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    Quote Originally Posted by Kirby101 View Post
    I don't find your analysis credible.
    I am willing to put down a money bet that Biden will not start a war with China.
    Name your wager.
    How about loser leaves CBR?

    Here's the thing that you don't quite seem to grasp - if you want to use a deterrent strategy like Biden is attempting, the other side needs to believe that you're willing to fight if they cross a red line. Biden's problem though is that nobody really believes that about him, which means that his threats are not credible and will not work. This means that the Chinese will continue to push further and further, safe in the knowledge that Biden won't go to war with them no matter what, until things get to a point where the situation has gotten so out of hand that Biden will have no choice BUT to fight, lest his political standing at home collapse entirely. This is basically what happened with Obama in Syria.

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    Invincible Member Kirby101's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PwrdOn View Post
    How about loser leaves CBR?

    Here's the thing that you don't quite seem to grasp - if you want to use a deterrent strategy like Biden is attempting, the other side needs to believe that you're willing to fight if they cross a red line. Biden's problem though is that nobody really believes that about him, which means that his threats are not credible and will not work. This means that the Chinese will continue to push further and further, safe in the knowledge that Biden won't go to war with them no matter what, until things get to a point where the situation has gotten so out of hand that Biden will have no choice BUT to fight, lest his political standing at home collapse entirely. This is basically what happened with Obama in Syria.
    This is nothing but massive speculation based on your own stringent view of American foreign policy. And comparing China to Syria is laughable.
    But sure, if we have WWIII with China, I'll leave CBR. What date will you leave?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Xheight View Post
    Revisionism. In Trump's drawback the point was and was communicated to leaders especially in Asia that they would have to stand up their own resistance to China if the US was to help them do it.

    https://www.lowyinstitute.org/public...atter-who-wins
    As has been pointed out, offering to help by not helping is exactly what it sounds like. It's the same strategy he took with Covid and Afghanistan, let someone else handle it and maybe try to take credit if it works out. The only genius he has is appealing to suckers, and he has that in spades. Part of that appeal to suckers is making people think he's just unstable enough that he might buck tradition and do exactly what they want him to do, as opposed to experienced politicians who follow norms and take history and diplomacy into consideration and are unlikely to make rash decisions.

    This works equally well to play on the hopes of Japan, China, or Korea. Strong-men in other Asian countries like Duterte also knew they just had to talk tough and Trump would love them and let them get away with (mass) murder. But it's not strategy, it's chaos and a lack of caring and/or understanding. Which again, folks were hoping would fall in their favor or they could be able to use to their advantage. He wasn't playing 4D chess.

    Quote Originally Posted by JackDaw View Post
    There’s some interesting allegations in today’s Daily Telegraph about some of the US top military.

    One is that Bob Woodward of Watergate fame has written that General Milley told some of his staff not to obey orders from the Trump Whitehouse unless the general cleared them himself. And more damming still the general contacted Chinese military staff and assured them he would warn them if Trump gave certain orders.

    The Telegraph also claimed Trump was deliberately given false info on events on Afghanistan…to deliberately stall on troop withdrawals there, in the hope that when Joe B came in, he could be persuaded to abort withdrawal.

    Whatever one thinks about Trump…that adds up to treachery if the allegations are true.
    Maybe it was, but the question then would be would he be serving the country better if he blindly followed orders and risked literally everything on the stability and forethought of a narcissistic imbecile?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kirby101 View Post
    It's actually the Military stopping an incredibly deranged and dangerous imbecile from starting WWIII.
    Or this.

    Quote Originally Posted by PwrdOn View Post
    If anything, the Biden administration has been beating the war drums against China far louder than Trump did. With Trump you get the sense that he had a certain admiration for Xi and valued their personal relationship, and was just pandering to his base with the hawkish rhetoric. But Biden and his people seem to genuinely believe that they are making the world safe for democracy by continuing to prod the Chinese on a whole host of issues. On the flipside, while the Chinese officials seemed to have a degree of respect or fear of Trump's unpredictability, they clearly have nothing but utter contempt for Biden and have gone out of their way to snub him at every turn. So in that kind of an environment, it's really only a matter of time until someone lets their pride get the better of them and does something rash.
    See ending quote.

    Quote Originally Posted by Xheight View Post
    lawdy...history is replete with awfulness all you and such books do is ask that you keep staring at one spot of it. HYPE.

    Koreans as you may recall were occupied by Japan for 35 years and committed many of the same atrocious things that China would experience including attempts to eradicate Korean culture.

    Meanwhile books have been written on how Japan advanced Korea into the modern nation. Sorry but history is not a zero sum tabulation of GDP vs. human rights.
    What-aboutism when it comes to slavery is either lazy trolling or (and this is common among people who love to believe in the mythical "shining city on a hill", good-guy myth about the US as a or the force for good in the world) staggering and willful ignorance of the damage slavery did and continues to do and its role in our being the country we are today (for both good and ill). We also concentrate a lot on the genocide and land theft of the native peoples. For good reason, we don't exist as a nation without it. It's part of why I get the flag-waving and oath-taking and "USA" chanting. You have to do a lot of work to drown out a conscience that guilty.

    Quote Originally Posted by PwrdOn View Post
    How about loser leaves CBR?

    Here's the thing that you don't quite seem to grasp - if you want to use a deterrent strategy like Biden is attempting, the other side needs to believe that you're willing to fight if they cross a red line. Biden's problem though is that nobody really believes that about him, which means that his threats are not credible and will not work. This means that the Chinese will continue to push further and further, safe in the knowledge that Biden won't go to war with them no matter what, until things get to a point where the situation has gotten so out of hand that Biden will have no choice BUT to fight, lest his political standing at home collapse entirely. This is basically what happened with Obama in Syria.
    I tend to find myself agreeing with you more than most folks on this board, but this is utter nonsense. Biden is where he is because he's the least offensive, least partisan, least passionate, least likely to rock the boat politician in my lifetime. Or at worst, tied with a bunch of other folks who talk a lot but ultimately do nothing or very little. He's Hillary Clinton without the baggage (well, without much baggage aside from an addict son with questionable ties and the rape allegations so by comparison very little baggage).

    I don't even think he'd attempt a proxy war or force a confrontation that comes nowhere near to conflict but shakes up the market or takes focus away from other things he might be interested in, like dealing with Covid and getting the economy here back on track. And China doesn't want that either, we're continuing to buy things from them and borrow money from them and that looks like it's going to continue to be the status quo for some time until we either fall to #2 behind them or they climb over us and probably in some form beyond that. We're China's golden goose. They're not going to war over anything with us, there's no percentage in it for them (or us). Even an unstable and uncaring Trump wouldn't have done that, because ultimately he's a coward and doesn't like making decisions, and Biden's the stale but solid oatmeal President. He's getting hit for doing the rational thing in Afghanistan, he's not going to do something far riskier and with less upside over pride.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kirby101 View Post
    This is nothing but massive speculation based on your own stringent view of American foreign policy. And comparing China to Syria is laughable.
    But sure, if we have WWIII with China, I'll leave CBR. What date will you leave?
    Oh I've been trying to leave for a while now but these wonderful discussions keep roping me back in. If I lose I will do something to get myself permabanned though.

    You keep saying my analysis is wrong, but how does what you're arguing support a different conclusion? The fact that China is not Syria means that they are mostly immune to sanctions and other forms of coercion we typically employ against smaller and weaker countries, so apart from threats of military action there's very little that we can do to force them to the negotiating table. After all, if Syria felt confident enough to flout Obama's red lines, what does China have to fear from Biden? Now of course, from a cynical perspective you could argue that the point of this Cold War 2.0 isn't to actually achieve anything but just to justify shoveling more money into the fires of the military industrial complex, and certainly things have been quite good for defense contractors lately.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Xheight View Post
    and everywhere else for hundreds more everywhere else...so. You convoluted notions of effect are like much of bloated and ideologically driven scholarship - Pseudo social science.
    "Everyone was doing it" doesn't make it less horrible.
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    Quote Originally Posted by numberthirty View Post
    The more you know...

    Thanks for the info!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Xheight View Post
    LOL instability ? according to who? OP-Ed writers with axes to grind?
    You don't have to read books about trump to realize how unstable he is.

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    Invincible Member Kirby101's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PwrdOn View Post
    Oh I've been trying to leave for a while now but these wonderful discussions keep roping me back in. If I lose I will do something to get myself permabanned though.

    You keep saying my analysis is wrong, but how does what you're arguing support a different conclusion? The fact that China is not Syria means that they are mostly immune to sanctions and other forms of coercion we typically employ against smaller and weaker countries, so apart from threats of military action there's very little that we can do to force them to the negotiating table. After all, if Syria felt confident enough to flout Obama's red lines, what does China have to fear from Biden? Now of course, from a cynical perspective you could argue that the point of this Cold War 2.0 isn't to actually achieve anything but just to justify shoveling more money into the fires of the military industrial complex, and certainly things have been quite good for defense contractors lately.
    I am not the one saying the America / China relationship is exactly this narrow, America is always a bad actor and this is the precise situation and only outcome. I see things a little more complex and not as dire as you. What is going to happen? I have no idea, and neither do you. But your prediction of imminent war is close to absurd.

    I do think your last sentence is a part of American foreign policy . But just one part.
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    Ultimate Member Tendrin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChadH View Post
    "Everyone was doing it" doesn't make it less horrible.
    And 'everyone' wasn't doing it. American chattel slavery was uniquely bad in a number of ways, and 'everyone' wasn't doing it anyway.
    Last edited by Tendrin; 09-16-2021 at 08:11 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CSTowle View Post
    I tend to find myself agreeing with you more than most folks on this board, but this is utter nonsense. Biden is where he is because he's the least offensive, least partisan, least passionate, least likely to rock the boat politician in my lifetime. Or at worst, tied with a bunch of other folks who talk a lot but ultimately do nothing or very little. He's Hillary Clinton without the baggage (well, without much baggage aside from an addict son with questionable ties and the rape allegations so by comparison very little baggage).

    I don't even think he'd attempt a proxy war or force a confrontation that comes nowhere near to conflict but shakes up the market or takes focus away from other things he might be interested in, like dealing with Covid and getting the economy here back on track. And China doesn't want that either, we're continuing to buy things from them and borrow money from them and that looks like it's going to continue to be the status quo for some time until we either fall to #2 behind them or they climb over us and probably in some form beyond that. We're China's golden goose. They're not going to war over anything with us, there's no percentage in it for them (or us). Even an unstable and uncaring Trump wouldn't have done that, because ultimately he's a coward and doesn't like making decisions, and Biden's the stale but solid oatmeal President. He's getting hit for doing the rational thing in Afghanistan, he's not going to do something far riskier and with less upside over pride.
    I will agree with this. both countries just have too much to lose and nothing to gain in even a short term war which it most likely would not be. Each nation no matter who is president will give speeches and saber rattle a bit but neither side will take that drastic step. I mean it has to be something beyond the pale, something so drastic that there is no coming back from to make either side consider World War 3 because that is what it will be when two of the most powerful nations in the world come to blows. Other counties will pick sides and get drawn in North and South Korea would explode, of course Russia would not sit around and let it happen with out having a part. Middle Eastern Countries will take advantage of America being busy with a huge war and make moves, I mean it could be the end of the modern world. It is not going to happen over trade, or because China does some bs moves on a couple islands no one cares about or because of butt hurt feelings after a speech and insults.

    Will china and America come to a war? maybe? Will it happen the next couple years? Even with the climate the way it is no it will not.
    Last edited by babyblob; 09-16-2021 at 08:07 PM.
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    Speaking of China (and personally, I'm glad we're finally making a stand against them. China has been pushing us around for years, with spies being caught photographing Naval bases and Chinese spies continuously stealing designs and technology from American companies with seemingly very little in reprisals), Biden has now announced a new security pact between the US, the UK, and Australia in order to counter China's rising influence. Part of this deal will be assisting Australia in purchasing nuclear submarines.


    Of course, this has pissed off not only China, but France, as they had inked a deal in 2016 to build subs for Australia. That deal has now been canceled because of this pact. In retaliation, France canceled a gala that was to be held commemorating the 240th anniversary of the Battle of the Capes.

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    I'm sure the people who told us we have nothing to worry about with voter suppression laws in Georgia and that the problems with them were merely 'overstated' will tell us this is okay too.
    Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger threatened to remove Fulton County's entire elections board after a new leader was appointed in spite of his opposition, the Associated Press reported.

    The Fulton County Board of Commissioners on Wednesday voted to make Cathy Woolard, a former Atlanta City Council president, chair for the county's Board of Registration and Elections.

    Raffensperger called Woolard's instatement a "blatantly political appointment" since she had enrolled as a lobbyist for the Fair Fight Action group started by Democrat Stacey Abrams, who narrowly lost a race for governor against Republican Brian Kemp in 2018. He said in a press release that he would attempt to remove the elections board by invoking a provision in a new Georgia election law.

    "Fulton County needs to think again before appointing someone who is bought and paid for by Stacey Abrams to run elections in Fulton County," Raffensperger said in the release, adding that it would "do incredible damage to the already terrible reputation Fulton has for running
    This seems, I don't know, kinda bad.

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    Astonishing Member JackDaw's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CSTowle View Post





    Maybe it was, but the question then would be would he be serving the country better if he blindly followed orders and risked literally everything on the stability and forethought of a narcissistic imbecile?


    Will you be so relaxed when another general subverts the decisions of a Democrat President and the Republicans trot out the equivalent argument to justify it??

    For all his faults there was no credible reason to believe the Donald was about to launch world war three…or indeed any material military action.

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    Ultimate Member Tendrin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JackDaw View Post
    Will you be so relaxed when another general subverts the decisions of a Democrat President and the Republicans trot out the equivalent argument to justify it??

    For all his faults there was no credible reason to believe the Donald was about to launch world war three…or indeed any material military action.
    People close to him felt otherwise. You might want to consider why that is. That doesn't mean Milley should be free from consequence for what he did. Doing the right thing frequently means accepting the consequences if you need to step outside the rules.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kirby101 View Post
    I am not the one saying the America / China relationship is exactly this narrow, America is always a bad actor and this is the precise situation and only outcome. I see things a little more complex and not as dire as you. What is going to happen? I have no idea, and neither do you. But your prediction of imminent war is close to absurd.

    I do think your last sentence is a part of American foreign policy . But just one part.
    Yeah but maybe you can accept that I know a little bit more about the subject than you do, given that the relationship between the US and China probably isn't something you gave much thought to until recently, and that your ability to live a normal life probably doesn't hinge on the two countries maintaining some kind of modus vivendi.

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