1. #34291
    Old school comic book fan WestPhillyPunisher's Avatar
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    Just got an alert that a federal judge ordered Texas to suspend their insanely restrictive abortion law.
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    Quote Originally Posted by WestPhillyPunisher View Post
    Just got an alert that a federal judge ordered Texas to suspend their insanely restrictive abortion law.
    Much as this makes me happy, I hate that judges have so much power.

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    Invincible Member Kirby101's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by shooshoomanjoe View Post
    Much as this makes me happy, I hate that judges have so much power.
    Judges are suppose to stop laws that violate the Constitution.
    They get that power from....the Constitution.
    Last edited by Kirby101; 10-06-2021 at 07:44 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by WestPhillyPunisher View Post
    Just got an alert that a federal judge ordered Texas to suspend their insanely restrictive abortion law.
    Will be appealed and go on until SC rules on it in one of these lawsuits

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    Mighty Member 4saken1's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mister Mets View Post
    If Trump were to run as an independent candidate, he would certainly top the libertarian and green party candidates.

    I wonder if it would increase the percentage of the Democratic vote, just because of what it says about Republicans, and because it would seem likely that Democrats would win comfortably.
    I agree. If Trump were to run as an Independent, it would split the Republican vote and guarantee a Democratic victory in 2024.

    Independent candidates have thrown a wrench into quite a few Elections, occasionally getting double digit percentages in the polls. Occasionally, they even manage to win a Congressional seat. When a particular Party peaked at 3% over 2 decades ago, hasn't come close to winning even a single Congressional seat, and struggles to get even 1% of the vote in every Election since, though, it's just delusional and pathetic to think that they will ever hold public office at any national level.
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    Invincible Member numberthirty's Avatar
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    Again, Sanders is the person out there making the "A child could understand this..." case for getting things done.

    God only know why it has to be on a guy that gets treated like a week old bagel to be the one actually doing so...

  8. #34298
    Mighty Member Zauriel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gray Lensman View Post
    And sadly, the results of 3rd party spoilers is often the opposite of what they wanted. Teddy Roosevelt ran because he thought Taft wasn't progressive enough, but the result of his vote splitting was to elect Woodrow Wilson, who is in the running for worst president of all time - not because of his failures, but because of the long term consequences of his successes. Wilson was a first class regressive on many issues and the end result of his 8 years was worse for what Teddy wanted then if Taft had been reelected instead.
    I agree with you on Woodrow Wilson. He enforced segregation in the federal workplace. He disenfranchised African-Americans. He may have resided in New Jersey but he was from the Deep South. He was born and grew up in Virginia which ironically just became a blue state in recent years.

    According to Wikipedia, Wilson won the presidency with a lower percentage of the popular vote than any candidate since Abraham Lincoln in 1860. Wilson became the first presidential candidate to receive over 400 electoral votes in a presidential election. Wilson took advantage of the Republican split, winning 40 states and a large majority of the electoral vote with just 41.8% of the popular vote, the lowest support for any President after 1860. Wilson was the first Democrat to win a presidential election since 1892 and one of just two Democratic presidents to serve between 1861 (the American Civil War) and 1932 (the onset of the Great Depression).

    Roosevelt finished second with 88 electoral votes and 27% of the popular vote. Taft carried 23% of the national vote and won two states, Vermont and Utah. He was the first Republican to lose the Northern states. Taft's result remains the worst performance for any incumbent president, both in terms of electoral votes (8) and share of popular votes (23.17%). His 8 electoral votes remain the fewest by a Republican or Democrat, matched by Alf Landon's 1936 campaign.

    So independent candidates were able to influence these historic 1912 election results,

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    Mighty Member Zauriel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mister Mets View Post
    If Trump were to run as an independent candidate, he would certainly top the libertarian and green party candidates.

    I wonder if it would increase the percentage of the Democratic vote, just because of what it says about Republicans, and because it would seem likely that Democrats would win comfortably.
    Don't worry. Trump will start his own party only If he lost in the Republican primaries and failed to win the nomination, like Theodore Roosevelt did. I hope that there will be better candidates in the 2024 Republican presidential election primaries.

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    Old school comic book fan WestPhillyPunisher's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zauriel View Post
    Don't worry. Trump will start his own party only If he lost in the Republican primaries and failed to win the nomination, like Theodore Roosevelt did. I hope that there will be better candidates in the 2024 Republican presidential election primaries.
    That will depend on if anyone has the cojones to face Trump. One thing's for certainly, chances are there might not be much, if anything in the way of moderates as the candidates will try to out-crazy one another since right wing voters appear to want another racist, xenophobic and crooked madman like Caramel Caligula.
    Last edited by WestPhillyPunisher; 10-07-2021 at 03:14 AM.
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  11. #34301
    Ultimate Member Gray Lensman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4saken1 View Post
    I agree. If Trump were to run as an Independent, it would split the Republican vote and guarantee a Democratic victory in 2024.

    Independent candidates have thrown a wrench into quite a few Elections, occasionally getting double digit percentages in the polls. Occasionally, they even manage to win a Congressional seat. When a particular Party peaked at 3% over 2 decades ago, hasn't come close to winning even a single Congressional seat, and struggles to get even 1% of the vote in every Election since, though, it's just delusional and pathetic to think that they will ever hold public office at any national level.
    Under the current system, 3rd parties are only really viable on the state, perhaps regional level. Even at their best historically, they have required one of the main 2 to be in it's death throes to perform. The Federalists collapsed after the War of 1812, when they came to be seen as treasonous, opening things up for the Whigs. The Whigs likewise collapsed when they were taken over by the Know-Nothings, opening a path for the Republican party.
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  12. #34302
    Mighty Member Zauriel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gray Lensman View Post
    Under the current system, 3rd parties are only really viable on the state, perhaps regional level. Even at their best historically, they have required one of the main 2 to be in it's death throes to perform. The Federalists collapsed after the War of 1812, when they came to be seen as treasonous, opening things up for the Whigs. The Whigs likewise collapsed when they were taken over by the Know-Nothings, opening a path for the Republican party.
    1968 was the last time any third party has won a single state in a presidential election. Due to the Democratic Party's support of civil rights, some of the Deep South states threw their support behind the segregationist George Wallace. The other Southern states voted for Tricky Dick Nixon. Only one Southern state named Texas voted for the Democratic candidate.

    No third party has ever won a single state in a presidential election after 1968. Third party's vote splitting might have no bearing on the election. Even if George Wallace stayed out of the election, the Deep Southern states would have voted for Nixon, who already secured victory in 32 states.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_U...ntial_election

  13. #34303
    Ultimate Member Mister Mets's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zauriel View Post
    Don't worry. Trump will start his own party only If he lost in the Republican primaries and failed to win the nomination, like Theodore Roosevelt did. I hope that there will be better candidates in the 2024 Republican presidential election primaries.
    One wrinkle if he formed a political party would be whether he would fill out all the necessary paperwork. That would affect his numbers and how he is seen.

    Quote Originally Posted by Zauriel View Post
    1968 was the last time any third party has won a single state in a presidential election. Due to the Democratic Party's support of civil rights, some of the Deep South states threw their support behind the segregationist George Wallace. The other Southern states voted for Tricky Dick Nixon. Only one Southern state named Texas voted for the Democratic candidate.

    No third party has ever won a single state in a presidential election after 1968. Third party's vote splitting might have no bearing on the election. Even if George Wallace stayed out of the election, the Deep Southern states would have voted for Nixon, who already secured victory in 32 states.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_U...ntial_election
    Third parties are a little bit different if there's a major regional split. The plan of the Dixiecrats had been to deny the major parties 270 electoral votes, and then play kingmaker.

    I don't think that approach works today, as we have so much national polarization.
    Last edited by Mister Mets; 10-07-2021 at 03:22 AM.
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    Mighty Member Zauriel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4saken1 View Post
    I agree. If Trump were to run as an Independent, it would split the Republican vote and guarantee a Democratic victory in 2024.
    .
    Democrats still need to worry about the Green Party or Andrew Yang's Forward Party splitting the Democratic vote. Jill Stein and Gary Johnson did steal away some of Hillary voters in 2016.


    Quote Originally Posted by Mister Mets View Post

    Third parties are a little bit different if there's a major regional split. The plan of the Dixiecrats had been to deny the major parties 270 electoral votes, and then play kingmaker.

    I don't think that approach works today, as we have so much national polarization.
    There was the 1824 United States presidential election in which no presidential candidate won over 50% of the electoral college votes. Andrew Jackson won the race but he did not achieve a majority of electoral votes. So the House of Representatives elected John Quincy Adams who only won the second place in the race. 1824 was one of the only two times that the House of Representatives decided who will be the president if no candidate won a majority in the electoral college.

    If Fuehrer Trump as an independent candidate and the Green Party candidate will take part in the race and manage to split the vote now, will they also be able to deny both major parties the 270 electoral votes, forcing the House to elect the president? Looks like Trump will want to play kingmaker.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1824_U...ntial_election
    Last edited by Zauriel; 10-07-2021 at 03:46 AM.

  15. #34305
    Mighty Member 4saken1's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zauriel View Post
    Democrats still need to worry about the Green Party or Andrew Yang's Forward Party splitting the Democratic vote. Jill Stein and Gary Johnson did steal away some of Hillary voters in 2016.
    Not nearly as much as Republicans need to worry about Trump. I'm betting that he'd draw way more than 1% away from them.
    Last edited by 4saken1; 10-07-2021 at 07:31 AM.
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