All purpose news and politics thread part v: The quickening

[Tazirai]

Warren just said "We Need A Better Pitch Than 'Let's Trade Our Arrogant Billionaire For Your Arrogant Billionaire."

The woman has a point.

Agreed. Also, I love how Pete made Bernies "SOCIALIST" point for him by mentioning Denmark.

[Theleviathan]

Almost word for word, dude said to Warren "Stop. Let Me Finish. They Didn't Like A Joke."

Bloomberg is a tool, but so is Trump. I don't know how any reasonable person can like the way he handled that issue, especially since Warren had just handled it with a much better message. Bloomberg's millionaire, three house argument is stupid and petty...but that's precisely who is up next in November for the winner.

Good part is, this is exactly what the primary is for. Get tested, get better.

[kidfresh512]

Post debate poll on Dailykos has Warren as the clear winner tonight. She has 63% over the whole field.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/202...dential-debate

She had the kind of performance that many people looking for the person that will confidently go toe to toe and call trump out to his face. Its just not enough to get her over sanders though. I dont see a path where she can overtake him. She needs his base to grow hers

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

For me it's also something a little more complex than a simple yes or no. If one person has 45% and the next two are in the teens, then 45% should get it. But if the leader is at 27% and the next two are 25%, and one of those is the acknowledged second choice of the other two, then it isn't as clear cut.

Okay put it this way. Let's say there's some big a hypothetical where someone wins enough that they are definitley going to get the most delegates, but at some point during the primary something big happens to change every thing. That canidate is charged with murder. That candidate went on a Donald Sterling level racist rant. Whatever. And then their support in the polls completely tanked and they became non viable in every contest going forward. However, they still retained a the most votes and delegates. Then it might be appropriate to stage an intervention.

That said... in the scenario you described, you are basically telling the 27% that their majority didn't matter and inviting them to stay home. The people in the two 25% coalitions would have to eat a loss and move on.

Basically, any scenario besides some completely crazy outlier would guarantee a Trump reelection.

[Tazirai]

Post debate poll on Dailykos has Warren as the clear winner tonight. She has 63% over the whole field.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/202...dential-debate

She crushed it tonight. My favorite part was when she hit Amy, Amy had the WTF! Face lol. ESPECIALLY after having come off the "we were chillin last night."

[numberthirty]

Okay put it this way. Let's say there's some big a hypothetical where someone wins enough that they are definitley going to get the most delegates, but at some point during the primary something big happens to change every thing. That canidate is charged with murder. That candidate went on a Donald Sterling level racist rant. Whatever. And then their support in the polls completely tanked and they became non viable in every contest going forward. However, they still retained a the most votes and delegates. Then it might be appropriate to stage an intervention.

That said... in the scenario you described, you are basically telling the 27% that their majority didn't matter and inviting them to stay home. The people in the two 25% coalitions would have to eat a loss and move on.

Basically, any scenario besides some completely crazy outlier would guarantee a Trump reelection.

The other thing about that scenario...

Trump will run like Walter Payton with that ball.

[Tami]

Post debate poll on Dailykos has Warren as the clear winner tonight. She has 63% over the whole field.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/202...dential-debate

Here is another poll, slightly different poll, from the Oregonian

Out of all of them, Warren and Sanders rated around 58% 'Did Well'. Though I think the only reason why Sanders is marked as doing well is because nearly everyone attacked Bloomberg and not him.

[Theleviathan]

Okay put it this way. Let's say there's some big a hypothetical where someone wins enough that they are definitley going to get the most delegates, but at some point during the primary something big happens to change every thing. That canidate is charged with murder. That candidate went on a Donald Sterling level racist rant. Whatever. And then their support in the polls completely tanked and they became non viable in every contest going forward. However, they still retained a the most votes and delegates. Then it might be appropriate to stage an intervention.

That said... in the scenario you described, you are basically telling the 27% that their majority didn't matter and inviting them to stay home. The people in the two 25% coalitions would have to eat a loss and move on.

Basically, any scenario besides some completely crazy outlier would guarantee a Trump reelection.

Let's be real, if it gets to the point at the convention where it is 27/25/25 for any candidate and the convention is contested....I can't imagine that working out well in any format or set of rules. Be open and transparent, yes, but hurt feelings and bitterness are the only sure outcome. Regardless of who it is, we should hope the winner of this primary is distant enough to avoid this from happening.

I grow more concerned by the day that it won't happen, however.

[numberthirty]

Just saw a "Favorable"/"Unfavorable" set of numbers with Bernie on top and Bloomberg coming in dead last.

So, yeah...

What's the specific case for Bloomberg?

[Tami]

Bloomberg apparently sent out a memo to some of the other candidates

Bloomberg camp's "dire" warning: Sanders soon unstoppable

Mike Bloomberg's campaign is sounding the alarm that Bernie Sanders will soon amass an unsurmountable delegate lead if the Democratic field stays split — and took the extraordinary step of suggesting laggards should drop out.

What they're saying: Kevin Sheekey, Bloomberg's top strategist, said: "The fact is if the state of this race remains status quo — with Biden, Pete and Amy in the race on Super Tuesday — Bernie is likely to open up a delegate lead that seems nearly impossible to overcome."

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Bloomberg campaign suggests other candidates drop out so Bloomberg can stop Sanders

I think Bloomberg has it backwards, his entry into the race is what's helping Sanders.

en. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) could soon build an "insurmountable" delegate lead, Michael Bloomberg's campaign warned in a memo, per Axios. And they think other, more centrist candidates should get out of the billionaire's way so he can stop him.

"The fact is if the state of this race remains status quo – with [former Vice President Joe] Biden, [former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor] Pete [Buttigieg], and [Sen.] Amy [Klobuchar (D-Minn.)] in the race on Super Tuesday — Bernie is likely to open up a delegate lead that seems nearly impossible to overcome," said Kevin Sheekey, Bloomberg's top strategist. "I don't think many people understand the dire consequences here."

In the memo, Sheekey and his colleague Howard Wolfson, wrote the three candidates mentioned above have "no path" to accruing delegates and would essentially block Bloomberg from ably challenging Sanders.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

Let's be real, if it gets to the point at the convention where it is 27/25/25 for any candidate and the convention is contested....I can't imagine that working out well in any format or set of rules. Be open and transparent, yes, but hurt feelings and bitterness are the only sure outcome. Regardless of who it is, we should hope the winner of this primary is distant enough to avoid this from happening.

I grow more concerned by the day that it won't happen, however.

Well yeah that's true. I don't think it comes down to that though.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

Bloomberg apparently sent out a memo to some of the other candidates

Bloomberg camp's "dire" warning: Sanders soon unstoppable




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Bloomberg campaign suggests other candidates drop out so Bloomberg can stop Sanders

I think Bloomberg has it backwards, his entry into the race is what's helping Sanders.

It definitley helped Sanders.

1. He weakened Biden and his southern support and opened lanes for Buttigieg and Klobuchar to fill that vacuum.
2. It made him the target of the debate tonight when Bernie as the current frontrunner should have been taking the most hits.

[Robotman]

It’s a rare night when liberals and conservatives can come together and laugh at a common foe. Bloomberg’s disastrous debate performance has united a nation!

[numberthirty]

It’s a rare night when liberals and conservatives can come together and laugh at a common foe. Bloomberg’s disastrous debate performance has united a nation!

Well...

When your nonsense has Klobuchar coming out like The Ultimate Warrior?

What in the heck were you thinking about?

[PaulBullion]

Warren just said "We Need A Better Pitch Than 'Let's Trade Our Arrogant Billionaire For Your Arrogant Billionaire."

The woman has a point.

Told you Bloomberg on stage would make this Liz' night.