The bowels of the summer box office have been reached, with Sony’s new C CinemaScore horror movie The Invitation leading with $7M at 3,114 theaters. Like the late Andy Rooney, I get a lot of mail from sources. But in this instance, it’s about why it’s important to be gentle when covering the box office: We’re still in the pandemic, we’re not back yet, it’s not good for our business to be nasty, blah blah blah.
However, simply putting random movies in theaters without any great P&A spend doesn’t do the box office, or exhibitors, any favors. This weekend will rank as the lowest-grossing weekend to date of summer, with an estimated $53.7M for all titles (some think it’s as low as $51M). If it makes anyone feel better, it’s not the worst weekend of the year. That belongs to Jan. 28-30, when all titles made $34.9M, per Box Office Mojo.
On some level, I get it: It’s late August. A majority of kids are back in school (Comscore says 32% K-12 were out Friday, with 38% colleges on break), and Sony traditionally has had a horror film during this latter part of the summer. Don’t Breathe was a wonderful hit for them back in late August 2016, opening to $26.4M and ending its run at $89.2M.
But let’s be honest, the more you spend, the more you gross. True, the diagnostics here on this period vampire thriller at a 29% critical rating on Rotten Tomatoes and 53% audience score doesn’t warrant a studio to spend wads of cash to open it. But we’ve seen Sony do better with less: Their August 2018 movie Slender Man, which had a D-, 8% critic score, and 17% audience on RT, opened to $11.3M and had a 2.7 multiple for a $30.6M domestic end game. Also, Sony, we’re being hard here because we know how serious you are about the theatrical window, and, yes, we know, you’ve had the biggest blockbuster of the pandemic in Spider-Man: No Way Home ($804.7M) which had a generous four-month exclusive theatrical window.
However, if studios are going to keep “experimenting” (forget about day-and-date) by underspending on P&A and releasing “small” movies in favor of bigger, it’s not going to do any favors to theatrical or exhibition. We’re already hearing that 20th Century Studios’ post Labor Day horror title Barbarian (which replaced New Line’s Salem’s Lot after it moved to 2023) is already set to crash and burn with a single digit opening. Why didn’t the Predator title Prey go in the post-Labor Day slot? It doesn’t matter that Prey was the No. 1 Hulu movie premiere to date over the Aug. 5-7 weekend. How many subscribers did you have Hulu two weeks before Prey and how many did you have two weeks following? Was that worth blowing $65M on Prey for? I’m curious how much higher Hulu subs are north of 46.2M next quarter…Warner Bros. CEO David Zaslav would defend such staight-to-streaming movies don’t have any kind of subscriber stickiness like series do and are a complete waste of money.
Let’s get away from the pandemic excuse that people don’t want to go back; it’s simply about product. Disney proved that last year by opening a Marvel movie over Labor Day weekend with Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings to holiday record results of $94.6M. Great movies will get people out at any time of year.
If you’re going to push out a theatrical release, let’s put some oomph behind it if we’re serious about the window and the longevity of this part of the business. What’s sad as exhibitors’ Covid bailout money runs out is that they’re desperate for anything, and are powerless when it comes to a major studio dictating that the first big franchise title outside the summer, Halloween Ends, goes theatrical day-and-date. Let’s not be morons, that maneuver will siphon grosses. Enough of this widest audience crap between streaming and theatrical. Peacock is starving for paid subs.