All purpose news and politics thread part v: The quickening

[aja_christopher]

Of all the things that the American political system does to screw minorities out of leverage and influence, this isn't really one of them.

Never said it was designed that way.

Doesn't change the fact that it disenfranchises many minority voting interests from the get go in the only mainstream party that claims to represent them.

I'm not even stressing it that much -- just pointing out that it's an imperfect system, and that's just one aspect of said imperfection.

After all, people always talk about voter enthusiasm, but do you think a lot of voters of color are going to come out for Buttigieg?

What is he offering the Democratic "base" that would inspire them to do so?

Not to say he's less deserving of the presidency than any other candidate, but it's something that has to be factored into the general election.

[PwrdOn]

Never said it was designed that way.

Doesn't change the fact that it disenfranchises many minority voting interests from the get go in the only mainstream party that claims to represent them.

I'm not even stressing it that much -- just pointing out that it's an imperfect system, and that's just one aspect of said imperfection.

After all, people always talk about voter enthusiasm, but do you think a lot of voters of color are going to come out for Buttigieg?

What is he offering the Democratic "base" that would inspire them to do so?

Buttigieg is probably the one candidate that's most emblematic of the Democratic party as a whole. His campaign has made a calculated strategic decision that, since he's probably not going to get much minority support in the primaries anyway, he just won't bother trying to appeal to them and rely on white moderates to carry him to victory. Then in general minorities will have to turn out and vote for him because we won't have any other choice. Right now minorities just don't have much political leverage, and barring a major leftward shift in the national political landscape that's unlikely to change soon. The best chance we have is to adopt the most radical stances we can and disrupt the system enough to convince whites that they need us more than we need them, trying to play it safe and then demanding to be taken seriously when we're already a captive audience isn't going to work.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

Exactly. By the time the results are in from Iowa, few will remember the screw-up that caused all that needless angst.

It’s significant. Players like Buttigieg and Klobuchar spent a lot of resources on Iowa. If they did well and it’s inconsequential because of this **** up and NH drowns it out, this **** up could end their campaign.

Like I said earlier, if this happened in 2008, it would very likely have derailed the momentum Obama built off his Iowa victory and could have changed the race.

[aja_christopher]

Then in general minorities will have to turn out and vote for him because we won't have any other choice.

There is a choice -- people will choose not to show up if they don't see their interests being represented by either party.

I don't agree with the need for radicalism -- in my opinion we should just adjust the system to more closely align with the reality of American demographics, while protecting the voting rights of people of color and making it easier for everyone to vote.

[ed2962]

There is a choice -- people will choose not to show up if they don't see their interests being represented by either party.

I don't agree with the need for radicalism -- in my opinion we should just adjust the system to more closely align with the reality of American demographics, while protecting the voting rights of people of color and making it easier for everyone to vote.

Mark my words. This will happen if Buttigieg becomes the candidate.

[Michael Watkins]

It’s significant. Players like Buttigieg and Klobuchar spent a lot of resources on Iowa. If they did well and it’s inconsequential because of this **** up and NH drowns it out, this **** up could end their campaign.

that's great for Biden.

[Mister Mets]

Turnout for Democrats appears to be similar to what it was in 2016, and not the historic levels of 2008.

The first-time turnout is also pretty low, suggesting that we're not seeing energized new Democrats.

Share of first-time caucus goers, IA democratic caucus:

2004: 45%
2008: 57%
2016: 44%
2020: 35%

One view is that this is due to white people not being sufficiently energized.

@ZerlinaMaxwell: The Iowa caucus is essentially the perfect example of systemic racism. 91% of the voters in Iowa are white. The reason why you see a drop in turnout, I’m just speculating here, it could be perhaps that white children are not in the cages.

One view is that this is a bad sign for Democrats.

The results not coming in was just part of the #IowaCaucusDisaaster:

-Turnout was closer to 2016 levels and not the increased levels that Dems had been hyping

-The candidates all declaring victory has led to increased anger and conspiracy theories among Dem voters

Incredible.

Although a caucus-goer noted the realities on the ground and why it's a miserable experience for voters who are likely to come out for election day.

I don't think caucus turnout is indicative of general voter enthusiasm. A big problem with the caucus is that an expectation of high turnout can reduce turnout, because long lines create a traffic jam that adds a very long wait to what is already a big time committent.

I was at my caucus at 6:30. The line was insane. I'm sure some people in line flaked. It didn't start in earnest until well after 8pm. We had a 5 y/o and baby with us. We were praised for bravery and might have had trouble staying through first vote if our kids hadn't been gems.

If you're in a similar position, and expecting this, it's VERY reasonable to stay at home. The surfeit of candidates clustered around 15% also diffuses enthusiasm. You don't know if showing up for your fave will matter.

There's intense anti-Trump enthusiasm among Iowa Dems. But the caucus, as nice as it is as a collective affirmation of civic spirit, is a massive time-suck hassle, so tons of Iowans raring to vote against Trump at the polls reasonably wait to coalesce behind the D champion.

It could also be a matter of timing.

1) Both the 2016 and 2020 Iowa Caucus were held in early February (1st and 3rd, respectively), unlike 2008, when they were held January 3rd.

And that matters because the University of Northern Iowa, Iowa State, and likely the University of Iowa, were on break until the 12th.

[Superbat]

who created the app?

App made by Clinton campaign veterans’ firm is behind Iowa caucuses debacle

https://www.latimes.com/business/tec...ucus-app-snafu

"The app was coded by a tech firm run by veterans of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign, one of them a former Google engineer. It was designed to meet new requirements instituted after that year’s contentious Iowa caucuses, in which Clinton narrowly edged out Bernie Sanders. To provide more transparency this time around, the state party promised to report not just the final results but voters’ initial and second choices as well.

With so much more data to tabulate than in previous years, party leaders feared that the established system of reporting numbers by phone would be too slow. A proposal for a “tele-caucus” system enabling virtual voting was rejected as too vulnerable to hacking. An app that could instantaneously relay the numbers as soon as precinct chairs input them, developed by Democratic Party loyalists, looked like the perfect solution.

It turned out to be a crushing failure.

Throughout the long, long night, precinct chairs found themselves unable to make the app work properly. Some never figured out how to download or install it in the first place. Those who tried to report their results via a backup phone line found themselves on hold, sometimes for more than an hour.

Among Shadow’s clients is Pete Buttegieg’s presidential campaign, which paid $42,500 to the firm in July 2019 for “software rights and subscriptions,” according to disclosures to the FEC. A spokesman for the campaign says the payment was for a service used to send text messages to voters. The campaigns of Joe Biden and Kirsten Gillibrand, who withdrew from the race last year, also made smaller payments to Shadow."

If Pete or Biden become the nominee, Trump will use this against them in the general election. Pete wins, Trump says he cheated his way to become the nominee. Biden wins, Trump says Biden used the app to suppress the results of Iowa because he was losing. He brings up Hillary again, etc.

The Democrats have made it so easy for Trump to sow division.

[Celgress]

Nevada decided they won’t use the same app as Iowa

A smart decision lol.

[PwrdOn]

There is a choice -- people will choose not to show up if they don't see their interests being represented by either party.

I don't agree with the need for radicalism -- in my opinion we should just adjust the system to more closely align with the reality of American demographics, while protecting the voting rights of people of color and making it easier for everyone to vote.

Not showing up is tantamount to voting for Trump, cause you can be damned sure none of his supporters are going to be staying home on election day. Pushing for electoral reform is also sort of a dead end, because the entrenched interests know that giving up control of the voting system essentially amounts to giving up all of their wealth and power, and they're not going to budge an inch on that unless the rest of us make their lives very difficult indeed. We have an opportunity in this moment where everybody's eyes are finally open to the sociopolitical reality of this country, let's not waste it by setting our bar at just removing Trump and giving up any hope of real change. If we do end up putting a Buttigieg or Klobuchar in office, we only have ourselves to blame when they spend the next four years breaking every promise they made on the campaign trail in the service of reaching out to Republicans yet again.

[Michael Watkins]

App made by Clinton campaign veterans’ firm is behind Iowa caucuses debacle

https://www.latimes.com/business/tec...ucus-app-snafu

"The app was coded by a tech firm run by veterans of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign, one of them a former Google engineer. It was designed to meet new requirements instituted after that year’s contentious Iowa caucuses, in which Clinton narrowly edged out Bernie Sanders. To provide more transparency this time around, the state party promised to report not just the final results but voters’ initial and second choices as well.

With so much more data to tabulate than in previous years, party leaders feared that the established system of reporting numbers by phone would be too slow. A proposal for a “tele-caucus” system enabling virtual voting was rejected as too vulnerable to hacking. An app that could instantaneously relay the numbers as soon as precinct chairs input them, developed by Democratic Party loyalists, looked like the perfect solution.

It turned out to be a crushing failure.

Throughout the long, long night, precinct chairs found themselves unable to make the app work properly. Some never figured out how to download or install it in the first place. Those who tried to report their results via a backup phone line found themselves on hold, sometimes for more than an hour.

Among Shadow’s clients is Pete Buttegieg’s presidential campaign, which paid $42,500 to the firm in July 2019 for “software rights and subscriptions,” according to disclosures to the FEC. A spokesman for the campaign says the payment was for a service used to send text messages to voters. The campaigns of Joe Biden and Kirsten Gillibrand, who withdrew from the race last year, also made smaller payments to Shadow."

If Pete or Biden become the nominee, Trump will use this against them in the general election. Pete wins, Trump says he cheated his way to become the nominee. Biden wins, Trump says Biden used the app to suppress the results of Iowa because he was losing. He brings up Hillary again, etc.

The Democrats have made it so easy for Trump to sow division.

thanks. i saw that this morning. but i wasn't going to post it without confirmation. if any of it is true, it's a bad look for, both, buttigeg and biden.

[MacrossPlus]

okay, so how big of a trainwreck is tonight's SOTU gonna be?

[Michael Watkins]

Not showing up is tantamount to voting for Trump, cause you can be damned sure none of his supporters are going to be staying home on election day. Pushing for electoral reform is also sort of a dead end, because the entrenched interests know that giving up control of the voting system essentially amounts to giving up all of their wealth and power, and they're not going to budge an inch on that unless the rest of us make their lives very difficult indeed. We have an opportunity in this moment where everybody's eyes are finally open to the sociopolitical reality of this country, let's not waste it by setting our bar at just removing Trump and giving up any hope of real change. If we do end up putting a Buttigieg or Klobuchar in office, we only have ourselves to blame when they spend the next four years breaking every promise they made on the campaign trail in the service of reaching out to Republicans yet again.

if my option is Klobuchar or Trump i'm going straight to the bar after voting.

[Michael Watkins]

okay, so how big of a trainwreck is tonight's SOTU gonna be?

he'll mention the impeachment 5 minutes in. and will riff on the DNC's incompetence in Iowa shortly for returning to bragging about the economy.

[Superbat]

he'll mention the impeachment 5 minutes in. and will riff on the DNC's incompetence in Iowa shortly for returning to bragging about the economy.

"The Democrats can't even run an app, how can you trust them to run the country and keep you safe?"