Will COVID-19 end theatrical movies

[luprki]

Nothing is going to change the fact that studios want their movies out of theaters and into streaming as quickly as possible. Nothing is going to change the fact that studios are tired of giving away half of the profit. Nothing is going to change the fact Disney’s reorganization to prioritize streaming over the theater model.
In other words, it’s happening.

[numberthirty]

Nothing is going to change the fact that studios want their movies out of theaters and into streaming as quickly as possible. Nothing is going to change the fact that studios are tired of giving away half of the profit. Nothing is going to change the fact Disney’s reorganization to prioritize streaming over the theater model.
In other words, it’s happening.

Studios are still easily smart enough to know that half of a good theater haul still puts them ahead of a "Just Decent..." streaming haul.

No matter what anyone thinks/believes is "Happening..."

[Wildling]

And talking about theatrical Cruella, it dropped less than 50% in North America on its 2nd weekend despite the whole Disney+ availability in the middle of restricted theaters, and it didn't drop worth a damn in the international markets where it debuted first. The word of mouth is strong with this one. It's sure to say that's why Disney committed to announce a sequel this week. I believe they also don't like the rival studio releases hogging the headlines when Black Widow is still weeks away.

And by the way Nobody the movie nobody knew before Covid, already officially tripled its budget in worldwide theaters alone.

[luprki]

Studios are still easily smart enough to know that half of a good theater haul still puts them ahead of a "Just Decent..." streaming haul


No matter what anyone thinks/believes is "Happening..."

Now where’s your data proving the streaming haul is just decent?
Besides what’s wrong with having a choice?

And talking about theatrical Cruella, it dropped less than 50% in North America on its 2nd weekend despite the whole Disney+ availability in the middle of restricted theaters, and it didn't drop worth a damn in the international markets where it debuted first. The word of mouth is strong with this one. It's sure to say that's why Disney committed to announce a sequel this week. I believe they also don't like the rival studio releases hogging the headlines when Black Widow is still weeks away.

And by the way Nobody the movie nobody knew before Covid, already officially tripled its budget in worldwide theaters alone.

But AQPII dropped a whopping 59%, all but one box office experts I seen predicted it would come in at $22-$23 million, only got $19.5 million.
The first weekend can be a delusional, especially in today’s world.

[chicago_bastard]

What the champions of streaming as the future tend to forget is that streaming could never replace the cultural impact of moviegoing. Most streaming movies are forgotten after a short time span and vanish from collective memory. That's no surprise as one tends to watch them while playing on his smartphone or doing other things. A movie you saw in a theater grabbed your full attention and thus stays in your memory far longer. But that's not all.

Movies like Joker or Parasite would never have reached the same impact if they were released on a streaming service. Only the moviegoing experience can create such a hype around a movie that it becomes topic of conversation for basically everybody through almost all social classes and age groups. Only movies that play in theaters can reach such an event status. The only streaming formats that come close are series because of their traditional descent from TV, but there is no streaming movie that compares to Joker's hype. And that's a low to mid-budget movie, it goes without saying that it's ridiculous to think Avengers: Endgame would have had the same pop-cultural impact if it were released on a streaming service.

Another point one has to consider when praising the brave new streaming world: You have Netflix, Prime Video, Hulu, Disney+, HBO Max, Peacock, Paramount+, AppleTV+. Who believes that a majority of people will subscribe to five or more streaming services and pay for them? This madness will only lead to more piracy. Well, it already has, movie piracy increased by 41% in the US: https://www.muso.com/magazine/film-t...id-19-lockdown

Giving piracy sites your >200 million USD budgeted movie as perfect 4K copy on the day of its release doesn't sound like a great idea to me.

[luprki]

What the champions of streaming as the future tend to forget is that streaming could never replace the cultural impact of moviegoing. Most streaming movies are forgotten after a short time span and vanish from collective memory. That's no surprise as one tends to watch them while playing on his smartphone or doing other things. A movie you saw in a theater grabbed your full attention and thus stays in your memory far longer. But that's not all.

Movies like Joker or Parasite would never have reached the same impact if they were released on a streaming service. Only the moviegoing experience can create such a hype around a movie that it becomes topic of conversation for basically everybody through almost all social classes and age groups. Only movies that play in theaters can reach such an event status. The only streaming formats that come close are series because of their traditional descent from TV, but there is no streaming movie that compares to Joker's hype. And that's a low to mid-budget movie, it goes without saying that it's ridiculous to think Avengers: Endgame would have had the same pop-cultural impact if it were released on a streaming service.

Another point one has to consider when praising the brave new streaming world: You have Netflix, Prime Video, Hulu, Disney+, HBO Max, Peacock, Paramount+, AppleTV+. Who believes that a majority of people will subscribe to five or more streaming services and pay for them? This madness will only lead to more piracy. Well, it already has, movie piracy increased by 41% in the US: https://www.muso.com/magazine/film-t...id-19-lockdown

Giving piracy sites your >200 million USD budgeted movie as perfect 4K copy on the day of its release doesn't sound like a great idea to me.

I generally agree with you on the first two paragraphs, but if it’s a good movie, it will have impact no matter how it watched. Theaters do have one main advantage over streaming. The question is this advantage enough? Apparently for blockbusters it is enough, for other movies it’s not.

As for your third paragraph, there’s already talks about some kind of bundle package. I agree it is madness right now, but we are still in the early days of streaming.

[green_garnish]

Nothing is going to change the fact that studios want their movies out of theaters and into streaming as quickly as possible.

Nothing is going to change the fact that this is simply not true. Studios are spending millions on marketing to get people back in the movie theaters where their films make money.

You're essentially saying that bound books are going to become a thing of the past, because if publishers can charge $15 for a book and make it available on a website, why waste all that money printing books? People can sit at home and buy stuff on their phones and read them there as well. Books and magazines are a dead industry for sure.

But, just like movies and studios and theaters, there's no evidence of that happening. Every sign points to studios being desperate to get their movies back to where they can be publicly viewed - because that's a blockbuster movies become blockbuster movies, and that's how romantic comedies make back 150% of their budget, and that's how thrillers scare the pants off of people and rake in all kinds of money.

Streaming is not likely to be a primary source of revenue until technology gets to the point that it can create virtual theaters in people's living rooms, so that they can pretend to go to movies and still react to the film with their friends as if they were all in the same physical space. And then people have to prove they actually still want even that.

Streaming is like that last Next Big Thing: Virtual Reality Goggles. Going nowhere, and no real hope that it could.

[Wildling]

But AQPII dropped a whopping 59%

...which is completely understandable and not some kind of divine sign the sky is falling on theaters considering 1) that's not even too bad for the horror genre which can be frontloaded during the best of circumstances, 2) we're still in the middle of a pandemic and its opening weekend is not something you can take away from the movie, 3) AQPII had direct demographic competition this weekend from a billion-plus R-rated horror franchise installment, which is not something Part I had to face back in its day and 4) I've also seen the opinion, which makes sense to me, that AQPII's weekdays were so good it could have taken a bite out of its second weekend.

[Username taken]

I would argue that the box office is currently over performing considering we are in the middle of a pandemic. I mean, for movies like A Quiet Place 2 and GvK to make as much as they did despite the restrictions is extremely impressive.

Pandemic restrictions are still in place and Canada is still almost completely shut down.

All quantifiable signs point to people wanting to get back into theaters as soon as possible.

[inisideguy]

What the champions of streaming as the future tend to forget is that streaming could never replace the cultural impact of moviegoing. Most streaming movies are forgotten after a short time span and vanish from collective memory. That's no surprise as one tends to watch them while playing on his smartphone or doing other things. A movie you saw in a theater grabbed your full attention and thus stays in your memory far longer. But that's not all.

Movies like Joker or Parasite would never have reached the same impact if they were released on a streaming service. Only the moviegoing experience can create such a hype around a movie that it becomes topic of conversation for basically everybody through almost all social classes and age groups. Only movies that play in theaters can reach such an event status. The only streaming formats that come close are series because of their traditional descent from TV, but there is no streaming movie that compares to Joker's hype. And that's a low to mid-budget movie, it goes without saying that it's ridiculous to think Avengers: Endgame would have had the same pop-cultural impact if it were released on a streaming service.

Another point one has to consider when praising the brave new streaming world: You have Netflix, Prime Video, Hulu, Disney+, HBO Max, Peacock, Paramount+, AppleTV+. Who believes that a majority of people will subscribe to five or more streaming services and pay for them? This madness will only lead to more piracy. Well, it already has, movie piracy increased by 41% in the US: https://www.muso.com/magazine/film-t...id-19-lockdown

Giving piracy sites your >200 million USD budgeted movie as perfect 4K copy on the day of its release doesn't sound like a great idea to me.

I dont disagree. But one area I kind of do disagree. The more than 5 streaming services thing and people paying. Logically you are right. On the other hand people paid for cable or satellite for years and didn't watch 99 percent of the garbage that was on it. One time when I had satellite a mid level package I looked through all the channels. I had like 10 shopping networks, 15 religious networks, and lord knows what else. Thats when I said this is ridiculous I watch like 6 channels. Im done. But it took me awhile lol. And there are still people paying for this garbage.

[Killerbee911]

What the champions of streaming as the future tend to forget is that streaming could never replace the cultural impact of moviegoing. Most streaming movies are forgotten after a short time span and vanish from collective memory. That's no surprise as one tends to watch them while playing on his smartphone or doing other things. A movie you saw in a theater grabbed your full attention and thus stays in your memory far longer. But that's not all.

Movies like Joker or Parasite would never have reached the same impact if they were released on a streaming service. Only the moviegoing experience can create such a hype around a movie that it becomes topic of conversation for basically everybody through almost all social classes and age groups. Only movies that play in theaters can reach such an event status. The only streaming formats that come close are series because of their traditional descent from TV, but there is no streaming movie that compares to Joker's hype. And that's a low to mid-budget movie, it goes without saying that it's ridiculous to think Avengers: Endgame would have had the same pop-cultural impact if it were released on a streaming service.

Another point one has to consider when praising the brave new streaming world: You have Netflix, Prime Video, Hulu, Disney+, HBO Max, Peacock, Paramount+, AppleTV+. Who believes that a majority of people will subscribe to five or more streaming services and pay for them? This madness will only lead to more piracy. Well, it already has, movie piracy increased by 41% in the US: https://www.muso.com/magazine/film-t...id-19-lockdown

Giving piracy sites your >200 million USD budgeted movie as perfect 4K copy on the day of its release doesn't sound like a great idea to me.

Maybe you were not around when Game of Thrones or Walk Dead was hot. It is a silly argument imo because we have had event shows that huge cultural impact. It is not been the same for most big impact streaming movies because they are RELEASE IN THEATERS FIRST once movies are release on streaming first they will go viral and create those convos. Wonder Woman 1984 had a huge impact among people online and a large number of people talk about it largely because they watch it home if it was a theater release it wouldn't have gotten the same attention, the first one which did better in the theater didn't have the same chatter. Better yet all I have to say is "Birdbox". Theaters are not the only place where things reach event status that is romanticizing theaters' impact Tv and Streaming have done similar things. Wandavision was a social media monster, Invincible pick up online because of social media chatter.

As for Pirating, it exists in the world right now. I can watch F9, the new Conjuring, and Quiet place II right now. Things being Theater base does not lead to less pirating, Pirating is happening as we speak. Pirating does not stop because of quality. Because these are people who will watch FREE decent pirated copy and wait until they can get a FREE good copy. It is Free part that matters over the quality part. And you don't have to wait long for a decent watchable copy.

Anyways the music industry has proven that a large number of people will pay for a product they can easily pirate in an easy format. Pirating hasn't gone away in the music industry but a large cheap-to-access format means a large number of people pick that over pirating. Streaming focused movie world will have a similar effect. Pirating is a problem Period and will remain to be that until you get a primary format and tech for watching that is hard to pirate and who knows Maybe that is VR. If you aren't stopping pirating outright then maximizing the people who do pay by making content easy to access and cheap is maybe the best good strategy.

I dont disagree. But one area I kind of do disagree. The more than 5 streaming services thing and people paying. Logically you are right. On the other hand people paid for cable or satellite for years and didn't watch 99 percent of the garbage that was on it. One time when I had satellite a mid level package I looked through all the channels. I had like 10 shopping networks, 15 religious networks, and lord knows what else. Thats when I said this is ridiculous I watch like 6 channels. Im done. But it took me awhile lol. And there are still people paying for this garbage.

I was the same way cable, I only watch 5 channels out of 100 plus I had. Heck, right now I am trying to decide who cut between Netflix,HBO and Disney. Amazon gets to be kept because of prime shipping. I have Hulu live but that will be cut when the NBA playoffs is over. People like to think they had everything when Cable was a thing but would easily put you over 110 to 120 dollars. The irony is what "killed" Cable is companies didn't want you pay for things individually which what happens now. I much prefer the world where I can cut the channels I don't want but people like to pretend all these 6 or 7 streaming services is big deal but you couldn't basic cable AND HBO, You had to get a higher package to get HBO and you had also get a specific package to get sports or maybe something like MTV or Disney. Cable was a monster

[inisideguy]

Maybe you were not around when Game of Thrones or Walk Dead was hot. It is a silly argument imo because we have had event shows that huge cultural impact. It is not been the same for most big impact streaming movies because they are RELEASE IN THEATERS FIRST once movies are release on streaming first they will go viral and create those convos. Wonder Woman 1984 had a huge impact among people online and a large number of people talk about it largely because they watch it home if it was a theater release it wouldn't have gotten the same attention, the first one which did better in the theater didn't have the same chatter. Better yet all I have to say is "Birdbox". Theaters are not the only place where things reach event status that is romanticizing theaters' impact Tv and Streaming have done similar things. Wandavision was a social media monster, Invincible pick up online because of social media chatter.

As for Pirating, it exists in the world right now. I can watch F9, the new Conjuring, and Quiet place II right now. Things being Theater base does not lead to less pirating, Pirating is happening as we speak. Pirating does not stop because of quality. Because these are people who will watch FREE decent pirated copy and wait until they can get a FREE good copy. It is Free part that matters over the quality part. And you don't have to wait long for a decent watchable copy.

Anyways the music industry has proven that a large number of people will pay for a product they can easily pirate in an easy format. Pirating hasn't gone away in the music industry but a large cheap-to-access format means a large number of people pick that over pirating. Streaming focused movie world will have a similar effect. Pirating is a problem Period and will remain to be that until you get a primary format and tech for watching that is hard to pirate and who knows Maybe that is VR. If you aren't stopping pirating outright then maximizing the people who do pay by making content easy to access and cheap is maybe the best good strategy.



I was the same way cable, I only watch 5 channels out of 100 plus I had. Heck, right now I am trying to decide who cut between Netflix,HBO and Disney. Amazon gets to be kept because of prime shipping. I have Hulu live but that will be cut when the NBA playoffs is over. People like to think they had everything when Cable was a thing but would easily put you over 110 to 120 dollars. The irony is what "killed" Cable is companies didn't want you pay for things individually which what happens now. I much prefer the world where I can cut the channels I don't want but people like to pretend all these 6 or 7 streaming services is big deal but you couldn't basic cable AND HBO, You had to get a higher package to get HBO and you had also get a specific package to get sports or maybe something like MTV or Disney. Cable was a monster

Ya I am not an advocate for having 7 streaming services, but even if you did you would still be paying less and getting way more than having a mid level cable package. And you have way more flexibility like you said. Dealing with cable companies or satellite was a nightmare.

[luprki]

The rumor is a streaming bundle will be “a la carte”. So we won’t be forced to pay for a streaming service we’re not going to watch.

[numberthirty]

Now where’s your data proving the streaming haul is just decent?
Besides what’s wrong with having a choice?

...

The data is all right there in plain sight...

We essentially have an equation. Since we don't know exactly what streaming or the actual total is, we will use "S" and "T".

When we have an equation that is essentialy S+90% of non-pandemic during a pandemic=T?

We absolutely know that the streaming haul is just decent because it is not even taking a decent percentage away from theaters that are not operating unencumbered.

Never mind taking enough that it will force theaters to shut down the way you suggested.

As for what is in green?

These companies are in business to do what makes them the greatest profit. Not to provide a consumer with whatever choice they would like.

[luprki]

The data is all right there in plain sight...

We essentially have an equation. Since we don't know exactly what streaming or the actual total is, we will use "S" and "T".

When we have an equation that is essentialy S+90% of non-pandemic during a pandemic=T?

We absolutely know that the streaming haul is just decent because it is not even taking a decent percentage away from theaters that are not operating unencumbered.

Never mind taking enough that it will force theaters to shut down the way you suggested.

As for what is in green?

These companies are in business to do what makes them the greatest profit. Not to provide a consumer with whatever choice they would like.

In other words, you have no data.
The only data that is out is the Samba TV data, which goes against your theory.