Will COVID-19 end theatrical movies

[numberthirty]

In other words, you have no data.
The only data that is out is the Samba TV data, which goes against your theory.

Politely, that is just plain incorrect.

We have hard numbers that have repeatedly pointed to that the theaters are maintaining their piece of the whole. Even in an instance where it is provably more difficult for them to do so.

Since we know that the whole has to be finite?

There is no version of the thing where the streaming haul is anything better than "Just Ok..."

If it was actually any better than "Just Ok..."?

If would be reflected in the theater numbers because streaming would be cutting into theater's share of what is a finite total.

Since theaters numbers clearly point to that nothing that is anything like that is actually taking place?

That is all of the data that we need on streaming's numbers. Which are clearly "Just Ok..."

[numberthirty]

The rumor is a streaming bundle will be “a la carte”. So we won’t be forced to pay for a streaming service we’re not going to watch.

If streaming services are truly so desperate that they have to make deals where it is incredibly simple to just cut them out of the equation?

One more thing pointing to that streaming is not much of a threat to theaters.

[chicago_bastard]

Maybe you were not around when Game of Thrones or Walk Dead was hot. It is a silly argument imo because we have had event shows that huge cultural impact.

Maybe you didn't read the part where I explicitly excluded series. Series and movies don't work the same way, one of them was always watched on TV screens, thus it naturally works on streaming services as well as in earlier times via broadcast.

Wonder Woman 1984 had a huge impact among people online and a large number of people talk about it largely because they watch it home if it was a theater release it wouldn't have gotten the same attention, the first one which did better in the theater didn't have the same chatter. Wandavision was a social media monster, Invincible pick up online because of social media chatter.

WW1984 had no impact at all apart from getting panned for how bad it is, so I don't know what you are talking about. The first one had less impact? We seem to live on different planets, on mine it was a sensation. Everybody was talking about the first successful female-led comic book movie.

I get the feeling you are mistaking your social media bubble for the general audience which is a common problem these days. WandaVision's impact also doesn't come close to that of theatrical MCU movies. It may have been big on Twitter but Twitter is by no means representatve of the general population. And then again it's a show, not a movie, and it largely benefitted from the format with people waiting tensely one week for the next episode, so it's hardly transferable to movies anyway.

If you want another example look at Zack Snyder's Justice League. If you leave its specific target audience like this forum you will see that it's already forgotten or was never a big deal for general audiences in the first place. And we are talking about a movie with arguably the two biggest superheroes of all.

Better yet all I have to say is "Birdbox". Theaters are not the only place where things reach event status that is romanticizing theaters' impact Tv and Streaming have done similar things.

Who is still talking about Bird Box though? Did it really have the same buzz as A Quiet Place in the first place? I doubt it. There are many Neflix movies that got some Twitter buzz when they came out but are almost forgotten nowadays. Who is talking about The Platform anymore? I had to look up its name. I'd have trouble naming ten exclusive Netflix movies older than a year that are still part of the collective memory.

There's also a logical explanation for theatrical movies creating bigger hype. A movie with traditional distribution has buzz when it's released to theaters, then it gets some buzz again when it comes to home entertainment. A streaming movie has only one release, thus cutting the possible time frames for buzz down to one.

As for Pirating, it exists in the world right now. I can watch F9, the new Conjuring, and Quiet place II right now. Things being Theater base does not lead to less pirating, Pirating is happening as we speak. Pirating does not stop because of quality. Because these are people who will watch FREE decent pirated copy and wait until they can get a FREE good copy. It is Free part that matters over the quality part. And you don't have to wait long for a decent watchable copy.

If you don't see the difference between a bad-quality recording made with a smartphone from a theater screen and a perfect 4K copy from a streaming service I don't know what to tell you. On the one hand you get the exact same experience, there is no major difference if you stream a movie on your TV screen from Disney+ for more than 30 USD or stream it on the same TV screen from an illegal site. On the other hand no piracy site can recreate the theatrical experience. Your claim that nobody cares about quality doesn't sound very convincing and you haven't backed it up with anything but your own opinion. I provided evidence that piracy increased during the pandemic when streaming was the only way movies were distributed, in my view that's hardly a coincidence.

Anyways the music industry has proven that a large number of people will pay for a product they can easily pirate in an easy format. Pirating hasn't gone away in the music industry but a large cheap-to-access format means a large number of people pick that over pirating. Streaming focused movie world will have a similar effect. Pirating is a problem Period and will remain to be that until you get a primary format and tech for watching that is hard to pirate and who knows Maybe that is VR. If you aren't stopping pirating outright then maximizing the people who do pay by making content easy to access and cheap is maybe the best good strategy.

You mean the industry where I can subscribe to one service and get basically music from almost all artists in one place? You think that's an apt comparison to a business where - assumed we get the streaming fantasy you obviously wish for - someone who wants to watch the next MCU movie, the next Bond film, the next entry of the Fast saga, the next M:I flick and the next DC movie has to subscrive to five different services?

[luprki]

Politely, that is just plain incorrect.

We have hard numbers that have repeatedly pointed to that the theaters are maintaining their piece of the whole. Even in an instance where it is provably more difficult for them to do so.

Since we know that the whole has to be finite?

There is no version of the thing where the streaming haul is anything better than "Just Ok..."

If it was actually any better than "Just Ok..."?

If would be reflected in the theater numbers because streaming would be cutting into theater's share of what is a finite total.

Since theaters numbers clearly point to that nothing that is anything like that is actually taking place?

That is all of the data that we need on streaming's numbers. Which are clearly "Just Ok..."

Again, in others words you have no data

If streaming services are truly so desperate that they have to make deals where it is incredibly simple to just cut them out of the equation?

One more thing pointing to that streaming is not much of a threat to theaters.

Nope, it means it’s a bigger threat. The more popular streaming gets the more chance of a bundle. Once the bundles starts, it’s all she wrote. I give it five years (2026) when streaming become dominant.

[numberthirty]

Again, in others words you have no data

...

Repeating this will not somehow magically make it the case...

The only other possibility where streaming would have numbers that are anything better than "Just Ok..." would be if they notably increased the finite total. Never mind that they would have done so when it comes to a prequel that focuses on a rather niche character.

Which is rather unlikely.

...

Nope, it means it’s a bigger threat. The more popular streaming gets the more chance of a bundle. Once the bundles starts, it’s all she wrote. I give it five years (2026) when streaming become dominant.

Now, who is talking in an absence of data?

First, you have nothing more than a "Rumor..." that streaming bundling could happen at some point...

Second, you are making predictions in years after streaming is dominant even though current data suggests that anything like streaming "Dominance..." is not in the cards for quite a while.

[luprki]

Repeating this will not somehow magically make it the case...

The only other possibility where streaming would have numbers that are anything better than "Just Ok..." would be if they notably increased the finite total. Never mind that they would have done so when it comes to a prequel that focuses on a rather niche character.

Which is rather unlikely.



Now, who is talking in an absence of data?

First, you have nothing more than a "Rumor..." that streaming bundling could happen at some point...

Second, you are making predictions in years after streaming is dominant even though current data suggests that anything like streaming "Dominance..." is not in the cards for quite a while.

Where are you getting your information on streaming just being ok?

And the thing about the bundle is a rumor, nothing wrong with divulging that fact.

The 5 years is just a prediction and no data exist to suggesting yay or nay.

[numberthirty]

In almost entirely unsurprising news...

https://editorial.rottentomatoes.com...he-box-office/

Weekend Box Office Results: The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It Scores $24 Million Win As Horror Revives the Box Office

Krasinski’s film is becoming the new standard to beat in this period, taking in over $88 million in its first 10 days, and is hoping to pass GvK to become the first film since Sonic the Hedgehog on February 23, 2020 to gross $100 million. After $463,000 this weekend, GvK stands at $99.1 million; if Quiet falls off just 55% or less from last week’s weekdays haul, it could reach $100 million by Thursday. A Quiet Place Part II is currently on pace somewhere between Mad Max: Fury Road and Terminator Salvation, which would put it on the path for somewhere between $130 million and 140 million when all is said and done. It’s nice to be able to consider first estimates again as theaters begin to make their comeback.

[inisideguy]

I am not going out on a limb here. But I am predicting a huge opening for Black Widow. Well over 100 million domestic first weekend.

[luprki]

In almost entirely unsurprising news...

https://editorial.rottentomatoes.com...he-box-office/

You are giving box office data, not streaming data. Where is the streaming data proving it is just okay?

[luprki]

I am not going out on a limb here. But I am predicting a huge opening for Black Widow. Well over 100 million domestic first weekend.

I’ll say $70-$85mil, maybe $90 mil box office
$60-$70 million streaming

[numberthirty]

You are giving box office data, not streaming data. Where is the streaming data proving it is just okay?

Again, this is pretty simple...

Unless we have anything like proof that streaming created a pretty insane one-hundred percent total?

(In This Instance, We Would Need To Actually Buy Into That Streaming Would Put QPII At Something Like Twenty-Five Million North Of Either Mad Max:Fury Road/Terminator Salvation For It To Be Anything Like Streaming Doing Better Than "Just OK...")

What reason do we actually have to buy into that instead of the perfectly logical conclusion that it will make a solid but reasonable buck off of mostly theaters?

Why should we buy into a somewhat fantastical scenario when a pretty reasonable one is right there in front of us all?

[luprki]

Just because box office looks good doesn’t mean streaming numbers are just okay, and vice visa. The little data we do have is the Samba TV data, where it can reasonably be estimated what the number might be.

[numberthirty]

Never mind that there is the really obvious problem with that streaming is kicking in even "Just OK..." numbers in this particular instance...

https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/...us/7586467002/

"A Quiet Place Part II" is dominating the box office—here's how to stream it at home

Now, the sequel, A Quiet Place Part II, is showing in theaters across the country and is already dominating the box office, but if you still prefer to watch movies from home, you’re in luck. The film will have a streaming release 45 days after its initial release, meaning you can stream A Quiet Place Part II on Paramount+ on July 12, 2021.

[Wildling]

Never mind that there is the really obvious problem with that streaming is kicking in even "Just OK..." numbers in this particular instance...

https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/...us/7586467002/

Basically the studio prioritized getting it out in theaters for 45 days first, result being it has already more than doubled its (several times higher than the previous pre-pandemic movie) budget worldwide in theaters and you don't see any of them bellyaching about it. Quite the opposite, a spin-off is already announced not even being out of the theatrical window yet.

[luprki]

This is how the studios really screwed the theaters. When a movie is released most of the money goes to the studios in the early weeks and most to the theaters in the later weeks. Usually a big moneymaker blockbuster will stay in theaters from 10 to 12 weeks. From 6 to 12 week the theaters makes about 80%-90% of the ticket sells. But the studio has decided to go to streaming after the 6 weeks in theaters, meaning theaters is going to make a lot less money. Just think how much will be lost by theaters for a big franchise movie in the later weeks. We all know a MCU movie still does well after 6 weeks, now the theaters will lose that 80%-90% off of ticket sells. The studios took advantage of covid. Theaters were and still struggling financially, some are on the brink of bankruptcy and they have no leverage against the studios. The studios have effectively taken the late weeks money from the theaters.