All purpose news and politics thread part VI: This Is Not The Time For Posing

[JackDaw]

There's always some defections between parties each election and so on. That's nothing new. The question is if it was significant. The answer, based on empirical data, is that it's not very decisive a factor.

https://www.thewrap.com/lincoln-proj...sa-experiment/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...oting-in-2020/

Now of course you can argue "every vote counts" and every voting decision matters, and that's true. If we were take that as true however, we need to give up punditry and politicking or speculating about elections and forming grand narratives...which I'm okay with to be honest.

Thanks, that was an interesting read...that (comparing Biden vote with Democrat votes in other recent elections) is a clever way to estimate voter defection.

You’ve persuaded me that switch votes were very probably less important than my gut feeling was telling me.

[Joker]

The virus that hit the East Coast was from Europe. What he could have done to stop the virus is a hard question, since there wasn't the data available. What he did once the virus was here was criminal. It is the most incompetent, negligent, contrarian response to a national emergency in the country's history.

I don't think Trump or any president could have stopped Covid from reaching, or becoming a problem in America. No one else has really been immune to it.

The difference is in what he did once it was here.

[kidfresh512]

Is Jim Jordan getting a ******* after this trump rimjob? Gross

[Malvolio]

"Wilma, where's my Water Buffalo hat?"

"Oh Fred, I lent it to one of our neighbors. He said he needed it for his trip to Washington."

[Tami]

I don't think Trump or any president could have stopped Covid from reaching, or becoming a problem in America. No one else has really been immune to it.

The difference is in what he did once it was here.

He threw paper towels at the impending storm and subsequent flooding and wonders why no one loves him.

[Iron Maiden]

I agree with all the points you made about the ground reality not favouring one narrative or another...

So how can you say with total confidence that some Republican defection wasn’t a significant factor in the final result?

Certainly on UK radio interviews before and after the vote, some habitual Republican voters said they were going to/ did vote for Joe.

In general, since no one is allowed to follow us into the ballot booth and check how we vote, always surprised at subsequent confident claims about what sort of people voted which way.

I think we'll need to see some data on a county by county or even by districts and compare them to 2016. We'd need to see those states that went to Trump in 2016 that flipped to Joe Biden in 2020, specifically Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania. It could be that the Clinton/Kaine ticket really didn't pull in even some of the traditional Democratic votes. Not to be disrespectful but I don't think her VP choice was very inspiring. And then there was the Comey bomshell late in the game in addition to people harping on the emails, which turned into a nothing burger.

[worstblogever]

He threw paper towels at the impending storm and subsequent flooding and wonders why no one loves him.

Speaking of that, a guy threw together a nice listicle of 37 of the dumbest moments from Trump from the past four years, and Paper Towel Free Throws made the list.

https://www.boredpanda.com/things-do...ign=BPFacebook

[Revolutionary_Jack]

I think we'll need to see some data on a county by county or even by districts and compare them to 2016.

That wouldn't be useful. Voter turnout in 2016 was for a conventional non-Pandemic election. 2020 is different.

It could be that the Clinton/Kaine ticket really didn't pull in even some of the traditional Democratic votes.

HRC made many errors in campaigning. She didn't do enough to target African-American voters in Michigan or visit UAW, the union there that has a huge African-American population. She didn't campaign enough in the Rust Belt.

She also had a problem in that she was connected to a period (Bill Clinton's Presidency) that in 2016 and afterwards lost a lot of its sheen that it once had. Whereas Biden benefitted with the Obama years halo still affixed firmly on him.

Not to be disrespectful but I don't think her VP choice was very inspiring.

Yeah Tim Kaine was a bad choice.

And then there was the Comey bomshell late in the game in addition to people harping on the emails, which turned into a nothing burger.

That was bad luck.

[Tendrin]

That was bad luck.

The email scandal and the Comey thing were both deliberate decisions, though. I think suggesting 'bad luck' removes the agency from those who made a point of raising them, you know, as a weapon to hurt her with. Comey's move was just ... incredibly $#4#$34 stupid.

[SquirrelMan]

And I don’t know, or see what you’re talking about. The video was posted, and someone immediately said it wasn’t recent. You then said it’s old, and he said someone already covered that. *shrug*

3 is a bigger number than 2, Joker.

The truth still matters to some of us.

[Jack Dracula]

I hope this video is legit (although it seems) because it's freaking unbelievable.

These guys are both morons and imbeciles as well as Danny Ocean type plotters who come up with plans and schematics.

Notice some were taking computer equipment and cables.

[TheDarman]

But even then, I just don't see why we need to credit or center Republicans as the protagonists of reality.

They’re not, but they did deliver votes. And, as we saw by the margins, literally every vote mattered. There were no “wasted votes”.

Just because Arizona was a red state which turned blue in 2020 doesn't mean that it happened because the McCains pledged fealty to Biden as if this was some Game of Thrones feudal house treaty and not y'know...a democratic election where the people of Arizona make a choice for their future.

The truth of the matter is that the Arizona GOP has turned on McCain. Sinema and Kelly, frankly, made their career by talking up Arizona’s favorite son as their opponent, McSally, continually tied herself to McCain’s antagonist, Donald Trump. I think that Trump has had the long-term effect of pushing people out of the Arizona Republican Party and willing to embrace more moderate (“maverick”) candidates on the Democratic side. That would include Biden, Kelly, and Sinema.

Republicans should view Trump as part of their problem instead of their solution. Otherwise, they might see more slippage in states like Georgia and Arizona. While Trump made them modestly more competitive in the rust belt, it isn’t worth it if Republicans hemorrhage voters elsewhere and states like Texas and North Carolina move away from the GOP.

[VideoGamesandMetalGuy]

Oh, right, I totally agree he was unable to do anything but what he did. It's just crazy to imagine the many ways that could have helped him. It's a good thing he's not a competent fascist.

[shooshoomanjoe]

He threw paper towels at the impending storm and subsequent flooding and wonders why no one loves him.

Was that a pun of how he helped Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria

[Amadeus Arkham]

Republicans should view Trump as part of their problem instead of their solution. Otherwise, they might see more slippage in states like Georgia and Arizona. While Trump made them modestly more competitive in the rust belt, it isn’t worth it if Republicans hemorrhage voters elsewhere and states like Texas and North Carolina move away from the GOP.

I agree. Trump has proven to be a huge burden for them. He cost them the Senate with his election fraud buffoonery, and will likely become take the party down with him. Too bad many of their too intimidated by him to vote to convict. Trump is most likely to escape from justice’s grasp once again and be acquitted leaving him to run again in 2024.