All purpose news and politics thread part v: The quickening

[numberthirty]

What you seem to fail to understand is that they run all the time and -- like Sanders -- they fail to even make it out of the primaries into the general.

I don't have time to explain this to you -- let's agree to disagree until you learn to do your own research.

Which Joe Biden has never done.

Any talk of "Explanation" or "Research" should be able to account for exactly why there is a better bet in Biden even though he has the same record or Democratic Primary wins as Sanders.

Otherwise?

Anyone can see the "Never Made It Out Of The Primary..." bit for what it is.

Namely something that would have disqualified HRC last time out based on her previous primary performance.

[The Overlord]

Hillary was very close in several swing states and won all of those states head to head with Bernie. Prior to Iowa Biden's polling in those places was much stronger.

The reasoning should be obvious. These are swing voters precisely because their politics are nowhere near the fringes. So ideas further toward the fringes are highly likely (though not certain) to scare them off.

If Bernie wins the nomination its hard to see him winning over those swing voters. As of now he is banking on new voters and enthusiasm to fill that gap.

I have my doubts but he has time to prove he can do it if he wins.

But Hillary did not win the Swing States in a general election against Trump, Kerry did not win the Swing States in 2004 against Bush.

If Biden is chosen and loses to Trump, than what, we do this again in 2024 and just hope it works? I think it's fair to ask whether this best the strategy at this point.

Are we treating this as an actual falsifiable theory or an article of faith?

[numberthirty]

But Hillary did not win the Swing States in a general election against Trump, Kerry did not win the Swing States in 2004 against Bush.

If Biden is chosen and loses to Trump, than what, we do this again in 2024 and just hope it works? I think it's fair to ask whether this best the strategy at this point.

At the very least, "Is That Seriously The Whole Plan?..." is what that should be able to answer.

[Theleviathan]

But Hillary did not win the Swing States in a general election against Trump, Kerry did not win the Swing States in 2004 against Bush.

If Biden is chosen and loses to Trump, than what, we do this again in 2024 and just hope it works? I think it's fair to ask whether this best the strategy at this point.

Are we treating this as an actual falsifiable theory or an article of faith?

You completely dodged my points. Why would we run someone who has consistently polled poorly in swing states? Hillary and Kerry failed, sure, but thats irrelevant to Bernie and Warren's polling in places like OH, PA, FL, NC, etc.

Why should we run someone people in those places, in 2016 and 2018 and today, show no appetite for left wing politicians?

Buttigieg and Biden cant point to 2018 and say...."I'm just like the people who swept into power there. I can deliver wins" Bernie has no such argument and poor polling. So I have my reasons....time for you to actually counter those facts. (And before the Bernie trolls roll out, not saying these are certainties....just legitimate weaknesses to be overcome)

[The Overlord]

You completely dodged my points. Why would we run someone who has consistently polled poorly in swing states? Hillary and Kerry failed, sure, but thats irrelevant to Bernie and Warren's polling in places like OH, PA, FL, NC, etc.

Why should we run someone people in those places, in 2016 and 2018 and today, show no appetite for left wing politicians?

Buttigieg and Biden cant point to 2018 and say...."I'm just like the people who swept into power there. I can deliver wins" Bernie has no such argument and poor polling. So I have my reasons....time for you to actually counter those facts.

Didn't the polls say Hillary would win the Swing States in 2016? Clearly that did not happen.

What evidence do you have that Sanders or Warren would do worse in the swing states over Biden or Buttiege? The polls that turned out to be wrong last time? Why will Biden or Buttiege do better than Hillary or Kerry did, what is different this time?

[numberthirty]

You completely dodged my points. Why would we run someone who has consistently polled poorly in swing states? Hillary and Kerry failed, sure, but thats irrelevant to Bernie and Warren's polling in places like OH, PA, FL, NC, etc.

Why should we run someone people in those places, in 2016 and 2018 and today, show no appetite for left wing politicians?

Buttigieg and Biden cant point to 2018 and say...."I'm just like the people who swept into power there. I can deliver wins" Bernie has no such argument and poor polling. So I have my reasons....time for you to actually counter those facts. (And before the Bernie trolls roll out, not saying these are certainties....just legitimate weaknesses to be overcome)

Fact: Polling was telling us that Biden was looking pretty good in Iowa right up until he wasn't.

[Zauriel]

Didn't the polls say Hillary would win the Swing States in 2016? Clearly that did not happen.

What evidence do you have that Sanders or Warren would do worse in the swing states over Biden or Buttiege? Why will Biden or Buttiege do better than Hillary or Kerry did, what is different this time?

Because the swing states are not as blue as California. Besides, Buttigieg didn't have a history of scandal like Hillary or Kerry. One of the reasons why Kerry lost was because he was slow to respond to questions about why he threw his medals away on the ground. The moderate voters saw him as too liberal to be president.

Benghazi and the emails may have hurt Hillary's chances of an election victory.

Hunter's involvement in Ukraine may have hurt Joe Biden's chances of getting elected.

[The Overlord]

Because the swing states are not as blue as California. Besides, Buttigieg didn't have a history of scandal like Hillary or Kerry. One of the reasons why Kerry lost was because he was slow to respond to questions about why he threw his medals away on the ground. The moderate voters saw him as too liberal to be president.

Benghazi and the emails may have hurt Hillary's chances of an election victory.

Hunter's involvement in Ukraine may have hurt Joe Biden's chances of getting elected.

I think Buttiege has more skeletons then you may know about:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.the...h-bend-indiana

[Zauriel]

Eisenhower, Nixon, Bush Sr. and Bush Jr. were moderates. even Ronald Reagan leaned to the center.

Small Business Administration (SBA) was created by President Eisenhower, a federal institution that Republicans hated and opposed. In 1996, the Republican-controlled House of Representatives planned to eliminate the SBA but failed. Bush Administration also tried to end the SBA loan program
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_...Administration



Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) was created by President Nixon in 1970. President Richard Nixon was the one who proposed the establishment of EPA on July 9, 1970. That's not a very Republican thing to do.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United...tection_Agency

[The Overlord]

Eisenhower, Nixon, Bush Sr. and Bush Jr. were moderates. even Ronald Reagan leaned to the center.

Small Business Administration (SBA) was created by President Eisenhower, a federal institution that Republicans hated and opposed. In 1996, the Republican-controlled House of Representatives planned to eliminate the SBA but failed. Bush Administration also tried to end the SBA loan program
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_...Administration



Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) was created by President Nixon in 1970. President Richard Nixon was the one who proposed the establishment of EPA on July 9, 1970. That's not a very Republican thing to do.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United...tection_Agency

Those days are long gone, I think the GOP turned hard right in the early 90s and never looked back.

Really Reagan shifted the Overton window to the right and no one tried to readjust it, Bill Clinton just accepted the Overton Window had moved and moved the Dems to the right on key issues like financial issues and legal policies. The longer the Overton window remains like this, the worst things will get.

[Theleviathan]

Didn't the polls say Hillary would win the Swing States in 2016? Clearly that did not happen.

What evidence do you have that Sanders or Warren would do worse in the swing states over Biden or Buttiege? The polls that turned out to be wrong last time? Why will Biden or Buttiege do better than Hillary or Kerry did, what is different this time?

Yes the polls. And Hillary's 2016 trouncings of Bernie in those states. Do you have something else?

[Theleviathan]

Fact: Polling was telling us that Biden was looking pretty good in Iowa right up until he wasn't.

Yes. It does not, however, in any way answer my challenge. All available evidence says Bernie has an uphill climb in swing states. So far you and Overlord have offered "But Hillary!" to combat this.

You're making my point.

[The Overlord]

Yes the polls. And Hillary's 2016 trouncings of Bernie in those states. Do you have something else?

Then why didn't Hillary win those Swing States against Trump? What is different this time? What guarantees are there that Buden or Buttiege will win those Swing states?

Yes. It does not, however, in any way answer my challenge. All available evidence says Bernie has an uphill climb in swing states. So far you and Overlord have offered "But Hillary!" to combat this.

You're making my point.

Except it is fair to ask what is different this time? Why will this tactic work now when it did not work in 2016? Are you going to answer this to me or dodge again?

Are you promoting a falsifiable theory or an article of faith?

[Theleviathan]

Then why didn't Hillary win those Swing States against Trump? What is different this time? What guarantees are there that Buden or Buttiege will win those Swing states?

You need to answer my question first. I wont play this game. You asked me what their argument is. I never claimed it was ironclad (shit...I made that clear twice!), just stated their argument. An argument with some merit.

Now...your turn. How does Bernie win in places his positions have lost? That he lost in 2016? That he is not polling well in? Please don't "whatabout" again.

[numberthirty]

Yes. It does not, however, in any way answer my challenge. All available evidence says Bernie has an uphill climb in swing states. So far you and Overlord have offered "But Hillary!" to combat this.

You're making my point.

The same evidence that had Biden in first and not fourth in Iowa.

If you look at that and think "Nope! Still Reliable Indicator Of The Future!!", your call.

I see "Evidence..." that is sorta shaky. At best.

Folks wanting to make predictions based on it doesn't make it less suspect.