I don't know if it's the Ukraine. Democrats aren't all that interested in that and they are the ones voting right now.
Biden's issue is that his whole argument was "I'm the adult in the room who can win and I will bring you back to the Obama era". Then he starts losing, so the electability argument is gone. He's making mistakes and being a gaffe machine, the adult argument is gone. And as popular as Obama was, he's not there anymore and it's easier to seperate the popular man from the actual time period.
I agree. I think all the Hunter Biden attacks did have an effect. Even if there was nothing there it had the desired effect of muddying everything. But watching some of the coverage a lot of the pundits brought up Biden was weirdly shielded from appearances on the cable shows and big interviews as well. He and his campaign kind of let trump and fox news speculation about Hunter become "real".
His "elect ability argument is way dented. But, staying in he can argue that Iowa and NH really only focus on white voters. There are not nearly representative of the diversity of the country where Klobucar and Pete are significantly weak right now in their outreach.
Klobuchar somehow needs to magically grow her campaign and find money quickly to build on the momentum. The money argument is a strong reason Bloomberg is still being discussed.
Even where he is a non factor in the election tonight his ads are all over cable news
Last edited by kidfresh512; 02-11-2020 at 07:30 PM.
Being honest is helpful. If I had declared a month ago that Sanders would beat Buttigieg by 5% in New Hampshire you'd have gone on an epic rant deriding me. Even a week ago if I had said Buttigieg and Klobuchar would get nearly 50% of New Hampshire you'd have similarly gone on a rant. This result is a mix of good and bad for Bernie and the bad is that simply isn't enough of a margin to feel happy about.
Losing this badly in NH is going to ding her. She would need a massive rally that I just don't see. I can't envision a scenario where she take a huge blow in NH and turns that into momentum to jump 10 points in Nevada, then lose badly in SC anyways. Her best and last chance is to bet everything on MA and try to have the biggest win of anybody in her homestate.
Biden must have got the news that Bloomberg is cutting into his African American support because he's going all in on that right now and completely ignoring NH and NV. Smart move. His gameplan is that Southern firewall holding up because he has questions now.
No I wouldn't have. I said back then that Buttigieg was threatening to be the spoiler for Sanders and Warren because he was surging in early states they needed to build momentum. Don't assume things. I made it very clear Buttigieg was going all in on first two states strategy and had potential to win that (though I said I doubt he parlays that into an actual nomination). Hell when Warren was surging she was winning N at a point, now she's at under 10%. Shit changes very fast. I didn't predict anything big Bernie until this recent surge.
I don't know.
Going in, I couldn't really see her taking from Bernie in NH and I couldn't really see her taking from either of folks that will probably round out the top three.
Just not her race. Hard telling if it really hurts her section of support(fundraising being the obvious exception).
You also were insulting to my contention that Buttigieg could win Iowa and have a path forward. I said that months ago and you acted like a dink about it.
He's now under a 3% lead. This is not what Bernie supporters thought they'd see tonight if they're being honest. Hell, I'm not even a Bernie cultist and I thought he'd win comfortably.
I thought he could win Iowa. I said I see no path for him to win the nomination. He's fucked in South Carolina. He's in 5th in Nevada and in 10 days needs to make up about 13 points to have a shot there. He's in single digits in MA and CA. He's polling at 5 in Texas. Those are significant states if you want the nom. His pathway was big wins in Iowa and NH and praying it mattered everywhere else. That was the game for him. He didn't. He basically got a tie in Iowa and loss in NH. I don't see his space in the hard blue states or the red states. Maybe the midwest, but Klobuchar is there now and the other frontrunners aren't doing bad there.
I don't know why you are assuming these things. I seriously thought Biden was going to walk away with this until about a month and a half ago.