Birds of Prey Reactions

[Comic-Reader Lad]

If BoP-HQ does become profitable, I don't see it becoming so super-profitable that a sequel is guaranteed.

This will end up being an on-the-bubble situation at best.

If it does get a sequel, it'll be PG-13 for sure. They might do the opposite of Deadpool, and release a PG-13 cut for theaters and an unrated cut for home video/streaming.

This is probably what they should have done in the first place.

Oh, and "Harley Quinn" will be at the top of the title. No more burying the lede.

Furthermore, Birds of Prey by themselves without Harley won't get anywhere near a sequel. It seems they might have been trying to spin two franchises out of this, but no way that'll actually happen.

[Caivu]

How did you come up with $250-300 million to break even?

Because that's what the Wikipedia article says.

[anyajenkins]

To be fair, where did the other poster get those exact numbers for the budget and marketing and tax breaks? Studios don’t usually release exact numbers like that, they have to be an estimate from some site.

[ComicJunkie21]

To be fair, where did the other poster get those exact numbers for the budget and marketing and tax breaks? Studios don’t usually release exact numbers like that, they have to be an estimate from some site.

It looks like the figures came from variety
https://variety.com/2020/film/box-of...ts-1203498018/

The reasoning they provided was because of the "extravagant sets and CGI". However for those who watched the film realize that the sets weren't extravagant by any means and the only CGI was the hyena and black canary in one scene. Most other sources have continously stated the total budget (including marketing) was $97 million with about 12-13 million in tax breaks bringing the total between $82-$84 million.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/screenr...dget-cost/amp/

This one states that they need to gross right under $200 million which is more realistic and online with how the box office works.

[Steel Inquisitor]

Furthermore, Birds of Prey by themselves without Harley won't get anywhere near a sequel. It seems they might have been trying to spin two franchises out of this, but no way that'll actually happen.

Sidekicks getting their own spin-offs have been around forever. If the movie hits the right number they'll get a chance, at the very least they'll get a Birds of Prey movie without Harley.

[trooper_thorn]

Because that's what the Wikipedia article says.

Partly that (what can I say it saves time), but it's also just some basic math using standard assumptions and occasionally rounding up or down for simplicity.

Understand that studios typically don't release exact numbers when it comes to this stuff, especially when there are reshoots (and renamings in this case), so it's almost never going to be an exact amount and if your guess is within $50M of the ultimate number it's considered pretty accurate.


Anyhow, the production budget range has been listed anywhere from $80M to $100M, there were reshoots so it's probably closer to the high end. Now you can't just look at production but you also need to add in marketing and generally people will assume that the marketing budget is roughly equivalent to production so you can get a decent estimate by doubling it. In this case that creates a range of $160M to $200M as the final budget. It should be noted that studios are known to skimp on marketing if they think a film will bomb and a decent number of commenters here seem pretty convinced that advertisements were few and far between.

Following the determination of what the budget range likely is you need to understand that studios don't keep 100% of the box office, instead they get a percentage that varies by market. Domestically (i.e. the US and Canada) studios will typically get around 60-70% of the first two weeks and then it begins to drop from there; this is why the opening weekend is so important here, because it's when they make the bulk of their money. Overseas the exact percentage they keep will vary by country with a generally accepted range of about 30-40%.

People will often assume a worldwide take of approximately 50% of the box office however with China not in the mix it'd probably be a bit higher so we'll say 55% for this guess. At this rate a $300M worldwide take would earn the studio $165M which is enough to cover the low end of the cost estimate. Throw in some tax breaks and merchandise sales and maybe you can break even at a lower amount.


All of that said the exact number needed is only known to the studio and can be warped by the domestic/international split and if they pulled back on marketing.

[trooper_thorn]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/screenr...dget-cost/amp/

This one states that they need to gross right under $200 million which is more realistic and online with how the box office works.

That one assumes that they keep 100% of the box office take which doesn't happen.

[anyajenkins]

It looks like the figures came from variety
https://variety.com/2020/film/box-of...ts-1203498018/

The reasoning they provided was because of the "extravagant sets and CGI". However for those who watched the film realize that the sets weren't extravagant by any means and the only CGI was the hyena and black canary in one scene. Most other sources have continously stated the total budget (including marketing) was $97 million with about 12-13 million in tax breaks bringing the total between $82-$84 million.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/screenr...dget-cost/amp/

This one states that they need to gross right under $200 million which is more realistic and online with how the box office works.

That’s basically my point. Variety says it needs 250, screen rant says it needs 200, we don’t really know the exact budget so we don’t really know what it needs to be profitable. We can get a general idea, but anything else is a guess. Maybe it didn’t use much cgi, maybe it did (cgi can be subtle) again it’s a guess.

[ComicJunkie21]

I feel bad for the BoP cast as this film is being dragged and made to seem like a flop when it isn't. Shazam and JW3 both had higher production and marketing budgets and had a global take of a little over $300 million during their run and both were never treated the same way the media is treating BoP and in fact they were considered successful. BoP has been out for 7 days with a 6 day total of $154 million with an additional projected take of $20 million domestic, not including international. That's only a 38% change where most films see a drop over 45% or more. The reaction to it not making the projection has been overwhelming negative and exaggerated.

How come BoP (a female led film) that had a smaller budget is said by the media to require a higher overall gross to break even though similar male led films that cost more needed to gross less? It's odd.

Shazam was said to only require around $235-250 to break even:

https://screenrant.com/shazam-movie-budget-cost/

[ComicJunkie21]

That one assumes that they keep 100% of the box office take which doesn't happen.

No it uses the 2x method. It states that a film needs to make at least double its budget to turn break even

[Midvillian1322]

I feel bad for the BoP cast as this film is being dragged and made to seem like a flop when it isn't. Shazam and JW3 both had higher production and marketing budgets and had a global take of a little over $300 million during their run and both were never treated the same way the media is treating BoP and in fact they were considered successful. BoP has been out for 7 days with a 6 day total of $154 million with an additional projected take of $20 million domestic, not including international. That's only a 38% change where most films see a drop over 45% or more. The reaction to it not making the projection has been overwhelming negative and exaggerated.

How come BoP (a female led film) that had a smaller budget is said by the media to require a higher overall gross to break even though similar male led films that cost more needed to gross less? It's odd.

Shazam was said to only require around $235-250 to break even:

https://screenrant.com/shazam-movie-budget-cost/

Shazam and JW3 exceeded expectations. BOP did the opposite, theres no grand conspiracy. If you think expectations are too high, well the movie seriously underperformed to Studio projections. So that's not the media's fault. All the talk of being a flop is weird, since I guarentee this movie turns a profit..... but not a good one. Also BOP is looked at by alot as a sequel to a movie that made over 700m. And I think people think Harley Quinn has more mass appeal then she does.

[ComicJunkie21]

Shazam and JW3 exceeded expectations. BOP did the opposite, theres no grand conspiracy. If you think expectations are too high, well the movie seriously underperformed to Studio projections. So that's not the media's fault. All the talk of being a flop is weird, since I guarentee this movie turns a profit..... but not a good one. Also BOP is looked at by alot as a sequel to a movie that made over 700m. And I think people think Harley Quinn has more mass appeal then she does.

Not saying that there's a conspiracy and I understand that it did not meet expectations however I am pointing out that it's being crucified by the media for having similar success as male led films. We're both saying the same thing about the underperformance during the first week but im pointing out that the way the film is now being framed is not the same as similar films that have male leads. It rubs me the wrong way that this is the first big female ensemble film and most of the media outlets are trying their hardest to degrade the film and spin the narrative that it's not successful even if it fell below projections. Hell it's already grossed over half of JW3 entire run in 6 days.

[GozertheGozarian]

It looks like the figures came from variety
https://variety.com/2020/film/box-of...ts-1203498018/

The reasoning they provided was because of the "extravagant sets and CGI". However for those who watched the film realize that the sets weren't extravagant by any means and the only CGI was the hyena and black canary in one scene. Most other sources have continously stated the total budget (including marketing) was $97 million with about 12-13 million in tax breaks bringing the total between $82-$84 million.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/screenr...dget-cost/amp/

This one states that they need to gross right under $200 million which is more realistic and online with how the box office works.

Assuming the movie makes 200m, given how unreliable China is right now. And by unstable I mean virtually every theater is closed. https://variety.com/2020/film/asia/c...ak-1203478152/

[Wildling]

I feel bad for the BoP cast as this film is being dragged and made to seem like a flop when it isn't. Shazam and JW3 both had higher production and marketing budgets and had a global take of a little over $300 million during their run and both were never treated the same way the media is treating BoP and in fact they were considered successful. BoP has been out for 7 days with a 6 day total of $154 million with an additional projected take of $20 million domestic, not including international. That's only a 38% change where most films see a drop over 45% or more. The reaction to it not making the projection has been overwhelming negative and exaggerated.

How come BoP (a female led film) that had a smaller budget is said by the media to require a higher overall gross to break even though similar male led films that cost more needed to gross less? It's odd.

Shazam was said to only require around $235-250 to break even:

https://screenrant.com/shazam-movie-budget-cost/

We're not 2 weeks out of release but I'd ignore voices crucifying comic book adaptations like this one for having the gall to possibly be profitable without breaking blockbuster box office records every passing day/weekend (ignoring how long it took for comic movies to get there, and how long that can possibly still happen). That was there with Shazam, which was also probably a lower priority project for the studio, and I can only imagine how worse it's been with the BLACK Black Canary girl gang squad.

But since BOP isn't remotely as hated as the R-rated Hellboy reboot people already forgot about and every rating restricted penny here is clearly going to Harley's story, this movie should be fine for birthing pains move her away from Ayers Suicide Squad into a couple more movies at least.

[ComicJunkie21]

Assuming the movie makes 200m, given how unreliable China is right now.

There's no china release. Its rated R and actually I don't think WB cares about releasing certain films in china because of the low percentage take. They didn't care about TDK, joker, or Wonder Woman. I could be wrong though. Although imo opinion releasing in china isn't worth it especially if it's a film with a low or modest budget because of the low 25% take as well as the costs associated with editing a second film cut because of China's strict censorship rules.

Once you understand how box office revenue takes work, it comes off as if studios only use China as a marketing gimmick to inflate their numbers so consumers in other countries think the movies are worth seeing so they can make more money. That's my personal opinion about it though.