All purpose news and politics thread part v: The quickening

[Theleviathan]

But you guys might be arguing past one another on the significance of polls. These are largely based on expectations and how it shapes the race, but I'm not sure it's been established what you guys think the numbers mean. Theleviathan hasn't really given (or been asked about) his perception about Sanders' odds of winning. Biden finishing second in Nevada means he's likelier to be the nominee than if he finished outside the top three, but it doesn't necessarily mean he'll be likelier than Sanders.

Right, there is a lot of context to every finish of every primary. I'm not sure why multiple people are being lectured by this poster on their "understanding of elections" but yet that same poster is acting as if primary finishes are black and white. The delegates, vote totals, trends, etc are not black and white issues.

I try to use polls as indicators, look at them as detailed as possible, and draw trends. In the end, though, the results are going to be our only true information. (Except Iowa, because those schmos can't figure it out)

[aja_christopher]

And South Carolina? Bernie has gained to some degree, but if you look at the polls that is anywhere between 2-10%. There is a rather large gulf there. 2% would represent nearly no gain from being the front-runner while 10% would be a huge step. We're going to have to see which end of that gulf he's on and where his support among black voters there lands. For Biden we'll have to see if the Steyer push holds up once the voting begins because it appears all of his lead was sapped by Steyer. If it holds and he only gets a narrow win in South Carolina it might be a win and it might net him delegates, but I'll be the first to say it's a loss relative to what he had hoped. We'll just have to see how the votes fall.

It says a lot that this conversation would be completely different if the Democratic primaries started in states that better reflected the demographics of the Democratic base and the country as a whole.

[Theleviathan]

It says a lot that this conversation would be completely different if the Democratic primaries started in states that better reflected the demographics of the Democratic base and the country as a whole.

Even South Carolina is probably a bad fit for that. I think something more like Michigan or Pennsylvania would be a better place to start.

[Tami]

Black college swimmer on team trip had gun pointed at his head by police

A black student at Eastern Illinois University returning from an out-of-state tournament with his teammates and coaches said several police officers handcuffed him, pointed a gun at his head and threatened to blow his head off in what turned out to be their search for a wanted suspect.

Butler said he was traveling on a bus with his team last February when it pulled over shortly after 8 p.m. near a rest stop in East Moline, Illinois, so the players could stretch their legs.

Butler got off, took a selfie in front of a roadway sign and was headed back toward the vehicle when several law enforcement vehicles pulled up. Officers exited with their guns drawn, the American Civil Liberties Union of Illinois, which is representing Butler in his lawsuit, said in a press release.

According to the lawsuit, the officers shouted at Butler to put his hands up and get down. He complied and did not resist, the suit states.

Several officers forced Butler to the snowy ground as he was handcuffed, with one putting his knee on the student's back and another pressing on his neck. One of the officers squatted down in front of him, put a gun to his forehead and said, "If you keep moving, I'm going to blow your f------ head off," the suit says.

A coach traveling with the team got off the bus and told the officers that Butler was a member of the school's swim team. Even after officers realized that he was not the person they were looking for, they refused to let him go and put him in the back of a squad car, the suit says.

"After several minutes of forcing Mr. Butler to lie down on the ground while handcuffed, Defendants allowed Mr. Butler to sit up. They did not, however, remove his handcuffs or inform him that he was free to go, even though they had already recognized that Mr. Butler was not the suspect for whom they were searching," the suit states.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

Pretty sure national polls predicted Hillary winning the 2008 primaries for a long time, and the 2016 GE polls very precisely predicted her Electoral College lead. Both meaningless. Utterly, desperately. completely meaningless in the system we have.

There’s a difference between a general and a primary. But never lacking in nuance..

[PaulBullion]

There’s a difference between a general and a primary. But never lacking in nuance..

Um.. You might want to re-read my post. Especially the first half.

Maybe 2 or 3 times.

Slowly.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

Um.. You might want to re-read my post. Especially the first half.

Maybe 2 or 3 times.

Slowly.

I did. You used an example of a general where Hillary Clinton won more votes overall (proving the polls right) and losing the electoral on states that were within the margin of error (reaffirming the methodology behind the polls).

The difference with a primary is that you are always playing a game of who will take who’s voters when someone drops out. That’s what head to heads are important for

[PaulBullion]

I did. You used an example of a general where Hillary Clinton won more votes overall (proving the polls right) and losing the electoral on states that were within the margin of error (reaffirming the methodology behind the polls).

The difference with a primary is that you are always playing a game of who will take who’s voters when someone drops out. That’s what head to heads are important for

Oh boy.

....

[PaulBullion]

Let's try the #30 method

Pretty sure national polls predicted Hillary winning the 2008 primaries for a long time, and the 2016 GE polls very precisely predicted her Electoral College lead. Both meaningless. Utterly, desperately. completely meaningless in the system we have.

I did. You used an example of a general where Hillary Clinton won more votes overall (proving the polls right) and losing the electoral on states that were within the margin of error (reaffirming the methodology behind the polls).

The difference with a primary is that you are always playing a game of who will take who’s voters when someone drops out. That’s what head to heads are important for

Nuance. Many want it, few see it.

[SquirrelMan]

Sometimes I cannot believe that this web site is free.

[Tami]

2020-02-15 Barb McQuade on Twitter This may be the most sinister tweet Trump has ever posted.jpg

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

Let's try the #30 method





Nuance. Many want it, few see it.

No the the polls predicted a national win fairly certainly and then had her in the margin of error on the key electoral states. Pollsters like Nate Silver took a beating because they laid out a real path for Trump. In the toss up states he needed to win the margin of error, he won. It's not really anybody's fault that you don't understand that concept.

[aja_christopher]

No the the polls predicted a national win fairly certainly and then had her in the margin of error on the key electoral states. Pollsters like Nate Silver took a beating because they laid out a real path for Trump. In the toss up states he needed to win the margin of error, he won. It's not really anybody's fault that you don't understand that concept.

I saw plenty of reports that showed that Trump had a clear path to election -- no beatings were given.

And then came Comey's comments on Hillary's emails.

Some people are learning the wrong lessons about 2016 regardless -- namely not to relive it.

[PaulBullion]

No the the polls predicted a national win fairly certainly and then had her in the margin of error on the key electoral states. Pollsters like Nate Silver took a beating because they laid out a real path for Trump. In the toss up states he needed to win the margin of error, he won. It's not really anybody's fault that you don't understand that concept.

Strawman. Again. even with me making it bright big and green.

On ignore you go.

[Steel Inquisitor]

In wave elections, which 2018 was kind of a weak example but whatever, what voters consider to be the identity of the national party tends to matter a lot more than the specific ideological leaning of your local representative. And the poster girl that year was certainly Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, even though she wasn't running a contested race in the general, the outsized media attention she and similar candidates definitely played a larger role in getting voters to the polls than the largely anonymous and uninspiring candidates people were actually voting for. Admittedly, this didn't always work, as candidates such as Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillum lost races that the Democrats probably should have won because their progressive bent galvanized Republican opposition against them.

A weak example because moderates won that year? In '18 voters sided against the leftists, despite all their gains -this is why the party remains in the leadership's hands. The Justice Democrats folded like a steel chair to Pelosi, as well. Cortez earned her victory, don't forget the context that her opponent did everything in their power to implode rather than take it seriously or she wouldn't have won while the current incarnation hasn't fought strong opponents like Cuomo or Schumer. Cortez got more attention after winning than before it, she went under the radar against Crowley - that was her strength in that election. Everyone underestimated her, they won't be doing that again. Where's your evidence that the voters who showed up in force where leftists? Why didn't more leftist politicians win? It mostly failed, and Gillum and Abrams defeats were due to the GOP going overboard in cheating to win. The Democrats have difficulty challenging the GOP when they do that, leftists haven't proven to have answers the party missed to assure victory.

There’s a difference between a general and a primary. But never lacking in nuance..

Moderates pass primaries more often than leftists, for example.