All purpose news and politics thread part v: The quickening

[Gray Lensman]

For all his faults he not only ran with but stood by and defended the first Black President from an onslaught of vicious, racist, and targeted attacks for eight years.

He's not a perfect ally, and has done some really shitty things policy wise, but I view that as a character strength.

Additionally he's familiar which people in general, but especially older people, tend to favor.

And finally basically what I said above, there is a long history of "Movements" abandoning black people after their primary goal is met, so what difference does it make if we stick with the familiar or go with an ethereal sense "greater good" that might not make room for us anyway.

Obviously that's not a universal declaration to answer "why do black people?..." but for my specific atomized peer group those were a lot of the driving factors we kicked around.

Pretty much this. People were backing away from Obama for a time, Biden never really did, and I think that resonated. Plus, no one old enough to remember really holds the crime bill against him since even black community leaders were also supporting it at the time - if you want someone to blame the answer is "No! I'm Spartacus!"

Obama presided over probably the biggest civil rights push (sadly via executive orders and court pushes rather than legislation - Thanks for being such a jackass, Mitch!) since LBJ, and from the moment he left office Trump and his cronies have been trying to roll all of that back and then some.

Biden has some of the luster from Obama, and has in the eyes of many proven that he will return the loyalty black voters are showing to him by having acted as if he believes loyalty goes both ways. It's something no other person who was running had, probably not even the actual black candidates.

[TheDarman]

How am I fearmongering when you just brought up FDR and internment camps as an example of why minorities shouldn't trust progressives? By the way, the reason we like FDR is not because he's in any way perfect, but because policy wise he came fairly close to what we wanted. Obviously a blueblood aristocrat who might as well have Executive Overreach among his several middle names is not the type of leader we want going forward, we just think Social Security is kind of a neat idea is all.

See? I wasn’t fearmongering. I’m just saying that, messaging wise, you can do better at appealing to minorities by not constantly referencing back to the guy who threw people in internment camps and excluded black people from social welfare programs. I don’t think progressives today agree with it, but I think it is a self-inflicted wound that they would better to not have to deal with.

As for you fearmongering, I think it is just that to say that a candidate is crapping on Sanders, and those who support him, in a way he is not is a way to get progressives frightened. That’s literally trying to scare up dissolutions with Biden. He never said those things. He has merely said that Bernie won’t get things done (I agree) and Biden might (I also concur). That’s different from doing what Bloomberg did and call Bernie a communist dictator.

[WestPhillyPunisher]

I'm drawing a distinction between the campaign and voters here. My contention is that the Biden campaign are unprincipled cretins who are trying to win the votes of good and honest people by lying and pandering to them. Frankly, there isn't much that anyone can tell me at this point that would convince me otherwise, unless I'm TOTALLY blind to some huge piece of the puzzle.

How about providing proof of that claim, otherwise, you're just making **** up out of thin air. I'm not exactly a fan of Sanders, never have been, but I'm willing to be openminded, to listen and give him an honest chance, I'm not going to shut him down and dismiss him the way you've dismissed Biden because he's not a progressive or you don't trust him. Trust is hard to come by, I get that, and I'm not ready to jump on a live grenade for Sanders, but at least I'm doing my best to be fair, which is considerably more than you've done.

[TheDarman]

538 now projects that Biden has an 88% chance of winning the nomination outright before the convention (and without superdelegates).

In the thousands of simulations they ran, only 2% showed Bernie Sanders, going head-to-head with Biden (now with field consolidation, past models had all other candidates going right up until the convention because it was difficult to get a model to calibrate when candidates would drop out), and coming out on top before the convention. There are still 100 simulations out of every 1,000 they ran that showed no one getting a majority before the convention and thus going to a second ballot.

Overall, much better outlook for Biden. But, remember, there are still 12% of simulations that fall within two standard deviations of possibility that Biden doesn’t get it before the convention. I love statistical models.

And this model can change significantly if something major shakes up in the race. So that 2% chance for Bernie can exponentially increase should something bad happen for Biden (a real scandal, not a fake one like Burisma) or really good for Sanders (I don’t know if even a Warren endorsement would do much at this point though). This model really only works as a projection of simulations for the time being. As more states come in, potential simulations get widdled down (like a Bernie overperformance in Michigan might be one of the simulations he does well in—that goes away if he doesn’t. But if he does, it vastly improves the number of simulations where that is the case and should improve Sanders’ chances likewise.) and can either increase or decrease Biden’s chances. So, fun to look at, but this is a probability check should nothing significant change. We’ll see though.

[PwrdOn]

How about providing proof of that claim, otherwise, you're just making **** up out of thin air. I'm not exactly a fan of Sanders, never have been, but I'm willing to be openminded, to listen and give him an honest chance, I'm not going to shut him down and dismiss him the way you've dismissed Biden because he's not a progressive or you don't trust him. Trust is hard to come by, I get that, and I'm not ready to jump on a live grenade for Sanders, but at least I'm doing my best to be fair, which is considerably more than you've done.

I think the pandering is self-evident, at least to black voters, the lies are a bit harder to nail down because he's made so few concrete promises, but I think the track record of white moderate politicians speaks for itself.

[TheDarman]

I think the pandering is self-evident, at least to black voters, the lies are a bit harder to nail down because he's made so few concrete promises, but I think the track record of white moderate politicians speaks for itself.

You saw the Obama-Bernie ad right? I don’t know how you pander much more than that. At least, Biden can back up his history with Obama with eight years of friendship. Bernie has a history of wanting Obama primaried.

And, no, it doesn’t. Because Obama fits underneath your definition of “moderate” (i.e. not “progressive”) and he was the best president for social justice reforms that we’ve had since LBJ. That’s a record that I believe Biden is committed to build on, as are many of his supporters.

[PwrdOn]

You saw the Obama-Bernie ad right? I don’t know how you pander much more than that. At least, Biden can back up his history with Obama with eight years of friendship. Bernie has a history of wanting Obama primaried.

And, no, it doesn’t. Because Obama fits underneath your definition of “moderate” (i.e. not “progressive”) and he was the best president for social justice reforms that we’ve had since LBJ. That’s a record that I believe Biden is committed to build on, as are many of his supporters.

Eh, in 2008 Obama was sort of seen as a radical just by virtue of being black and running for president, not to mention he positioned himself as the hope and change candidate in contrast to Clinton who was the clear choice of centrists and the party establishment. Of course in hindsight he turned out to be a lot more moderate than anyone expected, but we didn't know that at the time.

And yeah, I do find Bernie running that Obama ad to be a dirty trick and I don't approve of it. But Obama really needs to just come out and endorse someone instead of trying to wield his influence indirectly like he is now. But given his background as a constitutional scholar, he's just way too devoted to process and convention and is likely appalled at the thought of a former president trying to rule from the shadows, no matter how much he might want to move the needle at this particular moment.

[SquirrelMan]

Question from the white british guy.

Why IS the Black community behind Biden besides (as mentioned earlier) "I worked with Obama and hot sauce" cause Warren was "Medicare and lets deal with Billionaires" Bernie was "Lets socialist this up" what Bidens thing ? Cause the only thing that I can clearly remember is him acting like Trumpublicans are an oddity and not a clear representation of the party

I'd suggest watching all 7 and a half minutes of this:


Here is Biden taking on the insanely popular and powerful Reagan administration, for no reason but his compassion for the suffering of black people.

A fight he would win, no less. The Senate passed sanctions against South Africa, and even (I believe for the first time) overrode Reagan's veto of the bill.

Maybe somebody should do a supercut of these Biden moments, instead of one of his stutters and brain farts?

[SquirrelMan]

To put this to you simply...



- Clinton needed Ross Perot to win.




.

Bush needed Nader to win.
Trump needed Jill Stein to win.

[TheDarman]

I'd suggest watching all 7 and a half minutes of this:


Here is Biden taking on the insanely popular and powerful Reagan administration, for no reason but his compassion for the suffering of black people.

A fight he would win, no less. The Senate passed sanctions against South Africa, and even (I believe for the first time) overrode Reagan's veto of the bill.

Maybe somebody should do a supercut of these Biden moments, instead of one of his stutters and brain farts?

Honestly, I’ve never seen this. Heard about it, but it is even better than I heard about. Thanks for sharing this. I’m even more at ease about my primary vote now.

[Kirby101]

- Clinton needed Ross Perot to pull of the win.

Not clear cut.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ar...92_140743.html

[TheDarman]

Eh, in 2008 Obama was sort of seen as a radical just by virtue of being black and running for president, not to mention he positioned himself as the hope and change candidate in contrast to Clinton who was the clear choice of centrists and the party establishment. Of course in hindsight he turned out to be a lot more moderate than anyone expected, but we didn't know that at the time.

And yeah, I do find Bernie running that Obama ad to be a dirty trick and I don't approve of it. But Obama really needs to just come out and endorse someone instead of trying to wield his influence indirectly like he is now. But given his background as a constitutional scholar, he's just way too devoted to process and convention and is likely appalled at the thought of a former president trying to rule from the shadows, no matter how much he might want to move the needle at this particular moment.

Obama has a much more important role in this primary to play than putting his finger on the scale. He is going to have to appeal to progressives, who like him despite being a “dirty corporatist”, and moderates alike to pull the party together as the previous president and last successful nominee. That’s where he belongs—not making candidate endorsements from the sidelines. I’m glad he knows that.

[PwrdOn]

Obama has a much more important role in this primary to play than putting his finger on the scale. He is going to have to appeal to progressives, who like him despite being a “dirty corporatist”, and moderates alike to pull the party together as the previous president and last successful nominee. That’s where he belongs—not making candidate endorsements from the sidelines. I’m glad he knows that.

Regardless of what he himself wants though, people are invoking his name to draw support for Biden, and now the Sanders campaign is trying to do the same. This could get out of hand quickly if he doesn't come out and make his position clear, we'll see how his strong his devotion to restraint is as the campaign gets ever more toxic with both sides trying to claim his cred.

And honestly, progressives never accused Obama of being a corporatist. I think his personal beliefs line up a lot more with ours than they did with people like Biden or Clinton, but his character dictated that he prioritize civility and compromise over radical agitation, which I think we are right to criticize him for as it proved ineffective against McConnell's stonewalling. I don't think anybody on the left ever attacked him for having no principles or having the wrong principles though, and honestly he's just too likable of a guy to really go after. Biden though, open season.

[TheDarman]

Regardless of what he himself wants though, people are invoking his name to draw support for Biden, and now the Sanders campaign is trying to do the same. This could get out of hand quickly if he doesn't come out and make his position clear, we'll see how his strong his devotion to restraint is as the campaign gets ever more toxic with both sides trying to claim his cred.

He doesn’t need to wait much longer. If Bernie can’t perform in Michigan the way he did 2016, he has lost too much of his support from 2016 and hasn’t expanded it enough where it mattered that the primary is pretty much over. Bernie also isn’t helping himself much by saying that he was never best friends with Obama and that they disagree on a great many issues.

[SquirrelMan]

Honestly, I’ve never seen this. Heard about it, but it is even better than I heard about. Thanks for sharing this. I’m even more at ease about my primary vote now.

Pass it on. Tweet it, Facebook it, tiktok it, grindr it.