All purpose news and politics thread part v: The quickening

[Celgress]

My prediction is Bernie Sanders wins the Iowa Caucus (probably by a fair margin), I'm not saying this is a good (or bad thing) rather it is what (I think based upon the evidence including polls & crowd sizes) will happen.

[aja_christopher]

My prediction is Bernie Sanders wins the Iowa Caucus (probably by a fair margin), I'm not saying this is a good (or bad thing) rather it is what (I think based upon the evidence including polls & crowd sizes) will happen.

At which point he'll start getting treated like a real contender and will have to deal with the ensuing attention accordingly, instead of just complaining about the media.

Guess we'll see how he handles it -- hopefully better than last time around but I wouldn't put money on it.

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"Sanders once likened poor whites to blacks under Apartheid"

The fact the decades-old remarks are surfacing now shows that desperation is setting in to stop him, his campaign responded.

Bernie Sanders once compared poor white Vermonters to black South Africans suffering under Apartheid. At other times, he likened the plight of some working people as well as imported foreign laborers to slavery.

Now that Sanders is rising in the polls and expected by many to win Iowa, rival Democrats are bringing to light his decades-old comments in an effort to question the senator’s stances on race and to underscore the challenges he has had with black voters.

“I’m not surprised, given the momentum of Sanders, that the knives come out. But it does in fact raise legitimate questions about how he approaches race,” said Cornell Belcher, who polled for President Barack Obama and is neutral in the primary.

“A lot of minorities and sensible voters are going to look at these statements and say it’s incredibly insensitive and nonsensical to compare black South Africans in this way to workers in Vermont”,” Belcher said. “It’s just an insensitivity about him on racial issues that are problematic. To compare slavery to workers not having a say in a company that pays them in Vermont is enormously insensitive.”

Sanders struggled with the issue of race in the 2016 presidential campaign, when he exploded on the political scene by nearly winning Iowa and then taking New Hampshire against Hillary Clinton. But when he had to compete in states with more diverse populations, Sanders lost badly.

Quentin James, executive director of The Collective, a political committee that aids African-American candidates, said that Sanders' biggest liability with black voters is that he never attempted to build meaningful relationships with black lawmakers and community figures until he ran for president.

“He’s been in office for decades, but now that he needs black people he’s here,” said James, whose group is neutral in the race. He added adding that Sanders has improved his outreach to African Americans since 2016 but still needs to explain his past comments about race.

“Every white candidate in the nomination process has a problem with race,” James said, “Biden answered for it and was held accountable. Now it’s Sanders' turn.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...artheid-110404

[numberthirty]

Worth noting that this was also a part of the above article...

At a 1986 public forum, Sanders said poor Vermonters “are the equivalent of blacks in South Africa. They don’t vote, they aren’t involved, they don’t care about the issues,” according to the Bennington Banner in Vermont. Sanders amended his statement after one observer on stage commented about his “pretty fiery oratory.”

“Obviously the analogy is not true,” Sanders then responded, “because in South Africa the blacks are not invisible — they are beginning to stand up.”

[Steel Inquisitor]

The fact the decades-old remarks are surfacing now shows that desperation is setting in to stop him, his campaign responded.

Anything to cast Sanders as an outsider, rather than acknowledging that this is a natural event when one becomes a front runner. They could have hit back by being neutral and above it all, as well, but part of this feels like they don't want to risk being perceived as weak and vulnerable.

Bernie Sanders once compared poor white Vermonters to black South Africans suffering under Apartheid. At other times, he likened the plight of some working people as well as imported foreign laborers to slavery.

What was Sanders thinking? He should know better. This is a comment which is going to get dismissed and ignored by his now supporters who dare not let him be viewed as anything but perfect.

Quentin James, executive director of The Collective, a political committee that aids African-American candidates, said that Sanders' biggest liability with black voters is that he never attempted to build meaningful relationships with black lawmakers and community figures until he ran for president.

Not surprising, and it's not taught to leftist politicians as much as it should be. Given how he's the leader for the movement it speaks volumes that he's not getting his own leftist allies up to speed on actions like this he should know how to avoid. It's just not a priority for him, which is shameful considering the Black vote are the backbone of the party.

[Celgress]

In defense of Sanders what I think he meant by the Apartheid comparison is the Marxist belief that working people (regardless of race) are akin to slaves of their employers due to exploitation. I'm not saying I totally agree rather I understand the framing device he used. I very much doubt Sanders meant anything overtly malicious by his insensitive comment.

[numberthirty]

In defense of Sanders what I think he meant by the Apartheid comparison is the Marxist belief that working people (regardless of race) are akin to slaves of their employers due to exploitation. I'm not saying I totally agree rather I understand the framing device he used. I very much doubt Sanders meant anything overtly malicious by his insensitive comment.

Since this bears repeating, what Sanders actually said seem pretty clear to me...

At a 1986 public forum, Sanders said poor Vermonters “are the equivalent of blacks in South Africa. They don’t vote, they aren’t involved, they don’t care about the issues,” according to the Bennington Banner in Vermont. Sanders amended his statement after one observer on stage commented about his “pretty fiery oratory.”

“Obviously the analogy is not true,” Sanders then responded, “because in South Africa the blacks are not invisible — they are beginning to stand up.”

[aja_christopher]

Anything to cast Sanders as an outsider, rather than acknowledging that this is a natural event when one becomes a front runner. They could have hit back by being neutral and above it all, as well, but part of this feels like they don't want to risk being perceived as weak and vulnerable.

What was Sanders thinking? He should know better. This is a comment which is going to get dismissed and ignored by his now supporters who dare not let him be viewed as anything but perfect.

Not surprising, and it's not taught to leftist politicians as much as it should be. Given how he's the leader for the movement it speaks volumes that he's not getting his own leftist allies up to speed on actions like this he should know how to avoid. It's just not a priority for him, which is shameful considering the Black vote are the backbone of the party.

To be honest, even though I'm black none of this really surprises or upsets me -- both Biden and Sanders are from a different era, when racial matters were viewed very differently from today. Holding either of them to account for things they might have said back then is always going to be fertile ground for political land mines, and personally I'm more interested in what they've done in the last decade or so than what they did back before many of us were born.

Sanders' biggest problems come from his lack of engagement with the black community until he needed black votes -- what he or Biden might have said forty or fifty years ago mainly just opens them up to questions of what they've done since then to address those shortcomings.

In defense of Sanders what I think he meant by the Apartheid comparison is the Marxist belief that working people (regardless of race) are akin to slaves of their employers due to exploitation. I'm not saying I totally agree rather I understand the framing device he used. I very much doubt Sanders meant anything overtly malicious by his insensitive comment.

Agreed -- but Sanders had best be prepared to address these controversies openly, just as Biden had to with Kamala.

On a related note, word is that Kamala will likely endorse Biden but one wonders if Warren will do the same for Sanders if it comes to that.

[Farealmer]

The only actual leftist movement you mentioned was Occupy.

What I'm saying is that there can be no sustained leftist movement in America as long as the Democratic party continues to exist in its current state. It will never get the numbers it needs and its members will not go the distance they need to as long as the Democrats are there to offer the pretense of resistance from a position of power. A position that others against the right-wing don't occupy.

Do you think that if the Democrats were to be completely demolished, that everyone opposed to the GOP would just sit back and let the GOP run wild? No, they'd engage in direct action that the Democrats would never have approved of.

Once people realize they can't count on the Democrat's, that's when a leftist movement capable of defeating the right-wing will take off.

Care to inform me of which country has done this successfully and have it stick to this day?

[Zauriel]

My money is on Sanders. Looks like Iowa and soon the rest of the country is going to feel the Bern.

[WestPhillyPunisher]

Democratic Presidential Candidates Barnstorm Iowa On Eve Of Caucuses

The candidates hustled across the state trying to fire up voters and make a last appeal to undecideds.

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Pompeo Pushes Free Press For Kazakhstan After Barring NPR Reporter From Trip

“As a journalist, I’m sure you know the good work the State Department does to train journalists in press freedoms,” the secretary of state told a Kazakh reporter. Pompous Pompeo exuded all kinds of hypocrisy.

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Joe Biden Could Face Impeachment Over Ukraine If He Wins: GOP Senator

“I think this door of impeachable whatever has been opened,” warned Joni Ernst of Iowa. Oh, WBEEEEEEEE....!

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Taxpayers Get $3.4 Million Tab So Trump Can Host Super Bowl Party For His Club Members

The president’s latest trip to his Palm Beach resort and nearby golf course brings the taxpayer-funded total for his golfing hobby to $130.4 million. And the stupid white trash that voted for Trump and continue slurping the Grifter-in-Chief are paying the bill along with everyone else.

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Mitch McConnell’s New Legacy: Impeachment Trial Rigger For Donald Trump

The Senate leader has gone from admiring Henry Clay to packing the courts to guaranteeing the acquittal of a president caught cheating ahead of an election. “History is going to remember him not for being a great legislator, but as a wingman to Donald Trump. He’ll be seen as the leading sycophant to Donald Trump.”

[jetengine]

I kinda want the GOP to impeach Biden, just because it'll get nowhere and hopefully start the ball rolling on refining the American system since Impeachment is worthless.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

My prediction is Bernie Sanders wins the Iowa Caucus (probably by a fair margin), I'm not saying this is a good (or bad thing) rather it is what (I think based upon the evidence including polls & crowd sizes) will happen.

He’ll likely win Iowa based on the way polls are trending right now and that will pretty much shore up a lead in NH. At that point he will be viewed as a clear top tier contender and it will likely make him the person progressives see winning out between the Sanders vs Warren battle.

Where it gets more interesting is how much eating two high profile losses hurts Biden. Bernie and Steyer see making gains on him in SC. That’s going to be amplified with more losses. Also Bloomberg is about to make a huge play and he’s going to take some from Biden.

Primaries are a marathon, not a sprint. The national poll doesn’t matter. You just need to be ahead in the right states on the right days and it’s about picking your spots and allocating resources wisely.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

Care to inform me of which country has done this successfully and have it stick to this day?

The issues with this is that you can go to most European countries and the center there is basically where Sanders and Warren are trying to take America. It’s just over there it’s kind of a given and not viewed as some big revolution

[WestPhillyPunisher]

I'm not making any predictions about who wins the Iowa Caucus. After Trump shocked the world by winning the presidency nearly four years ago, that showed me handicapping politics is a fool's errand not even Vegas bookmakers would waste their time with. Short and sweet, anything could happen tonight, and probably will, so I'll just wait until tomorrow to read about the results.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

I'm not making any predictions about who wins the Iowa Caucus. After Trump shocked the world by winning the presidency nearly four years ago, that showed me handicapping politics is a fool's errand not even Vegas bookmakers would waste their time with. Short and sweet, anything could happen tonight, and probably will, so I'll just wait until tomorrow to read about the results.

Honestly there were plenty of models that gave Trump a real chance. The thing is polls are very malleable so things can change dramatically in the days between the last polls and the election. Trump always had a path and was trending the right way at the end, it’s just at some point towards the end he crossed a razor thin line in a few midwestern states that got him the win.

A lot of people don’t understand polls though. The margin of error is significant and it accounts for variable. I’d something is within 1.5 to 3 points you have to view it more as a toss up. Also you have to realize a Presidential ejection is state by state.

Hillary was up big nationally. How could that be she lost? Right? Actually nationally she a 3 million more votes than Trump. It’s just in the really close states, Trump got slight wins in a winner take all scenario. If electoral votes were handed out proportionally, Hillary would have won because she would have got half the college votes in the Midwest and a good a chunk of Florida etc.

The polls were right, she was up nationally and Trump only won states that were close to begin with. The issue was mathematically Trump needed all the close states to go his way and that seems unlikely, but he was trending the correct way at the end. Also it basically came out that the internal campaign models knew it was going to be razor thin going into the night