All purpose news and politics thread part v: The quickening

[PaulBullion]

Speaking of Mississippi, have they finished counting yet? I want to find out of Sanders is not viable for realz.

#ShouldaGoneToSelma

[TheDarman]

Speaking of Mississippi, have they finished counting yet? I want to find out of Sanders is not viable for realz.

#ShouldaGoneToSelma

With 100% reporting, Sanders has fallen below 15% to 14.8% statewide, shutting him out of gaining any statewide delegates. The establishment strikes again! (Obviously it is predominantly black voters and working class voters—I’m just being tongue-in-cheek.)

[BeastieRunner]

Wall Street tumbles, Dow confirms bear market

Except for a brief "panic dip" in late December 2018, the DJI is now at a level last seen in November 2017.

A few more days like today, and the stock market will be back at the point where Trump inherited it from Obama.

I mentioned it earlier in the thread but the Goldman and Buffet groups don't expect this to be a long bear. They think post-election, regardless of who wins., we'll be back in a bull.

[TheDarman]

I mentioned it earlier in the thread but the Goldman and Buffet groups don't expect this to be a long bear. They think post-election, regardless of who wins., we'll be back in a bull.

It still doesn’t look good for Trump, who staked his claim of economic success on the stock market alone (because job growth and wage growth were growing faster on the last two Obama years than after he became president), to be entering into this election cycle with a bad stock market. And if the panic spreads, we are looking at worse economic indicators than that. It wasn’t the stock market crash of 1929 that caused the Great Depression, after all. It is the proceeding panic that that caused. This is why Trump has been so bad in his response to this—he’s been trying to protect the market, which is his only economic “achievement” as president.

[TheDarman]

You assume Biden isn't already wounded. Sanders staying I doesn't hurt a man already hurt by his own and the dnc mistakes. Hell last night the media who really played a huge part in unfair Treatment of Sanders and his supporters finally realized. They may have turned off a large base of voters two times on a row.

That’s a misunderstanding of how this stuff looks. By staying in, it perpetuates a narrative about how divided the party is and how they can’t decide between two candidates—despite the fact that party has, by and large, fallen behind Biden. This hurts the eventual nominee because, while the incumbents’ party was united and presented a “clear” picture for America, the other sides’ was less clear and much more muddled.

And I think their evaluation, in this instance, might be warped. There hasn’t been a primary with this level of turnout. And Bernie does better, consistently, with lower turnout states that have higher barriers for entry. That’s not exactly the record that you want.

Especially when the "blue wave" has shown no real results in two years.

And you blame the Democrats? Despite them not having the Senate and McConnell refusing to put forward the bills that have passed the House. That’s a real perception warp.

Democrats are really hurting themselves this time. They need to out up or shut up with their left flank.

That’s not how anything works in a democratic state. People disagree and they ultimately compromise. The “left flank” can’t take whatever they want and get whatever they want. They have to work with one another and the “centrists” to come up with policies that everyone can compromise on.

They already despise us to the point they'd rather have never Trump Republicans than Progressives. Pretty soon your party will e nominating Republicans.

According to you, they already are.

But, no, the party isn’t actively targeting Never Trump Republicans more than progressives. Progressives have had real tangible victories in the party without resistance—look at Tlaib and AOC. Sure, they may face rhetorical blowback, but that’s politics and not particularly dirty politics at that. They changed the rules for the primary and Bernie was the only one who shaped those out of the 2020 contenders. They have done a lot to placate progressives.

Kinda helps when the party despises you and everyone who you call a friend despises you. Also helps when you have Barack Obama in your corner pulling strings. If you think black voters don't see Biden as hopefully Barack 2.0. I dunno what to tell ya.

I wonder why so many people dislike Sanders—and why he has no friends. It almost starts to look more like he is like Ted Cruz than a firebrand for the party if he can’t even make nice with the side of the aisle he falls on.

And I do think that Obama is a big reason why Biden has strength with black voters. I also think that is why Biden will have similar strength in the general. Obama wouldn’t have lost to Trump. I don’t think Biden will either.

The centrists are very powerful. The media runs the narrative and people are easily influenced by personality over Policy. Which is the reason why instead of just using normal cleanliness morons are buying out sanitizer. Humans are pretty shallow and it doesn't take. Much.

Sure. But I don’t think it is a winning strategy to insinuate that people who don’t agree with you politically are ill-informed. For example, I generally think the people here are politically informed. Do you think that we have bought into a collective false narrative and are misinformed? Or do you just think we have some disagreements with you and Sanders?

I don't think Biden stands a chance personally, this is the media's baby. They run the narrative.

We’ll have to agree to disagree. The political science for him right now is favorable—and certainly more than Sanders’ is right now.

[numberthirty]

Aside from Bernie and AOC, who do progressives like? They seem to have completely turned on Warren. So that leaves...who? I also disagree with the assessment that she is uniformly unpopular. One of the biggest assets for Biden that she does have is the ability to communicate pretty darn well.

You are talking about someone that the media completely laid off of during the primary.

While I don't really think Biden is big on sense, anyone with a half a lick of sense would pick another decent communicator(which is not hard).

As for progressives?

Simple. Lori Lightfoot. Everything Harris might bring to the table(and more) with none of the obvious attack ads that would write themselves about Harris.

[BeastieRunner]

Wall Street tumbles, Dow confirms bear market

Except for a brief "panic dip" in late December 2018, the DJI is now at a level last seen in November 2017.

A few more days like today, and the stock market will be back at the point where Trump inherited it from Obama.

It still doesn’t look good for Trump, who staked his claim of economic success on the stock market alone (because job growth and wage growth were growing faster on the last two Obama years than after he became president), to be entering into this election cycle with a bad stock market. And if the panic spreads, we are looking at worse economic indicators than that. It wasn’t the stock market crash of 1929 that caused the Great Depression, after all. It is the proceeding panic that that caused. This is why Trump has been so bad in his response to this—he’s been trying to protect the market, which is his only economic “achievement” as president.

45 didn't even achieve it. It wasn't his policies and it wasn't his congress or even his party that put the Long, Slow Recovery into motion. It was Obama. Thanks Obama!

All the fits and starts and sputters, barring the 1st government shutdown over ObamaCare, happened under Trump, too.

People need to get real on that. The GOP is the party of recessions.

[Mister Mets]

There's a fantastic piece in the London Review of books about life in Wuhan.

Kids are adjusting in interesting ways.

Schools are suspended until further notice. With many workplaces also shut, notoriously absent Chinese fathers have been forced to stay home and entertain their children. Video clips of life under quarantine are trending on TikTok. Children were presumably glad to be off school – until, that is, an app called DingTalk was introduced. Students are meant to sign in and join their class for online lessons; teachers use the app to set homework. Somehow the little brats worked out that if enough users gave the app a one-star review it would get booted off the App Store. Tens of thousands of reviews flooded in, and DingTalk’s rating plummeted overnight from 4.9 to 1.4. The app has had to beg for mercy on social media: ‘I’m only five years old myself, please don’t kill me.’

[numberthirty]

The more ominous sign for Democrats, though, and that they'll need to grapple with is that the youth vote that DID turn out was overwhelmingly for Sanders. If the Democrats want to not just win transitorily for the moment, they're going to *need* to start delivering on the priorities Sanders highlighted right away if they want any chance to hold *on*.

And despite what some people think, they do want to be in power and not just 'the controlled opposition'.

That's only really the half of it though.

It was the youth vote and the Latino vote that went to Sanders.

While I don't really expect The Democratic Party to think as far into the future as you did there, one would hope that they might.

[Mister Mets]

I think it is difficult to imagine it, primarily because of her youth (being below 35 makes it impossible to assume the role as president) and inexperience.

I think they do need to be calculated about leaving a seat for Republicans to fill—either through a special election or temporary appointment. Ideally, you want someone from a “safe blue” state like California. Kamala Harris was a critical endorsement ahead of this last set of primaries too. She’s younger, has a better communique than Biden, and represents what we would imagine the future of the party would demographically look like. She was also an early endorser of Sanders’ plan for Medicare For All and has a lot of progressive policies she has advocated for. It’s an open question as to whether or not folks in Sanders camp see it that way, but it also is a relative olive branch to progressives.

The importance of winning the presidential election probably means that it is worth the potential of losing a seat in a special election or even to a Republican Governor.

If Amy Klobuchar adds two percent in Michigan and Wisconsin, and avoids embarrassing the ticket which can cost more harm elsewhere, that's probably worth a special election in November 2021.

Likewise if Elizabeth Warren unites the party and helps with messaging, it's worth the possibility that if the ticket succeeds, the Republican Governor of Massachusetts gets to temporarily appoint a seatfiller until a special election 145-160 days after the vacancy.

Bernie and AOC just want the 75 % tax rate for billionares, which was what it was in the 50's, right?

That's not the only thing they want.

But it is also worth noting that the 50s tax rate is really misunderstood. Due to loopholes, the effective tax rate was always much lower.

https://slate.com/business/2017/08/t...-the-rich.html

If the DNC is dead set on a black woman they are probably better off with Stacey Abrams than Harris, but I'm guessing they'd prefer someone from a swing state since they aren't going to be contesting the deep south in the general so Abrams isn't much help there.

edit - A quick wiki search revealed that Abrams was actually born in Wisconsin, so if she finds a way to play up that connection she may be in play for the VP nom after all....

I think Stacey Abrams is just too inexperienced. She was the minor leader of a state legislative body.

McCain never considered Marco Rubio in 2008, and at that point, he was the Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives.

One potential name is Val Demings. She's an African-American representative from Florida, who served as one of the Democrats' house impeachment managers. Before she was in Congress, she was the chief of police in Orlando. Her husband is the mayor of Orange County, Florida.

Democratic party is still the enemy.
If you think that, dunno what to tell you.

The only thing you'll get is MAYBE, not another Trump term.
That's a pretty low maybe too.

But as far as actual change? Nada, zip. We would get to keep the courts, that's Maybe it.

But I do think there's gonna be an exodus from the party, not just of Sanders supporters, but of people fed up with voting for Democrats and getting nothing.

I see the start of a true third party in the next decade.

Alot of the usual Establishment types on both sides won't be prepared for it. People are fed up, and voted for safety, and that might bite them in the ass.

Blacks voted for familiarity with Obama's Homey... Thanks Obama.
Suburbanites voted for protection of their way of life. But will stay woke. They'll stay woke, but **** off with everything else, lol.

Where are the numbers for.a new third party if Sanders has difficulties getting to 40% in a primary? Where is the evidence of party organization on a local level, that's necessary to build a far team with the resumes to run for higher office?

[Mister Mets]

Do you guys think Bernie’s support last time had more to do with him or people just being anti-Hillary?

It wasn't just that he was Not Hillary since he did beat out Martin O'Malley, Jim Webb and Lincoln Chaffee.

I think it is hard not to answer “both”. I think the whole “establishment doesn’t care about you; but I do” message worked better against Hillary Clinton because there had been decades of coverage surrounding her as heartless. This isn’t true with Joe Biden, who managed to make gains back with working class voters, who I do think were legitimately taken by Sanders’ ideas, even if it was against a weaker candidate (in their eyes). But the support that Sanders had in 2016 with moderates and “somewhat liberal” folks has entirely dissipated, not from insignificant levels either (40% among self-described moderates in 2016 which has fallen to very low double-digits).

I think we may have learned the wrong lesson from 2016 in assuming that the party was yearning for change from the establishment, but Clinton had more name recognition and a reputation of working with black folks. No, it just turns out that the party’s base, us, the people, were not as taken with Clinton as the presumption was. And that lack of enthusiasm was also carried over to the general election, where not only did Democrats have lukewarm reactions, but so did everyone else. So, it turns out Hillary Clinton, herself, just ended up being a weak candidate. Say what you will about Biden, but his coalition is bigger in both size and diversity. Maybe the results would be different against a generic Republican candidate, but it seems that, for right now, the “revolution” isn’t coming.

Given we seem to have given the green light to those with no experience to run for President, maybe AOC, who will have a lot more legislative experience than many of the people who ran for office this time, picks up the baton in 2024 to be the youngest person to take office should she win. She has been more inclusive than Sanders in her rhetoric as an endorser of Sanders than he was. Maybe she can expand the coalition necessary to secure the nomination and her youth is something that has been shown to appeal to Democratic voters. Not only that, but Democrats might be willing to take more of a “risk” in 2024 with no Trump either way than they were this time.

AOC will excite the base, but she'll probably freak out the moderates, whose power is currently demonstrated by Biden's success.

As much as Warren shot herself in the foot with some really horrible decisions, she suffered worse for fewer mistakes than Biden did. Biden gets to run his mouth and garble up what he's trying to say or supposed to say every day. Same issue with Kamala, who certainly had weaknesses and some questionable decision-making, but took more heat faster when she looked less than perfectly legit.

I remember seeing women voting for Trump in 2016 because they didn't think a woman should be President. I have no doubt that conscious and unconscious biases continue to play out in the rest of the electorate.

While I do like the idea that the Democratic party can be accused of massive institutional sexism, that's likely exxaggerated as a problem for Hillary and Warren. Would a Henry Rodham with a similar resume (let's substitute being a senior adviser to Bill Clinton rather than first lady) or Eric Warren with the same resume and attitude as Elizabeth Warren really done better?

What you said reminds me of this

Moore: Getting rid of Trump and the system at the same time was probably too much to ask

This was a serious conflict during the primary. If Trump represented a serious problem, unity was necessary and the voters would have to compromise. If Trump represented an opportunity to go left, the acknowledgement is that his reelection isn't a serious problem as no changes or sacrifices are necessary to mitigate his chances.

Granted, this doesn't indicate that Sanders would have won under less serious times. People aren't usually in the mood to change the economic system.

The sweet spot for a revolution would be a time when the people believe it doesn't matter who is in charge if the system stays in place.

In '16 in exchange for Sanders' endorsement he got unprecedented power over who goes into the DNC and their platform, as though he was the one who won the nomination rather than Clinton. This didn't buy them loyalty from Sanders, or his associates. That he did this to the first woman nominee is another bad context. I expect some negotiation but what they gave him was far too much for too little.

https://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...on-to-platform

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...m-negotiations

Edit: Clinton got SOS and unlimited access to Obama, for example.

Hillary wasn't offered Secretary of State as part of negotiations. By all accounts, it was a decision made after Obama won the White House, rather than during the campaign. Hillary was interested in leadership positions in the Senate but those weren't available.

[MacrossPlus]

The fact that so many people are pretty much saying they can't organize and push pressure on the government anymore now that Bernie isn't going to get the nomination shows that folks weren't in this for change and were just in it for the cult of personality

[InformationGeek]

Because f**k us working from paycheck to paycheck.

BREAKING: The Senate GOP just blocked an emergency paid sick leave bill intended to deal with the fallout of a global pandemic.

And look, it's one of WBE's favorite assholes that did it.

Senator Lamar Alexander (R) blocks quick passage of paid sick leave bill - causing it to fail:

“The idea of paid sick leave is a good idea but if Washington, D.C. thinks it's a good idea Washington, D.C. should pay for it."

[TheDarman]

Because f**k us working from paycheck to paycheck.

“tHeRe Is No DiFfErEnCe BeTwEeN dEmOcRaTs AnD rEpUbLiCaNs!!”

[TheDarman]

You are talking about someone that the media completely laid off of during the primary.

It was still quite crowded at the time and Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, and Elizabeth Warren are big personalities. Meanwhile, she has a lot of the prerequisite experience we tend to believe is necessary to be president.

As for progressives?

Simple. Lori Lightfoot. Everything Harris might bring to the table(and more) with none of the obvious attack ads that would write themselves about Harris.

The issue is Harris won’t be attacked on the stuff that she got attacked on during the primary in the general. She will be attacked for how left-wing she is. That’s a lot easier to answer: she’s not the president and her policies are actually very popular. Lori Lightfoot is a relative unknown. Sure, she also has popular ideas, but I don’t see how she can’t be hit on lack of experience. And, yes, she has more political experience than Trump did, but Trump has now been in office for four years. It is an attack that might work.

45 didn't even achieve it. It wasn't his policies and it wasn't his congress or even his party that put the Long, Slow Recovery into motion. It was Obama. Thanks Obama!

All the fits and starts and sputters, barring the 1st government shutdown over ObamaCare, happened under Trump, too.

People need to get real on that. The GOP is the party of recessions.

Oh. I agree. All I meant was that Trump has been trying to turn the stock market into his victory. But now that is falling, we’re supposed to believe it isn’t his fault.