Will COVID-19 end theatrical movies

[chicago_bastard]

Disney+ or HBO Max don't make any money though, at this point they are losing deals and considering that Netflix didn't make any profit until last year despite being on the top of streaming services since ten years shows you that it'll be an uphill battle to ever reach the point of profitability for subscription services.

The pipe dream of the studios is that consumers pay 30 dollars to stream a movie on their own platforms, because that way they wouldn't have to share that income with exhibitioners, but Disney's first experiments with Mulan and Raya and the Last Dragon were failures as not enough people were stupid enough to pay 30 dollars for a streaming experience they can have in identical fashion three months later without paying 30 dollars. That's the difference to cinemas, there you have a different experience to streaming and people are willing to pay extra for seeing a movie on the big screen and with much better sound.

Hollywood studios won't abandon theaters because movies are still making the biggest profit that way.

[luprki]

Who said Disney+ and HBOMax don’t make money? Who said Netflix didn’t make a profit until last year. Who said Mulan and Raya and the Last Dragon were failures? Streaming services don’t report this kind of information.

Theatrical movies overall is a money losing business, most of them are box office failures. The only reason why this business model still exists is because of tradition and culture. When Rupert Murdoch was asked why he sold the 20th Century, he said why would he keep a business model that haven’t made a profit in the last 20 years.

Theatrical models don’t make money for studios. Studios can’t survive as a standalone companies like they did in the past, which is why they were sold off to big conglomerates that can absorb the loses.

Paying $30 is cheaper than going to the movie theaters, I take my date to a theater and the tickets are already over $30, that’s not including concessions. And if you have a family of four, $30 is very cheap.

[chicago_bastard]

Who said Disney+ and HBOMax don’t make money? Who said Netflix didn’t make a profit until last year. Who said Mulan and Raya and the Last Dragon were failures? Streaming services don’t report this kind of information.

Of course they report it, corporations have to disclose their financial numbers to their shareholders.

Let's have a look at Disney+: https://www.cbr.com/disney-plus-lose-money-2024/

"The Disney+ streaming service lost $2.8 billion in fiscal 2020, despite adding 74 million subscribers worldwide in 11 months since its launch. The Walt Disney Company doesn't expect the division to be profitable until 2024."

Also there is viewer tracking via Samba TV that measures streaming performance: "Disney won’t abandon theaters based on Mulan’s performance" https://nscreenmedia.com/disney-mulan-pvod-performance/

Theatrical movies overall is a money losing business, most of them are box office failures. The only reason why this business model still exists is because of tradition and culture. When Rupert Murdoch was asked why he sold the 20th Century, he said why would he keep a business model that haven’t made a profit in the last 20 years.

Theatrical models don’t make money for studios. Studios can’t survive as a standalone companies like they did in the past, which is why they were sold off to big conglomerates that can absorb the loses.

Any proof for these claims? Other than the current box office numbers in a pandemic.

[Scott Taylor]

My understanding is that movie theaters don't make much profit on the movies that they show. Most of their profit comes from food sales and advertising. Ever wonder why food prices are so high and all the theaters show ads while you sit waiting for the movie previews to start?

Its funny to think, but one of my local theaters actually survived COVID by selling popcorn. Yes thats correct, they set up a big popcorn stand outside of the theater. I think they were also selling candy.

[Vakanai]

What everybody fail to mention is this trend toward streaming started before the pandemic. Disney has already reorganized their company to focus on streaming. AT&T is spinning off Warner Media with a merger with Discovery to create a streaming giant.
Steaming provides a way for the big studios to get around the 1948 United States v Paramount anti-trust ruling. Studios will again have total control over exhibition of the products without dealing with a middle man. Unfortunately this is the future, I don’t like it either. I hope all of y’all are right, but the studios are going to get their way. What we all are missing is, it doesn’t matter how the box office performs. Technology has giving the studios a way out of this love/hate relationship with theaters.
That’s why I’m very pessimistic about the future of movie theaters.

What you fail to realize is that theaters were still doing well at that time. Do some people once they go streaming quit the theaters? Yes. Do some people still go see the major blockbusters in theaters despite being subscribed to streaming services? YES! You're arguing that it's a trend that'll go on to the extreme where far too few people go to the theaters, but you have provided no evidence of that. Where's the numbers that show the portion of streaming subscribers who quit theaters entirely versus those who still see the big title films on the big screen? If this is the argument you want to make, that is the evidence you need.

[Vakanai]

My understanding is that movie theaters don't make much profit on the movies that they show. Most of their profit comes from food sales and advertising. Ever wonder why food prices are so high and all the theaters show ads while you sit waiting for the movie previews to start?

Its funny to think, but one of my local theaters actually survived COVID by selling popcorn. Yes thats correct, they set up a big popcorn stand outside of the theater. I think they were also selling candy.

True, that's how theaters help make a profit. But the studios make a profit if the movies do great at the theater. And that doesn't look like it's changed any even with the rise of the streaming era.

[luprki]

Of course they report it, corporations have to disclose their financial numbers to their shareholders.

Let's have a look at Disney+: https://www.cbr.com/disney-plus-lose-money-2024/

"The Disney+ streaming service lost $2.8 billion in fiscal 2020, despite adding 74 million subscribers worldwide in 11 months since its launch. The Walt Disney Company doesn't expect the division to be profitable until 2024."

Also there is viewer tracking via Samba TV that measures streaming performance: "Disney won’t abandon theaters based on Mulan’s performance" https://nscreenmedia.com/disney-mulan-pvod-performance/



Any proof for these claims? Other than the current box office numbers in a pandemic.

It takes time to build subscriptions, it’s not surprise that it will take D+ until 2024 to make a profit. Did anyone expect any streaming service to make profit on day one? The answer is no.

About the Mulan article, it made 33 million over opening weekend on D+, but what article is not telling us is how many monthly subscribers did they added because of Mulan, this is where is money is at. And of course Disney or any studio at this time will not abandon the theaters, at least not yet. Wait until all the streaming services start making profit, watch them turn their back on the theaters.

There is no secret that the studio don’t make money with their theatrical releases. Theater attendance peaked 2002, since then it has dropped 23% and that with mega billion dollars blockbusters.
Checkout the blue line for tickets sold. Ignore 2020 and 2021 line.

44C18063-7A2A-448D-96B4-74CD21DF88C1.jpg

True, that's how theaters help make a profit. But the studios make a profit if the movies do great at the theater. And that doesn't look like it's changed any even with the rise of the streaming era.

If a movie makes a profit, it’s not a big profit for the studios. Theaters take half of the gross, China takes 65-70% of gross. Studios get less than half of worldwide box office and that’s before taxes, fees and backend deals with the talents. It’s a bad business model for the studios, but was forced to take after the 1948 ruling. Now after more than 70 years they see a way out of this model.

[numberthirty]

...

If a movie makes a profit, it’s not a big profit for the studios. Theaters take half of the gross, China takes 65-70% of gross. Studios get less than half of worldwide box office and that’s before taxes, fees and backend deals with the talents. It’s a bad business model that the studios, but was forced to take after the 1948 ruling. Now after more than 70 years they see a way out of this model.

You seem to be willfully ignoring some basic math.

Even twenty-five percent of a decent haul?

It will always beat a hundred percent of a lousy haul.

There is no way around that reality.

[luprki]

You seem to be willfully ignoring some basic math.

Even twenty-five percent of a decent haul?

It will always beat a hundred percent of a lousy haul.

There is no way around that reality.

You’re kidding? 25% before taxes, fees and backend deals is nothing. We are not just talking about blockbusters, we are talking about every movie that is released. Why would any business accept only 25-50% when they make a better ROI with a direct to consumer model.

[Vakanai]

If a movie makes a profit, it’s not a big profit for the studios. Theaters take half of the gross, China takes 65-70% of gross. Studios get less than half of worldwide box office and that’s before taxes, fees and backend deals with the talents. It’s a bad business model for the studios, but was forced to take after the 1948 ruling. Now after more than 70 years they see a way out of this model.

Hundreds of millions of dollars is not enough profit.

And you keep ignoring a lot of what people are saying (I noticed you didn't debate my point about what percentage of streaming subscribers still go to theaters vs those that don't) so you'll probably ignore this too - but while subscriptions promise more profit over all that's across all their media content together. Meaning that each particular entry makes less money on its own, meaning they can't afford to spend as much on big blockbuster type properties. Things like Avengers Endgame needs the theaters.

[Vakanai]

You’re kidding? 25% before taxes, fees and backend deals is nothing. We are not just talking about blockbusters, we are talking about every movie that is released. Why would any business accept only 25-50% when they make a better ROI with a direct to consumer model.

I see you still view blockbusters as "also ran" under the mid level movies. Even though everyone else is arguing that's wrong.

[numberthirty]

You’re kidding? 25% before taxes, fees and backend deals is nothing. We are not just talking about blockbusters, we are talking about every movie that is released. Why would any business accept only 25-50% when they make a better ROI with a direct to consumer model.

Easy...

Because they get, and have accepted, the reality that their "We Keep More Of The Pie..." side deal is a side deal.

Do you honestly believe that a film like that most recent "Saw..." spinoff is not an even worse proposition in a "Strictly Streaming..." world?

If it was the cash cow that you believe?

Would AT&T just have sold it off?

[chicago_bastard]

It takes time to build subscriptions, it’s not surprise that it will take D+ until 2024 to make a profit. Did anyone expect any streaming service to make profit on day one?

Yeah, you did in your earlier post. Shall I remind you of what you wrote? Here it is:

Who said Disney+ and HBOMax don’t make money?

You clearly didn't have a clue and now you got the nerve to pretend to have known it beforehand. This is getting embarrassing.

About the Mulan article, it made 33 million over opening weekend on D+, but what article is not telling us is how many monthly subscribers did they added because of Mulan, this is where is money is at.

No, it's not, I just showed you evidence that Disney+ doesn't make profit and you even admitted that there is no money in Disney's subscription model right now, have you already forgotten what you wrote in the exact same post? Mindblowing.

1.1 million users isn't a big number and most of them likely already had a subscription beforehand, so the number of new subscribers due to Mulan is pretty insignificant.

There is no secret that the studio don’t make money with their theatrical releases. Theater attendance peaked 2002, since then it has dropped 23% and that with mega billion dollars blockbusters.
Checkout the blue line for tickets sold. Ignore 2020 and 2021 line.

44C18063-7A2A-448D-96B4-74CD21DF88C1.jpg

Why should I check the blue line, it's the orange line that is important because that is the income, why should studios care about the attendance if they still make more money with less viewers? Also according to your graph the ticket sales numbers were the same in 2019 as in 1995, so that also doesn't paint a picture of decline.

The pandemic years 2020 and 2021 aside the gross was overall growing with the peak year being 2018, and 2019 still being the second-best year of all time. How does that support your claim? It rather points to the opposite.

If a movie makes a profit, it’s not a big profit for the studios. Theaters take half of the gross, China takes 65-70% of gross. Studios get less than half of worldwide box office and that’s before taxes, fees and backend deals with the talents. It’s a bad business model for the studios, but was forced to take after the 1948 ruling. Now after more than 70 years they see a way out of this model.

China is the only market where the distribution is unfavorable for Hollywood studios, in the majority of markets the studios get around 60%.

And 50% of The Lion King's 1.6 billion is more than 100% of Mulan's 50 million.

[Witchfan]

Disney's streaming platform is Disney Plus.
Paramount's streaming platform is Paramount Plus.
Warner Brothers streaming platform is HBO Max.
Universal's streaming platform is Peacock.
MGM has no streaming platform. Amazon is reported to be buying it, giving it Amazon Prime as a streaming platform.
Sony has no streaming platform. It could be bought by Apple or Netflix.

Once every studio has a streaming platform for its movies, theaters will end.

[luprki]

1. The amount of actual dollars profit is less important than the ROI.

2. No one expects any streaming business to make money on day one, it takes time to to build subscribers, this is true with any monthly subscriptions business.

3. No one has disputed Disney+ and HBOMAX lack of profit.

4. Theatrical releases are a different model from streaming. Theatrical relays on box office sales, where streaming relays on monthly subscriptions. Once these studios streaming services build enough subscriptions, they won’t have a need for theatre releases.

5. The blue is trending down, because less people are going to the movies. The orange line is trend up only because ticket prices is increasing faster than the inflation rate. But it’s the blue that telling us that more and more people are staying away from the theaters and the average is going down each year since 2002, well before the pandemic.

6. Don’t get gross mixup with net. A movie will gross more at the box office than streaming, however it’s the net that counts. A stream movie will net more than a theatrical releases.