All purpose news and politics thread part VI: This Is Not The Time For Posing

[SUPERECWFAN1]

I was listening to some of the Amy Coney Barrett conformation earlier today while working. I found it pretty interesting that most of the Republicans who spoke went on and on about how the democrats have attacked Amy for being Catholic and how horrible she's been treated.

Meanwhile, instead of talking about religion, the Democrat mostly spoke about not wanting the ACA repealed.

That is their cover to push her through. Then act stunned when they dismantle ACA in Supreme Court costing 20+ million Americans healthcare in a Pandemic.

[JCAll]

That is their cover to push her through. Then act stunned when they dismantle ACA in Supreme Court costing 20+ million Americans healthcare in a Pandemic.

The ACA, Roe, and marriage equality are basically already on the chopping block. I wonder how many people will lose their rights before the Supreme Court starts to get real unpopular.

[InformationGeek]

Mitch McConnell is a freakin' ghoul. Just so completely unpleasant.

[The Cool Thatguy]

Mitch McConnell is a freakin' ghoul. Just so completely unpleasant.

What's it say? Can't see it

[InformationGeek]

What's it say? Can't see it

It's a video of him at his Senate debate... it's just awful.

[Revolutionary_Jack]

If Barrett gets confirmed, and if Dems take the WH, the Senate and the House...the Supreme Court is getting packed. No ifs, buts, ands.

I mean Biden and Harris and others are basically confirming it by not openly refuting it before election. Biden is basically putting court packing on the ballot. But there's no way the Dems can tolerate and allow this.

I say pack the SC -- the question is if the Dems should add 2 to substitute for the 2 seats stolen by the GOP. That would make the SC split 6-5, leaving the Dems to hope for Thomas to shuffle off either by quitting or the other way, to get the majority. Should they pack in 3, to make it an even split 6-6. Or get greedy and add in four to go 6-7. The latter I think won't happen...Biden might think 6-5 is the moderate solution, 6-6 would be a little risky. But either way, packing the court is slipped through the Overton Window and is on the table and some version of it might happen. The Dems might think to pack enough to threaten the SCOTUS to not wedge their way on partisan votes and issues, because John Roberts dedicated as he is to repealing the Voting Rights Act does actually care about the institution's credibility.

I honestly don't know why the Republicans are packing in Barrett, it's counter-productive in a big way. The republicans are gambling by driving the Dems to do something radical which would in turn become an issue for them in 2022 midterms to galvanize their base but if the Dems pack the court, and the Republicans pack back as it would be expected, then that basically finishes the SCOTUS, and it also favors the Dems because they can pass radical legislation without worrying about the court censuring their acts. Deconstructing the SCOTUS favors the Dems while maintaining it would favor the Republicans.

If I were McConnell I'd have been focused on convincing Clarence Thomas to step down and then nominating a younger African-American conservative judge on the court. That basically removes the oldest conservative judge from the court while cementing that the Republican judges will be reinforced. In exchange for that, I'd let RBG's seat to be filled by the winner of the election. That way the Dems might get their 5-4 status quo but the "liberal majority" can will be kicked down the road and the Dems won't have much of an urgency for court packing as they do now with Barrett. This is basically a major gamble by McConnell and the only way he can pay it off is if the Republicans get a senate majority which so far doesn't seem likely (though it seems likelier than for Trump to get the WH).

[JCAll]

If Barrett gets confirmed, and if Dems take the WH, the Senate and the House...the Supreme Court is getting packed. No ifs, buts, ands.

I mean Biden and Harris and others are basically confirming it by not openly refuting it before election. Biden is basically putting court packing on the ballot. But there's no way the Dems can tolerate and allow this.

I say pack the SC -- the question is if the Dems should add 2 to substitute for the 2 seats stolen by the GOP. That would make the SC split 6-5, leaving the Dems to hope for Thomas to shuffle off either by quitting or the other way, to get the majority. Should they pack in 3, to make it an even split 6-6. Or get greedy and add in four to go 6-7. The latter I think won't happen...Biden might think 6-5 is the moderate solution, 6-6 would be a little risky. But either way, packing the court is slipped through the Overton Window and is on the table and some version of it might happen. The Dems might think to pack enough to threaten the SCOTUS to not wedge their way on partisan votes and issues, because John Roberts dedicated as he is to repealing the Voting Rights Act does actually care about the institution's credibility.

I honestly don't know why the Republicans are packing in Barrett, it's counter-productive in a big way. The republicans are gambling by driving the Dems to do something radical which would in turn become an issue for them in 2022 midterms to galvanize their base but if the Dems pack the court, and the Republicans pack back as it would be expected, then that basically finishes the SCOTUS, and it also favors the Dems because they can pass radical legislation without worrying about the court censuring their acts. Deconstructing the SCOTUS favors the Dems while maintaining it would favor the Republicans.

If I were McConnell I'd have been focused on convincing Clarence Thomas to step down and then nominating a younger African-American conservative judge on the court. That basically removes the oldest conservative judge from the court while cementing that the Republican judges will be reinforced. In exchange for that, I'd let RBG's seat to be filled by the winner of the election. That way the Dems might get their 5-4 status quo but the "liberal majority" can will be kicked down the road and the Dems won't have much of an urgency for court packing as they do now with Barrett. This is basically a major gamble by McConnell and the only way he can pay it off is if the Republicans get a senate majority which so far doesn't seem likely (though it seems likelier than for Trump to get the WH).

I just can't imagine Biden has decided to pack the court. He's doing good by ignoring the question and turning the whole thing back in to focus on the GOP's own court packing shenanigans, plus leaving the question hanging there makes McConnell sweat which is always fun. But at the end of the day he just not a very radical guy though.

Still, if the GOP does abuse the court to stop democrats from governing or starts stripping people's rights with unpopular decisions, it's good to have the question hanging there. It helps to gauge public support, if a massive number of people demand it he can probably be convinced.

[AnakinFlair]

I honestly don't know why the Republicans are packing in Barrett, it's counter-productive in a big way. The republicans are gambling by driving the Dems to do something radical which would in turn become an issue for them in 2022 midterms to galvanize their base but if the Dems pack the court, and the Republicans pack back as it would be expected, then that basically finishes the SCOTUS, and it also favors the Dems because they can pass radical legislation without worrying about the court censuring their acts. Deconstructing the SCOTUS favors the Dems while maintaining it would favor the Republicans.

They are doing it because the Dear Leader wants a conservative judge on the court by the elections so he can try and contest the election results up to the Supreme Court and have an edge in getting the result he wants. Other than that, he wants her on the bench to kill the ACA, Roe vs Wade, and Marriage Equality, and even if he looses in November, he'll know that would happen with her on the court.

On Rachel Maddow tonight, she pointed out several letters published in a few different newspapers from groups dedicated to outlawing abortion that Barrett signed her name to. And at least one of those letters she hasn't disclosed to the Senate. But that won't matter at all, because the Republicans are going to force her through no matter what she did.

[Revolutionary_Jack]

I just can't imagine Biden has decided to pack the court. He's doing good by ignoring the question and turning the whole thing back in to focus on the GOP's own court packing shenanigans, plus leaving the question hanging there makes McConnell sweat which is always fun. But at the end of the day he just not a very radical guy though.

The idea that Biden can't move away from the center isn't true. When he was VP he oversaw the stimulus, he helped pass the ACA, and he came out for gay marriage publicly before Obama did, forcing POTUS to come forward and stake it. There are other examples but Biden isn't inflexible. Joe Manchin he ain't. Biden had to be senator and come to his own as senator in a period where US Politics as a whole went to the right, but even then Biden was never a Blue Dog Democrat. In fact he slammed the Reagan administration for its support of Apartheid South Africa.

Biden can be a chameleon and blend into the politics of the day, so if packing the court is popular, if the Dems take WH, Senate, House, and there's a 6-3 SCOTUS, then he will pack the courts.

Court-packing has a spectrum on its own and I expect Biden to stake a moderate-middle position there. The moderate position would be the Dems pack in 2 judges to make it 6-5. That embarasses and threatens the Republicans but it still leaves them with a slim majority on the POTUS with Clarence Thomas on notice that he's on deathwatch and the conservatives should start putting out the Clarence Thomas Workout videos and books. If the Dems do that, the Republicans might grit and whine but they could accept it, at least the mod. republicans as fair and just riposte to their obstructionism. Making it 6-6 that's a step above and it might create gridlock on the court but again that has the air of making the SCOTUS bipartisan and geared towards collaboration and again Thomas is on deathwatch. Going 6-7 (or more) is the radical step and the Republicans and others might feel the Dems are going beyond restitution and compensation for McConnell's craven norm-breaking to escalating to next level.

Still, if the GOP does abuse the court to stop democrats from governing or starts stripping people's rights with unpopular decisions, it's good to have the question hanging there. It helps to gauge public support, if a massive number of people demand it he can probably be convinced.

Polls repeatedly show that most Americans think the GOP should delay Barrett's nomination to January 2021.

[Tendrin]

It's a video of him at his Senate debate... it's just awful.

For those who can't see it: McGrath made a comment qabout hundreds of thousands of Americans dying in a pandemic and McConnel just ... starts ... laughing.

McGrath, a retired Marine combat pilot, was aggressive in blaming the senator for Congress’ inability to secure another round of federal relief for a pandemic-battered economy, calling it a “dereliction of duty.”

McConnell, who frequently chuckled or outright laughed at his opponent’s remarks, blamed congressional Democrats for the stalemated negotiations.

The misogyny involved here,, of course, is real.

[Mister Mets]

If Barrett gets confirmed, and if Dems take the WH, the Senate and the House...the Supreme Court is getting packed. No ifs, buts, ands.

I mean Biden and Harris and others are basically confirming it by not openly refuting it before election. Biden is basically putting court packing on the ballot. But there's no way the Dems can tolerate and allow this.

I say pack the SC -- the question is if the Dems should add 2 to substitute for the 2 seats stolen by the GOP. That would make the SC split 6-5, leaving the Dems to hope for Thomas to shuffle off either by quitting or the other way, to get the majority. Should they pack in 3, to make it an even split 6-6. Or get greedy and add in four to go 6-7. The latter I think won't happen...Biden might think 6-5 is the moderate solution, 6-6 would be a little risky. But either way, packing the court is slipped through the Overton Window and is on the table and some version of it might happen. The Dems might think to pack enough to threaten the SCOTUS to not wedge their way on partisan votes and issues, because John Roberts dedicated as he is to repealing the Voting Rights Act does actually care about the institution's credibility.

I honestly don't know why the Republicans are packing in Barrett, it's counter-productive in a big way. The republicans are gambling by driving the Dems to do something radical which would in turn become an issue for them in 2022 midterms to galvanize their base but if the Dems pack the court, and the Republicans pack back as it would be expected, then that basically finishes the SCOTUS, and it also favors the Dems because they can pass radical legislation without worrying about the court censuring their acts. Deconstructing the SCOTUS favors the Dems while maintaining it would favor the Republicans.

If I were McConnell I'd have been focused on convincing Clarence Thomas to step down and then nominating a younger African-American conservative judge on the court. That basically removes the oldest conservative judge from the court while cementing that the Republican judges will be reinforced. In exchange for that, I'd let RBG's seat to be filled by the winner of the election. That way the Dems might get their 5-4 status quo but the "liberal majority" can will be kicked down the road and the Dems won't have much of an urgency for court packing as they do now with Barrett. This is basically a major gamble by McConnell and the only way he can pay it off is if the Republicans get a senate majority which so far doesn't seem likely (though it seems likelier than for Trump to get the WH).

It makes a lot of sense for conservatives to push for Amy Coney Barrett for the court. Getting a Supreme Court justice is a big deal. Republicans believe that Democrats have the wrong judicial philosophy, viewing courts as a way to make law rather than enforce it.

If it works out, then it's a matter of seeing how Democrats will respond. If it doesn't go through, the argument for court packing is greatly diminished.

As you said, it's possible Republicans will keep the Senate. Republicans hold 53 Senate seats. The party will probably gain one in Alabama. At that point, they can afford to lose three and Mitch McConnell stays leader.

538 gives this outcome a 1 in 3 chance.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...recast/senate/

Even if Democrats take back the Senate, packing the court requires an overhaul of the Judiciary Act of 1869, which set the number of Supreme Court justices. It's not immediately clear that every Democratic Senator would be on the side of this. They'll need more votes if Joe Manchin, Jon Tester, Angus King and Kyrsten Sinema are hesitant, and by the nature of wave elections new Senators are likely to come from swing states. Will newly elected Senators from Colorado, Arizona, Kansas or Georgia want to start their Senate careers that way?

There are arguments for court packing, but it is can also be useful for negotiation, and that idea may help convince Republicans that an institutionalist like Joe Biden doesn't want to go through with it. They may very well be wrong on this, but there are many ways that a Biden administration can go.

[Revolutionary_Jack]

Republicans believe that Democrats have the wrong judicial philosophy, viewing courts as a way to make law rather than enforce it.

The Civil Rights Act and the Affordable Care Act were passed in congress and the provisions of both laws are in effect in danger of being overturned by conservative judges on the court. The Republicans are master liars and defining examples of projection. They accuse the democrats of doing what they in fact seek out to do.Republicans want to use the court to overturn the Civil Rights Act as well as Voting Right Acts. And as for using courts to make law, what exactly is "Citizens' United" if not the Conservative Judiciary doing exactly that.

If it doesn't go through, the argument for court packing is greatly diminished.

If Barrett doesn't get confirmed, yeah court packing is off the table.

Will newly elected Senators from Colorado, Arizona, Kansas or Georgia want to start their Senate careers that way?

That depends on Schumer and whether he can smooth-talk them. He's a major fundraiser and funds for many upcoming senators come from the party and from major fundraisers so it depends on whether they can force it.

Newly arrived senators even from swing states and so on can gamble doing something radical early provided they moderate later on.

There are arguments for court packing, but it is can also be useful for negotiation, and that idea may help convince Republicans that an institutionalist like Joe Biden doesn't want to go through with it. They may very well be wrong on this, but there are many ways that a Biden administration can go.

Again that's conditional on Barrett's confirmation. If she doesn't get confirmed, court-packing doesn't happen pure and simple. If she gets confirmed, and the dems get their majority, court packing is happening if only for the Democrats to survive as a formidable and viable party.

[JackDaw]

There are arguments for court packing, but it is can also be useful for negotiation, and that idea may help convince Republicans that an institutionalist like Joe Biden doesn't want to go through with it. They may very well be wrong on this, but there are many ways that a Biden administration can go.

Yes.

And personally I don’t believe Joe’s not ruling it out indicates which way he will go.

It’s just an astute political move. If he stated a firm view on it it would lose votes either way. If he says he will pack the court, it will be like dissuade some voters that usually vote Republican but are thinking of switching for this election from doing that. On other hand if he says he won’t pack the court he may lose some radical votes.

He’s not really got anything to gain by taking a position now, and may have something to lose.

I hope he doesn’t pack the court. And I hope he gets through some new legislation to stop the Republicans doing it again...it’s an appalling thing to do.

[WestPhillyPunisher]

I just can't imagine Biden has decided to pack the court. He's doing good by ignoring the question and turning the whole thing back in to focus on the GOP's own court packing shenanigans, plus leaving the question hanging there makes McConnell sweat which is always fun. But at the end of the day he just not a very radical guy though.

Still, if the GOP does abuse the court to stop democrats from governing or starts stripping people's rights with unpopular decisions, it's good to have the question hanging there. It helps to gauge public support, if a massive number of people demand it he can probably be convinced.

I agree that Biden is taking the right tack by not committing one way or the other to court stacking.

My own opinion to that topic is that Dems shouldn't expand SCOTUS, because that would resort in Republicans doing the same should they return the power, and vice versa. That, I fear, would lead to a black robed escalation with potentially no end in sight, especially since it stands to reason neither party would ever agree to any sort of cutoff on how many Justices can be on the bench.

[Username taken]

Yes.

And personally I don’t believe Joe’s not ruling it out indicates which way he will go.

It’s just an astute political move. If he stated a firm view on it it would lose votes either way. If he says he will pack the court, it will be like dissuade some voters that usually vote Republican but are thinking of switching for this election from doing that. On other hand if he says he won’t pack the court he may lose some radical votes.

He’s not really got anything to gain by taking a position now, and may have something to lose.

I hope he doesn’t pack the court. And I hope he gets through some new legislation to stop the Republicans doing it again...it’s an appalling thing to do.

The thing is, he literally might not have any choice.

What Republicans are doing right now is "taking off all the gloves" and the Democrats will have to respond. The current situation is extremely unusual because there's a real possibility of a GOP blowout in November and with states like Arizona and Texas turning "purple", the GOP knows it could be a very, very long time before they get another situation like this. i.e a Republican Senate and Presidency.

The GOP are going to completely move the Supreme Court towards the right meaning that longstanding "settled" laws are under legit threat. The only way the Dems can counter this is to pack the Supreme Court. If ACA, Gay Marriage and other "progressive" laws are in play and the Court continues to play solely by the right's playbook, then Biden might not have a choice but to the pack the court if he wants to be successful as President.