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  1. #13186
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    Quote Originally Posted by Username taken View Post
    I'm legit surprised at what's happened in Pennsylvania. It's a state that was once "comfort food" for democrats. I believe even John Kerry won that state against Bush in '04.

    Now, it's very much in play.
    And on the flip side, states that once were unthinkable for Republicans to lose, are becoming more vunerable.

  2. #13187
    The Undead One The Chou Lives's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Username taken View Post
    The polls are tightening at the moment everywhere at the moment.

    Biden's lead in the swing states isn't as large as it was some weeks ago.

    This is expected in the lead-up to the elections. And it means that Trump still has a real chance at re-election, which is absolutely mortifying.

    Quoted for truth. As the guys I chat with who are still a Trumpers are to the point show such lack of care and ignorance they do not care about democracy, just their party.

    Keeping the hope there. But still I am seeing that Trump may win. If that happens I am not going to bitch. But I will not float when he keeps fucking up, because he would and still will. If they are stupid enough to allow it to happen, itís their damned fault.

    Itís like Bush jr all over again. Which scares me was Jr was a puss pot republican president. But he was more of a decent human being than this guy. ( That is not much of anything really.)

  3. #13188
    Ultimate Member Tendrin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Username taken View Post
    The polls are tightening at the moment everywhere at the moment.

    Biden's lead in the swing states isn't as large as it was some weeks ago.

    This is expected in the lead-up to the elections. And it means that Trump still has a real chance at re-election, which is absolutely mortifying.
    They really aren't. We're seeing statistical noise and fretting, but there's been no real movement in the race. Don't put too much stock in one poll showing a 'narrowed' lead. Biden's lead has been consistent, even with modeling favoring Trump for fear of a 2016 repeat. Now, if continued polls see a narrowing in the same state, then we can fret a bit, but right now that isn't happening to the best of my knowledge.
    Last edited by Tendrin; 10-20-2020 at 05:03 AM.

  4. #13189
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Chou Lives View Post
    Quoted for truth. As the guys I chat with who are still a Trumpers are to the point show such lack of care and ignorance they do not care about democracy, just their party.

    Keeping the hope there. But still I am seeing that Trump may win. If that happens I am not going to bitch. But I will not float when he keeps fucking up, because he would and still will. If they are stupid enough to allow it to happen, it’s their damned fault.

    It’s like Bush jr all over again. Which scares me was Jr was a puss pot republican president. But he was more of a decent human being than this guy. ( That is not much of anything really.)
    Bush at least understood how to run government, and that he was the president of every American. If he were never president, I could understand why people enjoy his company.

  5. #13190
    The Undead One The Chou Lives's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Cool Thatguy View Post
    Bush at least understood how to run government, and that he was the president of every American. If he were never president, I could understand why people enjoy his company.
    True. When Obama won, he was pretty chill about it.

    Goes to show some know how to act, sadly not the current GOP.

  6. #13191

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    Quote Originally Posted by Username taken View Post
    The polls are tightening at the moment everywhere at the moment.
    Link me to some that are, because I am not seeing or hearing that. In fact, seeing the opposite in the majority of them.
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  7. #13192

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    Quote Originally Posted by ChangingStation View Post
    Pennsylvania seems to be slipping to Trump. One of the latest polls means there's a 3 point down difference, meaning Biden is only up four points. (7 last week from the same poll).
    CNN has Biden at his largest lead in Pennsylvania to date, at 8 points.
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/20/polit...***/index.html

    Other polls have him up even more than that.
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  8. #13193
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tendrin View Post
    They really aren't. We're seeing statistical noise and fretting, but there's been no real movement in the race.
    Like many people, I'm still traumatized from 2016.

    And we can't rule out a Trump win. My paranoia won't allow me too.
    "Obviously not all conservatives are racists/bigots but all racists/bigots claim to be conservative"- Unknown

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  9. #13194
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    Quote Originally Posted by worstblogever View Post
    Link me to some that are, because I am not seeing or hearing that. In fact, seeing the opposite in the majority of them.
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6861.html

    I was looking at the poll averages.
    "Obviously not all conservatives are racists/bigots but all racists/bigots claim to be conservative"- Unknown

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  10. #13195
    Ultimate Member Kirby101's Avatar
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    As in 2016, we are talking about Trump eking out an Electoral win because of one or two States. And his path to victory is narrower. It's a strange thing that we know that he will lose the popular vote by a much wider amount than last time. We accept that the American voter will reject this man. Yet we talk about him winning because of shenanigans by the GOP in a key State or two. We are treating our country's election like it can be won by a bad call by the refs in a football game. And I don't want to hear any bs about that is the system. The EC was NOT set up so that a person that loses the vote can be elected, twice. It is a flaw, the founders got this one wrong.
    Last edited by Kirby101; 10-20-2020 at 06:14 AM.
    There came a time when the Old Gods died! The Brave died with the Cunning! The Noble perished locked in battle with unleashed Evil! It was the last day for them! An ancient era was passing in fiery holocaust!

  11. #13196

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    Quote Originally Posted by Username taken View Post
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6861.html

    I was looking at the poll averages.
    Don't use realclearpolitics. They skew their data and intentionally by leaving out polls that don't make it look like a Republican is doing as badly as they might be, or include an obscure right-leaning poll to do so. It's deliberate.

    Check 270toWin and/or FiveThirtyEight for poll data. They literally include the accuracy rating for whatever poll they've got at 538.
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  12. #13197
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    Quote Originally Posted by worstblogever View Post
    Don't use realclearpolitics. They skew their data and intentionally by leaving out polls that don't make it look like a Republican is doing as badly as they might be, or include an obscure right-leaning poll to do so. It's deliberate.

    Check 270toWin and/or FiveThirtyEight for poll data. They literally include the accuracy rating for whatever poll they've got at 538.
    Thanks.

    I was wondering why realclearpolitics averages always looked somewhat biased.
    "Obviously not all conservatives are racists/bigots but all racists/bigots claim to be conservative"- Unknown

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  13. #13198

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    Quote Originally Posted by Username taken View Post
    Thanks.

    I was wondering why realclearpolitics averages always looked somewhat biased.
    The first time somebody told me this, I wasn't sure if they were making it up, but they showed their work, and then when you look around the RCP website to see the articles...

    That place is not a neutral data source. A lot of conservative talking points outside of the poll pages.
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  14. #13199
    Ultimate Member Gray Lensman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kirby101 View Post
    As in 2016, we are talking about Trump eking out an Electoral win because of one or two States. And his path to victory is narrower. It's a strange thing that we know that he will lose the popular vote by a much wider amount than last time. We accept that the American voter will reject this man. Yet we talk about him winning because of shenanigans by the GOP in a key State or two. We are treating our country's election like it can be won by a bad call by the refs in a football game. And I don't want to hear any bs about that is the system. The EC was NOT set up so that a person that loses the vote can be elected, twice. It is a flaw, the founders got this one wrong.
    I don't think the founders envisioned so many states, or not so many with low populations compared to the few with truly high ones.
    "Theory: The Phoenix doesn't corrupt the characters, it corrupts the authors." Gambit, King of Thieves

  15. #13200
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    It really should just be the popular vote. I mean, why is it not the majority of americans who get to decide who their president is? It's absurd and it has cost us dearly several times.

    Just because we now look back fondly on the "quiet dignity" of Dubya, doesn't mean he was a good president who didn't win a stolen election.

    If republicans want to win, maybe they should run on policies that appeal to more voters! And if you can't win that way, maybe your politics are outmoded. What a fucking wild idea!

    While we're at it, lets do away with gerrymandering districts. Just cut that shit out completely.
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