Originally Posted by
godisawesome
Yeah, I can see all the issues with Biden, but my knock on Bernie is that I think he’s slightly more likely to lose than Biden. In both cases, I think they’d make a bad candidate for a general election against what was a more conventional Republican candidate from the past; neither is quite as truly electric as they’d need to be in that case. If Biden beats Trump, or if Bernie had the nomination and beat Trump, I feel that would say more about Trump and his horrible nature than anything else - that ultimately his tactics prove too divisive and disruptive towards the very Republican Party he’s taken over, cutting off their necessary extensions and expansions onto important demographics and alienating moderates into his opposition.
Basically, considering he’s a populist style demagogue with no impulse control and the most banal motivations, it’s more a question of whether he can sustain his nuclear fission style outpouring of hate long enough to overcome the decay and degradation his tactics naturally provide as well.
Bernie has some very real electric appeal and power, but I see his greatest appeal as being towards the demographics that are simply limited in their participation percentages (the youth vote) and towards the coastal centers of Democratic power, and there would always be an offset he’d have towards moderates, which would be an exacerbated issue now. Biden doesn’t really have that at all... but is regarded as a “safe choice” by many, because he has a career with proof positive of appealing to blue collar white voters and is firmly linked to the Obama coalition. Basically, his claim to success isn’t really “electability” in a since of him being a good candidate, but instead of being the most “good enough” candidate.
To paraphrase SNL’s Michael Che, Biden is the kind of “boring old white dude” that people compare Trump to and wish to return to as a baseline. And what impact Biden’s more old-man-acting-juvenile antics may have concerning that confronts a toon with the guy spouting the lies about Biden wanting to take away all the guns may depend more about whether or not it’s a bad move against Trump more than a worthy move of a Democrat; I mean, Biden was confronted by bull, called it bull, and expressed himself in a juvenile way... but I don’t know if that depreciates his stock any vs Trump because Trump’s far more juvenile and dependent on bull for his entire campaign. Like, I struggle to see someone looking at that and deciding that means they’d vote for Trump instead, or not vote at all; frankly, the sheer bull Trump spouts daily makes Grump Old Democrats seem completely tolerable by comparison.
So it really isn’t Biden vs Trump. It’s Trump vs the Trump Backlash; how many Democrats, Democrat friendly demographics, and Never Trump moderates really are there in the key swing states? And will they be sufficiently motivated to come out?
That’s part of the reason why the market’s damage in this pandemic could end up annoyingly meaning more than all the other inexcusable stuff he did. The pandemic is bad enough as it is, but if Trump’s myth of being a president great for business fails as well, through something he can’t control, that could end up being the tipping point for voters who *should* be convinced based off more substantial stuff about him, but aren’t paying enough attention to it.