Coronavirus knocks out direct market - Diamond stops deliveries

[mathew101281]

Interesting discussion about the distribution of comics. I think there is an underlying assumption that as readers/buyers of floppies we tend to forget:

People may love superheroes and fantasy, but that doesn't mean they want to explore the source material. Especially when there are TV, film and video adaptations. Tens of millions of people bought Lord of the Rings books in the last 20 years. But hundreds of millions saw the films. For most of them, that was enough - no need to dig deeper.

Sales of comics began declining in the 1960s because of television. In 1960 the main Superman book sold one million comics per month. By 1970, less than half that. Same distribution method, too. And the 70s were even worse. DC/Marvel didn't walk away from newsstands - the newsstands told them to get lost. They had to find another distribution method.

Yet in the 80s, the X-Men were selling 400,000 copies per month; the hottest thing going. By the mid-90s? 100,000 copies per month. That's because there were already animated series, video games, merchandise.

We live in a media-rich world. Comics are a niche, may always be a niche. Expecting them to be a dominant pop culture force, or even what they were 20 years ago, is just not realistic. I'm sure DC/Marvel will continue to create comic content, and survive - for the purpose of generating multi-media content. And that the model will change over the coming decade - but the purpose is being served. Meaning nothing is actually broken. Far from it, really - basically 40,000 people are willing to pay $4 to read one chapter of a potential Batman film treatment.

The question isn’t whether comics can get back to the way things use to be(it’s not, their is to much competition) the real question is if the market is as big as it could be.

[skyvolt2000]

I'd imagine the instructions would be as clear as the Ultraviolet codes they include in Blu-rays. I was also mainly thinking of giving them #1 issue of the character of whatever movie they were seeing, at first I thought about including a trade but that might too much for a company to part with. When you say 40 pages do you mean original content or something that already exists?

In reality they are doing that.

They are just using floppies. They are using trades.

See it does not matter if the source material matches the film or show. It's about getting the stuff out.

Take Cyborg-what version are you going to go by?

Teen Titans Go?
Justice League?
Doom Patrol?

Archie-aside from getting rid of Chuck Clayton, didn't get rid of the main Archie Universe for Riverdale nor Sabrina nor Katy Keane.

Not one Miles Morales book matches Into the Spiderverse. They haven't even tried.

Marvel Rising in comics acts like Rayshaun Lucas doesn't exist. Meanwhile the toy line and tv show does.

Young Justice-the new run. Where is the version with Static yelling "he needs a girlfriend" in comics? Along with most of the cast who were MIA for 10+ years.

Now Black Panther is mess because they are trying to match the film. Forgetting Shuri is Black Panther's STEP SISTER and an OUTSIDER.

As was Supergirl who matched the show with the comic-EXCEPT for the black guy and her in high school.

Pretty much DC & marvel are more concerned with putting material out versus matching a film or tv show.

That is why you see more reprints versus new stuff that matches that. Exceptions to this would be Transformers, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles & My Little Pony. As well as Bob Burgers-whose books are done by folks from the show.

[Digifiend]

The Marvel Rising comics also used Miles, who isn't in the cartoon! There's no reason that series couldn't have used Rayshaun, considering his established relationship with Kamala from Champions. Though he was probably also a replacement for Gwen Stacy, who was alternate universe at the time.

[Last Son of Krypton]

DC ANNOUNCES THE EXPANSION OF DC DIGITAL FIRST: https://www.dccomics.com/blog/2020/0...f-dc-essential

[Digifiend]

Digital first? Aren't those the new material from the Giants?

[Last Son of Krypton]

Digital first? Aren't those the new material from the Giants?

Yep. They are the same stories.

[Ascended]

We live in a media-rich world. Comics are a niche, may always be a niche. Expecting them to be a dominant pop culture force, or even what they were 20 years ago, is just not realistic. I'm sure DC/Marvel will continue to create comic content, and survive - for the purpose of generating multi-media content. And that the model will change over the coming decade - but the purpose is being served. Meaning nothing is actually broken. Far from it, really - basically 40,000 people are willing to pay $4 to read one chapter of a potential Batman film treatment.

You have excellent insight as always, but I'm not sold on this bit. I'm not sure if anyone here is expecting comic books to be a dominant force again, or even necessarily a considerable one. I certainly am not, at least. But I'd like comics to be on solid ground where they make enough profit to be worth making for their own sake, and not just to maintain copyright/trademarks or to serve as cheap storyboards for potential adaptations.

The direct market is indeed broken. It's on the "dead" end of the industry cycle, where we left growth and sustainability behind us a while ago. The direct market was never a growth market in the first place (which is a different conversation about ignoring long-term needs for short-term survival). So what happens in twenty years, or ten (or less, depending on how this pandemic plays out), when the established consumer base is gone? The direct market, and comics as we understand them, have proven that they can't bring in enough new consumers to replace the established base. Numbers keep falling. So when all us old bastard fans are gone and no one is there to replace us, what happens? At that point, comics won't even be useful as cheap storyboards.

The IP's that DC owns will, of course, survive. There's no question of that at all. But the ongoing, serialized narrative? That's in some real dire straights, and if it doesn't branch out and find new ways to do things, it won't survive. Even if it's never going to be a financial juggernaut again, I have no interest in seeing the entire medium die.

[skyvolt2000]

The Marvel Rising comics also used Miles, who isn't in the cartoon! There's no reason that series couldn't have used Rayshaun, considering his established relationship with Kamala from Champions. Though he was probably also a replacement for Gwen Stacy, who was alternate universe at the time.

True.

I am just saying matching the film or tv show is not important when you are trying to get new readers. You just put out what you have and go from there.

Unless you make everything canon.

Dr Who doesn't have this issue.
Transformers doesn't.
Star Trek neither.

Those fans are not throwing fits.

[Factor]

Yeah, what's really in question here is DC's serialized format and its already fragile continuity. Black Label trades and their kids OGN show there is still potential for DC characters to find new audiences, but we've yet to see anything showing new readers want to jump aboard the mess that is their regular continuity and serialized storytelling.

I for one think DC should start publishing their ongoings in a seasonal model. Publish an entire arc by the same creative team at a time. Have the digital chapters available each week as part of a new digital subscription service and publish the print versions in 100-page digests at $10. This way the print version has more value for money and they're able to launch digital content with a faster pace that's also perfect for binge reading.
No more 20 page floppies. 4 bucks for 20 pages of an unfinished story isn't appealing to the general audience.

[kjn]

The IP's that DC owns will, of course, survive. There's no question of that at all. But the ongoing, serialized narrative? That's in some real dire straights, and if it doesn't branch out and find new ways to do things, it won't survive. Even if it's never going to be a financial juggernaut again, I have no interest in seeing the entire medium die.

Comics—as in ongoing, serialised narrative—are well and fine. Webcomics are the new syndicated daily strips. Mangas and Scholastic titles prove that there is a large untapped market.

It's the floppies and the US "mainstream" comics market that are in trouble.

[superduperman]

Yeah, what's really in question here is DC's serialized format and its already fragile continuity. Black Label trades and their kids OGN show there is still potential for DC characters to find new audiences, but we've yet to see anything showing new readers want to jump aboard the mess that is their regular continuity and serialized storytelling.

I for one think DC should start publishing their ongoings in a seasonal model. Publish an entire arc by the same creative team at a time. Have the digital chapters available each week as part of a new digital subscription service and publish the print versions in 100-page digests at $10. This way the print version has more value for money and they're able to launch digital content with a faster pace that's also perfect for binge reading.
No more 20 page floppies. 4 bucks for 20 pages of an unfinished story isn't appealing to the general audience.

One of the things I think they need to start doing is slowly phasing out the mainstream books. By having them go all digital and saving print for things like Black Label and stand alone projects. They would still publish trades and collections but if you want the 22 page story right now, you'd have to get it digitally. If Diamond doesn't bounce back from this, they may not have a choice. Maybe make the end goal a line of kids books and some specialty projects. But for all intents and purposes, I would say their mainstream continuity might not be salvageable at this point.

[Kevin Street]

That should not be a problem as according to this article on the details https://www.newsarama.com/49873-insi...-involved.html

So Diamond should have to take new orders for DC's books for whenever they do restart operations.

I believe DC will also be honoring their previously announced returnability for April-June, if Diamond doesn't for some reason.

And if Diamond does manage to begin in May wouldn't be surprised if DC giving an incentive by breaking their monopoly and providing them competition to get the books out has something to do with it.

Hmm, so DC has cancelled all the orders originally scheduled for April 1-15, and is telling retailers to resubmit using Diamond(?), Lunar, or UCS. The local shop owner definitely didn't know about that, and if I read about it I must have forgot because it's news to me too. That puts a wrinkle in things.

DC may end up getting the opposite of what they're intending here, and have the April books end up as "lost." Existing and published comics but with almost no stores ordering them through the alternate distributors.

[Ascended]

I for one think DC should start publishing their ongoings in a seasonal model. Publish an entire arc by the same creative team at a time. Have the digital chapters available each week as part of a new digital subscription service and publish the print versions in 100-page digests at $10. This way the print version has more value for money and they're able to launch digital content with a faster pace that's also perfect for binge reading.
No more 20 page floppies. 4 bucks for 20 pages of an unfinished story isn't appealing to the general audience.

If it were me, and I'd have to do a lot more research and have a lot more data to make any kind of legit proposal, but right now knowing what I know I'd suggest something along similar lines.

I'd try a seasonal approach similar to tv's structure; Action Comics, season 1 (as an example). Each season would have a single creative team and set number of issues, with a mid-season break to help ensure no one falls behind on production as well as a break between seasons.

I'd have weekly digital releases with as much content as about 5 floppy pages, priced at about $1. Since the direct market isn't dead yet, we'll pool 4 digital issues into a single floppy and sell that to the LCS every month (same as DC did with their old digital first titles). Each season would be collected in two trades; season 1 part 1 and season 1 part 2. We'd include some subscription options and other ways to access the digital books of course as well.

The serialized nature of the narrative provides a big hurdle; how do you keep the story going while making it accessible for the potential readers who aren't already hooked? The answer to that is a thesis level essay but the TL;DR is to take characters roughly where they are now (Superman married, Dick as Nightwing, etc) and treat this as the baseline status quo and starting point. The continuity from before is a non-factor beyond the specific stories that got us to the "seasonal" starting point (Clark died, married Lois, had a kid, etc). Those "foundation" stories are listed in the books when this initiative launches so new readers know where to look if they're interested in the back story, but aren't really important to the current story. Nothing reverts to a state before this point (Superman never becomes single again, Dick is never de-aged, etc; NO REBOOTS!). Content is designed to be all-ages; not kid-focused like the Ink/Zoom stuff, not aimed at adults like Black Label, but accessible for anyone....like Into the Spider-Verse.

Comics—as in ongoing, serialised narrative—are well and fine. Webcomics are the new syndicated daily strips. Mangas and Scholastic titles prove that there is a large untapped market.

Should've been more precise in my wording, I meant the direct market. Thought that was clear, my bad.

[Dr. Ellingham]

You have excellent insight as always, but I'm not sold on this bit. I'm not sure if anyone here is expecting comic books to be a dominant force again, or even necessarily a considerable one. I certainly am not, at least. But I'd like comics to be on solid ground where they make enough profit to be worth making for their own sake, and not just to maintain copyright/trademarks or to serve as cheap storyboards for potential adaptations.

Thank you, and I think we basically agree that the industry is shrinking, and things will change. Where we probably differ is our estimation of their ability to sustain. Focusing just on publishing revenue, DC probably makes 2M per month from the direct market - my conservative thumbnail math:

65 books a month
Avg. of 20000 copies sold
Monthly volume = 1.3M books
Avg. price point of $4, they keep $2 per
Revenue: 1.3M books x $2 = 2.1M revenue per month
Annual: 25M from the Direct Market

I assume the DM is 55-60% of their publishing, so factoring other distribution, international, digital and their trade and archive businesses, they're likely pulling in 45-50M from publishing.

But the 25-30 million is the piece that is slowly "dying". Their finance and sales teams likely modeled the trendline for this decline a decade ago, and have been tracking it since. Revenue/profit forecasting and analysis is a big part of my job as well, and every business case has at least a 5-year projection. So they know where they'll be in 5 years, 10 years from now - which is why they are actively pursuing other distribution methods.

But I think given the amount of money at risk - $25M, they know they can replace some / most of it with other revenue streams. And then there's licensing, which is ever-growing, nicely covering for the reduced revenue and profitability (assuming) of print.

Most likely, at some point DC scales back output to their top 20-30 monthly books - Batman, Superman, JLA, etc. Those books will make money with trades, digital and a few physical copies for the Wal-Marts and surviving big comic shops. And everything beyond that is the same.

The IP's that DC owns will, of course, survive. There's no question of that at all. But the ongoing, serialized narrative? That's in some real dire straights, and if it doesn't branch out and find new ways to do things, it won't survive.

Yes, I suspect the shared universe / serialized narrative that we saw from the 1960s - 2010s is going to shrink dramatically. Not down to nothing, but eventually I think their model will be more isolated "seasons" of books focused on the bigger characters, with less "history" and shared storytelling.

Though I thought they'd be at that stage by 2020, but it's possible that the revenue from the monthly publishing is still there, so they're still milking the cow until it dries up.

[Ascended]

Thank you, and I think we basically agree that the industry is shrinking, and things will change. Where we probably differ is our estimation of their ability to sustain. Focusing just on publishing revenue, DC probably makes 2M per month from the direct market - my conservative thumbnail math:

Oh yeah, we're largely on the same page. And your math seems legit. Not that I have a clue how DC's finances work but as a rough ballpark it's probably not too far off. It matches my own estimates and guesswork at least.

So they know where they'll be in 5 years, 10 years from now - which is why they are actively pursuing other distribution methods.

Oh, absolutely. As much as I've questioned some of DC's choices there's no doubt in my mind that they know where things are going far better than I do. I'm just armchair quarterbacking. But I do think the writing here was on the wall years ago, and the push into new distribution models came much later than it should have. I do tend to be maybe a little....reactionary....to market shifts, because I'd rather be riding the crest of the wave than trying to catch up (that whole "you can be first or best" thing, and we know Marvel stomps DC's sales so they can't be "best"), but DC must've known what the direct market would do in the long-term even when it was first implemented, and it boggles my mind that, apparently, virtually nothing was done to counteract the eventual negative impact until fairly recently.

Most likely, at some point DC scales back output to their top 20-30 monthly books - Batman, Superman, JLA, etc. Those books will make money with trades, digital and a few physical copies for the Wal-Marts and surviving big comic shops. And everything beyond that is the same.

That sounds right. As for the bold bit there, I actually think DC will continue to be increasingly profitable beyond the direct market, I don't think we've hit the ceiling on stuff like the bookstore OGN's, digital, or larger media adaptations yet. And as those things increase it'll help offset the loss of revenue from the shrinking direct market. It's not DC I'm worried about, it's the ongoing serialized narrative that is exclusive to the LCS and direct market.

eventually I think their model will be more isolated "seasons" of books focused on the bigger characters, with less "history" and shared storytelling.

Much like what myself and others have suggested. Man, what I wouldn't give for a in-depth Q&A with Harras and Lee and Didio (even if he's gone). I'm sure they're all under NDA's and couldn't reveal much but I've always wanted a closer look at the business side of DC. First and foremost I want a look at their marketing. Because I'm confident I can do better.

Though I thought they'd be at that stage by 2020, but it's possible that the revenue from the monthly publishing is still there, so they're still milking the cow until it dries up.

Well, the New52 *did* put a lot of wind back in the direct market's sails. The increase only lasted a few years (and I think proved that this type of stunt provides diminishing returns) but that may have been enough to hold off a larger collapse. And they'll certainly ride the direct market into the ground. Why wouldn't they? That's where the bulk of their fanbase is and remains their primary source of (publishing) revenue. We can see them looking for alternative markets to enter, to prepare them for the direct market's crash, but right now that's still most of their cash flow and I've never known a business to give up on a penny it didn't have to.