Will COVID-19 end theatrical movies

[Vakanai]

Didn’t you read the article, Samba TV can only capture smart tv. The $20 million is a minimum figure. Million of people watch entertainment online and mobile devices too.

Oh I know it's a minimum number, my question is what makes you so sure the true and unknown number is so much higher, high enough to make theaters worry? You've got to provide a reason. We have a minimum, but we don't know how much higher the maximum is. It might not be all that much.

[luprki]

Oh I know it's a minimum number, my question is what makes you so sure the true and unknown number is so much higher, high enough to make theaters worry? You've got to provide a reason. We have a minimum, but we don't know how much higher the maximum is. It might not be all that much.

It’s easy and common sense.
After doing some research on Samba TV, I found they only measure a few Smart TV’s depending on the manufacture and the user has to enable it. Samba TV doesn’t measure mobile devices, online viewing, Apple TV devices, Roku devices, Amazon Stick and Chrome Stick.
Samba TV is not measuring most devices used for streaming, this surprised me. Because of that I think the real number is now around $40-$50 million. Samba TV measures only a small amount of streaming availability, the only reason the media used it is because it’s the only measuring stick that available now.

[numberthirty]

...


They should worry, this is devastating. And again, this started before the pandemic.

Politely, you are just flat out incorrect.

When it comes to this film, theaters just easily won a boxing match that they were forced to fight with one hand tied behind their back.

To get me to take the idea that it is legitimately anything like "Devastating..."

You are going to need to lay out, in detail, exactly how it is devastating.

[Vakanai]

It’s easy and common sense.
After doing some research on Samba TV, I found they only measure a few Smart TV’s depending on the manufacture and the user has to enable it. Samba TV doesn’t measure mobile devices, online viewing, Apple TV devices, Roku devices, Amazon Stick and Chrome Stick.
Samba TV is not measuring most devices used for streaming, this surprised me. Because of that I think the real number is now around $40-$50 million. Samba TV measures only a small amount of streaming availability, the only reason the media used it is because it’s the only measuring stick that available now.

...I think I found the problem here. When I said that the real maximum might not be that impressive and that studios shouldn't worry, I was assuming it'd be in the $40 million range. I thought you were talking about something in the 60+ estimates. So the difference isn't the numbers, but whether we think that number is representative of a real threat. And considering that the pandemic is ongoing...I don't see it.

[numberthirty]

It’s easy and common sense.
After doing some research on Samba TV, I found they only measure a few Smart TV’s depending on the manufacture and the user has to enable it. Samba TV doesn’t measure mobile devices, online viewing, Apple TV devices, Roku devices, Amazon Stick and Chrome Stick.
Samba TV is not measuring most devices used for streaming, this surprised me. Because of that I think the real number is now around $40-$50 million. Samba TV measures only a small amount of streaming availability, the only reason the media used it is because it’s the only measuring stick that available now.

Which nothing in the way of hard numbers actually points to.

You seriously don't see why folks won't spot streaming another twenty million dollars when it comes to this?

[numberthirty]

Meanwhile, a lot of the discussion about what those numbers actually amounted to seems to be turning a blind eye to what was actually in the piece...

From the article -

Extrapolating the Disney+ Premier cash earned by Cruella in Samba TV households, the Craig Gillespie-directed movie generated an estimated $20.57M, and that’s a sum that Disney doesn’t have to share with theater owners.

"Extrapolate..." as in -

extend the application of (a method or conclusion, especially one based on statistics) to an unknown situation by assuming that existing trends will continue or similar methods will be applicable.

Which means that the figure in the article has already accounted for what folks are attempting to say that it did not.

[luprki]

I really don’t know what to say, lol

[luprki]

I finally stopped lol. I see the pre-theater people was blindsided by this article and are trying to use any excuse to counter it.But there is no logical counter argument, it is what it is.

30% of streaming viewers use a smart tv, but Samba TV can only measure the ones if the user enable the software and with only a few manufacturers. So basically Samba is measuring less than 30% of streaming viewers. That leave over 70% of streaming views not counted. In other words, Disney made a a lot more money with streaming than they did with theaters.

[hyped78]

Both Aladdin and The Lion King in 2019 made over 1 billion USD worldwide - and they were cheaper to produce than Cruella. The numbers that Disney+ is making via streaming purchases, even if super duper extrapolated don’t come anywhere near that, not even up to its reported production cost, and not even if we consider that not all theater money goes to Disney of course.

Disclaimer: I don’t even care about movie theaters, I have been to theaters exactly twice in the last five years. But it’s pretty obvious that the economics of streaming one-off purchases don’t compare with box office numbers, even in terrible years.

[luprki]

Disney likely made more on streaming than theater, because the $20 million only accounts for less than 30% of viewers. Also Disney doesn’t have to share 50% with a middle man. I wished we had a system that measure 100% streaming viewers. Unfortunately, Samba TV is only thing we got at this time.

[hyped78]

Disney likely made more on streaming than theater, because the $20 million only accounts for less than 30% of viewers. Also Disney doesn’t have to share 50% with a middle man. I wished we had a system that measure 100% streaming viewers. Unfortunately, Samba TV is only thing we got at this time.

Let’s say that for Cruella $20 million is 25% and that the total revenue figure is $80 million for 100%. How is that even close to $250 million for Aladdin or the Lion King after removing 50% for the theaters themselves (three times more!)? It is not even close. And those $80 million for Cruella are still less than half the movie’s production cost.

Also bear in mind that the latest numbers from Cruella in theaters show that revenue from theaters for the movie will quickly surpass those streaming revenues.

The streaming companies themselves know it is not sustainable to rely on streaming purchases only, there is a reason why Disney+ postponed Black Widow as much as they could. And there is a reason why these movies become free on Disney+ after just a few months (Cruella will become free to subscribers starting in the last week of August).

[numberthirty]

Disney likely made more on streaming than theater, because the $20 million only accounts for less than 30% of viewers. Also Disney doesn’t have to share 50% with a middle man. I wished we had a system that measure 100% streaming viewers. Unfortunately, Samba TV is only thing we got at this time.

You have to completely ignore the way that the article is worded to wind up thinking that.

The word "Extrapolating..." is pretty clearly right there in the article. Put simply, it means that they worked out a rough number for "One Hundred Percent..." based on the "Thirty Percent..." that they know.

We have no reason to believe anything but that based on how the article is worded.

This video is a decent breakdown on extrapolation...

[luprki]

Let’s say that for Cruella $20 million is 25% and that the total revenue figure is $80 million for 100%. How is that even close to $250 million for Aladdin or the Lion King after removing 50% for the theaters themselves (three times more!)? It is not even close. And those $80 million for Cruella are still less than half the movie’s production cost.

Also bear in mind that the latest numbers from Cruella in theaters show that revenue from theaters for the movie will quickly surpass those streaming revenues.

The streaming companies themselves know it is not sustainable to rely on streaming purchases only, there is a reason why Disney+ postponed Black Widow as much as they could. And there is a reason why these movies become free on Disney+ after just a few months (Cruella will become free to subscribers starting in the last week of August).

I’m comparing Cruella’s streaming vs theaters. I’m not comparing it to Aladdin nor Lion King.
Cruella made approximately made $80 million streaming over the weekend, it’s not going to stop at $80 million, it still streaming and people are still purchasing it, just like the theaters.
If the studios really think streaming purchases wasn’t sustainable they wouldn’t be shortening the theatrical window. The studios want they movies out of theaters faster and quickly into streaming.
Streaming is more convenient and there is no way theaters can surpass it.
Another thing that being ignore is movies like Cruella and BW will provide more subscribers to D+, which will bring in even more money after the movie has run it’s course. So if people want to wait until August to see Cruella, they still has to subscribe to D+ and pay the low monthly subscriptions. There is no negatives to streaming, but they are negatives to theatrical releases.

[green_garnish]

What is your $80 million source of information?

[inisideguy]

I am really confused. If Disney + says 686,000 or whatever households purchased Cruella over the 4 day weekend what does that matter what device i.e. Samba or whatever. Someone please explain. If someone paid 30 bucks for it wouldn't that show up as purchased via Disney + ?