All purpose news and politics thread part VI: This Is Not The Time For Posing

[PwrdOn]

Don't try to wiggle out of it now. You declared definitively that Biden was going to get us into a war with China because he sent Australia some submarines. If China isn't going to go to war with a country that it routinely skirmishes with to the point where 43 Chinese soldiers lost their lives in May 2020, I don't think it's likely that the two nuclear powers that are as tied together economically at the USA and China are going to either, and definitely not because of some posturing over submarines. I mean, we can talk about America's diplomacy having no long-term strategy in place at this point, since the long-range strategy to deal with China diplomatically and economically was the TPP, but that's not 'Biden is going to get us into a war with China', either.

First off, that skirmish was not "routine" but the first fatal clash along that border in decades, and only 4 soldiers died, not 43, though predictably the usual suspects howled fake news and coverups when China released the names of dead. Second, if India shares a border with China and their forces are always clashing there, while Australia is thousands of miles away and is under no imminent danger, then if the goal is to deter Chinese aggression wouldn't the sensible strategy be to sell advanced weaponry to India instead? Of course we all know that would never happen, countries like India that are just useful pawns and not true allies never get any of the high tech hardware, and nuclear submarines are offensive weapons, and therefore building them is indicative of a more offensive posture. I get that the "sensible" position these days is that we should just continue ramping up the hostility against China but stop JUST short of actual war, but walking that kind of tightrope is pretty difficult in the modern geopolitical climate.

I already know your answer "White man's fault only!" as opposed to generally complicated situations in general (minus your last example).

"Love it or leave it" would be a harsher burn if most everyone in this thread didn't freely admit that America has massive issues that need to be addressed.

I have to say, for an educator, you don't seem to learn or observe very well.

Christ, you're not even going to deny that you believe those things?

It's nice that everyone recognizes that America has issues, but somehow we're always too busy demonizing foreign countries to ever get around to addressing any of those problems. And yeah we COULD be doing both at the same time, but right now it seems that rather than walking and chewing gum, we're more like Sean Spicer swallowing entire packs of Big Red whole every morning.

[The Cool Thatguy]

Christ, you're not even going to deny that you believe those things?

It's nice that everyone recognizes that America has issues, but somehow we're always too busy demonizing foreign countries to ever get around to addressing any of those problems. And yeah we COULD be doing both at the same time, but right now it seems that rather than walking and chewing gum, we're more like Sean Spicer swallowing entire packs of Big Red whole every morning.

I don't believe any of that bullshit, thanks.

But I also know traps when I see them, and I'm not writing a God damn thesis counterpoint to someone who is clearly incapable of changing their mind. You're not worth my time.

[Gray Lensman]

I think he lives in the US. Bernie Bros and trump supporters have the same talking points, so I'm pretty sure he's a Bernie Bro.

He does seem to share the tendency of arguing with the imaginary versions of those who don't parrot his views rather than the actual people and the actual stuff they bring up.

[Gray Lensman]

Thats not a burn to me. I know America has a lot of issues. But I would rather live here then any where in the world. Well maybe I would like to live in Canada. I enjoy the cold, Hockey, and would love to have maple syrup with every meal.

Personally I'd live to live in New Zealand, but instead I am in Nevada.

[PwrdOn]

I don't believe any of that bullshit, thanks.

But I also know traps when I see them, and I'm not writing a God damn thesis counterpoint to someone who is clearly incapable of changing their mind. You're not worth my time.

I didn't think I was going to change anyone's mind either, but I still tried to have a discussion because that's kind of the point of having forums like this.

He does seem to share the tendency of arguing with the imaginary versions of those who don't parrot his views rather than the actual people and the actual stuff they bring up.

I talk about this stuff because I think it's interesting, and I like delving into the details of all these issues rather than trying to dissect the personal motivations of everybody else who is posting. At the very least, I have not personally attacked anyone, can you say that?

[babyblob]

Personally I'd live to live in New Zealand, but instead I am in Nevada.

I used to live in Nevada (for an amazing 6 months) it is a very pretty state. New Mexico was also nice. I enjoy the southwest because of the landscape but A bit too warm for my tastes. New Zealand looks nice from the pics I have seen. But any where that is not cold 6 months a year or longer is not for me. I was in heaven when I lived in Alaska

[Tendrin]

First off, that skirmish was not "routine" but the first fatal clash along that border in decades, and only 4 soldiers died, not 43, though predictably the usual suspects howled fake news and coverups when China released the names of dead. Second, if India shares a border with China and their forces are always clashing there, while Australia is thousands of miles away and is under no imminent danger, then if the goal is to deter Chinese aggression wouldn't the sensible strategy be to sell advanced weaponry to India instead? Of course we all know that would never happen, countries like India that are just useful pawns and not true allies never get any of the high tech hardware, and nuclear submarines are offensive weapons, and therefore building them is indicative of a more offensive posture. I get that the "sensible" position these days is that we should just continue ramping up the hostility against China but stop JUST short of actual war, but walking that kind of tightrope is pretty difficult in the modern geopolitical climate.

Yeah, I misspoke. I should have said 'routinely in 2020 and 2021' and miswrote the number of casualties as the number of those killed. That was my mistake when I checked my reference. Inattentive ADD can be a horrible pain sometimes.

Let me ask you a very simple question: You mentioned that Biden would be 'forced' to respond by declaring war. I assume you meant over, say, Taiwan, right?

[PwrdOn]

Yeah, I misspoke. I should have said 'routinely in 2020 and 2021' and miswrote the number of casualties as the number of those killed. That was my mistake when I checked my reference. Inattentive ADD can be a horrible pain sometimes.

Let me ask you a very simple question: You mentioned that Biden would be 'forced' to respond by declaring war. I assume you meant over, say, Taiwan, right?

That's a big fucking difference right, because routinely clashed would imply that the border has been hostile for decades, like the situation in Kashmir between India and Pakistan, rather than something that heated up recently due to an unfortunate incident that was clearly not planned by the higher ups on either side, and would have simmered down had it not been blown totally out of proportion by the media and used to feed nationalistic propaganda. On a side note, the fallout would have been MUCH worse if China had a "free press" like in the US or India, because in the aftermath of the skirmish the censors clamped down hard on anti-Indian social media posts and tried to downplay the incident as much as possible, in contrast to the Indian side where social media was just baying for blood for weeks and months afterwards.

Yeah the Taiwan situation is a good example. Any kind of modus vivendi with China would necessarily involve letting them take control of Taiwan, since like it or not, this is a core national interest for them that they will not back down from, and while kicking the can down the road has worked for the last 70 years to avert a major crisis, it's obviously not a sustainable solution. So if our side is going to draw a red line at preserving Taiwanese self government, then inevitably, there's going to be some kind of clash over this that escalates into something bigger. Any president that makes a deal with China that involves ceding Taiwan without firing a shot will be excoriated in the press as the modern day Chamberlain, and if you think THAT's bad, imagine the billion-strong mob that will coming for the throat of any Chinese leader who signs away pieces of the motherland to the imperialists. There are ways to de-escalate and get ourselves out of this, but we're not on that trajectory now.

[The Cool Thatguy]

I didn't think I was going to change anyone's mind either, but I still tried to have a discussion because that's kind of the point of having forums like this.

There's discussion, and disingenuous attempts to draw out an argument. Using police accountability and 'black on black violence' was a pretty blatant attempt to start a Kobayashi Maru argument in your favor.

[Tendrin]

That's a big fucking difference right, because routinely clashed would imply that the border has been hostile for decades, like the situation in Kashmir between India and Pakistan, rather than something that heated up recently due to an unfortunate incident that was clearly not planned by the higher ups on either side, and would have simmered down had it not been blown totally out of proportion by the media and used to feed nationalistic propaganda.

Yeah, sure, it was an error, but I'd argue that tensions and disputes, and yes violence, have been pretty common over the years. Forty years is not such a long time in these things, given some of the arguments you yourself have used.

I'm not going to argue with your vague claims about things being 'blown out of proportion for nationalistic purposes', which is your essential excuse for just about everything next to 'racist white people', but I'll link this here instead: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-I...8%E2%80%932017

It's a lot more complicated than wanting to place blame on 'propaganda', I think, judging by the history.

Yeah the Taiwan situation is a good example. Any kind of modus vivendi with China would necessarily involve letting them take control of Taiwan, since like it or not, this is a core national interest for them that they will not back down from, and while kicking the can down the road has worked for the last 70 years to avert a major crisis, it's obviously not a sustainable solution. So if our side is going to draw a red line at preserving Taiwanese self government, then inevitably, there's going to be some kind of clash over this that escalates into something bigger. Any president that makes a deal with China that involves ceding Taiwan without firing a shot will be excoriated in the press as the modern day Chamberlain, and if you think THAT's bad, imagine the billion-strong mob that will coming for the throat of any Chinese leader who signs away pieces of the motherland to the imperialists. There are ways to de-escalate and get ourselves out of this, but we're not on that trajectory now.

And given China's behavior with Hong Kong, it's hard to believe any Taiwanese government perspective is going to be one that takes a promise of 'two systems one country' seriously. So, I ask instead: What would you suspect would trigger a Chinese annexation of Taiwan?

[Jack Dracula]

Pint or no, you're speaking the truth.

It's quite tragic the way people who are legitimately poor spew propaganda of the rich. I always hear a neighbor of mine, who is a struggling part-time house painter and has numerous medical conditions, ranting about how we don't need to raise the minimum wage and Obama Care is horrible for the country.

We recently had a manager at my work retire due to the onset of MS. He'd been an avid GOP and Trump supporter and has had to start a GoFundMe page and other things to help with his medical expenses. I've had to bite my tongue when people bring up his situation because he and just about everyone else there has been voting for the people who've denied them free or affordable healthcare for decades now. All because an insignificant percentage of people may game the system and get something for free. Instead, everyone pays out the ass for barely adequate health insurance.

Inattentive ADD can be a horrible pain sometimes.

Can confirm.

[Tami]

Trump admits that he called Governor Kemp and tried to pressure him to hold a “special election” and complains there was no quid pro quo

[PwrdOn]

Yeah, sure, it was an error, but I'd argue that tensions and disputes have been a pretty regular factor. I'm not going to argue with your vague claims about things being 'blown out of proportion for nationalistic purposes', which is your essential excuse for just about everything next to 'racist white people', but I'll link this here instead: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-I...8%E2%80%932017

It's a lot more complicated than wanting to place blame on 'propaganda', I think, judging by the history.

And given China's behavior with Hong Kong, it's hard to believe any Taiwanese government perspective is going to be one that takes a promise of 'two systems one country' seriously. So, I ask instead: What would you suspect would trigger a Chinese annexation of Taiwan?

Obviously relations between India and China have not been friendly for some time, and both governments are a lot more keen than you would think to preserve control over a patch of remote territory that would matter much less were they not a flashpoint for a wider geopolitical contest. But I think that by any reasonable assessment of the situation on the ground, the odds of this spilling out into a wider war are pretty low, which you can see just by looking at a map. Quite frankly, both the Chinese and Indian militaries tend to rely on quantity rather than quality to carry the day, and that terrain just isn't conducive to mass deployments or large scale operations. Even the 1962 war was very limited in scope given the size of the armies involved on paper.

As far as Taiwan goes, I think we're far beyond the point of one country two systems now, and while I don't think a direct attack is imminent, most likely Beijing's strategy will be to try and install a more mainland-friendly government in Taiwan, backed up by more economic and diplomatic coercion. And yeah, that would be a difficult sell electorally in Taiwan at the moment where anti-China sentiment is extremely vicious, but if you ever talk to people from Taiwan, much of that confidence comes from an unwavering belief that the US military will intervene if China were to ever attack them, something that you and other posters have said isn't going to happen. So once that security blanket is gone, it's going to be a lot harder for Taiwan to resist Chinese pressure.

[Gray Lensman]

Trump admits that he called Governor Kemp and tried to pressure him to hold a “special election” and complains there was no quid pro quo

I can agree with the "No quid pro quo" part - that would require Trump to do something in return, and we all know he doesn't do stuff like that. The best he can do is to hold off his ire for a little while longer.

[Tendrin]

As far as Taiwan goes, I think we're far beyond the point of one country two systems now, and while I don't think a direct attack is imminent, most likely Beijing's strategy will be to try and install a more mainland-friendly government in Taiwan, backed up by more economic and diplomatic coercion. And yeah, that would be a difficult sell electorally in Taiwan at the moment where anti-China sentiment is extremely vicious, but if you ever talk to people from Taiwan, much of that confidence comes from an unwavering belief that the US military will intervene if China were to ever attack them, something that you and other posters have said isn't going to happen. So once that security blanket is gone, it's going to be a lot harder for Taiwan to resist Chinese pressure.

I don't think Biden is going to get us into a war with China. I also don't think China is going to annex Taiwan just yet. This is one of the reasons I don't think we're going to war. I'm not the person who declared that Biden is going to get us into a war with China, however, so you must, in all that wisdom you claim to have, know something the rest of us don't. Do enlighten us.