Originally Posted by
TheDarman
I disagree.
While the House majority is certainly in trouble (Democrats only hold onto the majority by four, maybe five (when other elections are called), seats), it is important to recognize that Republicans are defending way more vulnerable seats in 2022 for the Senate than Democrats are.
While North Carolina has been difficult for Democrats to win, they won't have to contend with an incumbency advantage for their Republican opponent. And that is true with Pennsylvania, which has been better for Democrats when Trump isn't on the ballot. The Lieutenant Governor, who seems reasonably popular in the state, is the one running for, and most likely to get, the Democratic nomination for the seat.
Georgia may be problematic given that Warnock won the state by a little over two points against an unelected incumbent who was perceived to be widely out of touch and riddled with scandal. But Stacey Abrams may turn that race into a spectacle as she might run for governor again. And, given Kemp's issues with Trump, she may be running against someone without an incumbency advantage and someone who would have argued to overturn Georgia's election in 2020--a point that certainly helped Democrats swing the race three points in their direction.
Arizona is an interesting case. I'm unsure if it will be like Virginia...or more like North Carolina. Their swing towards Democrats seems to be more emblematic of an issue with Trump than with the Republican Party. But the Arizona GOP seems intent to censure all Republicans who don't stand with Trump. I don't see how a candidate who isn't a threat to democracy doesn't make his or her way to that ticket. And Kelly is a great candidate on paper and will have an incumbency advantage as well.
Florida is another odd opportunity. While it has drifted towards Trump's GOP in recent years, there are rumors that Ivanka Trump wants to run for Rubio's seat. If there is a bruising primary in Florida, that could open up a reasonably united Democratic Party to take away a seat in another swing state. Especially if Biden isn't the socialist that Trump made him out to be in this race.
Meanwhile, Ron Johnson is running a state that elected his Democratic partner by over ten points in 2018. Johnson has also tied himself quite closely to Trump, despite Trump losing the state this time after barely eeking out a win in 2016. While Wisconsin is a weird state, it has been better for Democrats, especially without Trump at the top of the ticket.
And, while Roy Blunt did do the right thing and vote to certify the election, he only won a state by 2.8% that Trump won by nearly double digits in 2016, and by more in 2020. With Trump's ire coming after him, I imagine that he will at least be weakened in the general. And a candidate like Jason Kander could bring him down there too. It may not be likely, but it is a vulnerability.
The truth is that Democrats are defending two vulnerable seats in Arizona and Georgia. Meanwhile, Republicans are defending competitive seats in North Carolina and Pennsylvania (which will both be open seats in 2022), Florida (because it is still a swing state of sorts), Wisconsin (a state with a pretty unpopular incumbent), Missouri, Iowa (depending on whether or not Grassley runs again), and maybe Ohio (though I think that Portman is probably safe--middle of the road enough to scrape by).
This is even conceding the House majority may be in trouble, but it is important to recognize, also, that the current majority is even in an arrangement of seats that were created for the explicit purpose of locking Democrats out of control of the chamber for ten years at least. Democrats have control of far more state houses and governor mansions this time than they did back in 2011 after a rough mid-term. I see no reason to conclude that the map will be that much worse for Democrats than it has been in prior years.