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  1. #11206
    Astonishing Member babyblob's Avatar
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    And every Trumper when asked why Trump did not call them out last night.
    "Well Biden did not call out Antifa."

    Antifa and BLM are like the monster under the bed for the GOP at the moment. it used to be Muslims and Latinos. Now it is BLM and Antifa.
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  2. #11207

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    Biden literally said, "Antifa is not an organization, it's an idea."

    Like, pointing out you can't call out the Tooth Fairy because she's imaginary.

    But y'know, Trump, upon fact-checkers going over whatever he said, none of it had any basis in truth. At all. All night. And he said a f***ing lot of it.
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  3. #11208
    Ol' Doogie, Circa 2005 JDogindy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kirby101 View Post
    Biden has consistently polled over 50% and has a 7%-9% lead. Trump cannot get above 42%. How does he win?
    Unless Trump begins throwing free silver dollars or some outrageous scheme that involves breads and circuses, I just can't see Trump winning. Granted, we said this stuff back in 2016, so you know; don't count your chickens before they hatch. However, given what has happened this year, not to mention his conduct the past few weeks combined with his performance tonight, he's going to take a beating in the polls.

    Biden didn't exactly earn himself many favors, but Trump clearly lost out last night.

  4. #11209
    Ol' Doogie, Circa 2005 JDogindy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by worstblogever View Post
    Biden literally said, "Antifa is not an organization, it's an idea."

    Like, pointing out you can't call out the Tooth Fairy because she's imaginary.

    But y'know, Trump, upon fact-checkers going over whatever he said, none of it had any basis in truth. At all. All night. And he said a f***ing lot of it.
    And then when Trump was asked if he condemned which supremacy, like the Proud Boys, he was all "look at the radical left". I'm not going to lie and say there aren't people who are left leaning that are a danger to society, but based on my many experiences, left wing folks as a whole can't organize and band together to save their lives. Shoot, remember the Occupy movement? While people on this side of the political scale can group up, their time together is often fleeting before a majority of folks lose interest and find other things in life.

    Meanwhile, people on the right are far more organized, and capable of causing chaos for their ideology due to how motivated they are. As I stated before, they have their own hidden language, their own websites for goods and services, their own means of networking, and often advise investing in cryptocurrencies as opposed to the traditional money we have used for centuries. With that level of devotion and dedication, that's why the FBI doesn't treat Antifa as anything on their radar while the alt-right as a whole is clearly labeled as a terrorist movement.

  5. #11210
    Extraordinary Member Revolutionary_Jack's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JDogindy View Post
    Unless Trump begins throwing free silver dollars or some outrageous scheme that involves breads and circuses, I just can't see Trump winning. Granted, we said this stuff back in 2016, so you know; don't count your chickens before they hatch. However, given what has happened this year, not to mention his conduct the past few weeks combined with his performance tonight, he's going to take a beating in the polls.

    Biden didn't exactly earn himself many favors, but Trump clearly lost out last night.
    The thing is there's no scenario where one can imagine Trump winning over Biden in a landslide. That's obviously not gonna happen. Were Trump to win (assuming a pop. vote victory) it would have to be a very close election, an extremely close election. So that's what he and his campaign are preparing for now...their tactics are to scare Dem voters, intimidate them, reduce Dem voters to apathy and so on, as well as fence-sitters and third party voters.

    Realistically, Trump and his campaign are preparing for and expecting an EC win, which to be honest has to be a first in US History. In general, American candidates of both parties always aimed in their strategy for the popular vote. Dubya Bush in his 2000 election (which was a very close run thing) aimed for the popular vote and the EC vote, and he won by a sliver. He won over Kerry in 2004 and both McCain and Romney campaigned for the popular vote. Even Trump back in 2016 aimed for the popular vote hence his campaigning in blue states.

    So you have a candidate who's blatantly signalling that he doesn't want the votes of the majority of Americans or intend to represent them. That's truly unprecedented and I have to say deeply effed up.

    So if Trump were to win, it would be a very close election, or via EC again. That's assuming a situation with clear agreed on parameters for victory, i.e. Trump gets to 270 votes. With the nightmare scenarios of contested mail-in ballots and so on, who knows.

  6. #11211
    Horrific Experiment JCAll's Avatar
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    The GOP may be resigned to the fact that they're never winning the popular vote again. Not the way they're behaving.

  7. #11212
    Astonishing Member Darkspellmaster's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JCAll View Post
    The GOP may be resigned to the fact that they're never winning the popular vote again. Not the way they're behaving.
    They will fall apart and re invent themselves. Happened to the Federalists, and the whigs, and other parties before the Republicans became what they are now. May have a different name though as this one has become tainted.

  8. #11213
    Extraordinary Member Revolutionary_Jack's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darkspellmaster View Post
    They will fall apart and re invent themselves. Happened to the Federalists, and the whigs, and other parties before the Republicans became what they are now. May have a different name though as this one has become tainted.
    The Republican party is unusual for its stubbornness. I mean I remember thinking after Obama won they would start moderating, I remember thinking even more with re-election. Like there was an internal party report at the time about the GOP being out of touch with minorities and so on. Instead they doubled down and tripled down and now it's entirely nihilistic. McConnell above all. They need defeat, repeated defeat. Not just in 2020 but the midterms of 2022, and then again in 2024, and after that in 2026 before they maybe start moving towards the center.

    Conservative parties in other countries tend to adapt and change. In the UK, after Blair and Brown brought Labour back, David Cameron's conservative party started moderating, they supported gay marriage even. The current PM of England, Boris Johnson is a dangerous clown and incompetent but on a lot of levels he's fairly moderate. Conservatives on coming to power tend to put some labour legislation, watered down and rebranded, into effect on taking office. Whereas the GOP doesn't seem to do that or care.

  9. #11214
    Astonishing Member Kusanagi's Avatar
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    I feel it's going to take multiple consecutive defeats (presidential and congress) to actually change Republican party. So even if Biden wins, even if Democrats keep the House and win the Senate, I don't expect Republicans to change much by 2024. Oh sure they might not run a Trump again, but their policies (and lack there of) won't change a bit.

    Now if by some miracle they stayed out of national power (meaning no house, no senate, no presidency) 8 years. That might do it, but anything less than that won't do the trick.
    Last edited by Kusanagi; 09-30-2020 at 06:14 PM.
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  10. #11215
    Ultimate Member Kirby101's Avatar
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    Trump has zero chance of winning the popular vote.
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  11. #11216
    Astonishing Member Panfoot's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kirby101 View Post
    Trump has zero chance of winning the popular vote.
    The scary thing is that really doesn't mean anything.

  12. #11217
    Old school comic book fan WestPhillyPunisher's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kusanagi View Post
    I feel it's going to take multiple consecutive defeats (presidential and congress) to actually change Republican party. So even if Biden wins, even if Democrats keep the House and win the Senate, I don't expect Republicans to change much by 2024. Oh sure they might not run a Trump again, but their policies (and lack there of) won't change a bit.

    Now if by some miracle they stayed out of national power (meaning no house, no senate, no presidency) 8 years. That might do it, but anything less than that won't do the trick.
    The GOP enjoyed the insanity that came with Trump as a faux authoritarian because he got them three conservative justices while raking in boatloads of cash from tax cuts, so it stands to reason they’re going prop up another Trump like madman for 2024. While it’s unlikely Republicans can find anyone as thuggish and unhinged as the Donald, that doesn’t mean they won’t try, and believe me, they will, hell, there’s already an early contender in the clubhouse in Tucker Carlson who’s shown he’s demented enough to run on the Republican ticket.
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  13. #11218
    Extraordinary Member Revolutionary_Jack's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kirby101 View Post
    Trump has zero chance of winning the popular vote.
    Exactly you have in 2020 for the first time in us history where a candidate is outright aiming not to represent the majority of us citizens

  14. #11219
    Astonishing Member Kusanagi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WestPhillyPunisher View Post
    The GOP enjoyed the insanity that came with Trump as a faux authoritarian because he got them three conservative justices while raking in boatloads of cash from tax cuts, so it stands to reason they’re going prop up another Trump like madman for 2024. While it’s unlikely Republicans can find anyone as thuggish and unhinged as the Donald, that doesn’t mean they won’t try, and believe me, they will, hell, there’s already an early contender in the clubhouse in Tucker Carlson who’s shown he’s demented enough to run on the Republican ticket.
    I feel they'll aim for the same positions except doesn't say the quiet part loud, or at least is more charismatic about it.
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  15. #11220
    Ultimate Member Mister Mets's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kirby101 View Post
    Trumps road to an EC win is very narrow. He loses without Florida. He can, but his chances are much smaller than 2016. Especially if he loses some of the States he got then.
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/
    538 currently gives Trump a 21% chance, according to your link.

    They gave him a 28.6% chance on election day in 2016.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

    His worst odds in 2016 were Mid-August (11 percent) and right after the Access Hollywood tape came out (12 percent) so he was less-favored for parts of last year.

    Quote Originally Posted by Revolutionary_Jack View Post
    The thing is there's no scenario where one can imagine Trump winning over Biden in a landslide. That's obviously not gonna happen. Were Trump to win (assuming a pop. vote victory) it would have to be a very close election, an extremely close election. So that's what he and his campaign are preparing for now...their tactics are to scare Dem voters, intimidate them, reduce Dem voters to apathy and so on, as well as fence-sitters and third party voters.

    Realistically, Trump and his campaign are preparing for and expecting an EC win, which to be honest has to be a first in US History. In general, American candidates of both parties always aimed in their strategy for the popular vote. Dubya Bush in his 2000 election (which was a very close run thing) aimed for the popular vote and the EC vote, and he won by a sliver. He won over Kerry in 2004 and both McCain and Romney campaigned for the popular vote. Even Trump back in 2016 aimed for the popular vote hence his campaigning in blue states.

    So you have a candidate who's blatantly signalling that he doesn't want the votes of the majority of Americans or intend to represent them. That's truly unprecedented and I have to say deeply effed up.

    So if Trump were to win, it would be a very close election, or via EC again. That's assuming a situation with clear agreed on parameters for victory, i.e. Trump gets to 270 votes. With the nightmare scenarios of contested mail-in ballots and so on, who knows.
    The election is determined by the electoral college, so it is the smart play. Anyone in the campaign focusing resources on the popular vote is essentially committing malpractice.

    One of the reasons the Hillary Clinton campaign lost is that they forgot that. Every second and penny wasted turning out the numbers for the popular vote (either by going for liberal enclaves in red states, or turning out the vote in blue states) was part of a strategy that gave Trump the White House.

    Most elections aren't close enough for there to be a difference in the popular vote and the electoral college. Obama won in 2008 and 2012 because it was a favorable environment, not because he focused on the popular vote. The campaign cared a lot about the swing states. They had enough tailwind that it didn't matter.
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