All purpose news and politics thread part v: The quickening

[Theleviathan]

Buttigieg trailing Bernie by only 4% in NH is another win for him. I expected something like a 8-12% margin, especially given Bernie's performance in the same state in 2016.

Klobuchar is an obvious winner, she went from "should drop out" to viable campaign. The results are mostly good, but some bad for Bernie. Good in that going into Super Tuesday there are at least three serious moderates splitting votes and Biden still lingering. The bad....three (four if you count Biden) moderates are splitting votes and he isn't generating the separation you'd expect in that scenario. The exit info on tonight is going to be interesting.

[Theleviathan]

If that is the lay of the land, who is the candidate running for the nomination that is most likely to back those public workers?

In a situation where even some of the existing unions are having to go out on wildcat strikes, isn't a candidate who will support them a sensible choice?

Politely.....you can troll elsewhere. You are incapable of keeping up with a nuanced discussion and I'm over attempting a discussion you are incapable or unwilling to have.

[numberthirty]

Buttigieg trailing Bernie by only 4% in NH is another win for him. I expected something like a 8-12% margin, especially given Bernie's performance in the same state in 2016.

Klobuchar is an obvious winner, she went from "should drop out" to viable campaign. The results are mostly good, but some bad for Bernie. Good in that going into Super Tuesday there are at least three serious moderates splitting votes and Biden still lingering. The bad....three (four if you count Biden) moderates are splitting votes and he isn't generating the separation you'd expect in that scenario. The exit info on tonight is going to be interesting.

https://www.rollcall.com/2020/02/10/...lege-students/

New Hampshire voting law bewilders college students

Democrats and advocates say they’re worried the law might prompt college students to sit out Election Day

A New Hampshire law tightening the rules around residency is spurring confusion in the state that hosts the country’s first primary Tuesday, with Democrats and advocates saying they’re worried the law might prompt college students to sit out Election Day.

“College towns are trying to minimize the effects of this, but it’s always hard to tell with students,” says Linda Fowler, a Dartmouth College government professor.

In 2018, the Republican-controlled legislature passed the law, which redefined resident and domicile to have the same meaning. Proponents of the law say it matches those in every other state and won’t impact voting.

The new law comes on the heels of Republican complaints over the 2016 Senate election victory of Democrat Maggie Hassan over Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte by only 1,017 votes out of 738,620 cast. In 2017, Kris Kobach, vice chairman of a since-disbanded presidential commission on voting fraud, said it was “likely” that more than 5,000 out-of-state voters had illegally tipped the scales in favor of the Democrat. New Hampshire’s secretary of state said there was no proof for that claim.

State officials released a letter in November clarifying the effect of the law, saying it means registering to vote triggers residency requirements under the motor vehicle code. That gives registrants 60 days to change a driver’s license if they drive in New Hampshire and to change their vehicle registration if they’re the owner.

...

In an ongoing case, the American Civil Liberties Union is suing on behalf of two Dartmouth students, alleging the law acts as a poll tax in the form of car registration fees and that it puts a burden on students, young people and new voters.

The law’s sponsor, state Rep. Sherman Packard, says his intent was to restrict voting to residents, which is in line with laws in every other state. He expects no impact in election results.

In the town at the center of the ACLU’s lawsuit, though, Hanover Town Clerk Betsy McClain says messaging around the law has been confusing and some students have gotten the false impression that they need a state driver’s license to vote.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

Buttigieg trailing Bernie by only 4% in NH is another win for him. I expected something like a 8-12% margin, especially given Bernie's performance in the same state in 2016.

Klobuchar is an obvious winner, she went from "should drop out" to viable campaign. The results are mostly good, but some bad for Bernie. Good in that going into Super Tuesday there are at least three serious moderates splitting votes and Biden still lingering. The bad....three (four if you count Biden) moderates are splitting votes and he isn't generating the separation you'd expect in that scenario. The exit info on tonight is going to be interesting.

Can't compare to 2016. 2016 was a two person race and it's easier to get higher margins. This year there are 5 viable canidates in NH and one of them is also in a bordering state (something Sanders didn't have pulling from him last time). Also only 39%.

[aja_christopher]

I think the Republicans parlayed the impeachment issue into an effective public attack on Biden. How much that played into his drop I'm not sure, but it's a factor. I don't think even the most fever-pitched Sanders' lover thought it'd be Klobuchar and Buttigieg in the moderate lane after New Hampshire. (Hell, Knight of the Lake insulted me repeatedly for suggesting that this very scenario was possible)

Biden's descent has been rapid and substantial. I think there is a great deal of that which can be cited as Republican driven. The question now is, how quickly do the black voters who have been Biden's base of support abandon ship and to whom do they flock.

Part of the support for Bloomberg is probably based on the fact that he recently addressed racism in America directly and proposed a substantial investment in black communities -- how sincere that is remains to be seen, but at least he doesn't treat race as a non-issue (or a talking point) while campaigning, like many other candidates who only use it as a bludgeon against their opponents.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...s-biden-100992
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN1ZI0N1
https://www.blackenterprise.com/bloo...d-empowerment/

Like I said before, you can't just complain about how bad other candidates are -- you have to step up and show why you might be the better alternative.

Anyway, I'll wait and see what the voters actually say instead of depending on polling -- the only states that have spoken so far are basically 90% white, so I don't put much stock in any results released thus far being representative of the party as a whole.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

I'm convinced Chuck Todd doesn't understand elections. He's making the same reductive talking points people said about Trump when he was winning. It's a flawed methodology because elections are more complicated than that.

[Theleviathan]

Can't compare to 2016. 2016 was a two person race and it's easier to get higher margins. This year there are 5 viable canidates in NH and one of them is also in a bordering state (something Sanders didn't have pulling from him last time). Also only 39%.

If the gap widens that certainly is better for Sanders. But right now Klobuchar and Buttigieg are splitting nearly half the vote. Warren isn't siphoning much from Bernie, hell, this primary is basically the nail in her coffin.

There are still great things about this result for Bernie, but the margin is tighter than Bernie supporters expected. That's not a positive.

[Kirby101]

I'm convinced Chuck doesn't understand.......

Is all you need to say.

[Gray Lensman]

I think the Republicans parlayed the impeachment issue into an effective public attack on Biden. How much that played into his drop I'm not sure, but it's a factor. I don't think even the most fever-pitched Sanders' lover thought it'd be Klobuchar and Buttigieg in the moderate lane after New Hampshire. (Hell, Knight of the Lake insulted me repeatedly for suggesting that this very scenario was possible)

Biden's descent has been rapid and substantial. I think there is a great deal of that which can be cited as Republican driven. The question now is, how quickly do the black voters who have been Biden's base of support abandon ship and to whom do they flock.

I think Biden's drop may be even more self-driven. His responses to criticism from voters has been.....less than inspiring.

[numberthirty]

I think Biden's drop may be even more self-driven. His responses to criticism from voters has been.....less than inspiring.

While I agree that is the case, we're two contests in. While I have personal doubts about Biden and things that seem like they might hurt him, there's no telling if this might be a "Reality Check" for him.

It's also hard to tell how true his supporters could stay from here on out.

[JCAll]

I think the Republicans parlayed the impeachment issue into an effective public attack on Biden. How much that played into his drop I'm not sure, but it's a factor. I don't think even the most fever-pitched Sanders' lover thought it'd be Klobuchar and Buttigieg in the moderate lane after New Hampshire. (Hell, Knight of the Lake insulted me repeatedly for suggesting that this very scenario was possible)

Biden's descent has been rapid and substantial. I think there is a great deal of that which can be cited as Republican driven. The question now is, how quickly do the black voters who have been Biden's base of support abandon ship and to whom do they flock.

Well, Trump wanted to use Ukraine to smear Biden and get him out of the race, he seems to be collapsing; I don't know if it was the Ukraine that did it, but it doesn't matter, King Moron got what he wanted.
Of course, he had to take an impeachment to do it, but there's no actual punishment for that in a GOP world. Heck, maybe he'll take another impeachment closer to the election to knock out a frontrunner.

[aja_christopher]

Well, Trump wanted to use Ukraine to smear Biden and get him out of the race, he seems to be collapsing; I don't know if it was the Ukraine that did it, but it doesn't matter, King Moron got what he wanted.
Of course, he had to take an impeachment to do it, but there's no actual punishment for that in a GOP world. Heck, maybe he'll take another impeachment closer to the election to knock out a frontrunner.

People keep underestimating the Republican party to their peril.

[Theleviathan]

I think Biden's drop may be even more self-driven. His responses to criticism from voters has been.....less than inspiring.

That's certainly part of it. The Biden of even four years ago was much more charming and jovial. This Biden is angry and bitter.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

If the gap widens that certainly is better for Sanders. But right now Klobuchar and Buttigieg are splitting nearly half the vote. Warren isn't siphoning much from Bernie, hell, this primary is basically the nail in her coffin.

There are still great things about this result for Bernie, but the margin is tighter than Bernie supporters expected. That's not a positive.

The gap already widened a point with the next batch of results. It's all relative. A month ago Buttigieg was surging in NH and a loss there would have looked devastating. Now Sander's started surging at the right time a week or so ago and we are comparing his results to last year. Part of that was Biden taking a hit. Buttigieg ultimately is going to have a war with Biden and Bloomberg soon to see if one of them can consolidate the moderate lane.

Warren is done imo. She's under 10% in a state that is closely connected with her state. I legit thought she was going to drop out when she started talking. I'm convinced MA is the only thing keeping her close.

[Tami]

The gap already widened a point with the next batch of results. It's all relative. A month ago Buttigieg was surging in NH and a loss there would have looked devastating. Now Sander's started surging at the right time a week or so ago and we are comparing his results to last year. Part of that was Biden taking a hit. Buttigieg ultimately is going to have a war with Biden and Bloomberg soon to see if one of them can consolidate the moderate lane.

Warren is done imo. She's under 10% in a state that is closely connected with her state. I legit thought she was going to drop out when she started talking. I'm convinced MA is the only thing keeping her close.

Warren came in 3rd in Iowa, I wouldn't write her off just yet. Lets' see how well she does in the next few states.