Will COVID-19 end theatrical movies

[luprki]

This is better than people think. King of Monster did $47 million opening weekend. So this is a big number.

Don’t see this as a good number at all. The new normal is $47 million for a 5 day opening weekend, pre-covid this number would be $100 million. This is what I’ve been talking about, movies can’t make profit with only theaters anymore. Theaters can’t make enough money with this performance, this number would be considered an underperformance in 2019. The studio and the entertainment media is trying to put a positive spin on this, but the reality is there is no positive, I’m sorry to say.
I wished it would’ve done better than this, because theaters are only going to be for big blockbuster, like GvK. The small movies that already struggled pre-covid will find it hard to find theater space now. It already happening, Kevin Hart movie “Fatherhood” was do for release this month, but couldn’t find theater space because theaters will lose money if they screen it, now it’s to be released on Netflix in June.

[numberthirty]

Don’t see this as a good number at all. The new normal is $47 million for a 5 day opening weekend, pre-covid this number would be $100 million. This is what I’ve been talking about, movies can’t make profit with only theaters anymore. Theaters can’t make enough money with this performance, this number would be considered an underperformance in 2019. The studio and the entertainment media is trying to put a positive spin on this, but the reality is there is no positive, I’m sorry to say.

I wished it would’ve done better than this, because theaters are only going to be for big blockbuster, like GvK. The small movies that already struggled pre-covid will find it hard to find theater space now. It already happening, Kevin Hart movie “Fatherhood” was do for release this month, but couldn’t find theater space because theaters will lose money if they screen it, now it’s to be released on Netflix in June.

You just said that it made half of what it would have made pre-Covid when things are still right in the middle of Covid.

You are making the case for that things will work out just fine.

[numberthirty]

...

I wished it would’ve done better than this, because theaters are only going to be for big blockbuster, like GvK. The small movies that already struggled pre-covid will find it hard to find theater space now. It already happening, Kevin Hart movie “Fatherhood” was do for release this month, but couldn’t find theater space because theaters will lose money if they screen it, now it’s to be released on Netflix in June.

As for this...

Nobody just did perfectly fine for a smaller film in the middle of a pandemic.

Just not seeing much of anything that points to that the sky is actually falling.

[luprki]

Clarification:
GvK.................. 5 day $47million-new normal
Kong skull inland 3 day $61 million
Godzilla............. 3 day $48 million

I hope I’m wrong about the future of theaters, but I don’t think so. Movie theaters will be a thing of the past in the next 15 to 20 years.

[numberthirty]

Clarification:
GvK.................. 5 day $47million-new normal
Kong skull inland 3 day $61 million
Godzilla............. 3 day $48 million

I hope I’m wrong about the future of theaters, but I don’t think so. Movie theaters will be a thing of the past in the next 15 to 20 years.

Here is the obvious issue with the entire way that you are looking at this...

You're whole "New Normal..."?

It's entirely based on completely garbage math.

To buy into it actually being anything like an actual "New Normal..."? We would have to buy into that things will stay at this "New Normal..." that you are asserting actually exists.

Meanwhile, the actual hard math that we have about the way things are progressing? It had GVK just make a quarter of what last years highest theatrical run was in less than five days. Never mind that you are using "Apples..."/"Oranges..." math to try to make GVK look bad when things actually look rather promising.

So, ultimately?

The "I Don't Think So..." doesn't really have anything like hard numbers backing it up.

Could it happen? Who knows?

That said, none of the current numbers point to that even being likely. Never mind something like this...

https://comicbook.com/movies/news/wa...theaters-2022/

WarnerMedia CEO Confirms WB Movies Returning to Exclusive Theater Debuts in 2022

[luprki]

You’re forgetting monthly subscribers (the gift that keeps on giving). Theaters are a one shot gift, but streaming is a monthly gift.
WB will go back to exclusive theaters, until they realize it not worth it and go back to same day release.

[numberthirty]

You’re forgetting monthly subscribers (the gift that keeps on giving). Theaters are a one shot gift, but streaming is a monthly gift.

WB will go back to exclusive theaters, until they realize it not worth it and go back to same day release.

Repeating that whole "Monthly Subscribers..." bit doesn't change that actual reality is running contrary to what you are trying to say is happening.

If you want to believe that this will eventually come to pass based on nothing that is actually concrete?

No one can really stop someone who wants to do that.

Also doesn't really change that one would be doing it based on almost nothing in the way of actual facts.

[luprki]

Please go back and carefully read, maybe then you will understand what I’m saying.
If not, let’s just agree to disagree.

[PD98]

You’re forgetting monthly subscribers (the gift that keeps on giving). Theaters are a one shot gift, but streaming is a monthly gift.

Unless people see the movie again and their group is large enough that buying tickets for them is more than a monthly subscription in which case the studios would prefer theatres. My household has four people and just by doing the math we know that buying tickets for 3-4 depending on if everyone wants to go or if someone whats to skip is either less or about the same price as premier access. And studios have also done the math: they get more charging by the person (even oi it's a one-time viewing) than having a set amount for a household/account. For example: charging a family of say 6 (you decide which of the 3 categories they all go in) would get them more money they would get from whatever price the streaming service is set at or if they charge extra.

[luprki]

Unless people see the movie again and their group is large enough that buying tickets for them is more than a monthly subscription in which case the studios would prefer theatres. My household has four people and just by doing the math we know that buying tickets for 3-4 depending on if everyone wants to go or if someone whats to skip is either less or about the same price as premier access. And studios have also done the math: they get more charging by the person (even oi it's a one-time viewing) than having a set amount for a household/account. For example: charging a family of say 6 (you decide which of the 3 categories they all go in) would get them more money they would get from whatever price the streaming service is set at or if they charge extra.

Imo, monthly subscriptions are still better, because it will outlast any movie, by far. Plus streaming is not about one movie, it’s about a whole slate of movies.

[numberthirty]

Please go back and carefully read, maybe then you will understand what I’m saying.
If not, let’s just agree to disagree.

I have.

While you don't have much in the way of facts, you suspect that streaming will eventually hurt theaters.

Which is a belief that you are completely entitled to.

Folks are just going to point out that the facts don't really point to anything like that happening at any time in the near future.

[numberthirty]

Imo, monthly subscriptions are still better, because it will outlast any movie, by far. Plus streaming is not about one movie, it’s about a whole slate of movies.

When you are potentially making more on ever instance of "One Movie..."?

PD98 is exactly right about that the folks looking to make a profit of of making films are easily smart enough to be able to do that really basic math.

Your opinion on that subscriptions are somehow "Better..."?

It doesn't really amount to much versus the hard math in an example like PD98 just laid out.

[green_garnish]

You’re forgetting monthly subscribers (the gift that keeps on giving). Theaters are a one shot gift, but streaming is a monthly gift.
WB will go back to exclusive theaters, until they realize it not worth it and go back to same day release.

Streaming requires the same thing theaters require... new content. Except streaming requires more of it more often.

Not gonna work.

[PD98]

Imo, monthly subscriptions are still better, because it will outlast any movie, by far. Plus streaming is not about one movie, it’s about a whole slate of movies.

Won't change the fact that as long as the option to go to theatres to see movies people will go and streaming services won't really affect them in the long term when it comes to people that want to go to the movies. I'm sure when professional sports began to be broadcasted, either radio or television, that people assumed stadiums would close because people no longer had to leave their house to watch the game, and yet opening day for the 2021 season the Texas Rangers had a sold-out stadium and new stadiums are built every couple of years.
What you personally think is better doesn't matter for **** because you don't speak for other people and there are people who would choose to go to theaters over streaming every time, just like there are people that spend hundreds if not thousands of dollars each year to go to their favorite sport teams games either home or away when they could just watch the game from their couch.

[Killerbee911]

That said, none of the current numbers point to that even being likely. Never mind something like this...

https://comicbook.com/movies/news/wa...theaters-2022/

I mean the damage is already done

That won’t be the case in 2022, as Warner Bros. is already striking agreements with theaters to install a 45-day window between theatrical and streaming premieres

and for context

While the theatrical window was originally conceived as being six months, as of 2019, it had been reduced to an average of three months

This not aimed at the person I quoted the problem in talking about this topic is that people want to talk in extremes as if ALL movie theaters are going to disappear or The movie theater is going to be perfectly fine FOREVER are the only options. 45 days for context Titanic stay as number 1 for 15 weeks, Do you think that is possible in a world with 45-day window?

We can talk about what is happening a little smarter than what we are doing in this thread they are a lot of dominos to fall either way can drastically change things either way for example "Paramount Consent Decrees of 1948" isn't in play anymore so at anytime one of the major players or even Netflix can open theater chains. There is a world where AMC, Regal, and Cinemax disappear and is placed by Disney, WB, and Paramount Theaters that would change how we talk about this topic. For me, it is race between do studios take over or does future lack of theatrical window splat the theater industry.