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  1. #1
    The Fastest Post Alive! Buried Alien's Avatar
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    Default EPISODE 9 box office expectations?

    What are your expectations for STAR WARS IX: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER's box office performance? If you believe the fan chatter, it seems Disney is poised to lose billions on this movie as disgruntled fans remain unhappy about the previous film. But will that actually happen, or is it just a limited segment of the fanbase blowing smoke?

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  2. #2
    Extraordinary Member thwhtGuardian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buried Alien View Post
    What are your expectations for STAR WARS IX: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER's box office performance? If you believe the fan chatter, it seems Disney is poised to lose billions on this movie as disgruntled fans remain unhappy about the previous film. But will that actually happen, or is it just a limited segment of the fanbase blowing smoke?

    Buried Alien (The Fastest Post Alive!)
    That's an extremely small minority that'll ultimately have zero impact on the film, it's going to sell tickets like crazy...and that's coming from someone who didn't really care for either sequel, but it's just silly to think that just because they don't appeal to me that they aren't connecting with a lot of people.

  3. #3
    Ultimate Member Gray Lensman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buried Alien View Post
    What are your expectations for STAR WARS IX: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER's box office performance? If you believe the fan chatter, it seems Disney is poised to lose billions on this movie as disgruntled fans remain unhappy about the previous film. But will that actually happen, or is it just a limited segment of the fanbase blowing smoke?

    Buried Alien (The Fastest Post Alive!)
    I'm pretty sure it will make money - it took a perfect storm for Solo to actually do as poorly as it did, and most of that isn't present for Rise of Skywalker.
    Dark does not mean deep.

  4. #4
    Ultimate Member ChrisIII's Avatar
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    Although it's not a movie the reaction to The Mandalorian has restored some fan goodwill in Disney I think.
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  5. #5
    The Superior One Celgress's Avatar
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    One Billion, easy

    Although I'm lukewarm on the movie I don't believe the naysayers (mainly Youtubers) who claim it'll under perform, there is simply to much hype for that.
    "So you've come to the end now alive but dead inside."

  6. #6
    Silver Sentinel BeastieRunner's Avatar
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    Didn't it outsell Endgame's presale on Day One already? And it did it faster?
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  7. #7
    Astonishing Member WillieMorgan's Avatar
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    I hope that it flops badly but, realistically, can't see that even remotely happening. It's just a question of whether it reaches that billion mark. I won't help the film get there but there's no reason why it won't.

    I do wonder how large and influential a group the Youtube Fandom Menace types really are. They are certainly very reactionary. I recently saw Captain Marvel for the first time and it was nothing like the dumpster fire that they insist that it is. I quite enjoyed it actually.

    Quote Originally Posted by BeastieRunner View Post
    Didn't it outsell Endgame's presale on Day One already? And it did it faster?
    Didn't Solo reportedly do gangbusters in pre-sales also, only to ultimately flop? I'm with the Fandom in treating reports in the access media with suspicion. I will side with them on that one.
    Lower The Pissing Winch!

  8. #8
    Silver Sentinel BeastieRunner's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WillieMorgan View Post


    Didn't Solo reportedly do gangbusters in pre-sales also, only to ultimately flop? I'm with the Fandom in treating reports in the access media with suspicion. I will side with them on that one.
    Solo doubled Black Panthers pre-sales and attributed to 85% of Solo's sales. Not a record per se but they expected better. Panther was not a record-setter with it's pre-sale.

    Panther ended up having strong word-of-mouth and grew a fan base. Solo did not.

    RoS has nearly doubled TFA's pre-sales and is on par with Endgame. Atom's top 5 presales are:

    1. Avengers: Endgame
    2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
    3. Aquaman
    4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
    5. Avengers: Infinity War

    Fandango's are:


    1. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
    2. Avengers: Endgame
    3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
    4. Avengers: Infinity War
    5. Aquaman

    I don't see it doing under a billion.
    "Always listen to the crazy scientist with a weird van or armful of blueprints and diagrams." -- Vibranium

  9. #9
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    I've seen reports that it's projected to make less in its opening week than the last 2 movies, but that doesn't mean that much. TLJ fell off pretty hard because it just wasn't the sort of movie that lends itself to multiple rewatches so close together, so I expect ROS to stay steady for longer as more people come back for second and third viewings. I expect it to fall in between TFA and TLJ in terms of overall box office, though closer to TLJ.

  10. #10
    Silver Sentinel BeastieRunner's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sunofdarkchild View Post
    I've seen reports that it's projected to make less in its opening week than the last 2 movies, but that doesn't mean that much. TLJ fell off pretty hard because it just wasn't the sort of movie that lends itself to multiple rewatches so close together, so I expect ROS to stay steady for longer as more people come back for second and third viewings. I expect it to fall in between TFA and TLJ in terms of overall box office, though closer to TLJ.
    Which would be on par for Star Wars since the beginning. 4 beat 5, 5 beat 6. 1 beat 2, 2 beat 3. 7 beat 8, next?
    "Always listen to the crazy scientist with a weird van or armful of blueprints and diagrams." -- Vibranium

  11. #11
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    I expect merch sales to collapse more.

  12. #12
    Ultimate Member Gray Lensman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr.B View Post
    I expect merch sales to collapse more.
    Actually, I think there might be a bit of a spike from this film over The Last Jedi. The cool new stuff looks like it might actually do something other than be unceremoniously destroyed, which should make some people actually be interested in owning some of it.
    Dark does not mean deep.

  13. #13
    Astonishing Member Godzilla2099's Avatar
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    This will be the first time in my life where I won't be watching a Star Wars Movie at a theater but the Rise of Skywalker will easily hit 1 billion. There are still many that are excited for this movie and I don't think its going to have any competition.

  14. #14
    Ultimate Member WebLurker's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WillieMorgan View Post
    I hope that it flops badly but, realistically, can't see that even remotely happening. It's just a question of whether it reaches that billion mark. I won't help the film get there but there's no reason why it won't.
    That's a healthy way to handle it.

    Quote Originally Posted by WillieMorgan View Post
    I do wonder how large and influential a group the Youtube Fandom Menace types really are. They are certainly very reactionary. I recently saw Captain Marvel for the first time and it was nothing like the dumpster fire that they insist that it is. I quite enjoyed it actually.
    I don't think the Fandom Menace and their ideologically-compatible counterparts in other fandom have any power at all. Nothing they've said about Star Wars failing has panned out. I think it's just a small group getting a microphone and being more motivated then others to talk about their stuff.

    Quote Originally Posted by WillieMorgan View Post
    Didn't Solo reportedly do gangbusters in pre-sales also, only to ultimately flop? I'm with the Fandom in treating reports in the access media with suspicion. I will side with them on that one.
    Solo had nothing going for it. You can take it to the bank that fan boycotts to get revenge for TLJ had nothing to do with it.
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  15. #15
    Ultimate Member ChrisIII's Avatar
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    With all the new and old Resistance/rebels around including some returning from TFA who skipped TLJ seems like Amanda Lawrence's commander D'acy who was kind of third in command in TLJ is probably not going to be in this one. Could be mistaken though.

    After all in the OT the Rebel command is different in all three films apart from Leia it seems. (The "Hope Dies" arc in Marvel's SW comic sort of explained part of that).

    Speaking of Rebel command, Connix's new look in the film seems to be a homage to her real-life mother's look in ESB and ROTJ with the braids.
    Last edited by ChrisIII; 12-11-2019 at 01:23 PM.
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