Will COVID-19 end theatrical movies

[WestPhillyPunisher]

Man, movie tickets in Philly are pretty cheap. Around here $30 is closer to 2 tickets.

Well, maybe that's because I always shoot for the matinee! HA!

That said, i'm sure the thinking is that families will watch Mulan together so its probably closer to an ordinary ticket price (or less) depending on how many people watch. Because it certainly wouldn't make much sense for an individual to shell out $30 to watch one movie at home.

Guess we'll see how this works out. In the end, if disney and the like can't figure out how to make a profit off big-budget films, why would they keep making them. Sure, shows like Mandalorean have pretty huge budgets but how many of those can they make off streaming service revenue (well, and related merchandising, i suppose).

Don't forget home releases on shiny little discs for those who, for whatever reason, aren't into streaming movies or TV shows. I know a few friends who are like that.

[Gaastra]

More info. Disney says this will be a "one time thing".


https://variety.com/2020/film/news/m...re-1234711185/

“We’re looking at ‘Mulan’ as a one-off as opposed to saying there’s some new business windowing model that we’re looking at,” Chapek said Tuesday on the company’s earnings call.

Disney may be signaling to exhibitors that it’s not turning its back on cinemas and that it will respect their ability to have exclusive access to the studio’s content, but Chapek wouldn’t be so interested in testing the waters if the possibility didn’t exist that the studio would dive back into streaming with some other oft-delayed theatrical release. There’s plenty to pick from on that score. Disney has shelved a number of buzzy titles since the pandemic shuttered theaters. Tellingly, Chapek said that Disney wants to “learn from it and see the actual number of transactions.” If those numbers are good, will “Mulan” still be a one-off?

It’s also notable that the form of premium VOD that Disney is testing is very different and potentially more lucrative than others deployed by studios. “Mulan” will cost roughly $10 more than Universal charged for “Trolls World Tour” and it’s sticking the price of a subscription on top of that bill. It remains to be seen if that will be too rich for consumers at a time when unemployment is reaching Great Depression-era levels and benefits may be cut. It certainly makes “Mulan” the priciest VOD release since the failed attempt to offer 2011’s “Tower Heist” to cable subscribers for $60 three weeks after it opened. Universal, the studio behind the Ben Stiller-Eddie Murphy comedy, abandoned those plans in the wake of exhibitor upheaval.

So from the sound of it you don't need to pay for disney plus to buy it. Not sure how that will work. Like offline play? Also mulan will still get a release overseas at the movies.

[AndrewCrossett]

Don't forget home releases on shiny little discs for those who, for whatever reason, aren't into streaming movies or TV shows. I know a few friends who are like that.

I'm like that. I have nothing against streaming, but if it's something I'll want to watch more than once I need to own it in a format nobody can take away/censor.

[BeastieRunner]

If I go see Mulan in theatres with my family, the ticket price alone is ~$60 for mantiee for my family, ~$40 for a family of 4.

$30 is a steal and I don't have to pay for a $4 soda, 3 $5 kids packs, and a $7 popcorn.

Disney is saving me over $50 to watch it at home!

Now if I was single, the $30 would give me pause. Date with wife? Maybe. Family movie? HELL YES!

If Mulan makes 80% of it's projected revenue like Trolls World Tour did, tacking on the added $10 more, this movie will be the litmus test for if theaters will open back up again. This could kill or at least, drastically alter theaters forever.

Also, if you paid attention to the announcement, they said Black Widow will follow if Mulan performs okay.

Last, Forbes stated the $10 higher price tag is the rough estimate of theater loss fees which means Disney is testing a model here. IF it works, kiss theaters goodbye.

[Kirby101]

Before COVID they were expecting an $80 million opening weekend and a $800 million B.O..

I wonder if it will make the $200 million budget? A lot will depend on foreign box office.

[WestPhillyPunisher]

If I go see Mulan in theatres with my family, the ticket price alone is ~$60 for mantiee for my family, ~$40 for a family of 4.

$30 is a steal and I don't have to pay for a $4 soda, 3 $5 kids packs, and a $7 popcorn.

Disney is saving me over $50 to watch it at home!

Now if I was single, the $30 would give me pause. Date with wife? Maybe. Family movie? HELL YES!

If Mulan makes 80% of it's projected revenue like Trolls World Tour did, tacking on the added $10 more, this movie will be the litmus test for if theaters will open back up again. This could kill or at least, drastically alter theaters forever.

Also, if you paying attention to the announcement, they said Black Widow will follow if Mulan performs okay.

How will "okay" be defined? 75 percent of a projected box office take? 50 percent? 40 percent? The numbers could be all over the board.

[Scott Taylor]

If Disney is testing a model, then its one that is going to ultimately reduce their revenue. Which is not Disney's way. I'd rather think they are desperately trying to bring in some return on investment. Disney has been doing layoffs, you know, and is set to do more in the future ("massive" according to some).

Maybe when the smoke clears we will all have reduced prices for movies, Disney parks, etc. I can dream. But if they follow their usual MO, Disney will cut back on expenses big time, circle the wagons and raise prices across the board yet again.

[Joker]

If this does well for Disney, I'm sure Black Widow will happen next.

Tenet should follow, despite Nolan's protest. But honestly, **** off, Nolan.

[Holt]

More info. Disney says this will be a "one time thing".


https://variety.com/2020/film/news/m...re-1234711185/

And then in the same article stresses that they’ll be watching the numbers very closely.

Yeah, if this works out for them, they’ll be doing it again.

[WestPhillyPunisher]

If this does well for Disney, I'm sure Black Widow will happen next.

Tenet should follow, despite Nolan's protest. But honestly, **** off, Nolan.

Yeah, it’s no longer Nolan’s call on how Tenet winds up being released, so he’s just going to have to get used to that reality.

[Joker]

Yeah, it’s no longer Nolan’s call on how Tenet winds up being released, so he’s just going to have to get used to that reality.

Or, as much as I love his movies, stop acting like the only way to see it involves risking your health, and the health of others!

Regardless of release, most people will see it on their tv more times than in the theater. And don't get me wrong, Interstellar was absolutely worth seeing in a real IMAX theater. I am 100% glad I saw it that way. I'm also sad that's probably the only time I will see it that way.

I'd still pass if I could see it that way again right now.

[luprki]

Before COVID they were expecting an $80 million opening weekend and a $800 million B.O..

I wonder if it will make the $200 million budget? A lot will depend on foreign box office.

Disney will make more money going straight digital because there is no middle man taking half.

[Vakanai]

Disney will make more money going straight digital because there is no middle man taking half.

Only if as many people treat it as big a deal as theatrical releases - uncertain. Nevermind how many people don't stream for whatever reason (access mostly, we don't all have wifi).

[Havok83]

Only if as many people treat it as big a deal as theatrical releases - uncertain. Nevermind how many people don't stream for whatever reason (access mostly, we don't all have wifi).

The biggest obstacle is that its a paywalled. You have to have D+ in order to even purchase it and not everyone has it. If this launched at $30 on Prime, Vudu and Apple TV and $20-25 on D+, I think that would have been a better way to reach more people

[Vakanai]

The biggest obstacle is that its a paywalled. You have to have D+ in order to even purchase it and not everyone has it. If this launched at $30 on Prime, Vudu and Apple TV and $20-25 on D+, I think that would have been a better way to reach more people

Either way, I think it's far from the death knell for the theater the other poster made it out to be.