All purpose news and politics thread part v: The quickening

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

I agree with much of this, but I don't think anyone is dropping out. Which is only going to make this uglier and uglier. It does benefit Sanders more overall, but it heightens the chances of a shit show convention. And that only benefits Trump.

Biden will win tonight but there are takeaways to be had: Is it a landslide? If it is, Sanders' supporters have to accept that it's a bad sign. It means one of the core constituencies of the Democratic party is rejecting him. Does South Carolina ultimately matter? No, but it is an indication of where established black voters who vote Democrat stand. (Our only one so far at least, the narrative could change) And there is no way to paint that as a positive for Sanders. He still has a diverse coalition, but that's a backbone of the party. If it's narrow win and Sanders has made headway, then the reverse is true....it's a very positive sign for him that he can convert those folks into willing voters. The exit poll numbers will be really interesting to watch.

Sorry didn't see this before the last vote. I wouldn't say it's a bad sign for Sanders. 2016 was a bad sign. He was horrible with black voters back then. He's made huge in roads. It's not surprising that the first black President's VP is going to do well with the black vote. Sanders is in second and is hovering around 20%. I don't think it means he's being rejected. I think it means they prefer Biden which is understandable. And it's worth noting, if Biden dropped out, most polls show that alot of his support would go right to Sanders.

[Theleviathan]

Sorry didn't see this before the last vote. I wouldn't say it's a bad sign for Sanders. 2016 was a bad sign. He was horrible with black voters back then. He's made huge in roads. It's not surprising that the first black President's VP is going to do well with the black vote. Sanders is in second and is hovering around 20%. I don't think it means he's being rejected. I think it means they prefer Biden which is understandable. And it's worth noting, if Biden dropped out, most polls show that alot of his support would go right to Sanders.

Yes, but it also means being the front-runner hasn't swayed those voters. He's made in-roads with young black voters, but the established black constituency doesn't seem to be embracing him. Even after he has won or semi-won every state until now.

I think it's a blow for Sanders that he didn't seem to increase that 20% from those victories. Something isn't resonating there.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

I agree we won't see people drop out. But don't you think some voters will switch allegiance at this point? Or does that wait until after Super Tuesday?

Ummmmm idk. Definitley not Super Tuesday. That's so soon I don't think anything changes today.

I would say afterwards you'll get a much clearer picture of the race. It really might be a commanding lead for Sanders and Biden might be the only one within earshot. But at that point it's so hard to tell. If everything was even and they dropped out today, I'd say you might get a war between Sanders and Biden. But if the drop out comes after Sanders has a commanding lead.... then alot of people are going to ride the wave. People like to think they horse they back is going to win. Also it increases the likelyhood that if you were a Buttigieg or Klobuchar supporter who might have had Biden as a second choice, but not enthusiastically, you might just get dejected and stay home.

L

[Theleviathan]

Ummmmm idk. Definitley not Super Tuesday. That's so soon I don't think anything changes today.

I would say afterwards you'll get a much clearer picture of the race. It really might be a commanding lead for Sanders and Biden might be the only one within earshot. But at that point it's so hard to tell. If everything was even and they dropped out today, I'd say you might get a war between Sanders and Biden. But if the drop out comes after Sanders has a commanding lead.... then alot of people are going to ride the wave. People like to think they horse they back is going to win. Also it increases the likelyhood that if you were a Buttigieg or Klobuchar supporter who might have had Biden as a second choice, but not enthusiastically, you might just get dejected and stay home.

L

I can't disagree with any of that. I do agree Sanders is going to have some big wins on Super Tuesday and none of the people keeping Biden down are going to bow out. That may be just enough time for Sanders to build a lead no one can catch. But then...as people do drop out, does Biden make the same case in 2020 that Sanders tried to make in 2016?

I don't know. I know this, as the numbers come in, this looks to be a dominant victory. We know the black voters boosting Biden tonight were key to the 2018 victories. I hope, if you're Sanders and his campaign, that you try and fix the failing this represents. Whatever you've tried so far, tonight shows it hasn't worked.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

Yes, but it also means being the front-runner hasn't swayed those voters. He's made in-roads with young black voters, but the established black constituency doesn't seem to be embracing him. Even after he has won or semi-won every state until now.

I think it's a blow for Sanders that he didn't seem to increase that 20% from those victories. Something isn't resonating there.

Back then it was Sanders and Clinton exclusively. 20% back then meant his opponent was winning 4/5ths of the state. Now it means Biden took the majority and he had the plurality of the other half of votes. There are more options now, so if black voters really didn't like him they could have went to Steyer or Klobuchar or Buttigieg or Warren. They didn't. Which tells me they like him, they just like Biden more. But again, if everyone is out the rest of the way, it indicates to me that southern states might go something like 40/60 splits beween Biden and Sanders, which is getting him a good share of delegates regardless and helping him weather the states he's not dominant in.

Edit: You also have to realize that Biden drew a line in the sand on South Carolina. He basically conceded Nevada for it. So he was fortifying it while everyone else was traveling all over the country

[Theleviathan]

Back then it was Sanders and Clinton exclusively. 20% back then meant his opponent was winning 4/5ths of the state. Now it means Biden took the majority and he had the plurality of the other half of votes. There are more options now, so if black voters really didn't like him they could have went to Steyer or Klobuchar or Buttigieg or Warren. They didn't. Which tells me they like him, they just like Biden more. But again, if everyone is out the rest of the way, it indicates to me that southern states might go something like 40/60 splits beween Biden and Sanders, which is getting him a good share of delegates regardless and helping him weather the states he's not dominant in.

We have to see how the final numbers play out, because with 3% in....Biden is landing an even bigger ass kicking than expected.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

We have to see how the final numbers play out, because with 3% in....Biden is landing an even bigger ass kicking than expected.

I kinda expected it. The polls there are historically usually consevative on the frontrunner

[Theleviathan]

I kinda expected it. The polls there are historically usually consevative on the frontrunner

Interesting. I expected something like 40-25. We might be looking at 55-15 here by the end of it.

[PwrdOn]

Nah everywhere has Biden winning. This was his state the whole way. The real test is if this will effect Super Tuesday or not

Yeah I know, but I just thought it was pretty funny and figured someone should save that picture for posterity.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

Interesting. I expected something like 40-25. We might be looking at 55-15 here by the end of it.

Yeah Biden was always banking on the South and they are historically lowballing the front runner in SC. This was big for him because he needed something to show he was viable. It's also the first primary state he's ever won. But you know how Buttigieg bet all his money on Iowa and New Hampshire? That's basically what Biden did for South Carolina. He's hoping this sparks something for him (but again Super Tuesday is so soon)

My takeaways are this. If you are Biden you have to feel good that you have older black southern voters firmly in your camp and that Bloomberg and Steyer can't completely pick them off of you. If you're Sanders, you still feel good about placing second in a race you could have done much worse in and have other big wins coming up.

Here's where the interesting spots show up when the map roles out. Sanders is likely going to win California big, he has a slight edge in Texas as well. If he holds onto those that's massive. He's winning Colorado. He's also winning MA right now. That's close.... but if he does it then he will get two things accomplished, he will win the biggest states up for grabs on Super Tuesday and have a huge lead AND he'll likely Warren drop out which leaves him as the loan progressive on stage. He's also in a pretty spot where aside from Texas, Biden isn't going to have a shot at stealing any major state but NC from him. Biden isn't in the top 4 polling wise in MA, UT, and CO. He's not in the top two in CA, VA. So if you're Bernie, even if someone can rally and pass you, it's not going to hurt you. I'd probably go straight to Texas if I was him and ensure the hell out of that because that could really be a checkmate move.

The bright spot for Biden and the real prize for him now has to be Florida. That is one place where he is up big, Sanders really struggles there, and he can make a persuasive argument on the grounds of a crucial swing state he could deliver. That's key for him now

[Theleviathan]

Yeah Biden was always banking on the South and they are historically lowballing the front runner in SC. This was big for him because he needed something to show he was viable. It's also the first primary state he's ever won. But you know how Buttigieg bet all his money on Iowa and New Hampshire? That's basically what Biden did for South Carolina. He's hoping this sparks something for him (but again Super Tuesday is so soon)

My takeaways are this. If you are Biden you have to feel good that you have older black southern voters firmly in your camp and that Bloomberg and Steyer can't completely pick them off of you. If you're Sanders, you still feel good about placing second in a race you could have done much worse in and have other big wins coming up.

Here's where the interesting spots show up when the map roles out. Sanders is likely going to win California big, he has a slight edge in Texas as well. If he holds onto those that's massive. He's winning Colorado. He's also winning MA right now. That's close.... but if he does it then he will get two things accomplished, he will win the biggest states up for grabs on Super Tuesday and have a huge lead AND he'll likely Warren drop out which leaves him as the loan progressive on stage. He's also in a pretty spot where aside from Texas, Biden isn't going to have a shot at stealing any major state but NC from him. Biden isn't in the top 4 polling wise in MA, UT, and CO. He's not in the top two in CA, VA. So if you're Bernie, even if someone can rally and pass you, it's not going to hurt you. I'd probably go straight to Texas if I was him and ensure the hell out of that because that could really be a checkmate move.

The bright spot for Biden and the real prize for him now has to be Florida. That is one place where he is up big, Sanders really struggles there, and he can make a persuasive argument on the grounds of a crucial swing state he could deliver. That's key for him now

Nice post in terms of laying it out. I think that's pretty on point. We'll see if things do shake out differently after tonight, that's the only wildcard.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

Nice post in terms of laying it out. I think that's pretty on point. We'll see if things do shake out differently after tonight, that's the only wildcard.

There's one other wildcard that I don't think will happen but would be huge if Joe could pull it off.... get Obama involved.

[Theleviathan]

There's one other wildcard that I don't think will happen but would be huge if Joe could pull it off.... get Obama involved.

I don't think that happens, but yes....that would be a game changer. Even Michelle Obama could be a game changer.

[Theleviathan]

Exit polls:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graph...olina-primary/

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

Exit polls:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graph...olina-primary/

Buttigieg and Klobuchar have a serious African American problem right now