All purpose news and politics thread part v: The quickening

[Gray Lensman]

He doesn’t need to wait much longer. If Bernie can’t perform in Michigan the way he did 2016, he has lost too much of his support from 2016 and hasn’t expanded it enough where it mattered that the primary is pretty much over. Bernie also isn’t helping himself much by saying that he was never best friends with Obama and that they disagree on a great many issues.

I think if Bernie loses Michigan by too large a margin it's over. If it's close it might still be over, but a sizable loss should make it obvious.

[Kirby101]

Reality is Biden is very likely the nominee. Not assured, but the Primary map highly favors him. Should be over by April.

So we should think about how to bring Bernie supporters on board.

[Billy Batson]

Reality is Biden is very likely the nominee. Not assured, but the Primary map highly favors him. Should be over by April.

So we should think about how to bring Bernie supporters on board.

By telling them nothing will change.

[kidfresh512]

Reality is Biden is very likely the nominee. Not assured, but the Primary map highly favors him. Should be over by April.

So we should think about how to bring Bernie supporters on board.

Individually what I have been doing with supporters in my life is keep stressing that there is no vast conspiracy in what happened here. Moderates consolidating is not a vast conspiracy. At the end of the day people are voting for getting rid of Trump. They don't "hate" Bernie. They are calculating their votes and its evident in exit polls and how many people waited till the last few days before voting to decide.

I just say that I voted for Bernie, I would vote for him again if that's the outcome of the Primary. But I don't worship him, and I am not oblivious to faults in his message, delivery and tone. And he MUST work on those if he wins the nomination still. It's not as easy as Yay hes elected here's Medicare for All. People are for it they aren't against it but they are wary about the realities of getting through Congress, and the courts. Especially when he isn't seen as being particularly easy to work with and negotiate and get people on board.

[SquirrelMan]

By telling them nothing will change.

Thank you for participating in the discussion. Your input is very valuable to us. We shall consider your suggestions at the appropriate time, Bill.

[Malvolio]

Individually what I have been doing with supporters in my life is keep stressing that there is no vast conspiracy in what happened here. Moderates consolidating is not a vast conspiracy. At the end of the day people are voting for getting rid of Trump. They don't "hate" Bernie. They are calculating their votes and its evident in exit polls and how many people waited till the last few days before voting to decide.

I just say that I voted for Bernie, I would vote for him again if that's the outcome of the Primary. But I don't worship him, and I am not oblivious to faults in his message, delivery and tone. And he MUST work on those if he wins the nomination still. It's not as easy as Yay hes elected here's Medicare for All. People are for it they aren't against it but they are wary about the realities of getting through Congress, and the courts. Especially when he isn't seen as being particularly easy to work with and negotiate and get people on board.

This is what I said four years ago. I voted for Bernie in the Primary, but I also said that I would vote for Hillary in the general election if she was the nominee. And for that, Jeff Weaver, Bernie's campaign manager, called me a Hillary-bot. And Bernie still has people like that working for him now.

[Celgress]

I think if Bernie loses Michigan by too large a margin it's over. If it's close it might still be over, but a sizable loss should make it obvious.

I tend to agree. Sanders' entire electability argument is centering around his perceived appeal to the "disenfranchised" working class. If he can't win a blue-collar state such as Michigan this argument is rendered moot.

[Tami]

This is what I said four years ago. I voted for Bernie in the Primary, but I also said that I would vote for Hillary in the general election if she was the nominee. And for that, Jeff Weaver, Bernie's campaign manager, called me a Hillary-bot. And Bernie still has people like that working for him now.

This is one of the biggest problem with Sanders campaign. If he can't manage to control his own people, to influence his own followers to act with civility and respect, then how can he manage to do so as President?

[jetengine]

In summary then

So overall Biden may not rock the boat visa vi getting new change in, beyond rolling back Trumps rollbacks abs maybe doing a bit more. But he's more reliably able to get votes dye to his familiar status, unthreatening message/status and has a history of stepping up for the black community.

Meanwhile Bernie wants positive change but may not necessarily be able to get it because he's overreaching (in the US system at least) and whilst his goals are noble they also unsettle people due to how radical it sounds and how shaky it seems, not helped ny his less reliable voter base.

[Billy Batson]

Thank you for participating in the discussion. Your input is very valuable to us. We shall consider your suggestions at the appropriate time, Bill.

Or maybe tell them to vote for Trump like Biden did.

[WestPhillyPunisher]

I tend to agree. Sanders' entire electability argument is centering around his perceived appeal to the "disenfranchised" working class. If he can't win a blue-collar state such as Michigan this argument is rendered moot.

Pennsylvania is nearly as blue collar as Michigan. On top of that, Sanders would have a particularly rough time of it in the Philadelphia region since Joe Biden's home state of Delaware is a hop, skip and Amtrak ride away, and Joe is looked upon as a favorite son here.

[Celgress]

Pennsylvania is nearly as blue collar as Michigan. On top of that, Sanders would have a particularly rough time of it in the Philadelphia region since Joe Biden's home state of Delaware is a hop, skip and Amtrak ride away, and Joe is looked upon as a favorite son here.

True, it'll be another big test for him. If he loses both states (Pennsylvania & Michigan) he's finished no matter what happens in the remaining states.

My biggest fear is he and his hardcore supporters won't go quietly either way, that they'll do a great deal of damage for the general on their way out.

[TheDarman]

Or maybe tell them to vote for Trump like Biden did.

I agree he should have more tact, but to imply Obama’s policy was more draconian than Trump’s is ridiculous.

So, yeah, if you truly believe it was worse under Obama, you can go ahead and vote for Trump and wait until it is even worse in his second term.

At the very least, Obama set priorities and then did what he could to ensure the deportations were actually representing his priorities by creating DACA and DAPA.

[WestPhillyPunisher]

True, it'll be another big test for him. If he loses both states (Pennsylvania & Michigan) he's finished no matter what happens in the remaining states.

My biggest fear is he and his hardcore supporters won't go quietly either way, that they'll do a great deal of damage for the general on their way out.

That's my concern as well. When it comes to those followers, it's either Bernie or bust, no compromise. If he loses the nomination, look for them to go scorched earth and cause trouble at the convention, then either stay home on election day, or vote for Trump out of spite. In my opinion, it doesn't matter who the candidate is, if it isn't Sanders, his people won't play along, and no amount of pleading from Bernie will get them to cooperate.

[Tami]

According to the latest polls for NJ on 538, Biden just shot up past Sanders: 35.6% to 30.5%

We still have 3 months before the NJ primary.

It's similar in NY: Biden at 32.5% and Sanders at 27.3%

And the same in PA: Biden at 37.4%, Sanders at 26.4%