All purpose news and politics thread part VI: This Is Not The Time For Posing

[Robotman]

Those are two different things. Harris can be preferred amongst Democratic voters overall but also largely overlap with people who overwhelmingly are supporting Biden anyways (Biden won the plurality of Democratic voters). Warren can have less enthusiasm as Harris overall but she has far more in the places Biden and Harris lack and overall adds more to the ticket. There where the data suggests Warren has the advantage. She hits the places Biden and Harris can’t.


It’s like this, Biden won the primary. That would suggest amongst all the candidates he was the strongest overall. So theoretically if you had a clone of Biden he would be stronger independently than any other primary candidates. But if you put Biden and a clone of Biden on a Presidential ticket it actually has zero impact because it’s just a complete overlap.

There’s a lot of data to suggest that Warren was popular with left wing progressives (who may have chosen Bernie over her, but still found her more palatable to other options) and that she was also extremely popular with more modern suburban female Democrats who were not satisfied with Biden and were looking for alternatives.

So the data (which has been consistent) implies that Warren would smooth things over with progressives and moderates who weren’t all in on Biden but would be more amenable to having someone they did have affinity for on the ticket.

While wherever Harris is strong, it’s where Biden already is strong anyways, so it just becomes a wasted opportunity to strengthen a ticket.

And most polling data and anecdotes from sources in the Biden campaign say that is the case and he is very data driven by this.

I voted for Warren in the primaries but all I care about right now is beating Trump. Biden already has a big lead in the polls, so he just needs to make a safe “do no harm” VP pick. The last thing he needs to do is pick someone who will shake things up or give Trump ammo and a way to stir up fear in his base (basically their fuel). I do love Liz but I worry she would galvanize Trump as he’s been building her up as this socialist boogeyman for years. Not to mention the Pocahontas crap which he’s been using to brand her as a liar. I worry it will become another “but her emails” thing.

Balancing out the ticket shouldn’t be a concern at the moment. It may sound like a total cop-out of my liberal ideals but I just want Biden to choose someone who won’t mess up his chances in the swing states. If that’s another moderate Democrat than so be it. If they were tied or Biden was only up by a point or two and adding a more left leaning VP could help him win then I’d be all for it. Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are all that matters.

I would love to see Biden pick a VP who is a POC, but again beating Trump who is easily one of the biggest threats in the history of our democracy is the priority. Although some polls show that picking an African American VP would help.

Majority of Millennial, Gen Z, and female voters in key swing states say it’s important for Biden to pick a black woman as running mate

[Striderblack01]

Sure but you don't have to bold my comments, I can recall what I said, I don't need assistance.

There was a good investigative article a while back during the feud between Warren and Sanders. It touched on various issues, unfortunately I am getting ready to go out the door for vacation, so you'll have to wait until I return. (I don't want to spend my vacation time on CBR)

In the meantime if you do your own digging I'm sure you'll come to your own conclusion, which may be similar or different than mine, cheers.

More people than just us read these convos.

Have a good (and safe) vacay! Cheers!

[Tami]

“I’m Not a Racist” Says Republican Politician Who Repeatedly Uses N-word to Discuss Black Lives Matter

Tom Eckerle—a Republican road commissioner for Leelanau County, Michigan—is reportedly resigning after political pressure for repeatedly using the n-word, an anti-Black racist slur, to describe racial justice protestors.

Before a meeting of the road commission started last Tuesday, Eckerle was asked by a commission member why he wasn’t wearing a mask. He responded, “Well this whole thing is because of them (n-words) down in Detroit.”

When Bob Joyce, the commission’s chair, told Eckerle he couldn’t say that, Eckerle said, “I can say anything I want. Black Lives Matter has everything to do with taking the country away from us.”

Let’s be clear: the social aims listed on the Black Live Matters (BLM) website do not mention white people. According to its website, the BLM movement seeks to unite Black communities worldwide to oppose state-sanctioned violence and anti-Black racism while also create creating healing, empathetic communities free from prejudice.

[numberthirty]

I don't think so. If the Dems take power, undoing the absurd Trump tax cuts is a top priority.

Card check was a top priority.

While it would be great if they were going to actually do what they say, things like Card Check point to that them saying it is a "Top Priority..." isn't worth a whole lot.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

I voted for Warren in the primaries but all I care about right now is beating Trump. Biden already has a big lead in the polls, so he just needs to make a safe “do no harm” VP pick. The last thing he needs to do is pick someone who will shake things up or give Trump ammo and a way to stir up fear in his base (basically their fuel). I do love Liz but I worry she would galvanize Trump as he’s been building her up as this socialist boogeyman for years. Not to mention the Pocahontas crap which he’s been using to brand her as a liar. I worry it will become another “but her emails” thing.

Balancing out the ticket shouldn’t be a concern at the moment. It may sound like a total cop-out of my liberal ideals but I just want Biden to choose someone who won’t mess up his chances in the swing states. If that’s another moderate Democrat than so be it. If they were tied or Biden was only up by a point or two and adding a more left leaning VP could help him win then I’d be all for it. Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are all that matters.

I would love to see Biden pick a VP who is a POC, but again beating Trump who is easily one of the biggest threats in the history of our democracy is the priority. Although some polls show that picking an African American VP would help.

Majority of Millennial, Gen Z, and female voters in key swing states say it’s important for Biden to pick a black woman as running mate

Yeah I care about winning too, that’s why I’m going with the data that Warren consistently adds more strength to the the ticket and increases the likelihood that the most people vote for Trump. I don’t particularly want either because I prefer them as Senators if you must know and I think Warren is going to do more as a Senator and she’ll be a nothing VP who is just there to pacify people on the left and then her career will flame out. But the data is clear on who adds more to the ticket.

You can site polls of what people prefer, but there is no genetic ideal female African American VP candidate. There’s just real people who you have to pick strengths and flaws of all. If you want the pick of the people being considered that adds the most, we know who does. The safest non controversial pick of the bunch is probably Duckworth because she’s hardest to attack. Bass is who Congress generally supports so probably her next. Harris will get attacked by BLM supporters instantly and Warren will get attacked by Republicans for the Native American thing. Then Rice and Bass are kinda the least known and offensive but check box

[Mister Mets]

Yeah I care about winning too, that’s why I’m going with the data that Warren consistently adds more strength to the the ticket and increases the likelihood that the most people vote for Trump. I don’t particularly want either because I prefer them as Senators if you must know and I think Warren is going to do more as a Senator and she’ll be a nothing VP who is just there to pacify people on the left and then her career will flame out. But the data is clear on who adds more to the ticket.

You can site polls of what people prefer, but there is no genetic ideal female African American VP candidate. There’s just real people who you have to pick strengths and flaws of all. If you want the pick of the people being considered that adds the most, we know who does. The safest non controversial pick of the bunch is probably Duckworth because she’s hardest to attack. Bass is who Congress generally supports so probably her next. Harris will get attacked by BLM supporters instantly and Warren will get attacked by Republicans for the Native American thing. Then Rice and Bass are kinda the least known and offensive but check box

Biden did consistently outperform Warren in polls, so there does seem to be a relevant group of voters who would support Biden over Trump but not necessarily Warren.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...251.html#polls
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...247.html#polls

[SUPERECWFAN1]

Twitter Link

Uh, huh?

Well this is fine then. Because if this is allowed , Republicans will be paid back BIG TIME if a Democrat decides , ya know what...**** YOU ...EXECUTIVE ORDER ...TAXES ARE RAISED. Because he didn't want the bickering etc. I will fully enjoy watching Republicans explode .

[Malvolio]

“I’m Not a Racist” Says Republican Politician Who Repeatedly Uses N-word to Discuss Black Lives Matter

So wait. This piece of work refers to Black people in Detroit with the N-word, but he claims he's not racist? Paging WBE!

[AnakinFlair]

“I’m Not a Racist” Says Republican Politician Who Repeatedly Uses N-word to Discuss Black Lives Matter
"When Bob Joyce, the commission’s chair, told Eckerle he couldn’t say that, Eckerle said, “I can say anything I want. Black Lives Matter has everything to do with taking the country away from us.”

They keep saying the quiet part out loud.

You know what white privileged is? It's seeing all of these people get caught on camera saying and doing racist things, and suffering the consequences for it- but still going out and doing or saying racist things on camera and think that YOU will get away with it.

[Tami]

They keep saying the quiet part out loud.

You know what white privileged is? It's seeing all of these people get caught on camera saying and doing racist things, and suffering the consequences for it- but still going out and doing or saying racist things on camera and think that YOU will get away with it.

Sometimes I think it's less, that they ever consider if they will get away with it or not, as much as they think they should get away with it. It's like their Id is switched on full power, and they have no concept of morality or civility or even common sense.

People like that are like spoiled children who say and do whatever they want and expect to get away with it because they always have because their parents always have because their grandparents always have. It's part of their 'entitlement', they are entitled to say and act any way they want. When confronted with a bigger reality than the small one they grew up in, they claim that they are not racist, that what they are doing is normal and acceptable.

They can't accept that the world they grew up in isn't the same world everyone else is living in, and worse that their world isn't reality in the broad sense of the word. They grew up in a bubble, and they can't move past that.

[Kuro no Shinigami]

US Health and Human Services Secretary Visits Taiwan

U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar arrived in Taiwan Sunday, leading a U.S. delegation for a three-day visit during which he will meet President Tsai Ing-wen.

This is the highest-level visit by an American official since the break in diplomatic relations between Washington and Taipei in 1979.

The visit comes as relations between the United States and China have plunged to historic lows.

China objects to official contact between the U.S. and Taiwan, which it claims as its own territory, while the Taiwanese president has strongly advocated Taiwan’s recognition as a sovereign nation.

Beijing has strongly and repeatedly objected to recognition of self-ruled Taiwan and has vowed to seize the island by force if necessary.

Last week, China described Azar's visit as a threat to "peace and stability," while its defense minister warned against “dangerous moves” by Washington.

Washington has said the Taiwan trip is an opportunity to learn from the island's success story in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic and to acknowledge its progressive values.

"This trip is a recognition of Taiwan's success in combating COVID-19 and a testament to the shared beliefs that open and democratic societies are best equipped to combating disease threats like COVID-19," a Health and Human Services official said to reporters before the trip.

Taiwan has recorded fewer than 500 COVID-19 cases and only seven deaths.

https://thediplomat.com/2020/08/us-h...evel-exchange/

Azar’s trip to Taiwan will mark the first visit by a Cabinet-level U.S. official since 2014, when Environmental Protection Agency administrator Gina McCarthy visited the country.

If there is a nation that the US government should learn how to combat the covid-19 pandemic from, it is Taiwan. The US government should have paid attention to Taiwan's success in containing the covid-19 outbreak months ago. But even if they did learn anything, they are too ineffective and not bold enough to do anything to slow down or halt the outbreak.

[Malvolio]

When you're used to having the whole pie and patting yourself on the back for giving "those people" a few crumbs, you can't understand why "those people" aren't satisfied with their crumbs, even if all they want is a thin slice of the pie and you'll still have 95% of the pie.

[Darkspellmaster]

US Health and Human Services Secretary Visits Taiwan



https://thediplomat.com/2020/08/us-h...evel-exchange/




If there is a nation that the US government should learn how to combat the covid-19 pandemic from, it is Taiwan. The US government should have paid attention to Taiwan's success in containing the covid-19 outbreak months ago. But even if they did learn anything, they are too ineffective and not bold enough to do anything to slow down or halt the outbreak.

Problem is that they won't, or those that will won't say things out of fear of the Orange menace removing them.

This also brings up the fact that the CCP looks to be setting up for Xi to be in charge till 2035 or longer.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

Biden did consistently outperform Warren in polls, so there does seem to be a relevant group of voters who would support Biden over Trump but not necessarily Warren.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...251.html#polls
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...247.html#polls

Polls don’t work like that when you are constructing a ticket. The question is are there people who are less likely to vote for Biden if he’s on a ticket with Warren vs anybody else vs what she brings vs anybody else. The fact is Warren performed better with moderates who for whatever reason didn’t want Biden and progressives who were never going to be enthusiastic about Biden, that’s what she brings that Biden doesn’t have locked down. Which is why most polling reflects just when you add her to a ticket, the ticket does better

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/eliza...b6d376358ca3b6

That’s April

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...-for-vp-285659

That’s late May

https://prospect.org/politics/poll-s...t-than-harris/

That’s a couple weeks ago.


The polling is very clear and consistent that of the names circulated, Warren makes the biggest positive difference with voters who aren’t all in on Biden and adds the most positive impact.

I’m not saying that if you polled all Democrats that more wouldn’t prefer Harris. But I am saying that Harris being on the ticket doesn’t really bring anybody that Biden doesn’t already have and the negatives for those people if you flip her for Warren are next to non existent and you get a bunch of people Harris can’t reach.

So if it’s purely about winning, she’s the easiest candidate to pick. Which is why I strongly feel that Biden’s dragged this out so long because I think him and his team really do think she locks the race up for him but there’s pressure to not go with her amongst some that helped him get there and that’s the balancing act right now of whether to pay favors or go with the data.

[Mister Mets]

Polls don’t work like that when you are constructing a ticket. The question is are there people who are less likely to vote for Biden if he’s on a ticket with Warren vs anybody else vs what she brings vs anybody else. The fact is Warren performed better with moderates who for whatever reason didn’t want Biden and progressives who were never going to be enthusiastic about Biden, that’s what she brings that Biden doesn’t have locked down. Which is why most polling reflects just when you add her to a ticket, the ticket does better

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/eliza...b6d376358ca3b6

That’s April

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...-for-vp-285659

That’s late May

https://prospect.org/politics/poll-s...t-than-harris/

That’s a couple weeks ago.


The polling is very clear and consistent that of the names circulated, Warren makes the biggest positive difference with voters who aren’t all in on Biden and adds the most positive impact.

I’m not saying that if you polled all Democrats that more wouldn’t prefer Harris. But I am saying that Harris being on the ticket doesn’t really bring anybody that Biden doesn’t already have and the negatives for those people if you flip her for Warren are next to non existent and you get a bunch of people Harris can’t reach.

So if it’s purely about winning, she’s the easiest candidate to pick. Which is why I strongly feel that Biden’s dragged this out so long because I think him and his team really do think she locks the race up for him but there’s pressure to not go with her amongst some that helped him get there and that’s the balancing act right now of whether to pay favors or go with the data.

The polls aren't that clear-cut.

Some of the polls show Warren as the top choice, but it's only among 22 percent, or at one point, 13 percent.

Now comes a new poll from Data for Progress and YouGov that blows that conventional wisdom to hell. It’s very good news for Warren. And the deeper you drill down, the better news it is.

The poll asked uncommitted voters and voters in battleground states a series of questions.

In battleground states, among independent voters Warren is ranked best on the economy by 22 percent of voters, compared to 7 percent for Harris. She also comes out on top in terms of who’d be best at dealing with the coronavirus.

Among independent voters, the poll also asked who would be best at taking over as president if something happened to Joe Biden. Warren also came in first with 13 percent to Harris’s 7 percent.

https://prospect.org/politics/poll-s...t-than-harris/
https://www.dataforprogress.org/memo...f-independents

It also doesn't take name recognition into account. By running for President, Warren and Harris will be more recognizable than other potential running mates.

With this poll, the real winner was probably "Not Sure" as the numbers don't even add up to 40 percent.



Looking at first choices can be misleading, as most Democrats will be fine with multiple candidates. Someone choosing Warren over Val Demings doesn't mean they'll be unhappy with Demings when they hear her story.