the same. With Hilary Clinton you either liked her or you hated her with little in between. She and Trump were easily the two most detestable candidates of at least the last 45 years.

Biden is a gaffe machine and his hair sniffing is weird but he's an overall likeable guy.

If Biden is the candidate many centrists will be like me (I'm slightly left and libertarian) and actually vote for him whereas in 2016 I said a pox on both your houses and voted Gary Johnson as I found both Trump and Clinton so revulsive I wouldn't vote for either.

Bernie is a wild card. There is nothing about him that makes him unlikeable but his policies are extreme.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

Not the same. With Hilary Clinton you either liked her or you hated her with little in between. She and Trump were easily the two most detestable candidates of at least the last 45 years.

Biden is a gaffe machine and his hair sniffing is weird but he's an overall likeable guy.

If Biden is the candidate many centrists will be like me (I'm slightly left and libertarian) and actually vote for him whereas in 2016 I said a pox on both your houses and voted Gary Johnson as I found both Trump and Clinton so revulsive I wouldn't vote for either.

Bernie is a wild card. There is nothing about him that makes him unlikeable but his policies are extreme.

Hillary was an overall more popular candidate. Biden really was a B tier guy who could never make any waves in a primary ever and was uninspired. Right now he's kinda riding Obama's coattails. If he gets the nom, he's going to be hit fucking hard by Republicans and it's going to be brutal with some of the **** he did and said in the past. That's what scares me about him.