Will COVID-19 end theatrical movies

[hyped78]

With all do respect, everything you said is completely wrong, but I’m not in the mood to go into detail since I already explained my side. So let’s agree to disagree.

I can’t get into too much detail but I actually work in the industry (not Disney, to be clear), my job is to literally negotiate with studios/rights owners regarding content acquisition and rights for some territories. I know the economics of streaming from my employer’s perspective and I know the stance of studios from my conversations with them. I have just read back some pages, as I hadn’t read everything, and what you have been saying makes very little to no sense.

There are market surveys done in the last year that show that customers are OK to pay $10-$15 for theater tickets but believe that paying $30 for household streaming is too expensive, even if that is somewhat counter intuitive.

Mulan on VOD on Disney+ was a flop (did not break even) for example, which ties in closely with Black Widow’s postponement. Flexibility is great for customers, but VOD isn’t picking up theater numbers.

[Vakanai]

With all do respect, everything you said is completely wrong. What you seem to not understand is the theater model work differently from the streaming model. The theater model is based on box office ticket sell, the streaming model is based on subscriptions, Cruella maybe free in two months on D+ but the people who are willing to wait still has to buy a subscription. Either way Disney+ still wins. Even the people who purchased for $30 has to buy a subscription. Streaming is all about subscriptions, it not about one movie’s profit. If Cruella brings in subscriptions now or in two month that is bigger profit than theaters could bring in.

Only if many of those subscribers stay subscribed. And not all subscribers will come to the service to watch this movie. So how much Cruella actually contributes to subscription numbers, and if its contribution is profitable, are unknown.

[luprki]

I don't know either. All I know is streaming numbers are always a month behind. And I don't know where they get these numbers from. The individual service or what. How accurate are those? But one thing that confuses me is if the news from Cruella for purchases is as good as you say and I have no reason to doubt it is why wouldn't Disney plus actually announce that? That would drive-up their stock, etc ect. It just seems weird to me. I mean Disney+ knows exactly how many people streamed this movie. If its actually triple the reported numbers that is huge news.

I wished D+, HBOMAX and all the others would report their numbers too. That way we’ll know what happening with the theaters vs streaming. But like I said in a previous post, with streamers it’s all about monthly subscriptions and not about how much one particular movie or series make.
With theaters, the purpose of a movie is to sell tickets to make money for the studios and the theaters.
With streaming, the purpose of a movie or series is to make money for the studio and attract monthly subscribers.

[hyped78]

Huh interesting. I mean these are Nielsen numbers for may 3rd to may 9th are you saying these are only 30 percent of the actual views?

Original Series

1. Jupiter’s Legacy (Netflix), 696 million minutes viewed
2. The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu), 690 million
3. Selena: The Series (Netflix), 639 million
4. Shadow and Bone (Netflix), 555 million
5. The Sons of Sam: A Descent Into Darkness (Netflix), 461 million
6. The Circle (Netflix), 456 million
7. Star Wars: The Bad Batch (Disney+), 251 million
8. The Crown (Netflix), 210 million
9. The Falcon and the Winter Soldier (Disney+), 204 million
10. Lucifer (Netflix), 190 million

No. Nielsen use streaming meters installed in panel (sample) homes, similar to what they have been doing with traditional tv ratings for years, and then they statistically extrapolate accounting for slicers such as age, gender, income, etc., also disregarding “noise” (e.g. people that only stream 5 minutes of a movie); what you have above are their estimated totals, anyone can subscribe to NPower and review those numbers. Their panels are considered highly reliable in the industry, even if their streaming panels are somewhat recent.

There is a caveat to the way they publish those charts above, though - which is that you need to normalize viewership by the actual content duration. Some of their tools allow for their subscribers to do that. In other words - Jupiter’s Legacy has 696MM streamed minutes but only 8 episodes total (it has been cancelled, btw).

[luprki]

Only if many of those subscribers stay subscribed. And not all subscribers will come to the service to watch this movie. So how much Cruella actually contributes to subscription numbers, and if its contribution is profitable, are unknown.

The streamers ain’t dumb, they already know every subscriber is not going to say, but they think or know enough will say. The streaming services have a lot to offer and people don’t realize that until they subscribe. So for example, if Cruella attracts 100 subscribers and only 20 subscribers stay, that’s a win for D+, now on to the next attractions like Black Window or a MCU series or a Star War series or a Pixar movie. They are building subscribers.

[hyped78]

The streamers ain’t dumb, they already know every subscriber is not going to say, but they think or know enough will say. The streaming services have a lot to offer and people don’t realize that until they subscribe. So for example, if Cruella attracts 100 subscribers and only 20 subscribers stay, that’s a win for D+, now on to the next attractions like Black Window or a MCU series or a Star War series or a Pixar movie. They are building subscribers.

You are somehow assuming most people paying for Cruella VOD are new Disney+ subscribers - do you have, in any way, data to back up that assumption?

[luprki]

You are somehow assuming most people paying for Cruella VOD are new Disney+ subscribers - do you have, in any way, data to back up that assumption?

Never said nor insinuated that. That’s just your interpretation.

[numberthirty]

Never said nor insinuated that. That’s just your interpretation.

So...

Something like -

I Don't Really Have Much That Is Concrete To Base This On, But My Estimate Is Eighty Million Made From Streaming.

You can't see why folks have an issue with entertaining a number like that?

[hyped78]

Never said nor insinuated that. That’s just your interpretation.

“So for example, if Cruella attracts 100 subscribers and only 20 subscribers stay... They are building up subscribers”

And you are just making stuff up without any data (as per the $80MM figure before).

[hyped78]

So...

Something like -



You can't see why folks have an issue with entertaining a number like that?

He’s just inventing to fit the narrative

[inisideguy]

No. Nielsen use streaming meters installed in panel (sample) homes, similar to what they have been doing with traditional tv ratings for years, and then they statistically extrapolate accounting for slicers such as age, gender, income, etc., also disregarding “noise” (e.g. people that only stream 5 minutes of a movie); what you have above are their estimated totals, anyone can subscribe to NPower and review those numbers. Their panels are considered highly reliable in the industry, even if their streaming panels are somewhat recent.

There is a caveat to the way they publish those charts above, though - which is that you need to normalize viewership by the actual content duration. Some of their tools allow for their subscribers to do that. In other words - Jupiter’s Legacy has 696MM streamed minutes but only 8 episodes total (it has been cancelled, btw).

Hey great info thanks! Are those numbers just North America or Worldwide?

[chicago_bastard]

Numbers suggest that the majority of subscribers that purchased Mulan and Raya have already been Disney+ subscribers for some time. The graph for new sign-ups is constantly on a low level and the increase in sign-ups prior to the releases of Mulan and Raya was rather insignificant. The highest peaks in new subscriptions actually came when The Mandalorian and Soul were added to Disney+ without extra cost.

disney+.jpg

Also prioritizing movies just doesn't make much sense for a subscription service. The customer signs up to watch the film he wants to see and cancels his subscription immediately. Series are actually a much more reasonable format for subscription services because they are more likely to keep the subscribers committed over a longer period of time.

[hyped78]

Hey great info thanks! Are those numbers just North America or Worldwide?

It’s US only!

[luprki]

Everybody don’t cancel subscriptions, I’m pretty sure Disney+ has more permanent subscribers than they did before Soul, before Mulan, before Cruella and they will pickup more with Black Widow.

[hyped78]

Numbers suggest that the majority of subscribers that purchased Mulan and Raya have already been Disney+ subscribers for some time. The graph for new sign-ups is constantly on a low level and the increase in sign-ups prior to the releases of Mulan and Raya was rather insignificant. The highest peaks in new subscriptions actually came when The Mandalorian and Soul were added to Disney+ without extra cost.

disney+.jpg

Also prioritizing movies just doesn't make much sense for a subscription service. The customer signs up to watch the film he wants to see and cancels his subscription immediately. Series are actually a much more reasonable format for subscription services because they are more likely to keep the subscribers committed over a longer period of time.

Very interesting - and telling - chart.