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Thread: The Box Office

  1. #676
    Mighty Member luprki's Avatar
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    Disagreeing doesn’t make it ridiculous. What ridiculous is how box office numbers are counted. Reporting gross don’t tell us anything, it don’t tell us how much a movie actually makes, the number 3 movie can actually make more than the number 1 movie. Each movie has different finances. The box office numbers don’t distinguish between IMAX, different countries tax laws, different state tax laws, the time of day when the movie is mostly seen, and different financial deals with the cast and crew.
    A better way to measure box office is attendance, this is what will tell us more about a movie success. It actually silly to compare year vs other year of box office gross.
    The movie industry is the only one that counts gross instead of attendance. If attendance was counted some movies may actually flip flop on the list.
    Last edited by luprki; 06-11-2021 at 11:57 AM.

  2. #677
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    Quote Originally Posted by luprki View Post
    But you just proved me right. These numbers is closer to $500m the they are to $250m with only 6 territories, if you would have added the 7th territory the numbers will be at or around $500m
    I don't have to link your own posts more than once but your own words were AT LEAST 500 million (I wouldn't want to ask what your AT MOST figure would have been at the time when you posted that, and you wouldn't want to either you'll soon see why), in reply to a poster noting how expectations should be kept in check currently for a so far few countries release in the middle of a pandemic even if one was China.

    And now you decided to double down not checking any links I looked for and posted, even after you previously ordered chicago_bastard to go look for numbers even when the burden of proof was on you who made the entire initial claim, and even when the numbers either don't actually exist or only exist with a squint over half a decade ago.

    To elaborate, you just validated in your reply here the international markets I posted and noted we should just add another one. Fine, problem for your entire argument then is, to talk first about Fast 7's 441 million at the time to the 500 million bare minimum you initially claimed, that's not exactly a pittance money margin of error for your claim even pre-pandemic. You could fund a few Blumhouse hits with that kind of money. Jumanji Welcome to the Jungle was closer to a billion dollars worldwide with a much lower figure and still considered a huge hit without anyone talking about that being a "near" billion blockbuster (and the same applied to its sequel). Anyway the only market to fit your narrative (as long as you weren't foolish to bet on putting a blindfold on yourself and picking at random) would have been the UK, biggest international non-China market at the time. And even then that would have brought F7 to $1,540,996 million above 500 million. John Wick's suit will probably cost more in movie 4.

    And Fast 7 was 6 years ago in magical times when Trump wasn't even president yet. Your claims get even worse moving forward because your quote chain states PREVIOUS F&F MOVIES which brings Fate of the Furious next, also more timely not only because it also grossed more than a billion but also because it's the immediate predecessor to Fast 9 discussed in this thread. Even if you cherry pick the UK's numbers (top international market for Fate at the time) it would only bring the total to $434,940,975 million worldwide. If you feel that's still "around" 500 million regardless of your initial post, I'd only hope you never have to stake your knees mobility over something like that.
    Last edited by Wildling; 06-11-2021 at 10:32 PM.

  3. #678
    Astonishing Member Gaastra's Avatar
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    Box office update--Quiet place 2 has passed $100m.

    A movie taking $100 million at the domestic box office would have been seen as an out and out failure a couple of years ago, but with A Quiet Place 2 becoming the first movie to pass this modest milestone since theaters closed their doors back in March 2020, it is a sure sign that the cinema bounce-back has begun. While some recent big hitters like Godzilla vs Kong and Mortal Kombat proved that movie fans are starting to come back to see films on the big screen again, the backlog of releases on the way are likely to now reap the benefits of being delayed so long, leaving excited fans desperate to get some kind of normality back in their lives.
    One factor in A Quiet Place 2's favor was the choice by Paramount to put the movie out exclusively in theaters for a defined time before making it available via their Paramount + platform in July. With the likes of Cruella simultaneously available in theaters and on Disney Premiere Access, and Warner Bros. releasing their offerings on HBO Max, the hybrid release plan may be working but also may not actually be needed for very much longer. If a horror sequel can hit $100 million, then it's likely some other recent releases could have done the same if solely available in cinemas.
    https://movieweb.com/a-quiet-place-2...e-100-million/


    Anime hello world does well in china. (man anime is killing it at the world wide box office these last two years!)

    https://illinoisnewstoday.com/japane...-china/246078/

  4. #679
    Mighty Member luprki's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wildling View Post
    I don't have to link your own posts more than once but your own words were AT LEAST 500 million (I wouldn't want to ask what your AT MOST figure would have been at the time when you posted that, and you wouldn't want to either you'll soon see why), in reply to a poster noting how expectations should be kept in check currently for a so far few countries release in the middle of a pandemic even if one was China.

    And now you decided to double down not checking any links I looked for and posted, even after you previously ordered chicago_bastard to go look for numbers even when the burden of proof was on you who made the entire initial claim, and even when the numbers either don't actually exist or only exist with a squint over half a decade ago.

    To elaborate, you just validated in your reply here the international markets I posted and noted we should just add another one. Fine, problem for your entire argument then is, to talk first about Fast 7's 441 million at the time to the 500 million bare minimum you initially claimed, that's not exactly a pittance money margin of error for your claim even pre-pandemic. You could fund a few Blumhouse hits with that kind of money. Jumanji Welcome to the Jungle was closer to a billion dollars worldwide with a much lower figure and still considered a huge hit without anyone talking about that being a "near" billion blockbuster (and the same applied to its sequel). Anyway the only market to fit your narrative (as long as you weren't foolish to bet on putting a blindfold on yourself and picking at random) would have been the UK, biggest international non-China market at the time. And even then that would have brought F7 to $1,540,996 million above 500 million. John Wick's suit will probably cost more in movie 4.

    And Fast 7 was 6 years ago in magical times when Trump wasn't even president yet. Your claims get even worse moving forward because your quote chain states PREVIOUS F&F MOVIES which brings Fate of the Furious next, also more timely not only because it also grossed more than a billion but also because it's the immediate predecessor to Fast 9 discussed in this thread. Even if you cherry pick the UK's numbers (top international market for Fate at the time) it would only bring the total to $434,940,975 million worldwide. If you feel that's still "around" 500 million regardless of your initial post, I'd only hope you never have to stake your knees mobility over something like that.
    $434 m may not be $500m, but it’s sure is closer to $500m than $250m. I was very close. But the point is $250m is low and nowhere close to what it should be. This is fact and nothing is going to change it.

  5. #680
    Astonishing Member Gaastra's Avatar
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    Update--In the heights did lower then expected. And yes hbo max is getting a big blame for it. (to me it's not as much hbo max as it's a musical. Those got mixed box office even pre 2019. For every la la land there was a cats.) Peter rabbit 2 slow start also. Not as big as the uk. It's about were both the first trolls and emoji movie started. Trolls went on to be a hit but emoji on the other hand-- So how is it going to go? Time will tell. It made it's budget back aready so even if it didn't start as big as uk it's still made it's money back.

    While it appeared that the summer box office was dusting itself off from the pandemic over the last two weeks, both newcomers Warner Bros.’ highly anticipated Jon M. Chu directed Lin-Manuel Miranda musical In the Heights and Sony’s Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway are currently filing less than spectacular results respectively with a No. 1 rank of $5M Friday, $13M 3-day and No. 4 place of $4M Friday, and $10.2M 30-day.

    Note--

    Paramount’s A Quiet Place Part II, as we told you, crossed $100M yesterday after a third Friday of $3.75M, -40%, on its way to a $12.5M 3-day (-35%) weekend in second at 3,515 (-229) theaters. Don’t be surprised if the sequel reclaims the No. 1 spot this weekend, beating In the Heights, with a running total of $109.8M.
    If there’s anything positive to say about the marketplace, the top four films are each grossing over $10M at the weekend box office which should in all total an estimated $60M, off 11% from last weekend. New Line’s second weekend of Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It did $3.6M yesterday (-63%), on its way to an $11.3M (-53%) weekend in third place at 3,237 (+135) for a $45M running total by tomorrow.
    Looks like people are catching heights on hbo and just going to see quiet place and conjuring again!

    And--

    Now, why all of this? Several reasons, but chiefly, distribution analysts are having a hard time reading tracking and projections in a marketplace where 5,88K theaters are 75% open and capacity restrictions (average 50%) are still in effect. Oh, let’s not forget the whole simultaneous theatrical-HBO Max day-and-date of it all for In the Heights. No one knows precisely how much the streaming service is siphoning away from movie ticket sales.


    On peter rabbit 2--


    Sony always saw Peter Rabbit 2 in the $8M-$10M opening range at 3,346 theaters, but rivals believed, like they did with In the Heights, that it could get higher. Peter Rabbit 2’s Thursday night preview of $900K also provided hope that the sequel could best expectations.
    Other films--

    Disney’s third weekend of Cruella at 3,307 theaters (-615) took in a Friday of $2.1M (-35%) on its way to a projected $6.8M in 5th place, -38%, for a running total of $56.1M.

    Universal’s second weekend of Spirit Untamed at 3,394 (+183) theaters made $830K on Friday (-66%) on its way to $2.9M sixth place (-52%) for a ten-day of $11.3M.
    Making a notable pop in 7th place is The House Next Door: Meet the Blacks 2 from Deon Taylor, distributed by his Hidden Film Group. The comedy sequel did $358K yesterday on its way to a $1.07M opening at 420 theaters for a $2,5K per theater. The pic played in 98 markets and has a 28-day window. Meet the Blacks 2, which stars Mike Epps and Katt Williams, played best in the East and South.
    https://deadline.com/2021/06/in-the-...ce-1234774162/


    So peter rabbit 2 did as expected. Quiet place 2 doing great, spirit 2 not so great and in the heights people watched it at home for free or just not caring about it.
    Last edited by Gaastra; 06-12-2021 at 04:22 PM.

  6. #681
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    Quote Originally Posted by luprki View Post
    $434 m may not be $500m, but it’s sure is closer to $500m than $250m. I was very close. But the point is $250m is low and nowhere close to what it should be. This is fact and nothing is going to change it.
    LOL I actually inadvertently made you a (not all that great) favor there, mistakenly posting the UK's lifetime total instead of the third weekend figure so it's time to revise.

    Even cherrypicking the absolutely best international market to replace Saudi Arabia for the sake of entertaining your original utterly wrong post only gets Fast 7 to $489,555,669 million back in pre-pandemic 2015, which isn't AT LEAST 500 million, and not very close either, that gap can easily be either a full and successful North America debut for small movies, or the lifetime total Hollywood hit movies can get in smaller international markets.

    While Fate of the Furious in pre-pandemic 2017 gets to $431,324,056 cherrypicking with the kind of international Dream Team of China+UK plus the other few. While quite a few other markets would easily mean Fate would be a whooping $100 million away from $500 million.

    So you were still wrong on both counts. And by your own logic Fast 9's current $256 million is around $300 million so it doesn't matter or is a big deal as far as judging the current pandemic theatrical industry since China's industry already rode out the pandemic but gave $170,040,406 million less money to it by weekend 3, compared to the immediate previous installment, due to already reported negative local reception (which doesn't seem as harsh elsewhere). While I already proved that even pre-pandemic the Fast franchise was on a decline generally (just not a death spiral like the last few X-Men movies).
    Last edited by Wildling; 06-12-2021 at 10:45 PM.

  7. #682
    Astonishing Member Gaastra's Avatar
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    And quiet place 2 wins the weekend reclaiming first place again.

    Paramount’s A Quiet Place Part II in its third weekend has beat Warner Bros. highly-publicized Jon M. Chu directed, Lin-Manuel Miranda musical In the Heights for the top spot at the weekend box office, $11.7M to $11.4M, in a defeat no one really saw coming, heading into the weekend. A Quiet Place Part II‘s domestic running B.O. stands at $109M.

    As one rival marketing exec told me this weekend, “Warner Bros. was everywhere with In the Heights. Everywhere I turned, on every network there was an ad.” And that’s not a ding to the Burbank, CA lot; it’s what a filmmaker wants, especially on a diversity project such as In the Heights with a fresh face cast: They want to know that the studio truly has their best intentions.
    How that translates into legs seems cloudy given how the movie is also on HBO Max. Maybe a 5-day launch in August like Crazy Rich Asians would have done the trick for In the Heights? Crazy Rich Asians in its first 3 days of Wed-Friday made $16M, with $5M Wednesday, $3.7M Thursday and $7.2M Friday. That movie didn’t hold previews. Warners listed In the Heights on Fandango as having an opening day of Thursday, with showtimes at 2PM and rolled all that money in the Friday first day.
    Sounds like people just wasn't into a musical and wanted to see the monster film again.

    https://deadline.com/2021/06/in-the-...ce-1234774162/

  8. #683
    Fantastic Member chicago_bastard's Avatar
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    I wouldn't write off In the Heights completely at this point. Musical movies tend to make their money by playing in theaters for months with a steady cume. The Greatest Showman had an even worse opening weekend than In the Heights, but then had a good word of mouth and ran for months to become a big success in the end. La La Land also never hit really high positions in the charts but was steadily bringing money in. Not saying it will certainly happen with In the Heights, but it definitely could go that way.
    Tolstoy will live forever. Some people do. But that's not enough. It's not the length of a life that matters, just the depth of it. The chances we take. The paths we choose. How we go on when our hearts break. Hearts always break and so we bend with our hearts. And we sway. But in the end what matters is that we loved... and lived.

  9. #684

  10. #685
    Fantastic Member chicago_bastard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by luprki View Post
    Why are you posting an article that is two weeks old and that is stating something that everybody who is posting in this thread already knew?
    Tolstoy will live forever. Some people do. But that's not enough. It's not the length of a life that matters, just the depth of it. The chances we take. The paths we choose. How we go on when our hearts break. Hearts always break and so we bend with our hearts. And we sway. But in the end what matters is that we loved... and lived.

  11. #686
    Mighty Member luprki's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by chicago_bastard View Post
    Why are you posting an article that is two weeks old and that is stating something that everybody who is posting in this thread already knew?
    You’re right, my bad. I just came across it today, I thought it was new.

  12. #687
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    So Cruella has made 10 million in China after opening there last Sunday. That's not a great number but it was initially projected to make a pitiful $5 million for the entire run, so it at least supports that it's a good word of mouth movie.

  13. #688
    Mighty Member luprki's Avatar
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    In the Heights was predicted to open at $20 million, but only opened at $11 million, possible reasons are
    1. Not a blockbuster: non blockbuster movies are having a difficult time at the box office.
    2. HBO MAX: people has the choice to go to the theaters or watch at home. Streaming has become more popular than the experts believed.

    The big question is how the box office will look in the Fall when the blockbusters are not being released.
    Last edited by luprki; 06-13-2021 at 03:27 PM.

  14. #689
    Invincible Member numberthirty's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by luprki View Post
    In the Heights was predicted to open at $20 million, but only opened at $11 million, possible reasons are
    1. Not a blockbuster: non blockbuster movies are having a difficult time at the box office.
    2. HBO MAX: people has the choice to go to the theaters or watch at home. Streaming has become more popular than the experts believed.

    The big question is how the box office will look in the Fall when the blockbusters are not being released.
    You left the most obvious one out...

    The film simply was not the watershed event in the community it was aimed at.

    Predictions were too optimistic.

    Wouldn't even be the first time that predictions had been too optimistic.

    Never mind if it's the former reason along with that.

  15. #690
    Astonishing Member Witchfan's Avatar
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    I saw Into the Heights on HBO Max. It was worth watching on that format, but I wouldn't watch it in a theater.

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