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  1. #61
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    It should be in touching distance of a billion next week (given the New Years holiday this week). Although, it will experience a hard drop after the New Years week (when schools resume worldwide), it'll cross a.billion but not by much. (most analysis I seen doesn't take into account that TLJ and TROS opened on different dates in December).

    I hate what Disney has done with the franchise but it's far from failing financially. A film franchise where every single film (except Solo) makes over a billion is still tremendously successful.

    Lucasfilm need to now re-tool and figure out how to bring in the people they've lost with the sequel trilogy. More stand alone projects like the Mandalorian might be the way to go.
    Last edited by Username taken; 12-29-2019 at 01:10 PM.
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  2. #62
    Extraordinary Member Powerboy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Killerbee911 View Post
    But which is worse is having a huge spoiler come out and kill momentum by revealing two of bigger surprises in the movie or having to eat some inventory? Plus at least for everyone involved they can gauge interest and they know how to treat the merch imagine being trapped with ton of stuff after the opening weekend. Both Disney and the stores can cut their losses better, The manufacturer is screwed tho. Disney is built to eat losses like this they loss estimated 3 million in retail on Baby Yoda not being available and based on holiday trends it is probably more because the market can overcompensate for when trendy thing is hard to get ala "tickle me Elmo".

    I don't have answer if it is worth holding back stuff to prevent spoilers and maybe damage the main product value is worth holding it back and missing out on the wave and momentum. It become ordering supply game if Disney(and stores) was conservative then they are fine,neither is trapped with a bunch of product that they can't move, If they overestimate the market and demand,they are both trapped with bunch of things they can't move. Not having enough product when you are on fire with customer also sucks which is it is game. But real question is why would retailer be super bullish on Star Wars stuff after last movie.
    Sadly, I don't even know what the spoilers were as I meticulously avoided the Internet from release day until I saw it a week later.
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  3. #63
    Incredible Member billee0918's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kintor View Post
    Even in your best case scenario TROS making less then Rogue One is a complete disaster for Disney. Showing that the mistakes they made with their trilogy have done serious damage to the brand. That the sharp drops with TLJ and Solo bombing were not an isolated incident. These low numbers are the new normal. Failing to reach a billion is just the final humilation for a franchise that has been mismanaged ever since the aquisition.
    There’s no way this movie won’t make a billion. Also TLJ is the 9th top grossing film of all time domestically, 13th worldwide.
    Last edited by Conn Seanery; 12-29-2019 at 02:54 PM.

  4. #64
    Incredible Member abulafia's Avatar
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    i wish i had numbers on actual tickets sold. anyone got a link?
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  5. #65
    Mighty Member thwhtGuardian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by abulafia View Post
    i wish i had numbers on actual tickets sold. anyone got a link?
    No one really does tickets sold so far as I know but you can get a rough estimate by dividing the box office by the average ticket price, which gives you approximately 36,860,779 tickets sold.

  6. #66
    Mighty Member Kintor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by billee0918 View Post
    There’s no way this movie won’t make a billion. Also TLJ is the 9th top grossing film of all time domestically, 13th worldwide.
    The problem with TLJ is that it had severe drop offs compared to TFA, showing a decline in the brand. Disney's supporters handwaved this away with some nonsense theories about how 'the third Star Wars movie in a trilogy always does better' while ignoring the reality of the situation. Now we have TROS again having a severe drop off compared to TLJ, showing that the brand has continued to decline even further. Despite all the postive spin TROS has failed meet every predicted estimate, these drops make it unlikely TROS will make it to a billion. Regardless of the increasingly desperate articles being put out in the press.

    This news is not something to be proud of, when the real numbers for TROS are going to be less then 70m once this weekends box office total has been counted. A far cry from the 85m you were hoping for yesterday and nowhere near the 95m+ the trades were predicting before the weekend began. That billion dollar box office that will somehow vindicate TROS' weak performance is not going to happen at this rate. Nevermind that even finishing just below Rogue One numbers would still be a definitive rebuke against Disney's trilogy and all the mistakes they made along the way to alienate Star Wars fans.
    Last edited by Kintor; 12-29-2019 at 07:41 PM.

  7. #67
    Extraordinary Member Celgress's Avatar
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    I'll only say this. Typically I'll see a Star Wars movie several times while in the theatre (I watched TFA five times and TLJ three times, each with different groups of friends/family) with ROS I have no desire to do so. The experience was unsatisfying to me. As a completionist, I felt I had to see it once on the big screen, which was why I went.
    Last edited by Celgress; 12-29-2019 at 07:48 PM.
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  8. #68
    Incredible Member abulafia's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thwhtGuardian View Post
    No one really does tickets sold so far as I know but you can get a rough estimate by dividing the box office by the average ticket price, which gives you approximately 36,860,779 tickets sold.
    that sounds weird-
    why is it that way? sounds like studios like to smokecloud. tickets sold are the best indicator. if they pay 1/3 per ticket in brazil, for example, (did you know that brazil means paradise in celtic language btw?) total number still matter in popularity
    I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.

  9. #69
    Extraordinary Member Powerboy's Avatar
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    https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/ne...s-dogs-1265118

    At this point, there is no way it is not going to break a billion dollars. The estimate is within a week but it's at 725 million right now.
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  10. #70
    Extraordinary Member Powerboy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Celgress View Post
    I'll only say this. Typically I'll see a Star Wars movie several times while in the theatre (I watched TFA five times and TLJ three times, each with different groups of friends/family) with ROS I have no desire to do so. The experience was unsatisfying to me. As a completionist, I felt I had to see it once on the big screen, which was why I went.
    My movie watching has declined through the years especially at theaters. In 1977, I saw Star Wars 27 times over 25 nights, twice staying to see it twice. I've seen it several times since..

    I saw "Empire" five times at the theater plus once since then.

    I saw "Return" twice at the theater.

    I saw "Phantom Menace" twice (the second time only because other people wanted to see it again). I've seen it twice since though not at the theater.

    I saw "Attack" once plus once recently on streaming and "Revenge" once plus once recently on streaming.

    I never saw TFA at the theater but once on streaming.

    I saw TLJ once on streaming.

    I saw TROS at the theater. I would have waited for streaming but would have been spoiled crazy if I did. I probably won't see it again at the theater because of age and hating to sit in a theater instead of at home with all its advantages including the pause button. But I will definitely see it again

    It wasn't perfect but it was closer to the original trilogy than anything since "Return of the Jedi".
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  11. #71
    Mighty Member Kintor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Powerboy View Post
    https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/ne...s-dogs-1265118

    At this point, there is no way it is not going to break a billion dollars. The estimate is within a week but it's at 725 million right now.
    That article was already posted and it's still not very good. Hollywood Reporter is talking up the international box office for TROS but the truth is that things are not going well for Star Wars. In many regions, such as Australia and New Zealand, Jumanji is already back at number one while TROS has been relegated to second place or worse. It seems that North America is just about the only region in the world where TROS isn't being completly humiliated. The global collapse of Star Wars as a brand is going to be remembered as one of the worst examples of Disney mismangement ever witnessed.

  12. #72
    Incredible Member abulafia's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thwhtGuardian View Post
    No one really does tickets sold so far as I know but you can get a rough estimate by dividing the box office by the average ticket price, which gives you approximately 36,860,779 tickets sold.
    i still donīt get why we donīt go tickets sold for a movies popularity? keep the money for the rich countries.
    if it still sells in well in poor countries, why canīt we acknowledge that?
    where are the numbers?

    imho tickets sold ->box office crap

    iīd love to be at the next disney stock holder summit. "endgame numbers each year? be cool folks! yaa, it was the last of the star wars... "
    Last edited by abulafia; 12-29-2019 at 08:42 PM.
    I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.

  13. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by Celgress View Post
    I'll only say this. Typically I'll see a Star Wars movie several times while in the theatre (I watched TFA five times and TLJ three times, each with different groups of friends/family) with ROS I have no desire to do so. The experience was unsatisfying to me. As a completionist, I felt I had to see it once on the big screen, which was why I went.
    Honestly that is fine cause everyone has a choice in what they do and do not want to see more then once if they get that far to even see it 1 time at all.

    The Most viewings I have seen of any Movie in the theaters is 4 times and that so far has been once and this year with Avengers: Endgame since I adored that film so much. I would have seen it more but cause to life, family and work it is hard to find more time for such a long movie or any repeat viewing in theaters at all.

    The Force Awakens I saw only 1 time and never gave myself time to see Last Jedi in theaters cause I procrastinated for to long on it LOL, but finally saw it on Netflix and enjoyed it more then I thought.

    I just saw The Rise of Skywalker today with a 90% nearly full big theater and both me and a family I talked to a bit after the movie, we All Really Enjoyed Skywalker!

    I honestly for the 1st time in my life in awhile I am planing to a Star Wars movie more the once in than theaters and if I want or can find time see it more, I truly enjoyed RoS!
    Last edited by CJStriker; 12-29-2019 at 09:25 PM.
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  14. #74
    Extraordinary Member WebLurker's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kintor View Post
    The problem with TLJ is that it had severe drop offs compared to TFA, showing a decline in the brand. Disney's supporters handwaved this away with some nonsense theories about how 'the third Star Wars movie in a trilogy always does better' while ignoring the reality of the situation.
    TFA was a box office juggernaut that over-performed and TLJ was the most profitable movie of 2017. That's the reality that we're dealing with.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kintor View Post
    Now we have TROS again having a severe drop off compared to TLJ, showing that the brand has continued to decline even further. Despite all the postive spin TROS has failed meet every predicted estimate, these drops make it unlikely TROS will make it to a billion. Regardless of the increasingly desperate articles being put out in the press.
    At the end of the day, the bottom line is all that matters, and we won't know that until the end of its theatrical run.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kintor View Post
    This news is not something to be proud of, when the real numbers for TROS are going to be less then 70m once this weekends box office total has been counted. A far cry from the 85m you were hoping for yesterday and nowhere near the 95m+ the trades were predicting before the weekend began. That billion dollar box office that will somehow vindicate TROS' weak performance is not going to happen at this rate. Nevermind that even finishing just below Rogue One numbers would still be a definitive rebuke against Disney's trilogy and all the mistakes they made along the way to alienate Star Wars fans.
    The fans, not Disney, are the ones alienating each other, and they've been doing that long before Disney got involved.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kintor View Post
    The global collapse of Star Wars as a brand is going to be remembered as one of the worst examples of Disney mismangement ever witnessed.
    Worse case scenario, Disney has two failures on their hands (Solo and Rise of Skywalker. Out of five movies, that's a 20% failure rate (or a 40% success rate), and that's not even factoring in their success in other projects, like Disney+.

    Sorry, as much as you may hate their projects, Disney has managed Star Wars incredibly well. Maybe it's okay to not like everything in a series and just leave it at that without trying to prove that the series in question is bad because we didn't like such and such about it.
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  15. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by abulafia View Post
    that sounds weird-
    why is it that way? sounds like studios like to smokecloud. tickets sold are the best indicator. if they pay 1/3 per ticket in brazil, for example, (did you know that brazil means paradise in celtic language btw?) total number still matter in popularity
    Probably because studios and distributors ultimately measure their profitability in revenue and not tickets sold.

    I mean, a movie costs $120 million, you're going to calculate how much it actually made in revenue and not the tickets.
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