The Box Office

[Castle]

I will rephrase my post and ignore your condescension of MCU films.

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it is not condescending in saying TDK and NWH are different. TDK was more of grounded dramatic thriller that Nolan took quite seriously. the only thing they have in common is big box office draw.

It's movies LIKE NWH that they expanded the best picture category. Of course it wasn't for NWH, since it wasn't on the drawing board when they did this. It's why Black Panther got the nod, which would not have happened without the expanded best picture.

please can you redirect or link me the evidence of this with NWH expanding the Oscars to 10?. maybe an academy award press release? Iron Man 1 is seen in the MCU lore as one of their best made artsy MCU films and was a sizeable box office hit? so how come that did not expand the Oscars? the VFX of Iron Man 1 is superior to NWH because they are practical effects also, so why did IM not expanded the category?

Additionally how can films like NWH have caused an expansion of a category when Spiderman 1 and 2 did not, although Spiderman 2 won for VFX that still holds up better than NWH? You have to look at things this way than just jumping into conclusion that I am been condensing, when I am been fairly analytical giving past credible examples.

Watching the Oscars for decades, A movie of this sort


Will hardly expand a best picture nomination to 10 even if it made 3 billion dollars at the box office. that will be a big contradiction to Jurassic Park 93 that broke some many FX rules but still could not secure a nomination for best picture by expanding the category , which it should have because Spielberg was on fire back then, releasing Jurassic Park and Schilinder's list in the same year, but not even Jurassic Park could extend the nomination to 10, so technically how can NWH do what Jurassic Park 93 never did. This is the way we have to evaluate things.

I am sure Dune will probably win for FX too, but that is because it was an Artsy SF movie. The voters often don't vote for the actual best FX, but the FX for the movie they liked the best. There is a band wagon effect for the arts and crafts categories most years.

This seems to be contradictory since you said that Dune looks like left over star wars and left over stars wars never win for VFX. Also Artsy SF movie is what the Oscars like to award, this is why Gravity could win like 5 awards in the technical categories.

I don't see it as jumping on bandwagons, Dune's art approach has been very positively overwhelming not to mention Dune Box Office was not that bad and may be more appreciated by the Oscars because Dune has been an underdog at the box office, especially during a pandemic and getting a streaming release.

[Castle]

No Way Home should have at least another 2 weeks of no competition at theaters. On January 14th we will get the Sesame Street film and Scream (5th one). So this should allow Spidey to keep running and Sony has to like this.

If it is another 2 weeks, the legs will slow down, meaning it may not reach 700 million.

However I do not see Sesame Street making that much money

And Scream 5 must be rated r right? Also this is another tired franchise like X-MEN and The Matrix. they have been running since the late 90s.

Will be surprised if those 2 films make even 30 million dollars opening weekend and if their reviews are bad, they will all sink at the box office.

[Kirby101]

please can you redirect or link me the evidence of this with NWH expanding the Oscars to 10?. maybe an academy award press release? Iron Man 1 is seen in the MCU lore as one of their best made artsy MCU films and was a sizeable box office hit? so how come that did not expand the Oscars? the VFX of Iron Man 1 is superior to NWH because they are practical effects also, so why did IM not expanded the category?

Additionally how can films like NWH have caused an expansion of a category when Spiderman 1 and 2 did not, although Spiderman 2 won for VFX that still holds up better than NWH? You have to look at things this way than just jumping into conclusion that I am been condensing, when I am been fairly analytical giving past credible examples.

I am sorry you still don't understand what I am saying. I give up.

This seems to be contradictory since you said that Dune looks like left over star wars and left over stars wars never win for VFX. Also Artsy SF movie is what the Oscars like to award, this is why Gravity could win like 5 awards in the technical categories.

I am well aware that my opinion of Dune is in the minority. That is why I said it will win.

As for movies winning for FX because the voters liked the movie or thought it artsy, rather than judging the special effects themselves. A look at the last 10 years will confirm this. Not all the time, but often.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Academ..._Effects#2010s

[Noodle]

Additionally how can films like NWH have caused an expansion of a category when Spiderman 1 and 2 did not, although Spiderman 2 won for VFX that still holds up better than NWH? You have to look at things this way than just jumping into conclusion that I am been condensing, when I am been fairly analytical giving past credible examples.

This isn't a "credible example." This is your opinion that you're once again trying to push as fact. Spider-Man 1 and 2 holding up better is your (very biased) opinion. We get it. You prefer the original Spider-Man movies.

[Powerboy]

Sigh...I doubt anyone can gaslight Oscars own playbook that is almost approaching a 100 years. My opinions was just talking about the playbook and I think it is a good playbook. Flawed but good because it still has a shred of exposing people to a more artistic side of movies than just fun popcorn entertainment,

Lastly and somewhat ironically gaslighting is from a 1940s Ingrid Berman movie called Gaslight that she won an oscar for best actress, playing a woman at the brink of her sanity. it was a dark psychological drama and nothing like NWH. So the oscars playbook indeed speaks for itself on the movie they fall over for.



It was TDK not NWH that expanded the category to 10. TDK and NWH are at the polar ends of comic films.




If this is still about the Oscars, Dune is going to consume all the technical categories.

And Dune does not look like Star Wars because Dune FX leaned more like hyperbole science fiction, Star Wars has always looked like fantasy.




When the oscar extended their category to 10, they still kept their open secret requirements. Meaning even comic films would have to have some essence of the smaller more indie films.

Funny I was watching the reboot of the Sam Raimi films, Raimi nailed complicated family dynamic well in his first film, it could be in the same writing best as one of those Woody Allen oscar movies like Hannah and her Sisters, NWH has none of that kind of compelling writing. So NWH wont even get adapted screenplay meaning best picture would be off the table. If NWH was more like Avatar things may be different since I am pretty almost certain Avatar was not nominated for writing, despite it clearing 2 billions dollars in 2010 but Avatar had all the right visual film experience.



James Bond No Time to Die made money, a new reboot james bond will make more money. Let also see how The Batman will do as well and the next Tom Cruise Mission Impossible film. I feel these movies will be the real tester for the industry on if they can make money. NWH cannot be compared to this film because the nature of NWH is different. NWH is like star wars 7 in concept and you can only have that once.

if Sony ends up making amazing spiderman movies and spiderman 4 with Tobey Maguire, I will not be surprised if they only gross half of NWH numbers. I see Spiderman 4 clearing a billion but not clearing 600m at the domestic box office.

I had not heard anything about the latter. I can't see them doing another movie with Maguire as the main character at his age and with his back issues (which they parodied in the movie). I suppose I could see another Garfield movie though doubtful as the lead. I would suspect a live action series with Miles Morales or even more animated movies would be more likely.

[Powerboy]

This isn't a "credible example." This is your opinion that you're once again trying to push as fact. Spider-Man 1 and 2 holding up better is your (very biased) opinion. We get it. You prefer the original Spider-Man movies.

While I think Spider-Man 2 not getting a best picture nomination for the Oscars is probably just another piece of evidence that certain genres almost never get nominated regardless of quality while certain genres get auto-nominated, it will depend on whether the Oscars have changed much. NWH probably won't get nominated. But there seems at least some slight indication of the Oscars being a bit concerned about ratings or consensus that they are out of touch and irrelevant to the interests of movie-goers. Going to ten nominees was, so I thought, to have more popular movies get a token nomination if nothing else.

Do I think NWH deserves an Oscar nomination? I don't know. I'm not an expert. Do I want it to get one? Yes. Do I want it to win? Yes. If only to stick it to the elitist mentality that certain genres are almost automatically disqualified.

[Noodle]

While I think Spider-Man 2 not getting a best picture nomination for the Oscars is probably just another piece of evidence that certain genres almost never get nominated regardless of quality while certain genres get auto-nominated, it will depend on whether the Oscars have changed much. NWH probably won't get nominated. But there seems at least some slight indication of the Oscars being a bit concerned about ratings or consensus that they are out of touch and irrelevant to the interests of movie-goers. Going to ten nominees was, so I thought, to have more popular movies get a token nomination if nothing else.

Do I think NWH deserves an Oscar nomination? I don't know. I'm not an expert. Do I want it to get one? Yes. Do I want it to win? Yes. If only to stick it to the elitist mentality that certain genres are almost automatically disqualified.

Spider-Man 2 didn't deserve a best picture nod. Neither does NWH. But, yes, the Oscars expanding the number of nominees is very much a direct response to the complaint that the Academy has a specific type of film they prefer and it's often different from what the general public prefers. It will be a very rare occurrence if those films actually end up winning, as the Academy will still favor what they always have, but at least now the more public-friendly films can plaster a "Academy Award Nominee" logo on their box art to placate the general public and maybe boost the award ratings.

[Powerboy]

Spider-Man 2 didn't deserve a best picture nod. Neither does NWH. But, yes, the Oscars expanding the number of nominees is very much a direct response to the complaint that the Academy has a specific type of film they prefer and it's often different from what the general public prefers. It will be a very rare occurrence if those films actually end up winning, as the Academy will still favor what they always have, but at least now the more public-friendly films can plaster a "Academy Award Nominee" logo on their box art to placate the general public and maybe boost the award ratings.

Very true. I was just reading an article, including a chart of the ratings for the Oscars starting from 1980 to present, in which, by and large, the years in which popular movies that most people had actually seen were nominated showed spikes in the ratings as opposed to years where most or all of the nominees were movies most people had neither seen nor were interested in seeing, those years showing notable drops in the ratings.

Not to be a popularist but that's understandable that a person is more interested in a race where they have a horse in the running.

Although, considering the interests of many of us who are fans of these genres, it seems the awards of the Academy of Science Fiction, Fantasy and Horror are more relevant.

[Castle]

While I think Spider-Man 2 not getting a best picture nomination for the Oscars is probably just another piece of evidence that certain genres almost never get nominated regardless of quality while certain genres get auto-nominated, it will depend on whether the Oscars have changed much. NWH probably won't get nominated. But there seems at least some slight indication of the Oscars being a bit concerned about ratings or consensus that they are out of touch and irrelevant to the interests of movie-goers. Going to ten nominees was, so I thought, to have more popular movies get a token nomination if nothing else.
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Popular movies by box office still needs to have the same artsy quality as the non popular movies. Hence, my reference to Jurassic Park 93. The film making of Jurassic Park was magnificent and so Spielberg and Titanic 97.

Do I think NWH deserves an Oscar nomination? I don't know. I'm not an expert. Do I want it to get one? Yes. Do I want it to win? Yes. If only to stick it to the elitist mentality that certain genres are almost automatically disqualified

So it is not that NWH is not deserving, it is more about if we nominated NWH than why not other 2021 films. Shang Chi, Eternals, Mortal Kombat reboot , Godzilla vs King Kong and Free Guy. They are all popular movies too.

[SUPERECWFAN1]

If it is another 2 weeks, the legs will slow down, meaning it may not reach 700 million.

However I do not see Sesame Street making that much money

And Scream 5 must be rated r right? Also this is another tired franchise like X-MEN and The Matrix. they have been running since the late 90s.

Will be surprised if those 2 films make even 30 million dollars opening weekend and if their reviews are bad, y they will all sink at the box office.

Well as of Monday it has earned $621+ million domestically. Its gonna come close to the $700 million figure. If the week holds out it will be around $640-650 million by Friday. Then whatever the weekend does.

[Castle]

Well as of Monday it has earned $621+ million domestically. Its gonna come close to the $700 million figure. If the week holds out it will be around $640-650 million by Friday. Then whatever the weekend does.

Case settled then. 700m looks like a lock now for NWH.

Wonder if it will surpass Avatar's domestic box office, since James Cameron nearly made a Spiderman movie.

[chicago_bastard]

As for movies winning for FX because the voters liked the movie or thought it artsy, rather than judging the special effects themselves. A look at the last 10 years will confirm this. Not all the time, but often.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Academ..._Effects#2010s

Those movies all have great VFX and were all deserving of the award. If the academy voters liked Blade Runner 2049, First Man, or Ex Machina as much as you imply they would have given these movies nominations in the important categories like Best Picture and Best Director as well, yet these movies only got a few nominations in mostly technical categories.

The only pattern I see here is that the Academy voters tend to rate subtle VFX higher than obvious VFX in big actions blockbusters and that is a legitimate approach.

[Username taken]

Spider-Man 2 didn't deserve a best picture nod. Neither does NWH. But, yes, the Oscars expanding the number of nominees is very much a direct response to the complaint that the Academy has a specific type of film they prefer and it's often different from what the general public prefers. It will be a very rare occurrence if those films actually end up winning, as the Academy will still favor what they always have, but at least now the more public-friendly films can plaster a "Academy Award Nominee" logo on their box art to placate the general public and maybe boost the award ratings.

Yeah, that's exactly what happened.

Although that wasn't always the case with the Academy Awards. Back in the day, large blockbuster movies like Star Wars, Jaws, E.T and Indiana Jones regularly got best picture nominations. They didn't necessarily win but they were nominated. It seems that sometime in the 1990s, Academy award "campaigning" became more pronounced and they shifted their emphasis towards movies that were released towards the end of the year and even the big summer movies that got nominated were year-end blockbusters like Lord of the Rings, Titanic, and Avatar There were exceptions like Forest Gump, Braveheart, and Apollo 13 but as we moved into the new millennium that ceased to be the case (i stand to be corrected but I think the last summer blockbuster to win Best Picture was Gladiator in the year 2000).

It became a lot more pronounced when Harvey Weinstein sold Miramax to Disney and he became a power broker in Hollywood. It even became worse when Weinstein left Miramax and formed the Weinstein Corporation. There was a time that it seemed like he had a hammerlock on the Academy. Seriously, that "guy" got the most mentions in Academy Award acceptance speeches for a while and he was second only to "God" and Steven Spielberg in speech mentions. It just seemed that certain kind of movies produced at a certain time of the year became the focus on the Academy.

Anyhoo, my point is overall that Academy Award voting is very, very, very political. They specifically focus on certain kinds of movies not because they are the best but because of studio campaigns. That's not to say the movies that win don't necessarily merit them (sometimes they don't) but ultimately it's just something the big studios can use as a selling point for their "products". I'm already seeing the campaign for NWH (for consideration in all categories including Best Picture), it's not likely to get nominated but it will likely get several nominations in the technical categories.

[Powerboy]

Yeah, that's exactly what happened.

Although that wasn't always the case with the Academy Awards. Back in the day, large blockbuster movies like Star Wars, Jaws, E.T and Indiana Jones regularly got best picture nominations. They didn't necessarily win but they were nominated. It seems that sometime in the 1990s, Academy award "campaigning" became more pronounced and they shifted their emphasis towards movies that were released towards the end of the year and even the big summer movies that got nominated were year-end blockbusters like Lord of the Rings, Titanic, and Avatar There were exceptions like Forest Gump, Braveheart, and Apollo 13 but as we moved into the new millennium that ceased to be the case (i stand to be corrected but I think the last summer blockbuster to win Best Picture was Gladiator in the year 2000).

It became a lot more pronounced when Harvey Weinstein sold Miramax to Disney and he became a power broker in Hollywood. It even became worse when Weinstein left Miramax and formed the Weinstein Corporation. There was a time that it seemed like he had a hammerlock on the Academy. Seriously, that "guy" got the most mentions in Academy Award acceptance speeches for a while and he was second only to "God" and Steven Spielberg in speech mentions. It just seemed that certain kind of movies produced at a certain time of the year became the focus on the Academy.

Anyhoo, my point is overall that Academy Award voting is very, very, very political. They specifically focus on certain kinds of movies not because they are the best but because of studio campaigns. That's not to say the movies that win don't necessarily merit them (sometimes they don't) but ultimately it's just something the big studios can use as a selling point for their "products". I'm already seeing the campaign for NWH (for consideration in all categories including Best Picture), it's not likely to get nominated but it will likely get several nominations in the technical categories.

I think that, the further back in time we go, the more likely that very popular movies were also Oscar winners and nominees. Some of that was that there were fewer movies and even fewer independents. But the mentality may also have been different.

I believe it was George C. Scott who was the first actor to turn down the Best Actor Oscar. He said that, to the public, it seems a great honor. But, for those inside Hollywood, they know all the wheeling and dealing, all the backstage politics that really make the award meaningless.

[Gaastra]

Awful reviews and bad trailers may have sunk 355.

Sing 2 still doing well. No way home slowing down at last.


https://deadline.com/2022/01/weekend...55-1234906089/

Next week scream 5 (getting incredible reviews) and belle comes out. Then slow spot till batman comes out.