Will COVID-19 end theatrical movies

[Killerbee911]

But once Disney+ has a base foundation? It can only afford to do so much streaming first/only/same day. Some movies are going to need big theater numbers to be profitable.
There's a difference between getting the content to make their streaming service profitable, and making their big BIG movies profitable. They want both of those pies.

That is a myth Disney record breaking year 2019 they made 13 billion dollars with stuff like Endgame, Lion King, Star Wars, Toy Story, Frozen, Aladdin, etc. If Disney keeps the current sub count for a year they will make about 9 billion dollars, Netflix at its sub count makes around 18 to 25 billion dollars a year. If Disney studios is only using the profits it movies to fund its other movies then what they will make from streaming fine. If Disney was using funds from other parts of business to supplement the movies it does not matter the streaming service does it?

I agree Disney wants to dip in the theater and streaming pool together but the amount of money streaming makes is silly, there is a reason everyone has jump on the bandwagon now. The stream service model is a different monster you don't have to make profit from a single movie doesn't have to be profitable it just has to contribute to a person keeping the service and overall they will get that money back. It might mean less 200 million dollar movies and more 75 to 100 million dollar ones but then again. Disney has a back catalog and does need to be everything service so it can make more expensive shows and movies than Netflix.

[Jim Kelly]

If Disney owned the movie theatres their movies were shown in, they would care more about keeping them afloat. Disney does own their streaming service, so it follows they want to put content there to keep that going.

[Killerbee911]

If Disney owned the movie theatres their movies were shown in, they would care more about keeping them afloat. Disney does own their streaming service, so it follows they want to put content there to keep that going.

If movie theaters funded movies they wouldn't be in any danger,See how that works? Now until recent there was a law to prevent studios from owning a theater and abusing the system. So the thing we both have mentioned isn't really possibility( I am not sure the law is fully up yet)

The clear thing to see that the theater industry is a middle man. While middle men play a role If I can the product from the source why do I want to mess around with a middle man? If Movie theater are actually good products/ experiences they can survive with movies being released at home the same time.

If you have to create an artificial window for product it is not that good.

[Kirby101]

Streaming isn’t TV, DVD nor VHS. Steaming is success is based on monthly subscriptions. Disney+ will add millions of subscribers when BW is released, most of whom will stay subscribers. Meaning Disney+ will continue to make millions well after the BW release. The studios couldn’t do this with TV, DVD or VHS. Remember with streaming, it’s all about monthly subscribers-a whole different ballgame.

Somehow, I don't think they will get that many new subscribers that will sign on for the privileged of paying another $30 to see BW.

[AndrewCrossett]

I still believe that by the time 2022 rolls around, movie theaters will be as full as they ever were. The ones that couldn't make it through the pandemic will be bought by other companies -- possibly new companies with no debt load -- and things will go right back to the way they were.

All this talk of "new normal" misses how eager people *always* are to get back to the ways they're familiar with. Sometimes with even more enthusiasm. The Spanish flu + WW1 killed many times as many people as Covid has, but was immediately followed by the Roaring Twenties. Even with Prohibition in effect.

Recency bias and the lack of any comparable crises in living memory make us feel like this is the game-changer or all game-changers. But it's not.

[Kirby101]

It's not a question if streaming services are here to stay and that there will continue to be content that drives them. It's whether they will replace and end the theatrical release. I don't think we can look at what is happening during COVID as a metric. First, there was no theater experience to compete with. Second people were literally stuck at home and streaming service were a big outlet for them. When things return to normal in 2022, we will see how the public feels about going to the movies.
There is the undeniable fact that the theater experience is superior in many ways to watching at home. Not everyone cares about this, but many do. And this will drive people back to the theaters. Might not be enough to make a difference, but it is a factor.

[green_garnish]

If Disney owned the movie theatres their movies were shown in, they would care more about keeping them afloat. Disney does own their streaming service, so it follows they want to put content there to keep that going.

All studios care about whatever source the money comes from. Theaters produce a lot of money for them. Streaming services provide a lot of money for them (well, some of them... lol at Paramount).

Studios are not going to sacrifice one for the other. And theaters are not going to stop making a ton of money for them any time soon.

[luprki]

This prediction would be based on what exactly?

Based on how well the MCU has done in the past 10 years. BW well bring in hundreds of millions for Disney+ every month. The studio don’t need theaters anymore, they don’t need theaters taking half of the box office.

[numberthirty]

Based on how well the MCU has done in the past 10 years. BW well bring in hundreds of millions for Disney+ every month. The studio don’t need theaters anymore, they don’t need theaters taking half of the box office.

Politely, this still sounds like straight up "Wishful Thinking..." daydreaming.

BW is Black Widow in you posts, right?

There's not any miscommunication there?

[numberthirty]

Somehow, I don't think they will get that many new subscribers that will sign on for the privileged of paying another $30 to see BW.

Not just to be able to see Black Widow.

Does it maybe get you a few folks that were on the fence?

Sure. That could happen.

The idea that a bunch of people who will start a new subscription and cough up an extra thirty bucks to watch Black Widow is a surefire way to round up a bunch of new loyal subscribers?

Just seems a little far out.

[numberthirty]

I still believe that by the time 2022 rolls around, movie theaters will be as full as they ever were. The ones that couldn't make it through the pandemic will be bought by other companies -- possibly new companies with no debt load -- and things will go right back to the way they were.

All this talk of "new normal" misses how eager people *always* are to get back to the ways they're familiar with. Sometimes with even more enthusiasm. The Spanish flu + WW1 killed many times as many people as Covid has, but was immediately followed by the Roaring Twenties. Even with Prohibition in effect.

Recency bias and the lack of any comparable crises in living memory make us feel like this is the game-changer or all game-changers. But it's not.

While I don't want to go with this example?

Look at what just happened with those kids trying to have a spring break.

The idea that people have completely signed on to being shut ins, and replacing movie theaters with streaming?

Reality is just not lining up with that right now.

[Vakanai]

That is a myth Disney record breaking year 2019 they made 13 billion dollars with stuff like Endgame, Lion King, Star Wars, Toy Story, Frozen, Aladdin, etc. If Disney keeps the current sub count for a year they will make about 9 billion dollars, Netflix at its sub count makes around 18 to 25 billion dollars a year. If Disney studios is only using the profits it movies to fund its other movies then what they will make from streaming fine. If Disney was using funds from other parts of business to supplement the movies it does not matter the streaming service does it?

Okay, so...this makes no sense. You mention movies that broke records at the theaters and then say because of that they'll do fine ditching the theater.
That's just a weird argument.
Okay, so Disney is on track to make a billion dollars through subscriptions. It can do Netflix's 18-25 billion dollars. I fail to see though what this has to do with a reason to drop theatricals. You realize it's not one or the other? They probably aren't looking to replace their theatrical dollars for subscription dollars - being a greedy corporation, it makes more sense that they'll want both huge theater money and huge subscription money. Why would they only want to narrow down to one money source?

I agree Disney wants to dip in the theater and streaming pool together but the amount of money streaming makes is silly, there is a reason everyone has jump on the bandwagon now. The stream service model is a different monster you don't have to make profit from a single movie doesn't have to be profitable it just has to contribute to a person keeping the service and overall they will get that money back. It might mean less 200 million dollar movies and more 75 to 100 million dollar ones but then again. Disney has a back catalog and does need to be everything service so it can make more expensive shows and movies than Netflix.

I get that. I just don't see that being an end to the theater. 200 million dollar movies make a billion dollars at theaters. Even in a world of streaming services. Chances are, making it streaming exclusive won't bump subscriptions much - most people who want it are going to get it like Netflix. So, you get that billion in theaters, then bring it to streaming for a while to help keep your subscribers - who will get plenty of streaming exclusive series anyways. So you get the billion dollar Endgame at theaters and people streaming WandaVision. That's maximizing profit.

[Gaastra]

Kong on the way to opening big?

https://www.koimoi.com/box-office/go...huge-surprise/

https://www.pinkvilla.com/entertainm...ai-saga-662946

https://www.deccanherald.com/enterta...ce-966339.html

Hollywood movie Godzilla vs Kong, which hit the screens on Wednesday (March 24), has opened to a thunderous response at the box office despite the Covid-19 pandemic. According to Warner Bros, the biggie collected Rs 6.4 crore (net) in India on day 1 and exceeded expectations.

[Killerbee911]

We all are doing "predictions", My main prediction is that Movies are going to premier in Theaters and on steaming at the same time. I am predicting that is going to hurt the movie industry enough to change how the market works. I don't think theaters have the leverage to bully Disney or other studios away from messing with exclusivity windows. Maybe we are having a convo about nothing maybe 30 dollars early rentals at home and cheap tickets in movie theaters can coexist.

[Kirby101]

I agree with you totally, but at the same time when you watch FAWS that battle scene looks the same quality as any other big budget MCU blockbuster

FAWS has a per episode budget of $25 million. Or $150 million for the first season. That is a big budget for a small screen show. Among the most expensive TV shows ever and $10 more per episode than The Mandolorian.
A lot of that money goes to the same production cost as a movie. So it can make economic sense to do it for a streaming show, but not one big movie.