Two releases respecting the theatrical window –Universal’s Old and Paramount’s Snake Eyes: G.I. Joe Origins– are opening at the box office to blah results, respectively with $16.5M and $13.35M. But don’t blame the distribution strategy.
However, it’s questionable whether we can blame the delta variant. These two movies, which received lackluster CinemaScores of C+ and B-, are opening roughly right in line with their estimates. If both of these movies were A CinemaScore titles and completely missed their projections, then it would be quite feasible to squarely blame the delta variant.
However, it’s just another lull at the summer pandemic box office, and we’ve seen that before this summer during May and June. Even with LA County seeing an 80% spike in Covid-19 cases this week (vs. last), the market was No. 1 for Universal’s Old with $1.22M, and it was No. 1 for Snake Eyes.
Overall, the mixture of two mediocre studio wide entries, delta concerns, and theatrical window experimentation is pushing the overall weekend box office down -25%, with an estimated $69M, a drop from last weekend’s $91.4M. There is something to be said, though, in the current pandemic marketplace that the avid moviegoer is fearless about returning to the cinema, but the casual moviegoer is still reluctant. A 76% comfort level about moviegoing during the pandemic remains, according a recent NRG poll, and despite jitters last week about the delta variant, the Dow jumped 200 points to close above 35,000 for the first time.
Don’t forget, when it comes to box office, it’s all about product, and last weekend it was clear that there was a segment of the audience who was eager to see the long-awaited sequel to 1996’s Space Jam, spending $31.05M. Space Jam: A New Legacy opened in the face of the delta variant and over-indexed its $20M projection to become the biggest domestic debut for a family movie during the pandemic. This weekend, the sequel is down -69% for around $9.56M, putting it in 4th place. But the fact that the film is available for free in HBO Max households has plenty to do with that.
Disney’s Black Widow, also available in homes on Disney+ Premier, is looking at a third weekend of $11.6M in third place, -55%. Black Widow made $3.5M on Friday, -56% from a week ago.
More proof that audiences didn’t want to go out of their way to see Old and Snake Eyes can be seen in their Comscore/Screen Engine audience exits: the M. Night Shyamalan movie posted an awful 61% positive, 37% recommend, while Snake Eyes drew 69% positive and 46% recommend. Both titles’ respective Rotten Tomatoes scores of 52% Rotten and 42% aren’t exactly advertising ‘must-see’ either. For the record books, Old ranks as Shyamalan’s sixth No. 1 opening as a director.
Some rival marketing suits tell me that the problem with Old was that the ads didn’t have the extra grab factor in regards to why people should go out and see this tropical horror movie about upper middle class vacationers who age hysterically during a day’s journey at the beach.
When you have a director known for his twists, it’s impossible to include that in the trailers. Some blame the sluggishness of Snake Eyes on the fact that Henry Golding isn’t a marquee draw. But we can’t use the same excuse for Old. Shyamalan as filmmaker is the drawing power for his films, and his other titles with fresh face casts, i.e. The Visit ($25.4M) and Split ($40M), opened significantly better.
Also, in regards to Snake Eyes, Paramount and Hasbro haven’t exploited the G.I. Joe properties aggressively like Transformers in the last 12 years. Why, then, should anyone suddenly care about Snake Eyes? If you’re going to reboot the franchise with a $110M spin-off, best to make a movie which wins on all fronts like a Marvel movie, and rises above its fanboy kitschy IP. Make it smarter than it’s supposed to be.
G.I. Joe in the 1980s wasn’t all toy and TV show: the IP had a great long-running storyline in the Marvel comics, with some fantastic cliffhangers, a great read in a Reagan Economics America.
All of that said above, the G.I. Joe demos are rather splintered: Guys who grew up with the toys in their late 40s know who Snake Eyes is, but do kids 18 and below know, and even care? Snakes Eyes is clearly no Sonic, who has lived a multitude of generations in videos games throughout the years.
Heading into the weekend, RelishMix noticed a “mixed positive” response to the film on social media (“a sarcastic cynicism runs thick about connecting the dots from Snake Eyes comic books” says the analytics corp). I’m sure Paramount could have easily sent Snake Eyes to Paramount+. However, it’s part of a cinema franchise, and best not to tarnish that, even if there’s another, more improved G.I. Joe movie down the road.