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  1. #13231
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    Quote Originally Posted by PaulBullion View Post
    I have yet to see any evidence those people exist. I do not know anybody more proud of their opinion than Trump supporters. The polls did not underestimate support for Trump supporting candidates in 2018 one bit.
    "shy Trump supporters" are a stupid, stupid myth that Trafalgar polls latched on to.
    Or more likely they exist but not in the quantities some believe and/or needed. That's also a possibility, right?

  2. #13232
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    Quote Originally Posted by Farealmer View Post
    Does anyone else find this suspicious? Has this model been mentioned before?
    The buses don't go where they live.
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  3. #13233
    Ultimate Member Kirby101's Avatar
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    It's amazing that 4 years after we learned that Hillary's emails was a Russian/GOP disinfo plot, people (including a few here), fall for this bullshit again.

    Hunter Biden story is Russian disinfo, dozens of former intel officials say
    There came a time when the Old Gods died! The Brave died with the Cunning! The Noble perished locked in battle with unleashed Evil! It was the last day for them! An ancient era was passing in fiery holocaust!

  4. #13234
    Extraordinary Member PaulBullion's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChangingStation View Post
    Or more likely they exist but not in the quantities some believe and/or needed. That's also a possibility, right?
    Or maybe the violent nature of Trump's fascist supporters makes Biden supporters "shy" towards pollsters?

    Or maybe the moon is made of cheese?
    "How does the Green Goblin have anything to do with Herpes?" - The Dying Detective

    Hillary was right!

  5. #13235
    Ultimate Member Kirby101's Avatar
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    Right now the polls are showing Biden by about 8 to 10 points with around 8 percent left between undecideds and third party. If all the undecideds voted for Trump, he would still be behind. And the undecideds seem to be breaking for Biden.
    There came a time when the Old Gods died! The Brave died with the Cunning! The Noble perished locked in battle with unleashed Evil! It was the last day for them! An ancient era was passing in fiery holocaust!

  6. #13236
    Sans Pants ChadH's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Celgress View Post
    We'll see. I think the polls are grossly underestimating Trump's support, here's why -

    1.) Frankly, many people are ashamed to admit they support him to pollsters. These are the so-called "shy Trump supporters".

    2.) Another segment of Trump supporters greatly distrust the "Media" so they won't talk to pollsters.

    3.) Another segment of Trump supporters are trolls who enjoying f'ing with pollsters so they claim they support Biden.

    4.) "Hunter's Laptop" Effect

    Edit - Once my model predicts this election correctly We plan on selling it to the highest bidder. I'm very excited as this will be the sixth election it has correctly prediction (once Trump wins).
    Remember to call a physician if it lasts more than four hours.
    Last edited by ChadH; 10-20-2020 at 10:52 AM.
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  7. #13237

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    On this date in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, as well as 2018, “Crazy/Stupid Republican of the Day posted profiles of the U.S. House Representative from South Carolina’s 4th Congressional District, Trey Gowdy, the U.S. House Representative from South Carolina’s 4th Congressional District, a would-be witchfinder general who obsessively looks for conspiracies being carried out by Democrats that never actually manifest, and complains about the media when they have the nerve to report when he's unable to find any wrongdoing. Gowdy was placed in charge of the Benghazi Select Committee in 2014, and in 2016, Gowdy's Benghazi committee finally ended not with the repeatedly promised bang, but a whimper. Before it was all over, he had to concede that all of the reports that concluded nothing could have been done to save the lives of the four Americans killed there could have been saved by any possible intervention, and he and the Republicans on that committee had to begrudgingly release the report to the press that concluded there was no culpability or wrongdoing by Hillary Clinton or the State Department..

    In addition to the Benghazi Committee/fiasco/waste of taxpayer money that Gowdy has been making himself famous for, he also tried hyping the IRS scandal, calling for Lois Lerner to be held in contempt of Congress for invoking her 5th amendment right to not testify against herself. It was the first time that Congress held someone in contempt for doing that since... wait for it... Joe McCarthy during the Red Scare hearings. Gowdy also expressed his desire to use torture not just against terrorists... but against IRS employees to root out all the crimes they committed, "like Jack Bauer on 24", and tried hyping outrage about the closing of the World War II Memorial during the 2013 Government Shutdown by claiming that special consideration was given to Occupy Wall Street protestors to stay in that park (Zuccotti Park was privately owned, not by the government). During the House Oversight Committee’s witch hunt against Planned Parenthood, Gowdy grilled the organization’s president, Cecile Richards, repeatedly interrupting and badgering her while attributing quotes she had made which she never had said. Rounding out Gowdy's resume is one of the most conservative voting records in Congress, and an hard policy in favor of Voter ID laws that disproportionately curb the ability of minorities to get registered to vote, which he feels "can't be racist" by his logic because sometimes, people in South Carolina elect minorities.

    That’s only the beginning of the bad news. While new House Oversight Chairman Jason Chaffetz abruptly resigned in 2017, it meant a field promotion for Trey Gowdy, who was given the field promotion to run the House Oversight Committee during the Trump administration. And guess who, in spite of the most blatantly corrupt White House since at least the Reagan administration, if not ever, is all thumbs and unable to find anything worth investigating? TREY F’N GOWDY. Yeah, with the Trump administration colluding with Russians, with the Trump business empire enriching itself off of its presidency, with practically every member of the Trump Cabinet of Horrors abusing private jets on taxpayer expense for personal trips, et cetera, et cetera, Trey Gowdy buried his head in the sand and pretend that everything is JUST FINE. After eight years of playing make believe with the Obama administration, a group of unqualified morons without moral compasses move into the White House, literally skip out on all their ethics training (and act like it), and Gowdy is an accessory to all the crap they’re pulling to the extent that he accuses the people who are the “leaks” informing the media of all these scandals of criminal wrongdoing, echoing Donald Trump himself. He spent the energy to cast doubt on the Steele Dossier even as the intelligence community keeps confirming that detail after detail in it is accurate. It would be sad if it wasn’t so predictable.

    Trey Gowdy announced his retirement from Congress in 2018, because while he had limitless energy to attack the previous administration over phantom scandals, playing defense for the corruption of the Trump administration was something that it only took a few months of him running the House Oversight Committee and trying to do nothing before he was exhausted and ready to bail. And he knew sure as hell he wasn’t going to be able to plug all the leaks in the dam like a little Dutch boy that were coming once Republicans were in the minority. Gowdy continues to putter around Washington, and his name occasionally comes up as someone who might be a lawyer to try and defend Donald Trump during impeachment. Because someone’s got to be stupid enough to try, and step in as all the previous attorneys he's hired keep getting pinched by the feds for committing crimes.

    On this date in 2019, “Crazy/Stupid Republican of the Day” profiled E. Ray Moore, who in 2014 was a candidate to be Lieutenant Governor of South Carolina. Moore’s political background comes from him working as a campaign staffer for several campaigns for Pat Robertson in the 1980s, before that Fundamentalist lunatic decided he was content to just manipulate our country’s Evangelicals through the 700 Club. Moore is noteworthy to CSGOPOTD for his obsession with the separation of church and state, which he would prefer didn’t exist. He is particually annoyed that children in public schools aren’t indoctrinated with what he judges to be the “correct” version of Christianity. He is currently serving as President of Frontline Ministries, Inc. and author of extremist books like Let My Children Go (with his wife, Gail) and The Promise of Jonadab: Building a Christian Family Legacy in a Time of Cultural Decline, as well as Executive Producer of the documentary IndoctriNation. Now, “IndoctriNation” is a bit of Evangelical propaganda that focuses on the allegedly destructive nature of the public school system, which Moore demonizes as the “main culprit” when it comes to why young adults leave the church. Public schools are like “playing Russian Roulette with your children’s souls,” he claims, channeling Bobby Boucher’s Mama from the film The Waterboy by declaring everything “THE DEBBIL!” No, we’re serious. Moore describes public schools as “godless and pagan by precept and design,” since they don’t allow for “God in the math class and in the science class as much as in the Bible class.” Instead of letting children attend public schools, Moore would prefer parents should do what the Bible demands of them: homeschool them or place them in Christian schools. We’re not overexaggerating here, in 2006, Moore submitted a resolution to the Southern Baptist Convention urging an exit strategy from the public school system, arguing that Christians should not be exposed to any knowledge that doesn’t fit with his theocratic views. This hatred of public education was the focus of Moore’s 2014 gubernatorial campaign, as he went on to declare that public schools were causing a “silent holocaust” in American churches because they dared to teaching evolution and homosexuality. And warning that current curriculums could turn students into anti-Christian “janissaries” that might grow up to be the next Hillary Clinton. Instead, Moore wanted South Carolina to replace public schools with an education system led by “churches, families, and private association”. Moore cited dubiously accurate studies that said “80 percent of Southern Baptists youths are leaving the church and abandoning the Christian faith, and we think all of this is pretty much attributable to government schooling.” (He either wrote, or paid someone to do that study, dollars to donuts.) In 2017, Moore began directing his prayers to God to protect Trump from the demonic “Deep State.” Mind you, he was vague as to what the Deep State was, but seemed to indicate it was some supernatural force that was not loyal to the Constitution but instead serves “principalities and powers,” “demonic and Satanic forces” and “fallen angels”. Much like Evangelical lunatics who think you can “pray the gay” away, he thought prayer would be an appropriate means to vanquish the deep state. Moore describes Trump as “a man in the government who is a friend of God’s in a unique way in modern American history,” and thinks of his election as a miracle. As Moore seems unlikely to ever reach office, we will set aside his profile at this time, and take a look at another wacky Republican today instead. (Current crazy/stupid scoreboard, is now 928-45, since this was established in July 2014.
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  8. #13238
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    What I think will happen:


    What I want to happen:


    If I am being honest, I just really want Texas to flip.
    "Always listen to the crazy scientist with a weird van or armful of blueprints and diagrams." -- Vibranium

  9. #13239
    Extraordinary Member Revolutionary_Jack's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PaulBullion View Post
    Biden had bigger leads before covid than after.
    Quote Originally Posted by BeastieRunner View Post
    Everyone forgets the economy was tanking before COVID.

    COVID just made it go down faster.

    IMHO, COVID gave Trump a life-line to turn around but instead he's using it to drown himself.
    There's truth to both sides. Trump was beatable certainly without COVID. Mostly because of how corrupt and mercurial he was (and is). Without COVID, the issues of Trump's incompetent and corruption would have been the biggest issue in the campaign. The tax returns (which would likely have been unveiled without COVID) would be the October surprise that sinks him (instead of being one of three surprises, the other two -- Woodward Tape and Rose Garden massacre -- being COVID-related).

    On the other hand, without COVID, the economy would be significantly better than it is now, and more importantly it would have felt better. Breaking down complex statistical comparison to prove that Trump just inherited Obama's economy and hadn't done much in the way of creating new jobs and so on, would be hard to sell as a visceral issue.

    So Trump had advantages, let's say, or as Allan Lichtman (the actual guy with the most successful model for election clairvoyance) puts it, he'd have a key to the White House.

  10. #13240
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    Quote Originally Posted by PaulBullion View Post
    Or maybe the violent nature of Trump's fascist supporters makes Biden supporters "shy" towards pollsters?

    Or maybe the moon is made of cheese?
    I find it interesting the guy says "FYI I gave up following politics, and I've never been happier", and "Unlike other people who frequently post in the thread to the point of obsession, it's an afterthought for me." is suddenly revealing he has some kind of mysterious project that predicts the election and he plans on selling it to the highest bidder. I find it more likely that since his last attempt to troll the forum ended with posts deleted and him banned he's now trying this magic model to get people riled up instead.

  11. #13241

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    Mykel Barthelemy
    Welcome to what is the 928th original profile here at “Crazy/Stupid Republican of the Day”, where we’ll be discussing Mykel Barthelemy, a 2020 Republican candidate for U.S. House of Representatives in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District. Yes, Barthelemy felt that she was the right person to flip the seat traditionally held by Republicans under folks like Newt Gingrich and Tom Price, after Karen Handel lost the seat to Democratic Congresswoman Lucy McBath in 2018. Her qualifications, though, leave much to be desired, because all they really are that she is a published author who wrote a book entitled, “Trump is Not a Racist! Here’s Why” (LOL, sure) and more importantly, during the GOP Primary debate, admitted that she doesn’t even live in the district she was running for.

    She is of course, yet another one of the Qanon supporters who ran for office in 2020 as a Republican including calls for users to “red pill” themselves. That’s not the only paranoid conspiracy she’s voiced support for, as she also believes in Ukarinium One, and has insinuated during the final build-up to the 2020 election that Donald Trump was deliberately infected with Covid-19 by his political enemies, and that Joe Biden cheated in the first debate by having some sort of ear piece as well as “something he was reading behind his eyelids” (?). Those are just the crazy-ass things she’s posted on Twitter in October 2020 alone. If you want to peruse further back into her Twitter, well… we wish you the best.

    Mykel Barthelemy finished a distant fourth out of five candidates in the GOP Primary in that race, with all of 4% of the vote. It seems unlikely that the electorate is going to swing in the direction of someone whose whole identity politically revolves around the argument that Trump isn’t racist.
    Last edited by worstblogever; 10-20-2020 at 11:17 AM.
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  12. #13242
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    Quote Originally Posted by Revolutionary_Jack View Post
    There's truth to both sides. Trump was beatable certainly without COVID. Mostly because of how corrupt and mercurial he was (and is). Without COVID, the issues of Trump's incompetent and corruption would have been the biggest issue in the campaign. The tax returns (which would likely have been unveiled without COVID) would be the October surprise that sinks him (instead of being one of three surprises, the other two -- Woodward Tape and Rose Garden massacre -- being COVID-related).

    On the other hand, without COVID, the economy would be significantly better than it is now, and more importantly it would have felt better. Breaking down complex statistical comparison to prove that Trump just inherited Obama's economy and hadn't done much in the way of creating new jobs and so on, would be hard to sell as a visceral issue.

    So Trump had advantages, let's say, or as Allan Lichtman (the actual guy with the most successful model for election clairvoyance) puts it, he'd have a key to the White House.
    The WH forecast for jobs and the economy going from FEB20 - JUNE20 was bad and needing Congressional intervention. And that's their forecast, not unbiased forecasts. Others predicted a modereate to low recession by APR20.

    Based on his OCT19 - JAN20 lack of intervention, I would say it's highly doubtful Trump gets the economy key. IF if it maintained his slow downward trend, at best the Trump economy is lower than where he started. Which is a FALSE on the Lichtman keys.

    But COVID-19 hit and those hypotheticals are moot.
    "Always listen to the crazy scientist with a weird van or armful of blueprints and diagrams." -- Vibranium

  13. #13243
    The Superior One Celgress's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Revolutionary_Jack View Post
    Glad that someone is still brazen and shameless about trafficking and profiting of human misery in 2020 and boasting about it publicly to boot.
    Hey, I only predict I didn't create the conditions that brought us here that's on Dubya & company. I highly doubt either Obama (on the good side) or Trump (on the bad side) would have become president if Dubya's cabala hadn't destroyed the body politic. People wanted radical change post-Dubya, and rightly so.

    Edit - As for boasting, if I'm smarter than the rest of the pundits (if my model again proves correct) I'm going to boast and profit happily. Like it or lump it, it's the American way.
    Last edited by Celgress; 10-20-2020 at 11:33 AM.
    "So you've come to the end now alive but dead inside."

  14. #13244
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    Quote Originally Posted by PaulBullion View Post
    I have yet to see any evidence those people exist. I do not know anybody more proud of their opinion than Trump supporters. The polls did not underestimate support for Trump supporting candidates in 2018 one bit.
    "shy Trump supporters" are a stupid, stupid myth that Trafalgar polls latched on to.
    There are no secret Trump supporters. Definitely not this election cycle.

    The average Trump supporter has been very vocal about supporting him since he won the election.

    If anything, there are more people that want to vote Biden but are shy to say it because it doesn't sound "cool".
    "Obviously not all conservatives are racists/bigots but all racists/bigots claim to be conservative"- Unknown

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  15. #13245
    Fighting Injustice on CBR SUPERECWFAN1's Avatar
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    As we see Trump has 1 speed and that 1 speed is to tell everyone how shitty the country is and only HE can save it. He did that in 2016 and many bought into that. What is wild is ...he's in charge currently and trying to sell the same message . That somehow only HE can save it , yet is there currently and hasn't shown he can.
    "The story so far: As usual, Ginger and I are engaged in our quest to find out what the hell is going on and save humanity from my nemesis, some bastard who is presumably responsible." - Sir Digby Chicken Caesar.

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