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  1. #13366
    Ultimate Member Tendrin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spidey5640 View Post
    Here's a link regarding the Voter registration numbers from a source most people on this board might trust - https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/19/u...nsylvania.html
    A lesson that Democrats have had to learn, over and over again, is that you can't count on new voters. That Trump, and his supporters of course, are doing so is pretty much ought to be a cause for concern rather than celebration.

    There will be no czarinas to save the hair furher.

    Seems to me that the Republicans are too busy fretting about how many Democrats are voting and trying to stop them to think they've got it in the bag with registration.
    Last edited by Tendrin; 10-21-2020 at 05:18 AM.

  2. #13367
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tendrin View Post
    A lesson that Democrats have had to learn, over and over again, is that you can't count on new voters. That Trump, and his supporters of course, are doing so is pretty much ought to be a cause for concern rather than celebration.

    There will be no czarinas to save the hair furher.

    Seems to me that the Republicans are too busy fretting about how many Democrats are voting and trying to stop them to think they've got it in the bag with registration.
    And before voters enthusiasm for Trump is used to show why voters won't turn out more for Biden, Trump also inspires Negative Enthusiasm (As in people being enthusiastic about being against Trump). Voting Registration isn't used by Pollsters for a reason (btw, Trafalgar group says Trump is going to win because of Shy Trumpers, though naturally the fact the pollster said that himself instead of providing data from the poll makes that a bit more difficult to take at his word.)

  3. #13368

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spidey5640 View Post
    Trump wins Pennsylvania and the election. Enthusiasm in PA is off the charts for him.
    Enthusiasm does not win elections. If it did, we'd be talking about Bernie going for a second term right now.
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  4. #13369
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    Quote Originally Posted by worstblogever View Post
    Enthusiasm does not win elections. If it did, we'd be talking about Bernie going for a second term right now.
    Exactly this.

    It just doesn't work like that.
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  5. #13370
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    Re: Pennsylvania.

    There's the possibility of a surge in favor of Trump but I believe the polls have been adjusted to take into account the "rural white voter". That was the major mistake of 2016 and I doubt pollsters will repeat that again.

    As it stands democrats already lead in early registration in the 3 major swing states and majority of early ballots are from democratic voters.

    It's going to take a much, much bigger surge from Trump voters than anything we've seen before for Trump to swing the election his way. Not to mention that current polling has to be horrendously wrong for that to happen.
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  6. #13371
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    Quote Originally Posted by Username taken View Post
    Re: Pennsylvania.

    There's the possibility of a surge in favor of Trump but I believe the polls have been adjusted to take into account the "rural white voter". That was the major mistake of 2016 and I doubt pollsters will repeat that again.

    As it stands democrats already lead in early registration in the 3 major swing states and majority of early ballots are from democratic voters.

    It's going to take a much, much bigger surge from Trump voters than anything we've seen before for Trump to swing the election his way. Not to mention that current polling has to be horrendously wrong for that to happen.
    In other words, Polls have become more accurate than 2016. And they weren't exactly that off at that time either. They still give a good idea where people lean in initial voting intention.
    Last edited by ChangingStation; 10-21-2020 at 06:20 AM.

  7. #13372
    Ultimate Member Tendrin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by worstblogever View Post
    Enthusiasm does not win elections. If it did, we'd be talking about Bernie going for a second term right now.
    Exactly. Rather than make us go 'oh noes', all Bob did with his post is make me think: 'haha, I've seen *that* before', and it never works. I'm more concerned about the GOP trying to stop the vote-count when it favors Trump.

  8. #13373
    Ultimate Member Tendrin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChangingStation View Post
    And before voters enthusiasm for Trump is used to show why voters won't turn out more for Biden, Trump also inspires Negative Enthusiasm (As in people being enthusiastic about being against Trump). Voting Registration isn't used by Pollsters for a reason (btw, Trafalgar group says Trump is going to win because of Shy Trumpers, though naturally the fact the pollster said that himself instead of providing data from the poll makes that a bit more difficult to take at his word.)
    Also, as others havqe noted, I have never met anyone *shy* about their Trump support. They're usually quote loud and loutish about it.

  9. #13374
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tendrin View Post
    Also, as others havqe noted, I have never met anyone *shy* about their Trump support. They're usually quote loud and loutish about it.
    And others would argue that they naturally wouldn't talk about it. But frankly, most people are open to their political preferences, especially when their names aren't included.

  10. #13375
    Ultimate Member Kirby101's Avatar
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    That Times article was full of caveats on why this increase in GOP registration does not mean Trump is more likely to win.

    Voter registration numbers alone are not predictive about the outcome of races: Democrats had a surge in voter registrations in 2018, and went on to win the House of Representatives but lost some races in key states where they had an overall registration edge. Democrats also led Republicans in voter registration in several key states in 2016 that they ended up losing. Party registrations are driven in some states by local and congressional races as much as the presidential race, too.

    The Trump-Biden contest this fall may be driven less by incremental changes in registration than by who turns out to vote, and how much they want the president to have a second term or not. And the difference of a point or two in voter registration only makes a difference in a close race.
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  11. #13376
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kirby101 View Post
    That Times article was full of caveats on why this increase in GOP registration does not mean Trump is more likely to win.
    Point is nothing is ever as simple as we'd like especially when people are concerned.

  12. #13377
    Astonishing Member Kusanagi's Avatar
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    The thing about the swing states/to close to call states is that if polling is accurate (always the big if) Biden isn' t reliant on any single state. There are scenarios where Biden could lose Pennslyvania and Ohio and still win the electoral college, while Trump almost needs to sweep the close states.

    Now granted Biden would need Pennslyvania to get that minimal drama route most of us want.
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  13. #13378
    Ultimate Member Tendrin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kusanagi View Post
    The thing about the swing states/to close to call states is that if polling is accurate (always the big if) Biden isn' t reliant on any single state. There are scenarios where Biden could lose Pennslyvania and Ohio and still win the electoral college, while Trump almost needs to sweep the close states.

    Now granted Biden would need Pennslyvania to get that minimal drama route most of us want.
    Exactly this. Biden has a *lot* more ways to win. Trump has what is essentially one likely path, and it isn't increasingly unlikely, barring rat$$#$ing.

  14. #13379
    Ultimate Member Kirby101's Avatar
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    I don't trust Florida, because DeSantis will cheat and do whatever he can to have Trump win. But Trump cannot win without Florida.
    There came a time when the Old Gods died! The Brave died with the Cunning! The Noble perished locked in battle with unleashed Evil! It was the last day for them! An ancient era was passing in fiery holocaust!

  15. #13380
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kusanagi View Post
    The thing about the swing states/to close to call states is that if polling is accurate (always the big if) Biden isn' t reliant on any single state. There are scenarios where Biden could lose Pennslyvania and Ohio and still win the electoral college, while Trump almost needs to sweep the close states.

    Now granted Biden would need Pennslyvania to get that minimal drama route most of us want.
    In other words, Trump needs to win big, Biden not quite as much. It happened last time, but as much of that was Trump getting lucky at the right time in the right place and the Democrats getting complacent, as much as actual electoral competence.

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