Take the Wuhan Challenge

[Shai-Hulud]

The Plot Gods offer to transport you into the quarantined city of Wuhan. There you must stay for one month. If you survive, you will be awarded $10 million, tax-free and legal.

* You get legal papers and a passport attesting that you entered the country legally, with all required permits and permissions. So no problems with the Chinese government or security services on that account. If any problems surface, you have a high-ranking contact in the Communist Party who considers you a friend and may intervene successfully on your behalf.

* You gain complete fluency in Mandarin and Cantonese, including the most important dialects.

* You get one month of free food, canned and freeze-dried, and water filters that are effective on all pollutants and microbial agents. These filters cover all faucets, the bathtub and shower nozzles, and even the water that refills the toilet bowl.

* You get a studio apartment, furnished to your taste, internet hookup, and a library of interesting Chinese books.

* The equivalent of $20,000 cash in Chinese currency, with legit financial records proving the money is yours.

* Everyone in your apartment building considers you a friend and trustworthy person.

* If you are still alive at the end of one month, the Plot Gods will transport you home. This also includes if you become infected during that time, so no free cures. You get to keep the apartment, the passport, all legal papers, and your fluency in Chinese. Oh, and your high-ranking contact. Friends for life!

Who takes the challenge?

[big_adventure]

Why wouldn't you? This virus isn't vastly worse than the flu. If you are healthy, take care of yourself, and have enough money to afford clean water and meds, this isn't even dangerous. Plus, you have given everything needed to ensure that you don't need to leave the house, and this virus isn't airborne.

I would do it for, say, 10K, much less 10 million - and that mostly because I'm not desperate for money and living in a building in the city of Wuhan would be pretty boring and inconvenient.

[Shai-Hulud]

This virus isn't vastly worse than the flu.

Gotta counter-signal you on that one.

The Lancet: Coronavirus Hits 15% Fatality-Rate:

The percentage of people that contract the Wuhan Corona virus and succumb to it has leaped to 15%, and the infection rate among those exposed is 83%.

These rates are virtually unheard of in the world of microbiology and infectious disease transmission.

Out of every one hundred people exposed to the Corona virus, eighty-three will become infected, and will transmit the virus to others.

If the infection rate stands at 83%, it will be impossible to contain.

For every hundred exposed, roughly twelve will succumb to the virus.

A large number of cases will outbreak in China within the next week, and the next two weeks will be a crucial period.

That said, you're correct, you've got everything you need to hole-up for a month, so it's not like you're walking the streets or anything.

[Sharpandpointies]

Gotta counter-signal you on that one.

The Lancet: Coronavirus Hits 15% Fatality-Rate:

Our habits once again come back to bite us on the ass.

[Nik Hasta]

I gotta say I'm not super on board with the idea of doing a thread about an ongoing real world epidemic. Feels a tad ghoulish to me.

[Sol_M]

Yeah, considering the mortality rate and quarantine, this epidemic is clearly no joking matter. I don't personally have a problem with it, but I can see how this can make people uncomfortable.

With that said, addressing the OP itself, it seems like there are no actual downsides to this apart from the rather low chance of contracting the virus (unlikely, with the month long supplies). Just close yourself off for a month and you're good.

OK, no, there is a downside. I don't think I can really explain away a month long absence from work. "I was hiding in my apartment in a different country to escape the coronavirus" doesn't work when you're hiding in Wuhan. Not that it's likely to matter with the amount of tax free money offered.

Unfortunately, for most people in affected areas, closing themselves off till the matter is resolved is not an option. People need to leave their homes to work, among other things.

[Shai-Hulud]

Yeah, considering the mortality rate and quarantine, this epidemic is clearly no joking matter.

These pandemics are going to be an increasing aspect of our reality, so I figured a serious thought experiment along those lines shouldn't be out of bounds.

Call me jaded and bleak, if you will, I think about this stuff.

I know it's comics board, but we also do hypothetical, ethical conundrums.

OK, no, there is a downside. I don't think I can really explain away a month long absence from work. "I was hiding in my apartment in a different country to escape the coronavirus" doesn't work when you're hiding in Wuhan.

You have internet hookup. You can email folks to explain your absence, make bill-pays electronically, and so forth.

[Sol_M]

These pandemics are going to be an increasing aspect of our reality, so I figured a serious thought experiment along those lines shouldn't be out of bounds.

Pandemics are much less damaging than they used to be throughout human history, due to vastly improved knowledge of hygiene and medicine. Not sure what you mean by "increasing aspect of our reality", with that in mind.

Also, what is this thought experiment supposed to demonstrate or establish? Genuinely curious.

You have internet hookup. You can email folks to explain your absence, make bill-pays electronically, and so forth.

I would still basically have to lie, which is...not great.

[Shai-Hulud]

Pandemics are much less damaging than they used to be throughout human history, due to vastly improved knowledge of hygiene and medicine. Not sure what you mean by "increasing aspect of our reality", with that in mind.

Also, what is this thought experiment supposed to demonstrate or establish? Genuinely curious.

The more you're dependent upon the system, the more you need money to get by, and it's the system that's producing overcrowding, mass-migration, economic interdependence, pollution, and a host of other issues, including pandemic-related issues.

The whole globe is interdependent and interconnected now, so yeah, pandemics can potentially be much more damaging. The plague in the old Roman Empire was less recoverable than in the Middle Ages.

This vid is enlightening. I don't know if I believe "good hygiene" is enough anymore. We'll see.



Ideally, I wonder if a large portion of a population should perhaps be homesteaders, largely self-sufficient within their communities. Money perhaps becomes less important if you have such a situation?

That's also my own answer by the way. Do my month in Wuhan, hopefully survive, purchase a bug-out place in the boonies, and wait out The Big Collapse. Maybe you still believe in a Star Trek/Jetsons future? For myself, I think we've had it.

Anyway, been thinking about these things for the past few days.

[Sol_M]

The more you're dependent upon the system, the more you need money to get by, and it's the system that's producing overcrowding, mass-migration, economic interdependence, pollution, and a host of other issues, including pandemic-related issues.

The whole globe is interdependent and interconnected now, so yeah, pandemics can potentially be much more damaging. The plague in the old Roman Empire was less recoverable than in the Middle Ages.

This vid is enlightening. I don't know if I believe "good hygiene" is enough anymore. We'll see.

All that is very true, but they don't have the same weight-age as increased knowledge, information transmition, and prevention strategies against pandemics. I have no idea how you can look at the horrors of transmittable diseases throughout history and say that it's anywhere near as bad now.

Old people still speak of times when you'd have people dying in every other house in afflicted neighbourhoods, and bodies were carried through the streets. It's quite ridiculous how far we've come since then.

Not to make light of the present scenario in Wuhan at all, but it really doesn't seem comparable to me, let alone the implication that it's worse now.

Naturally, pandemics might still occur in the future that modern infrastructure won't be equipped to deal with, but they would probably still probably result in less deaths than there would have been without said infrastructure.

Ideally, I wonder if a large portion of a population should perhaps be homesteaders, largely self-sufficient within their communities. Money perhaps becomes less important if you have such a situation?

It's quite difficult to have self sufficient communities with access to all the benefits enjoyed by people today, and it's compounded by the relative poverty plaguing most people.

That's also my own answer by the way. Do my month in Wuhan, hopefully survive, purchase a bug-out place in the boonies, and wait out The Big Collapse. Maybe you still believe in a Star Trek/Jetsons future? For myself, I think we've had it.

Anyway, been thinking about these things for the past few days.

I don't really have enough knowledge to comment on what the future holds, no. But yes, accepting the offer in this scenario has not much in the way of downsides, though this situation doesn't apply to a vast majority of real people that are inconvenienced, hurt, or otherwise put in danger by the virus.

[big_adventure]

Gotta counter-signal you on that one.

The Lancet: Coronavirus Hits 15% Fatality-Rate:





That said, you're correct, you've got everything you need to hole-up for a month, so it's not like you're walking the streets or anything.

Too bad this is demonstrably false.

Based on the reported case numbers and the death toll, the total is much less than 2%.

The issue is that there is surely a VAST under-reporting of total cases. But not of deaths.

And...

The death toll on reported cases in the city of Wuhan is 3.5%

The death toll in the province where we find Wuhan is 2% - but remember, this includes the 3.5% from Wuhan proper.

Outside of that province, you have a mortality rate of 0.1%. Which is lower than seasonal influenza.

And remember, all the reporting coming from China is suspect. Not on the death toll - dead bodies are dead bodies. But on reported cases, surely. Some unverified reports from Wuhan specifically and the province in general talk about hundreds of thousands of cases unreported.

The mortality rate seen outside of Wuhan and the province seems much more likely than the one from inside therefore.

But even further, your scenario again provides for literally zero chance for infection: it's not airborne, and you have provided clean food and water for the month. Literally no reason to leave the apartment means no chance at all for infection. You might get bored, but you, despite what my kids say occasionally, cannot die from that.

[Radical]

Based on the reported case numbers and the death toll, the total is much less than 2%.

2% of eight billion people is still one big-ass number.

[Radical]

Maybe you still believe in a Star Trek/Jetsons future?

Looking more like a The Happening/zombie apocalypse future every day to me.

[choptop]

Just wanted to point out new reports are saying it is airborne.

[choptop]

2% of eight billion people is still one big-ass number.

What is that like 80 mill people or something?