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  1. #661
    Incredible Member Maestro 216's Avatar
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    I mean theaters no longer have power over studios. If they didn't allow Trolls 2 to cone out and force studios to hold their films they could have postponed the inevitable.

  2. #662
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    Most U.S. Consumers Still Uncomfortable Going to a Theater in Next Six Months, Survey Finds

    The movie theater industry’s annus horribilis will continue to drag well into next year, according to new research from consulting firm Deloitte.

    With coronavirus cases continuing to surge in the U.S., Deloitte’s Digital Media trends 14th edition fall pulse survey asked consumers how they felt about attending a movie in a theater. Even if they had the option to do so, 71% of consumers said they would not be comfortable going to a theater within the next month — and just over half said they were unwilling to go see a movie in-person in the next six months, per the study.

    “After the pandemic is over, it is unclear what role movie theaters will play in consumer entertainment or to what extent the existing system of releases will have been disrupted,” Deloitte says in the report. “There’s a role for movie theaters — but maybe not the leading role.”

    With the timeline for a broad reopening of theaters uncertain and consumer hesitancy to visit public venues, WarnerMedia this week announced that the entire 2021 slate Warner Bros. of 17 films will be released simultaneously on HBO Max and in theaters — a move blasted by theater owners. Warner Bros.’ day-and-date shift will result in $1.2 billion lost annual revenue for WarnerMedia, analyst Craig Moffett estimates, meaning HBO Max’s annual average sub gains will need to be 8.4 million higher than the current pace to hit the same revenue — and WarnerMedia will need to get a deal done with Roku to accelerate HBO Max’s uptake.
    Here’s the most alarming data:

    Post-pandemic, whenever that may be, 35% of consumers said they will definitely or “probably” prefer to see new movies in a theater, according to the Deloitte study. But more Americans (44%) said the same about seeing first-run movies at home. During the early phase of COVID-19 stay-at-home
    orders, Deloitte found that 22% of consumers had paid to rent or watch a premium VOD movie — and 90% of those said they would do so again, which represents astounding customer-satisfaction, according to Westcott.
    Wow.
    "I love mankind...it's people I can't stand!!"

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  3. #663
    Extraordinary Member Derek Metaltron's Avatar
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    Just thought that Cheetah’s ‘Get used to it’ speech to Wonder Woman in WW84 is basically streaming services to cinema chains now.

  4. #664
    Extraordinary Member Joker's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Amadeus Arkham View Post
    Here’s the most alarming data:



    Wow.
    Why is this alarming? It's a big d'uh if you ask me.

  5. #665
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joker View Post
    Why is this alarming? It's a big d'uh if you ask me.
    Alarming for myself since even in a post-pandemic time, where things are back to normal, this study tells us people would prefer to see movies at their home rather than in a theater. Of course, it’s a no-brainer that a larger percentage of people wouldn’t want to be in theaters during a pandemic but post pandemic? Going off this study, the preference is leaning towards seeing them at home. Which I guess I can understand on some level seeing as folks probably have gotten used to seeing movies mostly in the comfort of their homes by now and just because a pandemic ends doesn’t guarantee moviegoing returning right away; seeing as so many people are struggling to make ends meet and likely will continue to do so even after the pandemic is over. So spending money to see a movie in a theater probably would be the least of their priorities. Regardless, I remain hopeful we’ll one day live in a world where a movie joins the billion dollar club again. We really can’t have The Rise Of Skywalker be the last billion dollar movie in our lifetimes, can we?
    Last edited by Amadeus Arkham; 12-04-2020 at 06:03 PM.
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  6. #666
    Ultimate Member Kirby101's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Killerbee911 View Post
    Or they could stop making movies that cost 100 million plus. And start making more movies that cost 20 to 50 million. A streaming service needs just one or two killer programming aka Game of Thrones or Mandolorian then all other new stuff is to keep people around while waiting on the killer programming.
    Great pitch for the Studio heads to the Board, "Hey guys from now on we will make a couple of billion less each year, but we will make small, important movies." Yeah, that's the ticket.

    And BTW, you would also be eliminating many Pixar and CGI animated movies. They can be in the $150 to $200 million range.
    Last edited by Kirby101; 12-04-2020 at 05:18 PM.
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  7. #667
    Astonishing Member Killerbee911's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scott Taylor View Post
    Yah blockbuster movies provide the cushion to float lots of those lower budget "risk" movies out there. Joker was made on only $55 million, a pittance these days. Would it have even been made had it not been for some of the blockbuster movies that filler the coffers?

    .
    Yes it would have still be made they(Netflix) made

    Old Guard 70 million
    Project power 85 million
    Extraction 50 million

    Lower Budget doesn't mean cheap it means not spending 150 to 200 million-plus another 100 million advertising for a movie to flop. Netflix has also funded 6 Underground/Triple Frontier/Irishman all in the 115 to 150 dollar range. I don't know where this idea of quality will drop into oblivion. And Netflix isn't Apple, Disney, WB, Amazon who can throw money at things.

    All it means that instead of throwing near 200 to 300 million make and advertise Kong vs Godzilla, They would go try to make Kong vs Godzilla with a 85 to 150 budget. And since we are a streaming service we don't care about advertising in the same as a normal movie. Hollywood is a better place when the answer isn't to throw more special effects at things to make it a spectacle hoping to make more money.


    Quote Originally Posted by Kirby101 View Post
    Great pitch for the Studio heads to the Board, "Hey guys from now on we will make a couple of billion less each year, but we will make small, important movies." Yeah, that's the ticket.

    And BTW, you would also be eliminating many Pixar and CGI animated movies. They can be in the $150 to $200 million range.
    I answer your first point above, Plus I didn't say eliminate all I said they would make one or two of those types of movies a year.

    The second point you guys are not understanding how often Blockbuster miss and lose money. I am going just throw out a list of 2019 films and we can take a guess of how many them actually made for money for the studios

    Battle Angel
    Shaft
    MIB International
    Dark Phoenix
    Glass
    Dumbo
    Pet Cemetry
    Hellboy
    Ad Astra
    Gemini Man
    Terminator Dark Fate
    Charlies Angel

    Disney had one of the strongest years and Dark Phoenix was bad enough to actually hurt the company in quarterly reports. You are guys are putting too much emphasis on the hits and not enough focus on flops and mediocre performers. Plus Disney and Universal is the outlier, not the norm not everyone can pull out Avengers, Fast& Furious,Jurassic World or Star Wars to save the day.

    The point is it isn't as hard-sell you guys think with failing projects in the equation which those big hits have to cover. The market model everyone is looking at is Netflix in 2018 they made 18 billion dollars, in 2019 they made 20 billion. Netflix made 20 billion with no Avengers Endgame or Joker. If you are looking at Netflix as a movie studio that is kinda silly. That was the point I was making when customer retention is your goal you only need a couple of big projects and then a steady stream of solid mid-tier projects to keep customers. Disney made around 13 billion with its movies in 2019. Of course, movie studios want to keep the theater system around because it is extra big money. But the world where streaming services are the Theater system isn't that bad for them either. And Covid has given movie companies a reason to transition away from theaters being the main source.

    There is a reason why more movie studios are willing to burn the theater system to the ground today. They all see themselves as Netflix and the pitch to the board is we can make 18 billion. The question is do you go movie every month? No. A subscription service is trying to turn that person into 12 movie a month moviegoer. Growing people into that has massive value what you lose in explosive box office success, You gain in consistent monthly earning. You grow a large enough base ats some point will even out what you lose from the theaters and you will be a more consistent business and don't forget they are cost associated with releasing a movie and people taking a cut of the profit that doesn't happen with streaming.
    Last edited by Killerbee911; 12-05-2020 at 02:26 AM.

  8. #668
    Astonishing Member Killerbee911's Avatar
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    It is worth the effort to transition to streaming IF companies figure out how to charge people for a new movie on a streaming service. Like I said Disney with Mulan kinda show they can do that. it is possible they can somewhat offset the loss of box office with an extra charge for new movies on streaming. The current system is

    Movie theater--> Vod/ Home video--> Premium channel/Streaming service --> Network TV

    It can be changed to

    Early access streaming/pay to watch at home(and Movie theater)--> Vod--> Streaming service-->Network TV

    Whoever figures out how to charge for new movies on streaming and not have the public turn on them wins the war. I have seen enough people be fine with Mulan at 30 dollars to think it could work. Disney has the hits with MCU stuff to push through this plan but they are also the people who lose the most.
    Last edited by Killerbee911; 12-05-2020 at 04:17 AM.

  9. #669
    Incredible Member basbash99's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Killerbee911 View Post
    Yes it would have still be made they(Netflix) made

    Old Guard 70 million
    Project power 85 million
    Extraction 50 million

    Lower Budget doesn't mean cheap it means not spending 150 to 200 million-plus another 100 million advertising for a movie to flop. Netflix has also funded 6 Underground/Triple Frontier/Irishman all in the 115 to 150 dollar range. I don't know where this idea of quality will drop into oblivion. And Netflix isn't Apple, Disney, WB, Amazon who can throw money at things.

    All it means that instead of throwing near 200 to 300 million make and advertise Kong vs Godzilla, They would go try to make Kong vs Godzilla with a 85 to 150 budget. And since we are a streaming service we don't care about advertising in the same as a normal movie. Hollywood is a better place when the answer isn't to throw more special effects at things to make it a spectacle hoping to make more money.




    I answer your first point above, Plus I didn't say eliminate all I said they would make one or two of those types of movies a year.

    The second point you guys are not understanding how often Blockbuster miss and lose money. I am going just throw out a list of 2019 films and we can take a guess of how many them actually made for money for the studios

    Battle Angel
    Shaft
    MIB International
    Dark Phoenix
    Glass
    Dumbo
    Pet Cemetry
    Hellboy
    Ad Astra
    Gemini Man
    Terminator Dark Fate
    Charlies Angel

    Disney had one of the strongest years and Dark Phoenix was bad enough to actually hurt the company in quarterly reports. You are guys are putting too much emphasis on the hits and not enough focus on flops and mediocre performers. Plus Disney and Universal is the outlier, not the norm not everyone can pull out Avengers, Fast& Furious,Jurassic World or Star Wars to save the day.

    The point is it isn't as hard-sell you guys think with failing projects in the equation which those big hits have to cover. The market model everyone is looking at is Netflix in 2018 they made 18 billion dollars, in 2019 they made 20 billion. Netflix made 20 billion with no Avengers Endgame or Joker. If you are looking at Netflix as a movie studio that is kinda silly. That was the point I was making when customer retention is your goal you only need a couple of big projects and then a steady stream of solid mid-tier projects to keep customers. Disney made around 13 billion with its movies in 2019. Of course, movie studios want to keep the theater system around because it is extra big money. But the world where streaming services are the Theater system isn't that bad for them either. And Covid has given movie companies a reason to transition away from theaters being the main source.

    There is a reason why more movie studios are willing to burn the theater system to the ground today. They all see themselves as Netflix and the pitch to the board is we can make 18 billion. The question is do you go movie every month? No. A subscription service is trying to turn that person into 12 movie a month moviegoer. Growing people into that has massive value what you lose in explosive box office success, You gain in consistent monthly earning. You grow a large enough base ats some point will even out what you lose from the theaters and you will be a more consistent business and don't forget they are cost associated with releasing a movie and people taking a cut of the profit that doesn't happen with streaming.
    I agree with all of this. And of course some of this is making lemonade out of lemons as it does not appear that billion dollar box office returns on a movie are coming back in the immediate future, and who knows how long theaters can putter along with minimal attendance before they go out of business (barring some sort of influx of cash from the federal govt)

  10. #670
    Ultimate Member Kirby101's Avatar
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    Glass -$20 million
    Hellboy-$50 million
    Shaft - $40 million
    Pet Cemetary-$20 million
    Charles Angels - $70 million.

    So huh?

    I think you don't get that Netflix intended many of those movies you praise to be released at the theaters and recoup some of their money at the box office. Something they will go back to when the pandemic is over.
    There came a time when the Old Gods died! The Brave died with the Cunning! The Noble perished locked in battle with unleashed Evil! It was the last day for them! An ancient era was passing in fiery holocaust!

  11. #671
    Astonishing Member Killerbee911's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kirby101 View Post
    Glass -$20 million
    Hellboy-$50 million
    Shaft - $40 million
    Pet Cemetary-$20 million
    Charles Angels - $70 million.

    So huh?

    I think you don't get that Netflix intended many of those movies you praise to be released at the theaters and recoup some of their money at the box office. Something they will go back to when the pandemic is over.
    Shaft made 21 million,It had 35 million dollar budget,it had an advertising budget that isn't included in that number
    Hellboy made 44 million, It had 50 million budget and of course, it had an advertising budget that isn't included in that number
    Charlies angel had 55 million budget,it made 70 million worldwide, it had an advertising budget that isn't included in that number

    2 movies out of the five movies you used actually made a profit.I generally picked out movies for a reason, Point was they release a lot of movies that aren't a success and they often offset those big movies that are successful.

    And no Netflix didn't intend for the movies I mention to be released in the theaters because those movie were either made for Netflix or bought by Netflix, Now whatever company that made Irishman and Triple Frontier probably did but it tells you something that "choose" to skip movie theaters. Stuff only gets sold to Netflix when the movie studio thinks a movie can't recoup the money at the box office or even worse would actually lose money. Which only strengths the point I was making of how hard it is for movies to be successful and make a profit.

    And clearly, Netflix buying those movies to show on its service is not an issue for them to have a mediocre movie. For a streaming service some movies serve different purposes. Irishman or Triple Frontier are just needed to grab interest for a short while. Again you just need one or two things that grab a sub for sure( ala Avengers, Game of Thrones,Star Wars) then you can release stuff like the Witcher, Lost in Space, Extraction, Old Guard, Alter Carbon, etc to grab people for a month.

    Even worse right now Netflix has arguably nothing worth getting a sub for and they made 20 billion, Disney had maybe the great year ever in the movie business with Avengers, Lion King, Toy Story, Aladdin, Frozen II, Star Wars, Captain Marvel, and technically Far from Home to make 13 Billion from its movie properties. Which business model do you want to be in? The streaming model isn't without its negatives but I think when you compare a single studio to what Netflix makes it is more comparable than people think AND then you then have to remember that the movie theater industry was the thing that kept Netflix out of the Theater business. Or else Netflix would be release movies in the theater as well. And look likes that barrier is dropping right now with Warner Bros/HBO max is doing now.
    Last edited by Killerbee911; 12-05-2020 at 10:14 AM.

  12. #672
    Ultimate Member Kirby101's Avatar
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    You are confusing gross revenue with net profit. Disney is clearly more profitable.

    For pre-COVID 2019.


    And Netflix does have a cash flow problem.
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatsp...h=33e934ee29a6

    And in the end your argument that studios stop making big blockbusters and turn to smaller films and stream only is just an idle musing not grounded in any reality that could happen.
    There is zero chance the big feature blockbuster will be abandoned.
    There came a time when the Old Gods died! The Brave died with the Cunning! The Noble perished locked in battle with unleashed Evil! It was the last day for them! An ancient era was passing in fiery holocaust!

  13. #673
    Astonishing Member Killerbee911's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kirby101 View Post
    And in the end your argument that studios stop making big blockbusters and turn to smaller films and stream only is just an idle musing not grounded in any reality that could happen.
    There is zero chance the big feature blockbuster will be abandoned.
    When was that my argument? You said
    Unless you can show how movies that cost hundreds of millions of dollars can be profitable with VOD
    And I said
    Or they could stop making movies that cost 100 million plus. And start making more movies that cost 20 to 50 million. A streaming service needs just one or two killer programming aka Game of Thrones or Mandolorian
    Basically, start to make things that cost less that would be profitable with VoD. Nowhere in my argument said anything about stop making blockbusters movies altogether.

    I didn't mistake anything I said that Netflix made 20 billion, Disney made 13 Billion. I wasn't talking about profit because Netflix has to aggressively produce content since everyone is taking back their content. Making them have to shift their business from licensing business to original content business. To stay ahead of other companies Netflix has to create an original back catalog and original content at the same time. They made a commitment to make 20 billion dollars worth of original content it is understood why they aren't making a huge profit.

    Nothing is wrong with the business model, They grew the subs to point where they could make 20 billion. It is unfortunate that they have to borrow and aggressively spend at this stage and yes they are some worrisome thing about the future. But again Disney had its greatest year as film company they made 3.4 B in profit and Netflix is right there 2.6 B. They aren't going to pull Avengers Endgame, Lion King and Star Wars again. Going "ha Disney made more profit" feels silly to me.But since we are pulling out things that don't matter to greater point Netflix made 6 Billion in Revenue in the third quarter this year, Also

    Netflix noted that it added 26 million paid new subscribers in the first two quarters of 2020 alone; in 2019, the company added 28 million subscribers in total
    Something tells me Netflix profits will be close or more than last year while the other companies will go down. See how pointing out anomaly as normal is pointless.
    Last edited by Killerbee911; 12-05-2020 at 11:34 AM.

  14. #674
    Incredible Member luprki's Avatar
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    WB has announced that all movies in 2021 will release on HBO Max and theaters on the same day.
    Another major death blow to movie theaters.

  15. #675
    Extraordinary Member Holt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joker View Post
    Why is this alarming? It's a big d'uh if you ask me.
    I said earlier in the year on a few sites that the current generation raised on the internet doesn't have the aversion to watching movies on iPhones, tablets, laptops and TVs that older people might, and was usually met with skepticism and resistance. There are a lot of people who feel because they don't like home viewing, nobody else does either.

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