As we know, COVID-19 has delayed virtually every Hollywood release over the next three to four months and delayed production on countless others. Marvel has not been invulnerable either. I know that a lot of how much these movies are effected is based on the timeline of how long it takes to get this virus relatively under control. But, since all we have is speculation, when do you think these new MCU shows and movies, as well as the MCU-adjacent Sony stuff, actually comes out?
Here’s my guess, for what it is worth:
One of the optimistic scenarios is that we peak (hopefully with a relatively low peak) towards the end of April and that we experience a come down of cases and an easing of social distancing after May. The hope is that after a month of easing out of social distancing, we could see movie theaters get back to relative strength. So, based on this (because I’m an eternal optimist), I think the new slate will look like this:
Black Widow will launch on any one of a number of dates—July 3rd (booting Free Guy), July 24th (booting Jungle Cruise), July 30th (taking the day vacated by Morbius, and likely what its original release date was prior to the James Gunn stuff), or September 7th. I left out August, because Warner Bros. has claimed pretty much all of August by placing Wonder Woman 1984 right in the middle of it and I’d guess both studios would like to keep a distance of two weeks between films.
After that, I do think we have Falcon and the Winter Soldier, but I think it launches sometime in late September as a result of production delays (which seem to be relatively minimal). This was a show that I think was originally supposed to come out in August sometime so this would make sense for an approximate two month delay if production gets back up in June (as expected in this optimistic scenario).
Given principal photography of Venom 2 has been completed and Deadline says the film is still on track for its October release, I think an optimistic scenario still sees it making that date. It will be the only Sony/Marvel release of the year given Morbius’ postponement to 2021.
Under this scenario, I don’t think we would see a delay in The Eternals. Principal photography has concluded and reshoots might be able to happen as scheduled in the late summer so post-production can continue unaffected. So I still think this movie makes its November 6 release date as long as we are able to meet the expectations in this optimistic scenario.
Unfortunately, WandaVision also had a production delay. If it picks back up in June, it would likely experience a similar delay to Falcon and the Winter Soldier. Given what we heard about its release likely being in December, it seems likely we are going to see this one towards the end of January of 2021. Which leads us to the next Disney+ show...
Loki’s production was also delayed. However, it seems Loki was supposed to release at the end of WandaVision anyhow. I suspect that will continue to be the circumstances around its release and it will release relatively close to WandaVision’s finale in early March.
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings is yet another film that got delayed in production. As a result, it looks like its initial February release will have to be postponed. I think there are two likely dates for it. One is where Morbius currently sits on March 19, 2021, assuming that the film is still tracking relatively well despite its delay. Though, it could end up taking the first weekend of April of 2021, releasing April 2nd. This would put it three weeks from Fast 9 and two weeks from Morbius. Of course, should Shang-Chi be forced to move...
I think Morbius moves up again to February 12, 2021, given that it will be a finished product ready to go out the door. It is always beneficial to put it on a long weekend and I expect Sony to capitalize on it should Shang-Chi (I think it is more a matter of when than if) move.
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, as of right now, is on track to begin principal photography in June with pre-production being done remotely. Should this optimistic prediction hold, I would anticipate that Doctor Strange will be able to just make its May 1, 2021 release. However, should it suffer even a bit from a delay, we could be looking at a long-term move.
Spider-Man 3 is said to start filming in July. Again, this would be right on track for release in the optimistic case. However, I think Spider-Man 3 is in a unique position in that most of its competitors around it will likely have to delay. The Batman had its production delayed and it is now an open question whether or not it will hit its June 25, 2021 release. Mission Impossible 7 had to suspend production earlier than others because they were filming in Italy, putting its July 23, 2021 release in jeopardy. And Indiana Jones 5 can’t catch a break and likely can’t start production on time, making its July 9th release questionable. If I had to guess, I would guess Spider-Man 3 at least moves up to July 9th, if not closer to the 4th of July and enjoy having the month relatively to itself. There is no way Sony doesn’t move heaven and earth to get this movie out in 2021 though—one way or another.
Meanwhile, it looks like all future films in development stages are likely going to be able to hit their respective release dates barring shenagains that have other releases be pushed into their dates. Thor: Love and Thunder isn’t scheduled to begin principal photography until late summer or autumn and that remains the same for many of the other Disney+ shows. So I assume that, in this optimistic scenario, things remain relatively the same, with a few things shifting.