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  1. #1
    Mighty Member TheDarman's Avatar
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    Default So...Whatís Your Guess About When All These Marvel Movies ACTUALLY Launch

    As we know, COVID-19 has delayed virtually every Hollywood release over the next three to four months and delayed production on countless others. Marvel has not been invulnerable either. I know that a lot of how much these movies are effected is based on the timeline of how long it takes to get this virus relatively under control. But, since all we have is speculation, when do you think these new MCU shows and movies, as well as the MCU-adjacent Sony stuff, actually comes out?

    Hereís my guess, for what it is worth:

    One of the optimistic scenarios is that we peak (hopefully with a relatively low peak) towards the end of April and that we experience a come down of cases and an easing of social distancing after May. The hope is that after a month of easing out of social distancing, we could see movie theaters get back to relative strength. So, based on this (because Iím an eternal optimist), I think the new slate will look like this:

    Black Widow will launch on any one of a number of datesóJuly 3rd (booting Free Guy), July 24th (booting Jungle Cruise), July 30th (taking the day vacated by Morbius, and likely what its original release date was prior to the James Gunn stuff), or September 7th. I left out August, because Warner Bros. has claimed pretty much all of August by placing Wonder Woman 1984 right in the middle of it and Iíd guess both studios would like to keep a distance of two weeks between films.

    After that, I do think we have Falcon and the Winter Soldier, but I think it launches sometime in late September as a result of production delays (which seem to be relatively minimal). This was a show that I think was originally supposed to come out in August sometime so this would make sense for an approximate two month delay if production gets back up in June (as expected in this optimistic scenario).

    Given principal photography of Venom 2 has been completed and Deadline says the film is still on track for its October release, I think an optimistic scenario still sees it making that date. It will be the only Sony/Marvel release of the year given Morbiusí postponement to 2021.

    Under this scenario, I donít think we would see a delay in The Eternals. Principal photography has concluded and reshoots might be able to happen as scheduled in the late summer so post-production can continue unaffected. So I still think this movie makes its November 6 release date as long as we are able to meet the expectations in this optimistic scenario.

    Unfortunately, WandaVision also had a production delay. If it picks back up in June, it would likely experience a similar delay to Falcon and the Winter Soldier. Given what we heard about its release likely being in December, it seems likely we are going to see this one towards the end of January of 2021. Which leads us to the next Disney+ show...

    Lokiís production was also delayed. However, it seems Loki was supposed to release at the end of WandaVision anyhow. I suspect that will continue to be the circumstances around its release and it will release relatively close to WandaVisionís finale in early March.

    Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings is yet another film that got delayed in production. As a result, it looks like its initial February release will have to be postponed. I think there are two likely dates for it. One is where Morbius currently sits on March 19, 2021, assuming that the film is still tracking relatively well despite its delay. Though, it could end up taking the first weekend of April of 2021, releasing April 2nd. This would put it three weeks from Fast 9 and two weeks from Morbius. Of course, should Shang-Chi be forced to move...

    I think Morbius moves up again to February 12, 2021, given that it will be a finished product ready to go out the door. It is always beneficial to put it on a long weekend and I expect Sony to capitalize on it should Shang-Chi (I think it is more a matter of when than if) move.

    Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, as of right now, is on track to begin principal photography in June with pre-production being done remotely. Should this optimistic prediction hold, I would anticipate that Doctor Strange will be able to just make its May 1, 2021 release. However, should it suffer even a bit from a delay, we could be looking at a long-term move.

    Spider-Man 3 is said to start filming in July. Again, this would be right on track for release in the optimistic case. However, I think Spider-Man 3 is in a unique position in that most of its competitors around it will likely have to delay. The Batman had its production delayed and it is now an open question whether or not it will hit its June 25, 2021 release. Mission Impossible 7 had to suspend production earlier than others because they were filming in Italy, putting its July 23, 2021 release in jeopardy. And Indiana Jones 5 canít catch a break and likely canít start production on time, making its July 9th release questionable. If I had to guess, I would guess Spider-Man 3 at least moves up to July 9th, if not closer to the 4th of July and enjoy having the month relatively to itself. There is no way Sony doesnít move heaven and earth to get this movie out in 2021 thoughóone way or another.

    Meanwhile, it looks like all future films in development stages are likely going to be able to hit their respective release dates barring shenagains that have other releases be pushed into their dates. Thor: Love and Thunder isnít scheduled to begin principal photography until late summer or autumn and that remains the same for many of the other Disney+ shows. So I assume that, in this optimistic scenario, things remain relatively the same, with a few things shifting.
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  2. #2
    Astonishing Member AndrewCrossett's Avatar
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    While I think theaters will get back up to strength eventually, I don't know as it will happen until a vaccine is out there and working. Unless we get lucky and one of these drugs they're testing turns out to be a reliable cure. Sitting in a theater for 3 hours shoulder to shoulder with coughing, sneezing strangers might be a hard sell even if we have a soft re-opening or two between now and then.

    I think 2021 will be the biggest year for blockbuster movies we've ever seen. If the studios are smart they will get together and make a promotion out of it.
    Make America Good Again.

  3. #3
    Loony Scott Taylor's Avatar
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    Sitting in a theatre with a bunch of coughing strangers is going to be pretty intolerable for a while to come. I'm wondering if theatre will be an even more boutique experience now, with seats farther apart and higher ticket prices, after this is all over.
    Every day is a gift, not a given right.

  4. #4
    Astonishing Member Starter Set's Avatar
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    As soon as Disney has bought the corona virus, made a vaccin and sold it to us for 700 bucks a pop then, only then Mickey is going to allow us the privilege to enjoy the entertainment that in his wisdom he has created for us.

    And we all shall be thankful.

  5. #5
    Mighty Member TheDarman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AndrewCrossett View Post
    While I think theaters will get back up to strength eventually, I don't know as it will happen until a vaccine is out there and working. Unless we get lucky and one of these drugs they're testing turns out to be a reliable cure. Sitting in a theater for 3 hours shoulder to shoulder with coughing, sneezing strangers might be a hard sell even if we have a soft re-opening or two between now and then.

    I think 2021 will be the biggest year for blockbuster movies we've ever seen. If the studios are smart they will get together and make a promotion out of it.
    Obviously a lot of this rests on our response, but I think if we are good at keeping a testing apparatus in place, ensuring paid sick leave is guaranteed for the disease, and treatment is available in sufficient quantity (all of which are not currently taking place at sufficient levels) people will feel comfortable engaging with the public and doing “normal” things again. I think that can happen as early as July. Plus, a great number of films have moved out. So folks that might sit it out this season might not have a big impact on movies that do open as they will have less competition since studios have been cautious about gearing up marketing campaigns for films if they can’t be assured of opening in their dates. I think movies removed from the schedule with largely complete marketing campaigns can be expected to open in that window from July to September.
    With Great Power, Comes Great Responsibility

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  6. #6
    Astonishing Member AndrewCrossett's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheDarman View Post
    Obviously a lot of this rests on our response, but I think if we are good at keeping a testing apparatus in place, ensuring paid sick leave is guaranteed for the disease, and treatment is available in sufficient quantity (all of which are not currently taking place at sufficient levels) people will feel comfortable engaging with the public and doing “normal” things again. I think that can happen as early as July.
    I think a lot of stuff could be open again by summer... regular stores, people back in their offices, etc. But crowded movie theaters might be a step too far while Captain Trips is still a threat.
    Make America Good Again.

  7. #7
    the devil's reject choptop's Avatar
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    6 months to 3 years is what I've been told.

  8. #8
    Mighty Member TheDarman's Avatar
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    While it probably isn’t the best time to be getting a poll of people’s opinions (given we haven’t even peaked yet in most countries and certainly not the U.S.), it looks like consumers will likely be cautious for a number of months even after the CDC indicates that it is safe to return to daily life.

    So...I’m updating my guess to Black Widow launching in the September window, likely two to three months after the CDC eases its social distancing guidelines and theaters reopen. Productions, meanwhile, will likely resume earlier as other workplaces get back to normal in the post-June window. While I would assume that people are likely not going to be as cautious as they are stating here, it is safe to assume that this trend will persist in some form past the easing of government restrictions.
    With Great Power, Comes Great Responsibility

    Power corrupts. Absolute power corrupts absolutely.

  9. #9
    Mighty Member TheDarman's Avatar
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    So, looks like the MCU release schedule has just moved back a release slot up through Black Panther II. Thor: Love and Thunder bumped an untitled release which was probably going to be a third Ant-Man movie. Given that Disney is probably more keen to put out Blade and Deadpool films, I’d imagine the hardest hit film from these quarterly shifts is gonna be Ant-Man 3. Noticeably absent from these moves is Spider-Man 3. This is, of course, because Sony controls the distribution of the film. I am curious to see if Sony tries to press on to the July 16th release. It could also take the spot recently vacated by Indiana Jones 5 on July 9th, but that depends on whether or not we see a production delay for the film, which could still be in the cards (but it was looking at a July start date so they have a little time to determine whether or not production needs to shift).
    Last edited by TheDarman; 04-03-2020 at 12:16 PM. Reason: SOURCE: https://deadline.com/2020/04/black-widow-mulan-artemis-fowl-marvel-movies-release-date-changes-box-office-coronavirus
    With Great Power, Comes Great Responsibility

    Power corrupts. Absolute power corrupts absolutely.

  10. #10
    Swollen Member GOLGO 13's Avatar
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    For me it's gonna come down to the specific movie & when I'm convinced that this thing is in the past. Gotta admit Godzilla VS KK is one I most want to see in the theater.

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